Beyond Sustainability: Designing our Cities for Resiliency in the face of Global Warming, Peak Oil, and Unsustainable Population Growthby Craig Applegath, FRAICCOHOS EVAMY integratedesign

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Today’s Presentation Agenda:The Un-holy trinity of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Unsustainable Population GrowthResilience Planning and Designing for ResilienceResilient Design PrinciplesResilient Planning and Design Strategieswww.ResilientCity.orgNext StepsIntroduction

Resilient Design Principles

Resilient Planning and Design Strategies

A LOOK AT THE NUMBERSIn 1960 there were 4 Category 5 events – world-wideIn 2008 there were 40 Category 5 Weather related natural disastersMeteorological and climatologically events have nearly doubled since 1980In 2008 Economic loses from these disasters was $200 Bil (the most expensive year ever recorded)Source: Wikipedia CommonsHurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, 2008Near Galveston, TexasIntroduction

In 1960 there were 4 Category 5 events – world-wide

In 2008 there were 40 Category 5 Weather related natural disasters

Meteorological and climatologically events have nearly doubled since 1980

In 2008 Economic loses from these disasters was $200 Bil (the most expensive year ever recorded)

Source: WorldWatch Institute Source: Source: WorldWatch Institute Introduction

+ Peak Oil and+ Population GrowthIntroduction

Peak Oil

Billons of Barrels per YearSource: Kelly Doran When will oil peak?Peak Oil

DEMANDSUPPLYPRICEMillion Barrels/DaySource: theoildrum.comWhat happens when oil peaks?Peak Oil

Introduction

Peak Oil: Key ImpactsMuch higher cost of oil and all fuels“Cars take the off-ramp”Much greater need for pubic mass transitRe-localization of agriculture / food productionRe-localization of manufacturingTransformation and/or death of suburbsPeak Oil

Population GrowthPopulation

Key MetricsCurrent Population = 6.78 Billion (US Census May 2009) Growth rate per year = 80.2 Million (2008)Projected by 2050 = 9.0 Billion ?Growth rate in 2008 = 1.1 %Population

Source: Wikipedia CommonsPOPULATION GROWTH RATEPopulation

Source: Wikipedia CommonsPOPULATION GROWTH – (IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS)Past and projected population growth on different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and its scale is millions of people.Population

Population: Key ImpactsGreater use of oil / fossil fuel, and therefore…Greater production of CO2 / Greenhouse GasesGreater demands on all resources, and therefore…Resource shortages, and therefore… migrating populations, and therefore…Significant in-migration to cities across the world…Population

“So…what can we do about this? Is there anything we can do as architects, planners, landscape architects and engineers that will make a difference?”

Antonio Gomez-PalacioEarle ArneyCraig ApplegathPeter HowardBrian WatkinsonLyle ScottResilientCity Discussion Group

PEAK OILFOOD STRESSCOST OF OIL$PUSH UP $ CO2 CLIMATE CHANGEPOPULATION GROWTHSTRESSCO2 The Un-holy Trinity

Integrated understanding of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Population GrowthImpacts flow both ways Need a new conceptual frameworkKey Issues

Resilience!Resilience

Resilience:“1. (Of a substance etc.) recoiling; springing back; resuming its original shape after bending, stretching, compression, etc.” 2. (of a person) readily recovering from a shock, depression etc. Source: The Canadian Oxford English Dictionary, page 1227Resilience

Resilience:“Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to still remain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” Source: B. Walker et al, ‘Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social-ecological Systems’, Ecology and Society 9 (2) p. 5Resilience

Resilient to What?Environmental stresses of Climate ChangeTransformation of our economy by Peak OilEconomic and social pressures of population migrationResilience

Achieving Resilience:Principles+StrategiesResilience

Resilient Planning and Design Principles:Carbon neutralityRedundancy of SystemsDiversity of SystemsDurabilityLocal Self-SufficiencyResponsiveness and ConnectednessResilientCity Principles

Resilient City Planning Strategies:Transform CirculationReduce Energy Requirements of Existing FabricRe-localize key functionsIncrease Density / Decrease Height / Mixed UseResilientCity Planning Strategies

Resilient Building Design Strategies:Reduce Energy and Carbon Input Requirements Re-localize Key Processes and MaterialsDesign for Flexibility and Re-use Design for DurabilityDesign for Integration with EnvironmentPlanning and Design

Tools for further developing strategies and good exemplars?

www.ResilientCity.orgResilientCity.org Website

HOME PAGEResilientCity.org Website

ResilientCity.org Goals:1. Raise Awareness2. Shift thinking : sustainability >>> resilience3. Provide Resources to develop solutions

RESOURCESResilientCity.org Website

ESSENTIAL WEB LINKSResilientCity.org Website

ESSENTIAL BOOKSResilientCity.org Website

ResilientCity BLOGResilientCity.org Website

DESIGN COMPETITIONResilientCity.org Website

Mike Haggerty, Brooklyn, NYScenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Robert Shepherd, San Francisco, CAScenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block

Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block

Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building

Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building

“OK…But what do we do about this when we get back to the office?”

Five Suggestions:Stop thinking only about the impact we are having on the environment; and… Start also thinking about how we will deal with the impacts of environment as it starts to push back!Start looking over the horizon to the time when the economics of Peak Oil will change how our cities function – creating an urgent need for re-localization of food and manufacturing.Start thinking about how our cities will deal with the huge in-migrations of environmental refugees.Take advantage of our ResilientCity.org resources, and please share your ideas with us!

“The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew.” Abraham Lincoln

For more information about the planning and design of resilient cities:www.ResilientCity.orgResilientCity.org Website

Thank you!Craig ApplegathCOHOS EVAMY integratedesign

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food

Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block

Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building

Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building

Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building