Market research


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Market research

  1. 1. MARKET RESEARCHPrepared By :-Guided By :-Prof. Karan Jagani
  2. 2. OUTLINE• What is Market Research?• Advantages, Disadvantages & Uses• Importance and Need• Types and Difference• Procedure• Methods• Criteria to select a research• When not to conduct• Sectors which use MR in India• Interpretation• Case Study• Our Idea
  3. 3. “It ain’t the things we don’tknow that gets us introuble. It’s the things weknow that ain’t so.”Artemus Ward
  4. 4. WHAT IS MR?• Market research provides important information to identify andanalyze the market need, market size and competition.• Market research, which includes social and opinion research, is thesystematic gathering and interpretation of information aboutindividuals or organizations using statistical and analytical methodsand techniques of the applied social sciences to gain insight orsupport decision making.• It is a very important component of business strategy.
  5. 5. ADVANTAGES OF MR• Market research guides your communication with current andpotential customers.• Market research helps firms to discover consumers opinions on ahuge range of issues, e.g. views on products’ prices, packaging,recent advertising campaigns, indentify competition, indentifyopportunities/gaps in the market and reduce the loss of thebusiness.• Market research helps you identify opportunities in the marketplace.• Market research helps you minimize risks.• Market research measures your reputation.• Market research helps you plan ahead.• Market research can help you establish trends.
  6. 6. DISADVANTAGES OF MR• Research Costs: Market research can be costly depending on themethods chosen by the company.• Time: Time is directly related to the costs, as the longer theresearch takes, the more costly it may turn out for the company.• Limited Volunteers: Market research is primarily based on people’sopinions and views of a single product or service. The lack ofrespondents may also be a negative factor for a company’s marketresearch.
  7. 7. IMPORTANCE AND NEED OFMR• Analyzing the impact and effectiveness of businesses.• To analyze what are the specifications of the buyers and what arethe goods that appeal to them.• To find out what are the price specifications of the buyers.• To assess the usefulness, demand and likelihood of a specificproduct in varied demographics.• To assess appeal of a product according to customer’s age,location, gender and income.
  8. 8. Market research
  9. 9. TYPESMarket ResearchPrimary Research Secondary ResearchQualitativeQuantitative
  10. 10. PRIMARY RESEARCH• Primary research refers to original or custom research – gatheringinformation from original sources• It is usually proprietary to a client and not made available to themarketplace• Primary research involves finding out new information. It finds theanswers to specific questions for a particular purpose. Theseenquiries may take the form of direct questioning.
  11. 11. PRIMARY RESEARCH• It may include face-to-face surveys, postal or online questionnaires,telephone interviews or focus groups.• This type of direct contact with people is valuable as it gives specificfeedback to the questions asked.• Although primary research can be expensive and time-consuming,the up-to-date and relevant data collected can give organizations acompetitive advantage. This is because their rivals will not have hadaccess to it.
  12. 12. QUANTITATIVE MARKETRESEARCH• Quantitative research is simply defined as research that involvesstatistical analysis and mathematics. As such, quantitative researchshould be used whenever you need to identify a numerical output .• Quantitative research presents information in a numeric way, suchas graphs, tables or charts that can be used to analyze theinformation.• Quantitative techniques are applied to generate meaningful metricsthat clearly define the magnitude of a response.
  13. 13. QUALITATIVE MARKETRESEARCH• Qualitative market research differs from quantitative marketresearch in that it is not numerically-based, but opinion-based.• Qualitative research can be used to explain or understandquantitative research, as well as offering insight to help you improveyour proposition, by uncovering how people feel and what they thinkabout your product, and identifying trends within the written orspoken work.• Qualitative research methods strive to understand how people feelor to tap their creative juices.
