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January 2010 Market Update Seminar
 

January 2010 Market Update Seminar

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The market update presentation for January 2010.

The market update presentation for January 2010.

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  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your Associates. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • (elicit responses)
  • (elicit responses)
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • 28
  • 28
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • 28
  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your associates. For ideas on what to cover, refer to the tables in the Planning Day Presentation on your Planning Day 2005 CD. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • New Stats Pulled Off StagedHomes.com
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.

January 2010 Market Update Seminar January 2010 Market Update Seminar Presentation Transcript

  • Weichert, Princeton Office January Market Update Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.
  • Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ O 609-921-1900 www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton
  • Presented by: The presentation will be posted on the following site immediately after today’s session to the following site. Will be available for downloads thru Monday. www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton
  • Agenda
    • The Market
    • Strategies for Buying
    • Strategies for Selling
  • Agenda
    • The Market:
    • - The National Economy a Year Ago…
  • ‘ The U.S. economy is experiencing its worst recession in decades. Jobs and wealth are falling at a rapid pace, driving families more quickly into default, foreclosure, and bankruptcy. This crisis is precipitated by a sharp drop in consumer spending, as well as a decline in business investment and the fact that the United States continues to import more than it exports. The only sector of the economy that can turn the situation around is the federal government, but irresponsible management in the past has created large, looming deficits that will make it harder to design the necessary stimulus and economic recovery package. 1. GDP growth turns negative.  The gross domestic product declined at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008—the largest decline since the third quarter of 2001. The drop in growth followed a 3.8% decline in consumer spending—the largest decrease since the second quarter of 1980. Spending on homes also declined by 16.0% in the third quarter of 2008, marking the 11th quarterly decline in a row and the longest continuous decline in residential real estate spending since the 11th quarter period that ended in March 1958. 2. Job losses accelerate.  The U.S. economy lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008, including 524,000 jobs in December. Fifty-nine percent of job losses came during the last quarter. 3. Unemployment rates reflect broad labor market recession.  The unemployment rate was 7.2% in December 2008—the highest level since January 1993. The African-American unemployment rate stood at 11.9%, the Hispanic unemployment rate at 9.2%, and the unemployment rate for whites at 6.6% in December 2008. 4. The job market recession is the most severe in decades.  The labor market shrunk by 1.9% over the course of 2008—the fastest decline during the 12 months after a recession started since the recession that started in May 1960. The unemployment rate rose 2.3% during the first 12 months of the recession—the fastest such increase since the recession that started in January 1970. 5. Wages have temporarily outgrown inflation.  Factoring in inflation, hourly wages were 2.3% and weekly wages were 3.3% higher in November 2008 than in December 2007. These increases followed lower prices in November 2008 and are unlikely to continue. 6. Benefits decreased before the crisis.  The share of private sector workers with a pension dropped from 50.3% in 2000 to 45.1% in 2007, and the share of people with employer-provided health insurance dropped from 64.2% in 2000 to 59.3% in 2007. Source: Americanprogress.org
  • 8. The housing crisis deepens.  New home sales in November 2008 were 35.3% lower and existing home sales were 10.6% lower than a year earlier. Median sale prices for new homes dropped by 11.5% and those for existing homes by 13.2% during the same time. It would take more than 11 months to sell all houses on the market at the current rate of new home sales. This has been true for four months in a row now, making this the worst new home sales market since the Census Bureau collected these data in 1963. 9. Homeowners lose wealth.  The values of all homes fell by $656 billion in the third quarter of 2008 after accounting for inflation, and they were 13.6% or $2.4 trillion lower than a year earlier, making it the largest such drop since the Federal Reserve collected these data in 1952. Home equity as a share of home values also fell to a record low of 44.7% in the third quarter of 2008. 10. Mortgage troubles mount.  One in 10 mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure. The share of mortgages that were delinquent during the third quarter of 2008 was 7.0%, and the share of mortgages that were in foreclosure was 3.0%. The share of new mortgages going into foreclosure stayed at its record high of 1.1% in the third quarter. 11. Families feel the pressure.  Credit card defaults rose to 5.6% of all credit card debt by the third quarter of 2008—an increase of 35.4% from the fourth quarter of 2007. 12. Business investment declines.  Business investment declined by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2008—the largest decline since the first quarter of 2004. Business spending on equipment and software also dropped for the third quarter in a row, the longest such decline since the first quarter of 2002. 13. The trade deficit remains high.  The trade deficit stood at 4.9% of GDP in the third quarter of 2008. Despite declining slightly, the trade deficit remains at a historically high and ultimately unsustainable level. 14. Large deficits are looming.  Following years of fiscal and economic mismanagement, the federal government’s deficit is expected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2009, even before a necessary economic stimulus has been enacted. Source: Americanprogress.org
  • ‘ Congrats! You Just Lived Through the Worst Stock Market Drop Since the Depression’ -about.com Source: Autodata We Survived…
  • ‘ TARP… BAILOUTS… CREDIT CRUCH… “TBTF” RECESSIONISTA… CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP’ Source: Autodata We learned a new vocabulary…
  • Source: yahoo finance 5 Year Picture of the DOW…
  • WSJ estimates over $8.4 trillion lost in the stock market crash. Source: wsj
  • From the end of 2006 through March 31, it says, the total market value of U.S. household real estate fell from $21.9 trillion to $17.9 trillion. That's about 18%. (The lost wealth works out at just over $13,000 for every person in the country.) Source: wsj
  • The consequences… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  • The consequences… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  •  
  • What about the Real Estate Markets….?
