March customer seminar

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  • www.realtor.org
  • www.realtor.org
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
  • (elicit responses)
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Populate this table to show the local absorption rate in the various price ranges that are appropriate for your market area. Please add or delete rows as necessary to adequately reflect local conditions.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your associates. For ideas on what to cover, refer to the tables in the Planning Day Presentation on your Planning Day 2005 CD. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your associates. For ideas on what to cover, refer to the tables in the Planning Day Presentation on your Planning Day 2005 CD. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your associates. For ideas on what to cover, refer to the tables in the Planning Day Presentation on your Planning Day 2005 CD. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • Create your own table or put together a bulleted list that covers the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your Associates. Examples of items that might be used on this slide include trends in sales, prices, inventory and/or foreclosures in the different communities in your local market; news from your local board of Realtors; what the competition is doing, etc.
  • Create your own table or put together a bulleted list that covers the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your Associates. Examples of items that might be used on this slide include trends in sales, prices, inventory and/or foreclosures in the different communities in your local market; news from your local board of Realtors; what the competition is doing, etc.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.

Transcript

  • 1. Weichert, Princeton Office March 2013 Market Update/ Forecast SeminarOffers analysis of the Princeton &Greater Princeton, NJ real estatemarkets & effective strategies to buy and sell.
  • 2. Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Manager Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ (o) 609-921-1900 weichert-princeton.comfacebook.com/weichertprinceton
  • 3. Agenda1. The Market- A History- Forecast for 20122. Strategies for Buying3. Strategies for Selling
  • 4. Agenda1. The Real Estate Market(a brief history)
  • 5. AgendaThen…
  • 6. Otteau.com
  • 7. Unsold I nventory from t he MLS in Weichert Market Areas November 2004 thru November 2010 * added Waters & Williams Region to Totals 11/ 13/ 06 11/ 12/ 07 11/ 17/ 08 11/ 15/ 04 11/ 14/ 05 11/ 16/ 09 11/ 15/ 10 84,621 88,414 84,942 31,676 41,156 77,985 92,09625,00020,000 Variance % 2010 to 2009 NY (Ashby) +13.11% CT (Doepper) +118.53% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +5.86% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +6.78%15,000 Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +9.24% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +10.63% Southern NJ (Williams) +10.87%10,000 5,000 0 1/20/2004 2/20/2004 3/20/2004 4/20/2004 5/20/2004 6/20/2004 7/20/2004 9/20/2004 1/20/2005 2/20/2005 3/20/2005 4/20/2005 5/20/2005 6/20/2005 7/20/2005 8/20/2005 9/20/2005 1/20/2006 2/20/2006 3/20/2006 4/20/2006 5/20/2006 6/20/2006 7/20/2006 8/20/2006 9/20/2006 1/20/2007 2/20/2007 3/20/2007 4/20/2007 6/20/2007 7/20/2007 9/20/2007 1/20/2008 2/20/2008 3/20/2008 4/20/2008 5/20/2008 6/20/2008 7/20/2008 8/20/2008 9/20/2008 2/20/2009 3/20/2009 4/20/2009 5/20/2009 6/20/2009 7/20/2009 8/20/2009 9/20/2009 1/20/2010 2/20/2010 3/20/2010 8/20/2004 5/20/2007 8/20/2007 1/20/2009 4/20/2010 10/20/2003 11/20/2003 12/20/2003 10/20/2004 12/20/2004 10/20/2005 11/20/2005 12/20/2005 10/20/2006 11/20/2006 12/20/2006 10/20/2007 11/20/2007 12/20/2007 11/20/2008 12/20/2008 11/20/2009 12/20/2009 11/20/2004 10/20/2008 10/20/2009 ASHBY TOTAL DOEPPER TOTAL BIXON TOTAL MCDONALD TOTAL PREVETE TOTAL WATERS TOTAL WILLIAMS TOTAL In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years.