  14. 14. COMMONLY USED METHODSQualitative Methods Quantitative MethodsFocus groups (ideal size 4-6 people) Telephone interviewsMini groups (fewer people or shorterduration)Self administered mailsurveysOne-on-one in-depth personal interviews Online sources – via emailor websitesPaired in-depth interviews Electronic surveys –compiled on disketteAdvisory panels Real time moment-to-moment(primarily for mediaresearch)
  15. 15. QUALITATIVE Vs QUANTITATIVEQualitative QuantitativeType of Question Probing SimpleSample Size Small LargeInformation per respondent High Low(ish)Questioner’s skill High Low(ish)Analyst’s skill High HighType of analysis Subjective, Objective,Interpretative StatisticalAbility to replicate Low HighAreas probed Attitudes ChoicesFeelings FrequencyMotivations Demographics
  16. 16. Which is best?• Quantitative analysis will give you a hard, cold answer as to theattractiveness of the market, the probability of success or the finaloutcome of your business opportunity.• Qualitative analysis will help you to add color to your insight andbuild a bigger picture of the scenario you are looking at, which willbe more useful when creating your marketing materials anddeveloping your idea, working out your position in the market, yourpricing – and crucially, what sets you apart from the competition.• Ideally, you need a mixture of both quantitative and qualitativeresearch to gain a reliable picture of the market and to defineand hone your proposition.
  17. 17. Secondary research• Secondary research (or desk research) gathers existing informationthrough available information sources. Secondary researchexamples include:– Information on the internet– Existing market research results– Existing data from your own stock lists and customer database– Information from agencies such as industry bodies, governmentagencies, libraries and local councils.• Secondary research may be quicker to carry out but may give lessspecific outcomes for the topic in question.
  19. 19. DEFINING THE PROBLEM ANDOBJECTIVESDistinguish between the research type needed e.g.• - exploratory• - descriptive• - causalCOMMENT :If a problem is vaguely defined, the results can have little bearing onthe key issues
  20. 20. DEVELOPING THE RESEARCH PLANDecide on :-• Budget• Data sources• Research approaches• Research instruments• Sampling planCOMMENT:The plan needs to be decided upfront but flexible enough toincorporate changes/ iterations
  21. 21. COLLECTING THEINFORMATION• Information is collected according to the plan (N.B. it is oftendone by external firms)COMMENT :This phase is the most costly and the most liable to error
  22. 22. ANALYSING THE INFORMATION• Statistical manipulation of the data collected (e.g. regression) orsubjective analysis of focus groupsCOMMENT:Significant difference in type of analysis according to whethermarket research is quantitative or qualitative
  23. 23. PRESENTING THE FINDINGS• Overall conclusions to be presented rather than overwhelmingstatistical methodologies.Comment :Can take various forms:Oral presentation ,written conclusions supported by analysisand data tables
  24. 24. INTERPRETATION OF DATA1. Data Cleaning - Data often arrives in a messy,disorganized fashion. Data points may be duplicated orimproperly entered. It may need to be collated andprepared for entry into a database.2. Quality of Data Audit - The quality of data is importantto ensure results you can use to better understand thebusiness model.3. Analysis of Missing Observations - Determining whatvariables may be missing from the data, why they aremissing and what effect they might have on the integrityof the analysis.
  25. 25. INTERPRETATION OF DATA4. Analysis of Extreme Observations - Outlying datapoints are important in many ways and we can ensurethey are not ignored when performing analysis of data.5. Analysis of Homogeneity - We provide comprehensiveanalysis of data points to find common threads that canhelp you determine where best to move assets and howbest to make key business decisions.
  26. 26. 1. Surveys2. Focus groups3. Personal interviews4. Observations5. Field trialsFive Basic Methods of MarketResearch
  27. 27. Survey method• The Survey method is the technique of gathering data byasking questions to people who are thought to havedesired information.A formal list of questionnaire is prepared. Generally anon disguised approach is used.The respondents are asked questions on theirdemographic interest opinion.
  28. 28. Types of survey methods.Survey Methods Classified by Mode of Administrationi. Telephone Methodsa. Traditional Telephone Interviewsb. Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing(CATI)ii. Personal Methodsa. Personal In-home Interviewsb. Mall-Intercept Personal Interviewsc. Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI)iii. Mail Methodsa. Mail Interviewsiv. Electronic Methodsa. E-mail Surveys b. Internet Surveys
  29. 29. Social Networking andSurveysSocial networking sites:-• Can be used to gather useful information inunderstanding consumer decisions• Provide a new way for marketers to conductmarket research.
  30. 30. Advantages of Survey Method• Broader range of information than direct observation,experimentation.• Effective to produce information on socio-economic characteristics,attitudes, opinions, motives etc .• Information for planning product features, advertising media, salespromotion, channels of distribution and other marketing variables.• Faster questioning .• Questions are simple to administer.• Reliable data.• The variability of results is reduced.• Relatively simple to analyze, quote and interrelate the data obtained.