  • A real estate market correction was taking shape the summer of 2001… Inventory was growing… Rates were edging up… Contracts were slowing…
  • Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2009 from 2008 NY (Ashby) -9.26% CT (Doepper) +1.44% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +.32% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +.32% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +.28% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +.08% Southern NJ (Williams) -.03%
  • 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
    • First Time home buyers were priced out of the market
    • Financing was too available (ie ‘subprime’)
    • Banks made bad bets (ie that home prices would continue to rise)Lehman, Merril, over 300+ fail
    • Credit freeze, affects ‘main street’ business…
  • A long term outlook in Mercer County… Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial
  • NJ Housing Permits Source: Census In thousand units
  • Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf (Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate 2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6% 2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7% 2000 Total Population 350,761
  • Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf Estimated Pop. by Age Pop by Age, % Est. 2013 Median Age 39 2008 Median Age 38 2000 Median Age 36 2008 Total Pop 0-19 98,816 26.6% 2008 Total Pop 20-29 49,307 13.3% 2008 Total Pop 30-39 49,497 13.3% 2008 Total Pop 40-49 58,288 15.7% 2008 Total Pop 50-59 51,605 13.9% 2008 Total Pop 60+ 64,450 17.3%
  • Fast Forward to today… Have we hit the bottom of the market yet…?!?!?!? Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • Source: yahoo finance 1 Year Picture of the DOW…
  • Where is the bottom of the market? “ The effects (of foreclosures) are continued declining prices….probably another 5-8%* to the bottom.  As for the effect of foreclosure pricing, all of these problems are causing home prices to go lower than is necessary from an affordability perspective .   That’s because everyone is now worrying about job security.  As a result, the recovery will take place at a faster pace once it gets started.” – Jeff Otteau (otteau.com- January 2009)
  • ‘ Real Estate is a Bottom up market…’ “ Everything I am seeing tells me we have arrived at the bottom of the market, specifically in the popular and affordable price ranges.” J. Weichert 6/2009
  • Source: otteau.com
  • Months Supply of Lower Priced Single Family Homes Falling Source: NAR (Unpublished data) Price Category August 2008 August 2009 $99,999 or less 6.8 4.3 $100,000 to 249,999 7.8 4.9 $250,000 to $499,999 10.2 6.4 $500,000 to $749,999 14.0 10.0 $750,000 to $999,999 16.5 10.5 $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 19.8 15.2 $2,000,000 or greater 32.0 31.7 All Single-family 10.0 8.2
  • Statistically speaking, there are grounds for modest optimism that prices will trend upward in the near future, said the market analyst Jeffrey Otteau, whose  Otteau Valuation Group continuously tracks sales data in 21 counties for real estate companies. Mr. Otteau cited one recent report indicating that  New Jersey  was one of a half dozen “breakout” states in which prices had already begun to creep up in the second half of 2009. That report came from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which indexes purchase prices of homes with mortgages guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Looking at data from the entire period of the slide — the start of 2006 through the third quarter of 2009 — Mr. Otteau concluded that the state’s residential market “didn’t get hammered all that bad” compared with the nation at large, and was likely to recover faster. Optimism About the New Year… -nytimes.com
  • NJ 2008 v 2009 Sales
  • State Housing Supply
  • Local Inventory Trends. Economics 101: As supply goes up, prices go ___. Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • Princeton Boro Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot
  • Princeton Twp Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot
  • Lawrence Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Hopewell Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Ewing Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • West Windsor Inventory Trends: 4 Year View
