October 2009 Princeton Market Seminar

Weichert, Princeton Office October Market Update Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.

Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ O 609-921-1900 www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton

Presented by: The presentation will be posted on the following site immediately after todays session to the following site. Will be available for downloads thru Monday. www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton

Agenda
The Market
Strategies for Buying
Strategies for Selling

Agenda
The Market:
- The National Economy a Year Ago…

Chrysler in Bankruptcy…GM Next…Over 1000 Chrysler Dealers to be shuttered… Source: Autodata

‘ TARP… BAILOUTS… CREDIT CRUCH… “TBTF” RECESSIONISTA… CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP’ Source: Autodata We learned a new vocabulary…

Source: Autodata 2 Year Picture of the DOW…

‘ Congrats! You Just Lived Through the Worst Stock Market Drop Since the Depression’ -about.com Source: Autodata We Survived…

The consequences… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003

What about the Real Estate Markets….?

A real estate market correction was taking shape the summer of 2001… Inventory was growing… Rates were edging up… Contracts were slowing…

Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2009 from 2008 NY (Ashby) -9.26% CT (Doepper) +1.44% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +.32% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +.32% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +.28% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +.08% Southern NJ (Williams) -.03%

123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
First Time home buyers were priced out of the market
Financing was too available (ie ‘subprime’)
Banks made bad bets (ie that home prices would continue to rise)Lehman, Merril, over 300+ fail
Credit freeze, affects ‘main street’ business…

Fast Forward to today… Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial

Where is the bottom of the market? “ The effects (of foreclosures) are continued declining prices….probably another 5-8%* to the bottom. As for the effect of foreclosure pricing, all of these problems are causing home prices to go lower than is necessary from an affordability perspective . That’s because everyone is now worrying about job security. As a result, the recovery will take place at a faster pace once it gets started.” – Jeff Otteau (otteau.com- January 2009)

‘ Real Estate is a Bottom up market…’ “ Everything I am seeing tells me we have arrived at the bottom of the market, specifically in the popular and affordable price ranges.” J. Weichert 6/2009

Weichert, Realtors 2009 Revenue Units % Increase/Decrease by Month

65.4% Increase in Sales $350,000 & Under Recovery Has Begun September YTD reported internal revenue units

Sales by Price Range

Pending Home Sales Up 7 Months in a Row 2001 = 100 Source: NAR

Housing Recovery is Under Way First-time home buyers purchased 30% of homes in August. *NAR Practitioner Survey August 2009

Months Supply of Lower Priced Single Family Homes Falling Source: NAR (Unpublished data) Price Category August 2008 August 2009 $99,999 or less 6.8 4.3 $100,000 to 249,999 7.8 4.9 $250,000 to $499,999 10.2 6.4 $500,000 to $749,999 14.0 10.0 $750,000 to $999,999 16.5 10.5 $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 19.8 15.2 $2,000,000 or greater 32.0 31.7 All Single-family 10.0 8.2

The Local Inventory Trends. Economics 101: As supply goes up, prices go ___. Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

Princeton Boro Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot

Princeton Twp Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot

Lawrence Inventory Trends: 4 year View

Hopewell Inventory Trends: 4 year View

Ewing Inventory Trends: 4 year View

West Windsor Inventory Trends: 4 Year View

Plainsboro Inventory Trends: 4 year View

YTD Closed Homes Snapshot: 2007 2008 2009 Princeton Boro 77 67 50 Princeton Twp. 185 150 128 West Windsor 304 264 248 Lawrence 323 249 234 Hopewell 191 172 116 Plainsboro 232 183 189

Plainsboro Inventory Trends: 4 year View

1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local

1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…

Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

9/22/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 43 7 6.14 6 1 12 27% 1 3 12 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 14 3 4.6 4 1 4 28% 0 2 4 Pton-Boro Single Family 29 4 7.2 2 (2) 8 27% 1 1 8 Pton Twp: All Styles 122 14 8.7 26 12 34 28% 9 10 18 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 18 5 3.6 13 8 17 16% 5 10 15 Pton Twp: Single Family 104 9 11.5 13 4 17 16% 4 0 3