  • 8. The MarketLast Year…
  • 9. 2012: State of the Market Affordability willSpur Recovery
  • 10. Affordability IndexDefinition: A measure of the financial ability of USFamilies to buy a house. 100 means that familiesearning the national median income have just theamount of money needed to qualify for a mortgageon a median priced home.Higher than100 means they have more than enough.Lower than 100 means they have less than enough.Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010
  • 11. 194.5 Nov 2011Affordability Index
  • 12. 2012: State of the MarketHistorically Low Interest Rates
  • 13. 30 Year Fixed interest rate 3.94% Lowest in recorded history
  • 14. How Long Will Interest Rates Remain Low? 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • 15. What will the future bring…?
  • 16. What will the future bring…?
  • 17. What will the future bring…?http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/15/real_estate/rent_rise_housing/index.htm
  • 18. 2012 Better Year… 2013…
  • 19. Where we are …
  • 20. Single Family Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +2.8% WEST MIDWEST +1.2% +9.7% SOUTH +7.5% U.S. AVERAGE +5.8% NAR 2/2013
  • 21. $1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +71.3% WEST MIDWEST +66.7% +48.0% SOUTH +47.4% U.S. AVERAGE +62.3% NAR 2/2013
  • 22. Projected % Change in Home Prices Source 2013 JP Morgan 9.7% Barclays 5.5% Capital Economics 5% Freddie Mac 2-3%
  • 23. Average Annual Appreciation12.0%10.0% 10.4%8.0%6.0%4.0% 3.6% 3.3%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0% -5.7%-6.0% Pre-Bubble (1987-1999) Bubble (Q1 2000 - Q2 2006) Bust (Q3 2006 - Q2 2012) Expectations (2013 - 2017) Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012
  • 24. Fiscal Cliff Legislation ~ Good For Real Estate• Mortgage Cancellation Relief is extended for one year to January 1, 2014.• Deduction for Mortgage Insurance Premiums for filers making below $110,000 is extended through 2013 and made retroactive to cover 2012.• The 10% tax credit (up to $500) for homeowners for energy improvements to existing homes is extended through 2013 and made retroactive to cover 2012
  • 25. Fiscal Cliff Legislation ~ Good For Real Estate• The tax exclusion for gains on the sale of a principle residence remains in effect for sellers whose income is above $450,000 (for those filing a joint return).• Continuation of Mortgage Interest deduction on Federal Income Taxes.
  • 26. 2013 Economic IndicatorsGDP Growth: 2% growth in 2013, about the same as last yearInterest Rates: Little or no increase in short-term rates in 2013Inflation: Rising slightly this year, to about 2.3%Business Spending: About a 4% gain in 2013Unemployment: Falling gradually over 2013 to around 7.5%Housing: Up 8% in 2012; helping GDP in 2013Energy: Crude oil holding steady at $90-$95/barrel through early springConsumer Confidence: Rising this winter.
  • 27. NAR 2013 Projections• Affordability Index a record high in November 2012 at 194 projecting 160 for 2013.• Total Sales projecting 5.08 Million or 8.5% increase in 2013.• New Home Sales projecting 533,000 in 2013 a 46% increase.• Average Home Sales Price $185,800 or 4.2% increase in 2013.*Source: NAR News Release 12/20/12
  • 28. February 2013 Real Estate Headlines
  • 29. February 2013 Real Estate HeadlinesFrom Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. [NAR Release 2/11/13]• “Unsold listing inventory is the lowest level in 12 years.”• “In fact, buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago.”• “Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 4.9 percent…which represents a 4.2 month supply. It’s the lowest housing supply since April 2005.”
  • 30. February 2013 Real Estate Headlines
  • 31. February 2013 Real Estate Headlines6.0% 5.5% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3%4.0% Increase of 3.6% 7.3% 2.0%2.0% Jan for 2012 Apr Feb Mar 1.1% May 0.6%0.0% -0.5% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-2.0% -1.7% -2.5%-4.0% -3.5% -3.9%-6.0% S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
  • 32. Spring 2013 Market Conditions• Dramatically reduced listing inventory levels.• Multiple Offers on the vast majority of houses going under contract.• Homes selling fast.• Heavy buyer demand especially in the more popular neighborhoods and price points.