  31. 31. Disadvantages of SurveyMethod• Unwillingness of respondents to provide information.• Inability of the respondents to provide information.This may happen due to :a ) Lack of knowledgeb ) Lapse of memory• Human Biases of the respondents . for eg: “Ego”
  32. 32. Benefits of a PersonalInterview• Rapport• More in-depth– Probes– Follow-up– Tests• Longer• Yield more information• Respondents can be carefully selected, reasons for nonresponseexplored• Allow you greater flexibility
  33. 33. Evaluation of Survey Methods• Flexibility of Data Collection• Diversity of Questions• Use of Physical Stimuli• Sample Control• Control of the Data Collection Environment• Quantity of Data• Response Rate• Social Desirability/ Sensitive Information• Potential for Interviewer Bias• Speed and cost
  34. 34. Criteria for Selecting a ResearchSupplier• What is the reputation of the supplier?• Do they complete projects on schedule?• Are they known for maintaining ethical standards?• Are they flexible?• Are their research projects of high quality?• What kind and how much experience does the supplier have? Has the firmhad experience with projects similar to this one?• Do the suppliers personnel have both technical and non-technicalexpertise?• Can they communicate well with the client?Competitive bids should be obtained and compared on the basis of quality aswell as price.
  35. 35. Value of Market Research ShouldExceed Its Estimated CostsValueDecreased uncertaintyIncreased likelihood ofcorrect decisionImproved marketingperformance and resultinghigher profitsCostsResearch expendituresDelay of marketingdecision and possibledisclosure of information torivalsPossible erroneousresearch results
  36. 36. WHEN AND HOW NOT TOCONDUCT MARKET RESEARCH• Lack of resources• Closed mindset• Research results not actionable• Vague objectives• Cost outweighs benefit• Poor timing
  37. 37. Occasion Comments/ExampleLack of resourcesResearch results notactionableClosed mindsetLate timing re:processPoor timing re:marketplaceVague objectivesCost outweighsbenefitIf quantitative research is needed, it is not worthdoing unless a statistically significant sample canbe usedWhere psychographic data (for example) is usedwhich won’t help the company form firm actionsWhen research is used only as a rubber stamp of apreconceived ideaWhen research results come too late toinfluence the decisionIf a product is in the ‘decline’ phase (e.g. records)there’s little point in researching new productvarietiesMarket research cannot be helpful unless it isprobing a particular issueThe expected value of the information shouldoutweigh the cost of gathering the dataWHEN AND HOW NOT TO CONDUCT MARKETRESEARCH
  38. 38. Market Research in India• The market research industry in India is 35 years oldand its turnover is about Rs 325 crore.• In the last few years, the market has been growing atabout 10%.• Research expertise available in India is truly on the topof the rung, and methodologies used in India arecomparable with the best in the world.• This is part of the reason that India is heading towardsbecoming an outsourcing hub in market research for therest of the world.
  39. 39. • Automobile Sectors• Food & Drug Sectors• Pharmaceutical Industries• Indian Banks• IT Sectors• Indian Television Industry• Retail Sectors• Technology Sectors• Textile Sectors• Infrastructure SectorsList of Sectors/ Industries thatuse MR44%21%13%9%4%4% 5%ManufacturingCompaniesService companiesRetailers andwholesalersAd.agenciesPublic sectorNon-ad. researchagenciesOther
  40. 40. Problem Definition – an exampleIncompleteProblem DefinitionBetter Problem Definition1. Product Refrigerator Refrigerator – Ordinary & Frost free2. Market West Zone West Zone with spl ref to Mumbai, Nashik,Pune & Nagpur3. MarketSegment---- Office & Institutional Sector & NOTHouseholds4. Current MktShareNot available 12% over all3% in Office & Inst5. Problem Sales not pickingup at the rate atwhich they shouldLast year our growth 5%Industry grew by 25%6. MR Problem To find out thereasonTo find out the reasons for shortfall in ourgrowth rate in office & inst segments &suggest specific strategies followed byBrands A & B
  41. 41. Case StudyMeasuring Customer Satisfactionwith the “Contact Management”System
  42. 42. 42Background & ObjectivesBackground:ABC Company, a manufacturer of consumer electronics, wants totrack customer satisfaction with their contact management and see ifthere are improvements from year to year.Questions:• Overall, how satisfied are consumers with ABC Company as amanufacturer of consumer electronics?• How likely are consumers to buy products manufactured by ABCCompany again in the future?• Would you recommend ABC Company’s products to a friend orcolleague who was considering buying a consumer electronicsproduct?• What are the consumers’ reasons for contactingABC Company?