Town by Town Analysis 9/22/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 100 26 3.8 36 10 19 19% 17 6 28 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 14 8 1.7 7 (1) 5 35% 5 0 6 West Windsor 55+ 12 0 99 - - - - - - - West Windsor Single Family 74 18 4.1 29 11 14 19% 12 6 22 Lawrence: All Styles 204 27 7.5 58 21 38 19% 13 10 26 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 94 9 10.4 24 15 18 19% 8 6 10 Lawrence: 55+ 25 0 99 - - - - - - - Lawrence: Single Family 85 18 4.7 34 16 20 23% 5 4 16

Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 246 27 9.1 58 31 59 23% 25 11 26 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 45 7 6.4 16 9 8 18% 8 2 8 Ewing 55+: 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Ewing: Single Family 197 20 9.8 42 22 51 26% 17 9 18 East Windsor: All Styles 172 34 5.0 38 4 25 14% 17 6 32 East Windsor: Condo/ THouses 99 19 5.2 25 6 15 15% 11 1 15 East Windsor: 55+ 18 0 99 - - - - - - - East Windsor: Single Family 55 15 3.6 13 (2) 10 18% 6 5 17

Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 164 26 6 25 (1) 32 20% 14 7 15 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 22 6 4 1 (5) 3 14% 1 0 5 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Hopewell Twp: Single Family 138 20 7 24 4 29 21% 13 7 10 Hamilton: All Styles 530 86 6 100 14 132 25% 48 20 73 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 100 15 7 28 12 24 24% 12 5 16 Hamilton: Single Family 390 69 6 72 3 108 28% 36 15 57 Hamilton: 55+ 40 2 20 - - - - - - -

Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 100 16 6 21 5 21 21% 15 5 15 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 46 6 8 7 1 10 22% 7 1 5 Robbinsville 55+ - - - - - - - - - - Single Family 54 10 5 14 4 11 20% 8 4 10 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 55 2 27 10 8 9 16% 4 4 3 Pennington 22 3 7 8 5 8 36% 4 2 2 Hopewell Boro: All Styles 8 3 3 2 (1) 1 13% 2 0 1

Market Activity: Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 65 7 9.2 17 10 8 12% 10 0 20 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 34 5 6.8 8 3 5 14% 6 0 13 Plainsboro 55+ 12 0 12 2 2 1 8% 1 0 1 Plainsboro Single Family 19 2 9.5 7 5 2 10% 3 0 6 Cranbury: All Styles 33 0 99 5 5 4 12% 3 0 2 Cranbury: 55+ 5 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cranbury: Single Family 28 0 99 5 5 4 18% 3 0 2

Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 196 21 9 54 3 22 11% 21 18 36 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 61 10 6 27 17 8 13% 6 8 16 South Brunswick 55+ 30 1 30 2 1 3 1% 2 3 3 South Brunswick Single Family 105 11 9.5 25 14 11 10% 13 7 21 Monroe: All Styles 471 30 16 107 77 57 12% 62 4 57 Monroe: 55+ 302 27 13 70 43 36 12% 26 3 44 Monroe: Single Family 168 13 13 37 24 21 13% 36 1 12

9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgom. 138 24 5.7 32 8 26 19% 10 9 32 Hillsboro 265 41 6.4 62 21 43 16% 13 10 30 Rocky Hill 5 0 99 1 1 1 20% 0 0 0 Franklin 238 105 75 32% 37 20 59

Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .

Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal

Princeton Borough Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 9 2 4.5 $500-999k 12 1 12 $1 million - $2 million 12 0 99 $2- $5 million 10 1 10

Princeton Township Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 6 3 2 $500-999k 53 2 26 $1 million - $2 million 34 2 17 $2- $4 million 22 0 99 $4 + 2 0 99

West Windsor Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 51 11 4.6 $500-750k 29 6 4.8 $750-999 16 0 99 $999 + 8 1 8

Lawrence Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$300 101 12 8.4 $300-500 54 8 6.7 $500-700 26 1 26 $700-999 6 0 999 999+ 13 0 99

Ewing Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$150 36 8 4.5 $150-250 123 13 9.4 $250-450 72 9 8 450+ 4 0 99

Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in… I want to live/ sell in West Windsor…

West Windsor Absorption Rate 106 current active listings 18 reported sales in last 30 days = 5.9 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. All Styles