  • Plainsboro Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Closed Homes Snapshot: 2007 2008 2009 Princeton Boro 87 72 61 Princeton Twp. 211 163 157 West Windsor 371 299 303 Lawrence 383 285 305 Hopewell 226 191 153 Plainsboro 273 214 231
  • Town 08 Inven. Count 08 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 08 Absorp. Rate 09 Inven. Count 09 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 09 Absorp. Rate (months) 10 Inven. Count 10 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 10 Absorp. Rate (months) Pton. Boro 35 3 11.6 39 4 9.6 29 1 29 Pton. Twp. 87 16 5.4 87 6 14.5 77 3 25 W. Windsor 100 11 9.09 96 7 13.7 76 18 4.2 Lawrence 173 15 11.5 158 10 15.8 188 19 9.8 East Windsor 171 24 7.1 159 11 14.4 139 15 9.2 Ewing 244 23 10.6 198 12 16.5 204 18 11.3 Hopewell Twp. 140 21 6.6 97 11 8.8 123 14 9 Cranbury 19 2 9.5 25 0 99 25 0 99 Plainsboro 77 19 4.05 66 4 16 49 6 8.1 Montgom 99 6 16.5 83 4 20.7 81 4 20.2 Cum. 1145 140 8.1 1008 69 14.6 991 98 10.1
  • 1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local
  • 1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…
  • Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 29 1 29 4 3 3 10% 1 3 4 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 5 0 99 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 Pton-Boro Single Family 24 1 24 3 2 3 13% 1 3 3 Pton Twp: All Styles 77 3 25.6 17 14 12 16 9 3 14 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 7 0 99 4 4 3 43 1 1 7 Pton Twp: Single Family 70 3 23.3 13 10 9 13 8 2 7
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 76 18 4.2 15 (3) 18 23.7 13 5 21 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 18 3 6 8 5 5 5 27 8 1 West Windsor 55+ 12 0 99 - - - - - - - West Windsor Single Family 46 15 3.0 7 8 13 28.2 5 4 20 Lawrence: All Styles 188 19 9.8 33 14 23 12.2 14 6 25 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 63 8 7.8 17 9 12 19 3 3 14 Lawrence: 55+ 24 0 99 - - - - - - - Lawrence: Single Family 91 11 8.2 16 5 11 12.0 11 3 11
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 204 18 11.3 31 13 23 11.2 33 1 16 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 36 5 7.2 3 (2) 4 11.1 3 0 2 Ewing 55+: 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Ewing: Single Family 164 13 12.6 28 15 19 11.5 30 1 14 East Windsor: All Styles 139 15 9.2 20 5 20 14.3 21 6 18 East Windsor: Condo/ THouses 79 11 7.1 14 3 13 16.4 18 5 9 East Windsor: 55+ 13 0 99 - - - - - - - East Windsor: Single Family 77 4 11.8 6 2 7 14.9 3 1 9
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 83 8 10 17 9 11 13% 5 4 12 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 45 4 11 11 7 8 17% 1 2 5 Robbinsville 55+ - - - - - - - - - - - 38 4 9.5 6 2 3 7% 4 2 7 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 46 5 9 2 (3) 1 2% 8 2 3 Pennington 18 2 9 2 0 4 22 3 0 2 Hopewell Boro: All Styles 13 0 99 4 4 1 7 1 0 0
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months =Ag New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced e Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 123 14 9 6 (8) 16 13% 14 8 13 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 10 1 10 0 (1) 1 10% 2 0 1 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 2 0 99 - - - - - - - Hopewell Twp. Single Family 113 13 9 6 (7) 15 13% 12 8 12 Hamilton: All Styles 462 30 15 67 37 54 12% 63 20 42 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 97 12 8 26 14 13 13% 11 7 17 Hamilton: Single Family 334 18 19 41 23 41 12% 52 13 25 Hamilton: 55+ 31 0 99 - - - - - - - -
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 46 9 8.1 13 7 16 38% 12 2 6 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 29 4 7.2 11 7 7 23% 8 2 4 Plainsboro 55+ 7 0 99 0 0 3 42% 2 0 0 Plainsboro Single Family 14 2 7 2 0 6 42% 2 0 2 Cranbury: All Styles 25 0 99 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 Cranbury: 55+ 2 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cranbury: Single Family 23 0 99 0 0 1 4 2 0 1
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months g New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 169 13 13 37 24 23 14% 21 4 1 South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses 36 8 4,5 13 5 8 22% 8 0 0 South Brunswick 55+ 31 0 0 9 9 4 12% 2 0 0 South Brunswick Single Family 102 5 20.5 15 10 11 11% 11 4 1 Monroe: All Styles 428 30 28.8 79 49 65 15% 62 7 5 Monroe: 55+ 268 24 12 54 30 44 16% 40 5 2 Monroe: Single Family 160 6 26.5 25 19 21 13% 22 2 3