  43. 43. 43Respondent Profile –Consumer Profile% of RespondentsAge 2007 2008Younger than 25 years of age 8% 1%25–34 12% 18%35–44 19% 28%45–54 25% 24%55–64 14% 17%65 years of age or older 13% 11%Prefer not to say 9% 1%% of RespondentsEducation 2007 2008Less than high school 1% 2%High school/graduate 36% 17%Technical/trade school/some college 23% 29%College graduate 29% 36%Masters degree 5% 11%Doctorate degree 1% 5%Prefer not to say 4% 2%2008 vs. 2007:Slightly olderrespondent base2008 vs. 2007: Slightlymore educatedrespondent base
  44. 44. 44% Use For Questions % Use For ComplaintsCommunication Method 2007 2008 2007 2008Call a toll-free number 82% 87% 87% 89%Visit the Web site 14% 11% 5% 2%Send an e-mail 4% 3% 8% 9%Send a fax 0% 0% 0% 0%Mail a letter 0% 0% 0% 1%When you have a question about a product, what ONE methodof communication do you MOST prefer?When you have a complaint about a product, what ONEmethod of communication do you MOST prefer?“Call a toll-free number”is the most preferredmethod of contact forboth questions andcomplaints.Respondent Profile –Method of Contact
  45. 45. 4548%35%16%26%4% 6% 5%11%27%22%0%20%40%60%80%100%Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neither Satisfied norDissatisfiedSomewhatDissatisfiedVery Dissatisfied2007 2008%ofcustomersNow, thinking about your overall satisfaction, how satisfied are youwith ABC Company as a manufacturer of consumer electronics?Overall SatisfactionMigration from “VerySatisfied” to “SomewhatSatisfied”
  46. 46. 4632%21%26%32%10%21%13%10%18% 17%0%20%40%60%80%100%Definitely Would Probably Would Might or Might Not Probably Would Not Definitely Would Not2007 2008%ofcustomersHow likely are you to buy products manufactured by ABC Companyagain in the future?Repurchase IntentionMigration from “DefinitelyWould” to “ProbablyWould” repurchase
  47. 47. 4740%26% 25% 26%4%19%6%11%25%18%0%20%40%60%80%100%Definitely Would Probably Would Might or Might Not Probably Would Not Definitely Would Not2007 2008%ofcustomersWould you recommend ABC Company’s products to a friend or colleaguewho was considering buying a consumer electronics product?Recommend IntentionMigration from “DefinitelyWould” to “Might or MightNot” recommend
  48. 48. 48% All Reasons for Contact % Primary Reason for ContactReason for Contact 2007 2008 2007 2008Request for repair of product 70% 76% 55% 48%Question on how to use/set-up/work somethingon the product21% 23% 13% 10%Complaint about the product 32% 55% 13% 21%Request for information on a specific product 17% 35% 9% 8%Ordering a product or part 18% 30% 6% 10%Question about status of order/shipment 8% 13% 3% 2%Request for information on the company 5% 7% 1% 1%Other (Specify) 1% 1% 0% 1%Question about a promotion or contest 0% 2% 0% 0%Complaint about advertising 0% 2% 0% 0%Complaint about a promotion or contest 0% 1% 0% 0%Reason for ContactWhat are the key reasons you contacted ABC Company?Of all the reasons, what is your primary reason for contact?“Request for repair of product” is the primaryreason for contact both in 2007 and 2008.