West Windsor Absorption Rate 16 current active listings 8 reported sales in last 30 days = 2 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Condos & Townhouses

West Windsor Absorption Rate 90 current active listings 10 reported sales in last 30 days = 10 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Single Family

West Windsor Absorption Rate 66 current active listings 9 reported sales in last 30 days = 7.3 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Single Family 0-$750k

2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS

Source: MLS Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2007

Source: MLS Inventory Levels, Princeton, New Jersey, 2007

3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lower bids… Source: MLS

Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

Town by Town Analysis 8/18/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 208 24 8 43 19 35 16% 27 6 4 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 70 9 7 21 12 19 14 6 3 1 South Brunswick 55+ 31 6 5 2 (4) 4 12 4 0 0 South Brunswick Single Family 109 9 12 20 11 21 19 17 3 0 Monroe: All Styles 487 39 12 92 53 105 21% 41 7 9 Monroe: 55+ 312 29 10 53 24 68 21% 22 6 1 Monroe: Single Family 175 10 21 39 29 37 21% 19 1 0

Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’

Seeing the Opportunity.

Seeing the Opportunity.
Q. If this were 2005, where would you place the Price and Rate dots?
Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low A. In 2005, the V would look somewhat like this one, where prices were on the high end of the scale and rates were in the lower range.

Seizing the Opportunity.
In recent history, there has never been an opportunity like this, with low prices and low rates. In real estate, this circular area at the bottom of the V is called the “Buying Zone” – it’s an unbelievable time to buy.
Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low

Jeff Smith, Gold Services Manager/ Loan Officer Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.

‘ I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $319,130 2nd Year 0% $319,130 3rd Year 1% $322,321 4th Year 3% $331,990 5th Year 5% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $44,200 Create Equity v Pay Rent

+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan = Total 5 Year Gain: $59,922 Yearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Year Beginning Balance Payment Principal Interest Cumulative Principal Cumulative Interest Ending Balance 2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.00 2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.70 2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.72 2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.36 2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08

Incentive From the Government First-time homebuyers can receive a tax credit up to $8000!

Tax Credit Overview Distribute NAR Tax Credit Overview handout Amount Ten percent of the cost of home, not to exceed $8,000 Property Any single family residence that will be used as a principal residence Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $75,000 single or $150,000 joint tax returns First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in 3 years prior to purchase

Tax Credit FAQs
Can individuals with incomes higher than the income limits still benefit from the tax credit?
How does a tax credit work?
How do I apply for the credit?
Is there a way to get the credit before I file my tax return?
Distribute NAR Frequently Asked Question handout

How much house can I really afford?

The first step is to meet with me!
Establish Your Buying Power

Factors to consider when buying and selling… Source: MLS 1. Inventory(supply and demand) 2. Interest Rates

Interest Rates Remain Low Source: Freddie Mac

The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…

‘ Great speech but does it really work?

We know the best way to evaluate pricing
Does this really work?

2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home .

The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .

Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…

… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged

“ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”

Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged

Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

Why Promote Home Staging ? The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.

The average marketing time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80% less . Why Promote Home Staging ?

3. The Effect of ‘ Pre-Inspection’ on the Sale of Your Home.

What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’

Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2% .

Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.

Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days. Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.

Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?

Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.

Time is money.
The Weichert Difference
Stress kills.
Time is life.

Educate You.
Negotiate on your behalf.
Offer advice on due diligence.
Manage all aspects of the transaction process.
What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?

We’re Here to Help
The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.

Become a Fan! www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.slideshare.net/jdwilton www.twitter.com/joshuawilton Presentation available at all 3 sites, download file through Monday.

Resource and website list:
Realtor.org
http://www.facebook.com/pages/
NAR-Research/73888294183#
Remodeling.com

Resource and Website List
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx Remodeling.com
www.Otteau.com
www.Pre-listing-inspection.com

Resource and Website List:
www.Housemaster.com
www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com

Resource and website list:
www.Stagedhomes.com
www.realestatestagingassociation.com
www.foreclosurepoint.com
www.realtytrac.com

Good Luck with your Move!

October 2009 Princeton Market Seminar

by Weichert Realtors

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October 2009 Princeton Market Seminar Presentation Transcript