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 196 21 9 54 3 22 11% 21 18 36 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 61 10 6 27 17 8 13% 6 8 16 South Brunswick 55+ 30 1 30 2 1 3 1% 2 3 3 South Brunswick Single Family 105 11 9.5 25 14 11 10% 13 7 21 Monroe: All Styles 471 30 16 107 77 57 12% 62 4 57 Monroe: 55+ 302 27 13 70 43 36 12% 26 3 44 Monroe: Single Family 168 13 13 37 24 21 13% 36 1 12
  • Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .
  • Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal
  • Source: otteau.com
  • West Windsor Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 46 6 7.6 $500-750k 24 3 8 $750-999 8 3 2.6 $999 + 4 0 99
  • Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in… I want to live/ sell in Princeton…..
  • Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • Hopewell Twp. 120 current active listings 14 reported sales in last 30 days = 9 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. All Prices: All Styles
  • Hopewell Twp. 62 current active listings 7 reported sales in last 30 days = 8.8 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 0-$600, All Styles
  • Hopewell Twp. 7 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 1.75 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 0-$600k Townhouses
  • Hopewell Twp. 30 current active listings 0 reported sales in last 30 days = 99 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 999+ Single Family
  • 2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS
  • Source: MLS Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2007
  • Source: MLS Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2009
  • 3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lower bids… Source: MLS
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 196 21 9 54 3 22 11% 21 18 36 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 61 10 6 27 17 8 13% 6 8 16 South Brunswick 55+ 30 1 30 2 1 3 1% 2 3 3 South Brunswick Single Family 105 11 9.5 25 14 11 10% 13 7 21
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Seeing the Opportunity.
  • Seeing the Opportunity.
    • Q. If this were 2005, where would you place the Price and Rate dots?
    Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low A. In 2005, the V would look somewhat like this one, where prices were on the high end of the scale and rates were in the lower range.
  • Seizing the Opportunity.
    • In recent history, there has never been an opportunity like this, with low prices and low rates. In real estate, this circular area at the bottom of the V is called the “Buying Zone” – it’s an unbelievable time to buy.
    Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low
  • Jeff Smith, Gold Services Manager/ Loan Officer Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.
  • ‘ I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
  •   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $319,130 2nd Year 0% $319,130 3rd Year 1% $322,321 4th Year 3% $331,990 5th Year 5% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Tax Benefit   Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $44,200 Create Equity v Pay Rent
  • + The Amortization Schedule on a Loan = Total 5 Year Gain: $59,922 Yearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Year Beginning Balance Payment Principal Interest Cumulative Principal Cumulative Interest Ending Balance 2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.00 2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.70 2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.72 2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.36 2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08
  • A Great Time to Buy a Home First-time homebuyers can receive a tax credit up to $8,000! NEW TAX CREDIT Current homeowners may be eligible for a tax credit up to $6,500!
  • Tax Credit Overview
    • In 2008, Congress created a tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
    • The tax credit was extremely successful in generating home sales and stimulating the overall economy.
    • Realizing the importance of homeownership for individuals and the greater economy, the government enhanced and extended the homebuyer tax credit.
    • On Nov. 6, President Obama signed a bill that extended the existing tax credit for first-time buyers and created a new provision for eligible move-up buyers.