  49. 49. 49Product % of 2007 RespondentsTV/DVD/VCR 43%Other 9%Microwave 7%Peripherals 5%Audio 2%Telephone 1%Product About WhichContactingAbout what product were you contacting ABC Company?(Asked only for those with product related reason)Product % of 2008 RespondentsWashing machine 37%Microwave 21%Refrigerator 18%Dryer 17%Air conditioner 6%DVD/Video/LCD Monitor 2%
  50. 50. 50Number of Reasons forContact52%23%34%41%9%21%5%17%0%20%40%60%80%100%1 2 3 4+2007 2008%ofcustomersNumber of reasons for contactAverage number ofreasons for contact2.3 (1.7 in 2007)Minimum = 1 (1 in 2007)Maximum = 7 (7 in 2007)Average number ofreasons for contact2.3 (1.7 in 2007)Minimum = 1 (1 in 2007)Maximum = 7 (7 in 2007)Migration from 1 reasonfor contact to multiplereasons for contact
  51. 51. 5136%52%63%48%0%20%40%60%80%100%Yes No2007 2008%ofcustomersContacted OthersPrior to contacting ABC Company, did you contact anyone else at the retail store,dealer or distributor about your primary question, request or problem?A higher percent ofrespondents contactedothers prior to contactingABC Company.
  52. 52. 52Satisfaction is Impacted byContacts to Others50% 49%30%43%11%18%37%28%39%33% 34%29%0%20%40%60%80%100%Satisfied Mollified DissatisfiedContacted Others (2007)Did Not Contact Others (2007)Contacted Others (2008)Did Not Contact Others (2008)%ofcustomersNote: “Satisfied” = Top box; “Mollified” = Middle 2 boxes ; “Dissatisfied” = Bottom boxSatisfaction with Action TakenSatisfaction with action taken ismuch higher if the respondentsdid not contact others prior tocontacting ABC Company.
  53. 53. 53% All methods of contact % Primary method of contactMethod of contact 2007 2008 2007 2008Called the toll-free number 95% 93% 82% 69%Visited the Web site 18% 35% 6% 9%Called a long distance number 17% 10% 5% 7%Sent an e-mail 9% 10% 3% 12%Other 4% 8% 3% 5%Mailed a letter 4% 2% 1% 0%Sent a fax 3% 4% 0% 0%Participated in a Web chat session 0% 1% 1% 2%Method of Contact“Call a toll-freenumber” is the mainmethod of contact forboth questions andcomplaints.What are the methods you used to contact ABC Company?Of all the methods you used, what is your primary method for contact?
  54. 54. 5475%27%24%19% 20% 18%46%0%20%40%60%80%100%Transferred once Transferred morethan oncePut on hold for anexcessive amountof time beforereachingDifficulty decidingwhat to select inthe press 1,press 2..Put on hold for anexcessive amountof time during thecallExcessivenumber of ringsbefore phone wasansweredNo DifficultiesWhen you called ABC Company about your primary question, request orproblem, did you experience any of the following difficulties—yes or no?%ofcustomerssaying“yes”Telephone Experience% Experienced some sortof telephone difficulties54% in 2008% Experienced some sortof telephone difficulties54% in 2008
  55. 55. 5557%21%51%12%54%24%41%27%48%27%46%27%52%27%45%31%0%20%40%60%80%100%Professionalism Knowledge Responsiveness* Authority to answer myquestion or resolve myproblem*% very satisfied (2007)% somewhat/very dissatisfied (2007)% very satisfied (2008)% somewhat/very dissatisfied (2008)Satisfaction WithRepresentative%ofcustomersHow satisfied are you with the [professionalism/knowledge/responsiveness/authority tosolve your problem] of the representative?Note: Only asked of customers who indicated that either called a toll-free number or called a long distance number was their primary method of contact* Key drivers of satisfaction with action taken in 2007 and 2008Compared to 2007, satisfaction withrepresentative went down forall attributes in 2008.
  56. 56. 5647%33%48%24%47%40% 42%32%53%26%50%23%52%44%39%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%Timeliness* Helpfulness*/** Clearness*/** Follow Through*% very satisfied (2007)% somewhat/very dissatisfied (2007)% very satisfied (2008)% somewhat/very dissatisfied (2008)Satisfaction With Response%ofcustomersHow satisfied are you with the [timeliness/helpfulness/clearness/follow through] of the response?* Key drivers of satisfaction with action taken in 2007** Key drivers of satisfaction with action taken in 2008Satisfaction with followthrough declinedsignificantly in 2008.