  • 33. Why is This Happening?• Improved job market• Fiscal Cliff behind us• Consumer Affordability and stronger consumer confidence• Post election pent up demand• Low interest rates• Overall positive real estate industry news• Wasn’t the world suppose to end on 12/21/12 according to the Mayan calendar?
  • 34. 2013 Real Estate MarketMentally Shift into a Different Gear
  • 35. What will the future bring…?
  • 36. Mercer County ‘Supply & Demand’Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • 37. NJ Housing Permits In thousand unitsSource: Census
  • 38. Mercer County Housing Permits 2000- 2009 Source: Census
  • 39. Mercer County Housing Permits 2012 Single- Single- Two- Two- 3-or-4- 3-or-4- 5-or-More 5-or-More Total Family Family Family Family Family Family Family FamilyMercer Units Units Value Units Value Units Value Units ValueEast Windsor township 27 27 5,264,144 0 0 0 0 0 0Ewing township 85 3 2,378,118 4 4,000 3 55,000 75 6,603,330Hamilton township 31 22 3,285,541 2 150,000 0 0 7 114,762Hightstown borough 3 3 411,900 0 0 0 0 0 0Hopewell borough 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Hopewell township 68 8 3,115,896 0 0 0 0 60 5,779,000Lawrence township 2 2 383,650 0 0 0 0 0 0Pennington borough 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Princeton borough 8 6 2,998,400 2 474,527 0 0 0 0Princeton township 14 14 6,938,120 0 0 0 0 0 0Robbinsville township* 85 0 10,021 4 329,000 0 0 5 9,156Trenton 9 21 5,188,122 0 0 0 0 64 5,411,451West Windsor township 115 6 1,262,785 0 0 0 0 109 7,729,428Mercer County Total 447 112 31,236,697 12 957,527 3 55,000 320 25,647,127 Source: Census
  • 40. Long Term Supply …Source: NAR, November 2008 ForecastRichardson Commercial
  • 41. Long Term Demand …Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf
  • 42. Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 1. Real Estate is Local 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local
  • 43. 1. You Understand the Local MarketThat You are Buying into or Selling out of… -Inventory - Location - Sales Patterns - Neighborhood, Location - Style of Home, Beds, Baths, etc
  • 44. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • 45. Absorption Rate Weichert has been studying marketconditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation betweenmarket absorption and property values.As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually.
  • 46. Sample Market Absorption Rate Anytown., NJ 107 current active listings 24.3 = months absorption 4 reported sales in last 30 days rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 47. 47Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal 1Market Absorption in Months Weichert has been 2 studying market conditions for more than 3 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between 4 market absorption and 5 property values. Normal 6 As absorption rates 7 increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 8 months, property values depreciate annually. 9 Note: This Market Scale is valid 10 only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. 11 12
  • 48. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Listings Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in in 30 Days (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months Market 30 Days ReducedWestWindsor: 119 25 4.8 47 22 18 15.1% 2 3 13All StylesWestWindsor 13 3 4.3 6 3 1 7.7% 0 1 8Condo/T.HousesWestWindsor 11 2 5.5 4 2 _ _ 0 0 155+WestWindsor 95 20 4.8 37 17 17 17.9% 2 2 4SingleFamilyLawrence:All Styles 192 20 9.6 51 31 47 24.5% 5 8 9Lawrence:Condo/ 55 8 6.9 17 9 21 38.2% 2 2 5THousesLawrence:55+ 14 1 14 2 1 _ _ 0 1 1Lawrence:Single 123 11 11.2 32 21 26 21.1% 3 5 3
  • 49. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Listings Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in in 30 Days (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months Market 30 Days ReducedWestWindsor: 64 28 2.3 26 (2) 13 20.3% 2 0 16All StylesWestWindsor 7 7 1.0 3 (4) 1 14.3% 1 0 6Condo/T.HousesWestWindsor 7 2 3.5 2 0 _ _ 1 0 355+WestWindsor 50 19 2.6 21 2 12 24.0% 0 0 7SingleFamilyLawrence:All Styles 148 15 9.9 42 27 27 18.2% 8 1 18Lawrence:Condo/ 40 7 5.7 11 4 8 20.0% 4 0 9THousesLawrence:55+ 9 1 9.0 3 2 _ _ 1 0 2Lawrence:Single 99 7 14.1 28 21 19 19.2% 3 1 7Family
