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Weekly Market Snapshot
Home October 23, 2009
Market Commentary
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by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
6363 Woodway Dr
Services The economic data remained mixed, but were consistent with a moderate Suite 870
economic recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book, the anecdotal summary of conditions Houston, TX 77057
Newsletters from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, noted “stabilization or modest improvement Phone: 713-244-3030
Fax: 713-513-5669
in many sectors” since the previous report. Reports of gains continued to
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Market View outnumber declines, “but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as
either small or scattered.”
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There was some improvement in mortgage lending related to the first-time
Securities are offered through
homebuyers tax credit, but bank lending was restrained otherwise. Commercial RAYMOND JAMES
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real estate, which tends to lag in the economic cycle, was reported as the FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.
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weakest sector, with conditions described as “weak” or “deteriorating” across all
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Fed districts.
Earnings reports tended to come in better than expected – as usual – but with
improvement generally due to cost-cutting efforts rather than top-line growth. The
dollar weakened further and the price of crude oil rose to over $80 per barrel.
Next week, there are several potentially market-moving data releases, but the
highlight will be the gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the third quarter of
2009. This is the advance estimate, based on incomplete data and projections for
several components, so there is the usual high degree of uncertainty in the
headline figure. The early consensus appears to be about a 3.0% annual rate –
boosted partly by the “Cash for Clunkers” car-buying program – but, realistically,
we could see a headline number anywhere between 2% and 4%. Fresher
economic data will arrive in the following week.
Indices
Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 10081.31 10062.95 14.87%
NASDAQ 2165.29 2173.29 37.30%
S&P 500 1092.91 1096.56 21.00%
MSCI EAFE 1600.6 1602.32 29.35%
Russell 2000 613.38 623.34 22.81%
Consumer Money Rates
Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 4.50
Fed Funds 0.25 1.50
30-year mortgage 5.15 5.92
Currencies
Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.661 1.630
Dollars per Euro 1.501 1.288
Japanese Yen per Dollar 91.380 98.620
http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx[10/26/2009 8:36:40 AM]

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.049 1.250
Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.941 13.572
Commodities
Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 80.84 65.85
Gold 1057.70 741.90
Bond Rates
Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 1.00 0.98
10-year treasury 3.47 3.36
10-year municipal (TEY) 5.14 4.69
Treasury Yield Curve – 10/23/2009
S&P Sector Performance Charts – 10/23/2009
Economic Calendar
October 26 — Chicago Fed National Activity Index
(September)
Treasury Note Auction – 4½-year TIPS
October 27 — S&P/Case Shiller Home Prices (August)
Consumer Confidence (October)
Treasury Note Auction – 2-year notes
http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx[10/26/2009 8:36:40 AM]

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX
October 28 — Durable Goods Orders (September)
New Home Sales (September)
Treasury Note Auction – 5-year notes
October 29 — Jobless Claims (week ending October 24)
Real GDP (3Q09, advance estimate)
October 30 — Employment Cost Index (3Q09)
Personal Income and Spending
(September)
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
(October)
November 2 — ISM Manufacturing Index (October)
Motor Vehicle Sales (October)
November 3/4 — FOMC Meeting
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global
investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different
financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered
reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any
trends mentioned will continue in the future. Municipal bond interest is not subject to federal income
tax but may be subject to AMT, state or local taxes. Investing involves risk and investors may incur
a profit or a loss.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to
maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are
issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal
government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of
the US government.
Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for
investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price
fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be
subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.
Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue
bonds.
Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do
not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of
close of business October 22nd, 2009.
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