  57. 57. 57Time to Respond53%36%28%42%0%12%8% 7%13%4%0%20%40%60%80%100%Immediately Within 7 days 8-14 days 15 - 28 days Over 28 days2007 2008%ofcustomersTime to final responseNo final action48% in 200750% in 2008Average time to final responseWithin 2 days in 2007 & 2008No final action48% in 200750% in 2008Average time to final responseWithin 2 days in 2007 & 2008Have you received a final response to your primary question, request or problem—yes or no?How long did it take for you to receive a final response to your primary question, request orproblem?Migration from“Immediately” to“Within 7 days”
  58. 58. 5855%45%14%26%5%14%4%8% 10%3%12%4%0%20%40%60%80%100%1 Contact 2 Contacts 3 Contacts 4 Contacts 5 Contacts 6+ Contacts2007 2008%ofcustomersNumber of contactsNumber of ContactsIn total, how many times did you contact ABC Company in an attempt to have yourprimary question, request or problem resolved?Average number of contacts2.5 in 20072.7 in 2008Average number of contacts2.5 in 20072.7 in 2008Migration from 1 contactto multiple contacts
  59. 59. 5949%36%13%18%3%14%5% 7%30%25%0%20%40%60%80%100%CompletelysatisfiedAction acceptable Some action taken Dissatisfied withactionDissatisfied noaction2007 2008%ofcustomersWhich one of the following statements best describes your feelings about theoverall action taken by ABC Company to resolve your primary question, request or problem?Satisfaction With ActionTakenSatisfied MollifiedDissatisfiedMigration from “Satisfied” to “Mollified”
  60. 60. 60How to Completely SatisfyCustomers?Actions to completely satisfy (based on coding of verbatim responses) % RespondentsBetter follow through 20%Repair/replace product 20%Provide better service 19%Make a better product/better instruction manual 11%Be more knowledgeable/provide better information 10%Other 9%Quicker resolution 6%Provide better solution to problem 5%Those who were not completely satisfied were asked….”What could the company havedone to cause you to be completely satisfied?”
  61. 61. 61Summary Findings (1/2)• Overall satisfaction with and willingness to recommendABC Company have decreased significantly in 2008 ascompared to 2007.• The primary reason for contacting ABC company for both 2007and 2008 was “request for repair of product,” with the averagenumber of reasons for contact increasing significantly since lastyear.• Compared with 2007, a higher percentage of consumerscontacted someone else (e.g., a retailer) prior to contacting ABCCompany, with those who contacted someone else first beingsignificantly less satisfied than those who did not contactsomeone else first.• Satisfaction with the action taken to resolve consumers’ primaryreason for contact has decreased significantly since 2007.
  62. 62. 62Summary Findings (2/2)• Satisfaction with the representative (e.g., professionalism,knowledge) and response (e.g., timeliness, helpfulness)decreased slightly.• Satisfaction with follow-through decreased significantly since2007 and was the area most frequently mentioned in theresponse to the question – “What could the company havedone to completely satisfy you?”• Compared with 2007, consumers need to make morecontacts to obtain resolution (especially with “productcomplaints”) and it takes longer for a consumer to obtainresolution.• If contacts are not resolved in one contact and within 7 days,there is a significant drop in satisfaction.
  63. 63. OUR IDEAGiving a succinct gist of our idea, we plan to distributeknowledge by the concept of e-learning. We intend to utilizethis concept across various technical streams and provideservices such as:-• online certification courses• coaching for competitive exams• CSR (corporate social responsibility) for companies
  64. 64. IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDYOF MARKET RESEARCH IN OURIDEAOur Market Research will focus on the following data :-1. Number of students who have a minimum qualificationof H.S.C.2. Number of educated housewives.3. Number of dropouts in undergraduate courses.4. Number of students who wish to pursue courses besidestheir academic syllabi.5. Number of companies doing or going to do CSR in thenear future.6. Number of companies having a systematic employeetraining program.
  65. 65. QUESTIONNAIRE1. Are you comfortable with learning through videos andanimations?YES MAYBE NO2. How many hours in a week would you be willing to learn newcourses online?1-3 hours 3-5 hours 5-8 hours3. Will you be willing to pay to get a certificate for the course thatyou have completed?YES MAYBENO4. Which courses would you like to pursue online?__________________________________________.
  66. 66. THANK YOU!!!
  67. 67. “It ain’t the things we don’tknow that gets us in trouble. It’sthe things we know that ain’t so.”Artemus Ward