  • 50. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Listings % of Expire W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in Gain Reduced Invent. d Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days (Loss) in 30 Reduced Listing to Days s MarketPlainsboroAll Styles 82 17 4.8 25 8 15 18% 11 0 13PlainsboroCondo/ 38 8 4.75 14 6 7 18% 9 0 6THousesPlainsboro55+ 14 3 4.6 1 (2) 1 7% 0 0 1PlainsboroSingle 30 6 5 10 4 7 23% 2 0 6FamilyCranbury:All Styles 18 2 9 2 0 2 11% 0 0 3
  • 51. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Listings % of Expire W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in Gain Reduced Invent. d Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days (Loss) in 30 Reduced Listing to Days s MarketPlainsboroAll Styles 59 16 3.6 22 6 8 14% 6 0 14PlainsboroCondo/ 27 9 3 10 1 2 7% 5 0 6THousesPlainsboro55+ 12 2 6 1 (1) 0 0 0 0 5PlainsboroSingle 20 5 4 11 6 6 30% 1 0 3FamilyCranbury:All Styles 14 3 4.6 4 1 2 14% 1 0 1
  • 52. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market 30 Days ReducedEwing:All Styles 250 14 18 55 41 44 18% 12 7 18Ewing :Condo/ 30 0 999 8 8 6 20% 1 1 1T.HousesEwing55+: 14 0 999 2 2 --- --- 0 0 1Ewing:Single 206 14 15 45 31 38 18% 11 6 16FamilyEastWindsor: 193 18 11 40 22 38 20% 20 3 12All StylesEastWindsor: 110 8 14 22 14 17 15% 11 2 7Condo/ThousesEastWindsor: 13 2 6.5 3 1 --- --- 4 0 155+EastWindsor: 70 8 9 15 7 21 30% 5 1 4SingleFamily
  • 53. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market 30 Days ReducedEwing:All Styles 190 25 8 38 13 32 17% 19 1 12Ewing :Condo/ 28 4 7 8 4 5 18% 2 1 3T.HousesEwing55+: 3 2 1.5 0 -2 --- --- 3 0 1Ewing:Single 159 19 8 30 11 27 17% 14 0 8FamilyEastWindsor: 140 21 7 32 11 22 16% 6 3 15All StylesEastWindsor: 69 14 5 13 -1 13 19% 5 2 7Condo/ThousesEastWindsor: 8 0 999 2 2 --- --- 0 0 155+EastWindsor: 63 7 9 17 10 9 10% 1 1 7SingleFamily
  • 54. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorptio New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last n Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market 30 Days ReducedHopewellTwp. 137 9 14.67 34 25 20 14.5% 3 4 15All StylesHopewellTwp. Condo/ 11 2 5.5 2 0 4 36% 0 2 0T.HousesHopewellTwp.: 11 0 99 5 5 - - 0 0 155+Hopewell TwpSingle Family 140 7 20 27 20 16 14% 3 2 14 528 72 7.33 118 46 121 23% 19 11 50Hamilton: AllStyles 101 25 4.04 8 -17 28 28% 6 3 5Hamilton:Condo/ THouses 33 3 11 8 5 - - 3 0 3Hamilton:55+ 394 44 8.9 102 58 93 23.6% 10 8 42Hamilton:Single Family
  • 55. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced in Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market 30 Days ReducedHopewellTwp. 143 13 11 47 34 16 11.2% 8 2 7All StylesHopewellTwp. Condo/ 8 5 1.6 6 1 1 12.5% 7 0 0T.HousesHopewellTwp.: 3 0 99 2 2 -- -- 0 0 055+Hopewell TwpSingle Family 132 8 16.5 39 31 15 11.4% 1 2 7Hamilton: AllStyles 422 57 7.4 116 59 55 13% 23 13 49Hamilton:Condo/ THouses 82 8 10.3 18 10 1 12.5% 3 3 10Hamilton:55+ 25 7 3.6 7 0 -- -- 1 0 2Hamilton:Single Family 315 42 7.5 91 49 54 17.1% 19 10 37
  • 56. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/draw Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings n Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Listings DaysPrinceton Boro:All Styles 42 2 21 14 12 8 19% 0 2 1Pton -BoroCondo/ Thouses 20 1 20 4 3 5 25% 0 2 1Pton-BoroSingle Family 22 1 22 10 9 3 13.6% 0 0 0Pton Twp: AllStyles 127 11 11.5 42 31 14 11% 1 0 10Pton Twp:Condo/ Thouses 21 2 10.5 8 6 1 4.6% 0 0 3Pton Twp:Single Family 106 9 11.8 34 25 13 12.3% 1 0 7
  • 57. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Invent. Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Reduced Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 DaysPrinceton:All Styles 129 18 7.2 36 18 15 11.6% 4 4 9Princeton:Condo/ Thouses 31 2 15.5 8 6 4 12.9% 1 1 3Princeton:Single Family 98 16 6.1 28 12 11 11.2% 3 3 6