  • The NEW First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Amount 10 percent of the cost of the home, not to exceed $8,000 Property Any home that will be used as a principal residence including single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops; not to exceed $800,000 Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $125,000 for single or $225,000 for joint tax returns INCREASED (Effective Nov. 7, 2009) ! First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in three years prior to purchase Limitation If home is sold within three years of purchase, entire amount of credit is recaptured Effective Date Purchases with closing/settlement between Nov. 7, 2009, and June 30, 2010 EXTENDED ! Deadline Written binding contract on or before April 30, 2010, with closing/settlement by June 30, 2010 EXTENDED !
  • The NEW Current Homeowner Tax Credit Amount Up to $6,500 Eligibility Must have used the home sold or being sold as a principal residence consecutively for 5 of the previous 8 years Purchased Home Any home that will be used as a principal residence including single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops; not to exceed $800,000 Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $125,000 for single or $225,000 for joint tax returns Recapture If home is sold within three years of purchase, entire amount of credit is recaptured Effective Date Purchases with closing/settlement between Nov. 7, 2009, and June 30, 2010 Deadline Written binding contract on or before April 30, 2010, with closing/settlement by June 30, 2010
  • Tax Credit FAQs
  • What Are the Deadlines for Claiming the Credit?
    • A written binding contract to purchase must be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 .
    • The purchase transaction must close by June 30, 2010 .
  • What if You Exceed the Income Limits?
    • Individuals with adjusted gross income of up to $125,000 and married couples with income up to $225,000 can claim the full credit.
    • The amount of the tax credit decreases as incomes reach the maximum limits of $145,000 for singles and $245,000 for couples.
    • Singles earning more than $145,000 and couples earning more than $245,000 are not eligible for the credit.
  • What Properties are Eligible?
    • To claim the tax credit, the property must be used as a principal residence. This is generally considered to be the home where you spend 50 percent or more of your time. It can be a condo, single-family detached home, co-op, townhouse or something similar.
    • The home must be located in the United States.
    • Vacation homes and rental properties are not eligible.
    • For new construction, the purchase date is the date you occupy the home. As a result, you must move in by June 30, 2010, to claim the credit.
  • When Can You Claim the Credit?
    • Buyers purchasing homes on or before Dec. 31, 2009, may claim the credit on their 2009 tax returns.
    • Buyers purchasing in 2010 will have the option to:
      • Claim the credit on their 2009 return, even if the purchase is completed after Dec. 31, 2009;
      • File an amended return for 2009 if their purchase is completed after April 15, 2010; or,
      • Claim the credit on their 2010 tax returns.
  • Any Other Questions?
  • How much house can I really afford?
    • The first step is to meet with me!
    Establish Your Buying Power
  • Factors to consider when buying and selling… Source: MLS 1. Inventory(supply and demand) 2. Interest Rates
  • Interest Rates Remain Low Source: Freddie Mac
  • The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…
  • ‘ Great speech but does it really work?
  • We know the best way to evaluate pricing
    • Does this really work?
  • We know the best way to evaluate pricing
    • Does this really work?
  • 2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home .
  • The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .
  • Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…
  • … And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged
  • “ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”
  • Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …
  • … Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged
  • Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
  • Why Promote Home Staging ? The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.
  • The average marketing time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80% less . Why Promote Home Staging ?
  • 3. The Effect of ‘ Pre-Inspection’ on the Sale of Your Home.
  • What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’
  • Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.  
  • PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
  • All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..
  • PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2% .
  • Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
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  • Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days. Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.
  • Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?
  • Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
    • Time is money.
    The Weichert Difference
    • Stress kills.
    • Time is life.
    • Educate You.
    • Negotiate on your behalf.
    • Offer advice on due diligence.
    • Manage all aspects of the transaction process.
    What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?
  • We’re Here to Help
    • The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.
  • Become a Fan! www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.slideshare.net/jdwilton Presentation available at all 3 sites, download file through Monday.
  • Resource and website list:
    • Realtor.org
    • http://www.facebook.com/pages/
    • NAR-Research/73888294183#
    • Remodeling.com
  • Resource and Website List
    • http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx Remodeling.com
    • www.Otteau.com
    • www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
  • Resource and Website List:
    • www.Housemaster.com
    • www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
  • Resource and website list:
    • www.Stagedhomes.com
    • www.realestatestagingassociation.com
    • www.foreclosurepoint.com
    • www.realtytrac.com
  • Happy Thanksgiving!