  • 58. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Listings % of Expire W/draw Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in Gain Reduce Invent. d n Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days (Loss) d in 30 Reduced Listing Listings to Days s MarketSouthBrunswick 328 14 23 47 33 38 12 17 2 23All StylesSouthBrunswickCondo/ T.Houses 80 5 16 23 18 13 16 9 0 8SouthBrunswick 33 1 33 1 0 2 6 0 0 155+SouthBrunswick 215 8 27 23 15 23 11 8 2 14Single FamilyMonroe:All Styles 432 20 22 111 91 67 16 3 0 3Monroe:55+ 319 15 21 74 59 41 13 0 0 3Monroe:Single Family 173 5 35 37 32 26 15 3 0 0
  • 59. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Days ReducedSouthBrunswick 171 13 13 48 35 7 4 18 2 12All StylesSouthBrunswickCondo/ T.Houses 62 9 7 18 9 5 8 3 0 5SouthBrunswick 30 1 30 5 4 -9 -30 5 1 155+SouthBrunswick 79 10 7.9 24 21 11 14 10 1 6Single FamilyMonroe:All Styles 427 32 13 108 76 40 9 26 3 71Monroe:55+ 268 25 26 70 45 25 9 16 1 52Monroe:Single Family 159 7 22 38 31 15 1 10 2 19
  • 60. 3/26/12Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/draw Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings n Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Listings DaysMontgomeryAll Styles 144 23 6.3 47 +24 16 11% 8 4 11MontgomeryCondo/Twnhms 21 1 21 7 +6 4 19% 2 0 3Single Family 123 22 5.6 40 +18 12 10% 6 4 8HillsboroughAll Styles 265 36 7.4 84 +48 52 20% 16 12 9HillsboroughCondo/Twnhms 98 10 9.8 27 +17 19 19% 6 3 3HillsboroughSingle Family 167 26 6.4 57 +31 33 20% 10 9 6
  • 61. 3/19/13Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced DaysMontgomeryAll Styles 112 15 7.5 26 +11 14 12% 3 1 11MontgomeryCondo/Twnhms 14 5 2.8 4 -1 1 7% 0 0 0Single Family 98 10 9.8 22 +12 13 13% 3 1 11HillsboroughAll Styles 167 39 4.3 42 +3 22 13% 5 2 15HillsboroughCondo/Twnhms 60 16 3.7 13 -3 14 23% 2 1 5HillsboroughSingle Family 107 23 4.6 29 +6 8 7% 3 1 10
  • 62. 62Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal 1Market Absorption in Months Weichert has been 2 studying market conditions for more than 3 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between 4 market absorption and 5 property values. Normal 6 As absorption rates 7 increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 8 months, property values depreciate annually. 9 Note: This Market Scale is valid 10 only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. 11 12
  • 63. Core MarketPrices will go up 10% in 2013…Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • 64. Buying/ Selling StrategiesSource: MLS
  • 65. Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in…
  • 66. Sample Market Absorption Rate Anytown., NJ 107 current active listings 24.3 = months absorption 4 reported sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the Absorption Rate indicates to normal current inventory of 5-6 Months Market number of months it will take a sell the market. homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 67. Market Absorption Rate West Windsor Single Family Homes $600,000 - $800,000 22 current active listings 2.2 months = absorption10 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 68. Market Absorption Rate West Windsor Condos/ Townhouses 7 current active listings 1 months = absorption7 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 69. Market Absorption Rate Robbinsville Condos/ Townhouses 33 current active listings 3 months = absorption11 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 70. Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick Condos/ Townhouses 56 current active listings 6.2 months = absorption9 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 71. Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick Condos/ Townhouses In Princeton Walk 2 current active listings 1 months = absorption1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 72. Market Absorption Rate Plainsboro Townhouses 12 current active listings 3 months = absorption4 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 73. Market Absorption Rate Princeton Single Family $500k - $800k 19 current active listings 3.8 months = absorption5 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 74. Market Absorption Rate Princeton Single Family $1.0-$1.5 million 19 current active listings 9.5 months = absorption2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 75. Market Absorption Rate Princeton Single Family $2.5 million + 16 current active listings 99* months = absorption0 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rateMarket Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market
  • 76. 2012 NAR Home Buyer & Seller Profile
  • 77. 2006 – 2012…‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
  • 78.   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year -3% $319,1302nd Year 0% $319,1303rd Year 1% $322,3214th Year 3% $331,9905th Year 5% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Vs Paying Rent @ Tax Benefit   $1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Create Equity Total Gain $44,200 v Pay Rent
  • 79.   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year 5 $319,1302nd Year 3% $319,1303rd Year 2% $322,3214th Year 2% $331,9905th Year 2% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590 Vs Paying Rent @ Tax Benefit   $1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Create Equity Total Gain $73,529 v Pay Rent
  • 80. + The Amortization Schedule on a LoanYearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Beginning Cumulative Cumulativ EndingYear Payment Principal Interest Balance Principal e Interest Balance2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.002011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.702012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.722013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.362014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08
  • 81. Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500 + Amortization: $20,109 +Tax Benefit of Home Ownership $25,000 + Low Interest Rates: $5000 ___________________ total 5 year gain = $69,609
  • 82. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • 83. 2013 - ?Top Buyer Negotiating Strategy…Pay up!
  • 84. Monroe Lane, Princeton Listed at $650,000 14 offers…
  • 85. Weichert’s Unique Negotiation Technique Escalation Clause Addendum
  • 86. Escalation Clause DialogueWhat is an escalation clause:“An escalation clause is simple language we include in your offer that authorizes your predetermined bid increments over all of the other bids up to your maximum purchase price.”
  • 87. Have you ever used Ebay?
  • 88. You don’t always pay your “maximum”
  • 89. Increase your offer just enough to be the high bidder:
  • 90. You set your offer, the bid increments and your maximum price up front:
  • 91. 2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’Source: MLS
  • 92. Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2012, Mercer County
  • 93. Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2012, Lawrence Twp.
  • 94. 3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lowerSource: MLS bids…?
  • 95. Don’t Wait Hopewell Twp: 82% Homes currently Under Contract: 17 Under contract within 30 days ofListing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 14 Princeton 63% Homes currently Under Contract: 19 Under contract within 30 days ofListing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 12
  • 96. Don’t wait… 2/13/13 Listed at $614,999. No offers…3/12/13 Reduced to $599,000….three offers.
  • 97. It’s About PriceSellers, if your listing hasn’t gone under contractin the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted it will not go under contract in the next 30. If the home your buyer wants has not had a price adjustment in the last 30 days it is theperfect time to go face to face with the seller to negotiate!
  • 98. Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership. Richard Moller, Loan Officer Weichert Financial Services
  • 99. Pop Quiz…If you take out a $200,000 30 year fixed payment loan from the bank, what is your monthly payment? A. $1901. B. $1640. C. $1201. D. $969.
  • 100. Pop Quiz…What does an average buyer need for a down payment? A. 25% B. 20% C. 10% D. 3.5% D. 0%
  • 101. Loan Application Checklist
  • 102. The Financial Process
  • 103. Establish Your Buying Power
  • 104. The Process to Sell a Home… All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
  • 105. Right PriceAll Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
  • 106. Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as part of yours…Source: MLS
  • 107. Source: Otteau.com
  • 108. Source: Otteau.com
  • 109. Source: Otteau.com
  • 110. Effects of Right Pricing…•Promotes buyer & agent interest• Generates home-viewings• Creates a Sense of Urgency• Sets the stage for multiple purchase offers during the 1st 30days of marketing• Purchase offers tend to be higher in relation to asking price• Puts the seller in firm control of price negotiations• Likely to result in a higher home selling price in a shortermarketing time period Otteau.com
  • 111. Effects of Over Pricing…In the final stages of Over Pricing – after extended days-on-market and several price reductions – a home begins toattract interest from buyers who are looking to profit fromsellers under duress. These buyers, often referred to asbottom-feeders, tend to offer deeply discounted prices forhomes. In the end, the Over Pricing scenario has manyadverse effects, including:Eliminating all Sense of UrgencyExtending marketing time in a price declining marketResults in asking price reductions over timeForfeits price control to the buyerEncourages discounted purchase offersAttracts bottom-feedersLeads to lower selling price Otteau.com
  • 112. Princeton Twp. 2010The Price Trend Came up with a price of $850,000. I recommended a price of $799,000.
  • 113. Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $799,000. 5 offers, sold at $942,000. The seller had control.
  • 114. Otteau.com
  • 115. One Aim Determining your best asking price.Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.
  • 116. 2. The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home.
  • 117. Home StagingAll Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
  • 118. The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or ConditionTo achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time.The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS.
  • 119. The Way You Live In Your Home…
  • 120. … And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things.
  • 121. “The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”
  • 122. Buyers Only Know What They See …
  • 123. … Not The Way It Is Going To Be.
  • 124. Home Staging “The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
  • 125. Home Staging “The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!” The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non- Staged home is 6.9%. That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
  • 126. Pre-InspectionAll Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control?
  • 127. What is‘Pre-Inspection?’
  • 128. Pre-Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspectors report will review the condition of the homes heating system, central airconditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows anddoors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.
  • 129. PRE-LISTING Home InspectionDOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
  • 130. Home WarrantyAll Negotiations, including real estate, are all about leverage and control.Who is in control?
  • 131. Home WarrantyRefrigerator?Stove?Washer?Dryer?Furnace?Central Air?Plumbing? WEICHERT HPPElectrical System? wKn o ’ s t wha ed udincl ur in yo g era Cov See terms, conditions and limitations in your home warranty. e!
  • 132. Who is in control?
  • 133. Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. OrI just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
  • 134. Return on Home Improvementshttp://www.remodeling.hw.net/2011/costvsvalue/division/middle-atlantic.aspx
  • 135. What will a real estatecompany do for me? Weichert Family of Companies
  • 136. This is where you win or lose the saleSource: 2012 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
  • 137. Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people.Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
  • 138. The Weichert Difference •Time is Money •Time is Life •Stress Kills
  • 139. What Will a Weichert Agent Do for You? Educate You. Negotiate on your behalf. Offer advice on due diligence. Manage all aspects of the transaction process.
  • 140. We’re Here to Help The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council• Use a LOCAL attorney• Use a REAL ESTATE attorney• Please, please, please… don’t use your brother’s cousin’s neighbor’s friend’s divorce attorney in Bergen County. It will cost you more than whatever “deal” they’re cutting you!
  • 141. Become a Fan!www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.weichert-princeton.comWe post a ton of great market data on these two sites.
  • 142. Resource and website list: Realtor.orghttp://www.facebook.com/pages/ NAR-Research/73888294183# Remodeling.com
  • 143. Resource and Website Listhttp://www.realtor.org/research/res earch/housinginx Remodeling.com www.Otteau.com www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
  • 144. Resource and Website List: www.Housemaster.comwww.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
  • 145. Resource and website list: www.Stagedhomes.comwww.realestatestagingassociation.com www.realtytrac.com