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February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar.

February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar.

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  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your Associates. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • (elicit responses)
  • (elicit responses)
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • 28
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • 28
  • Create your own table to approach the aspects of the marketplace that you consider most relevant and valuable to your associates. For ideas on what to cover, refer to the tables in the Planning Day Presentation on your Planning Day 2005 CD. For example, you might discuss the market conditions of different communities or price ranges each week.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • New Stats Pulled Off StagedHomes.com
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.
  • Review the generic sample calculation and/or a customized calculation you prepared for your office market area. Follow the instructions below to update this slide with customized information for your office. Save the Sales Meeting Guide presentation to your C drive. Open the Sales Meeting Guide presentation from your C drive. Scroll down to the “Sample Market Absorption Rate” slide in the weekly training section of the presentation. Double-click on the slide to be able to make edits. Click in each section of the formula to edit text. Save the document to save edits.

February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar Presentation Transcript

  • Weichert, Princeton Office February Market Update Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.
  • Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ O 609-921-1900 www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton
  • The presentation will be posted on the following site immediately after today’s session to the following site. Will be available for downloads thru Monday. www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton
  • Agenda
    • The Market
    • The Federal Tax Credit
    • Strategies for Buying
    • Strategies for Selling
  • Agenda
    • The Market
  • WSJ estimates over $8.4 trillion lost in the stock market crash. Source: wsj
  • From the end of 2006 through March 31, it says, the total market value of U.S. household real estate fell from $21.9 trillion to $17.9 trillion. That's about 18%. (The lost wealth works out at just over $13,000 for every person in the country.) Source: wsj
  • The consequences nationally… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  • The consequences for NJ… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  • Source: www.otteau.com
  • What about the Real Estate Markets….?
  • A real estate market correction was taking shape the summer of 2001… Inventory was growing… Rates were edging up… Contracts were slowing…
  • Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2009 from 2008 NY (Ashby) -9.26% CT (Doepper) +1.44% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +.32% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +.32% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +.28% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +.08% Southern NJ (Williams) -.03%
  • 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
    • First Time home buyers were priced out of the market
    • Financing was too available (ie ‘subprime’)
    • Banks made bad bets (ie that home prices would continue to rise)Lehman, Merril, over 300+ fail
    • Credit freeze, affects ‘main street’ business…
  • 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
    • First Time home buyers were priced out of the market
    • Financing was too available (ie ‘subprime’)
    • Banks made bad bets (ie that home prices would continue to rise)Lehman, Merril, over 300+ fail
    • Credit freeze, affects ‘main street’ business…
  • Forecast for 2010 (mid-Atlantic region) Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • 2010: NAR Forecast
    • NAR Positive National Forecast
  • 2010: More Balanced Market Absorption Rates Jan 2009 vs January 2010 Region 2009 2010 Var % Chappell 3.7 1.6 -56.8% Green 3.4 3.5 2.9% Minsky 11.1 8.1 -27.0% McDonald 21.6 8.9 -58.8% Williams 18.5 9.1 -50.8% Waters 22.5 11.7 -48.0% Prevete 23.5 12.5 -46.8% Bixon 18.8 14.0 -25.5% Doepper 31.2 19.6 -37.2% Ashby 33.5 21.3 -36.4% Total 18.78 11.03 -41.3%
  • 2010: A More Balanced Market
    • Shortage of Listings
    • $350,000 and under
    • (mid-atlantic)
  • 2010: A More Balanced Market
    • $350,000 & Below
    • Sellers Market
    • Scarce, low inventory
    • Price stability, moderate increase
    • 1-2 months absorption rates
    • Highly competitive listing environment
    • $1,500,000 Plus
    • Buyer’s Market
    • Excessive inventory levels
    • Price instability, reduction
    • 20+ months absorption rates
    • Highly influenced by finance securitization
  • 2010: A More Balanced Market
    • Foreclosures/Distressed Properties Stabilize
    • Foreclosure Averages
    • National Average: 14.41%
    • MD: 8.24%
    • NY: 7.78%
    • CT: 7.0%
    • DC: 6.42%
    • PA: 6.12%
    • DE: 5.92%
    • NJ: 5.69%
    • VA: 5.29%
  • 2010: A More Balanced Market
    • Foreclosures within the Company-owned Footprint
    Region Jan-09 Jan-10 %Var Waters 6620 3541 -46.5% McDonald 17121 10157 -40.7% Green 23570 14706 -37.6% Minsky 15224 10189 -33.1% Ashby/Doepper 14736 11975 -18.7% Chappell 16522 14082 -14.8% Bixon 12605 11484 -8.9% Williams 6225 6287 1.0% Prevete 8150 9871 21.1% Total 120,773 92,292 -23.6%
  • Title Theory vs. Lien Theory Generally, foreclosure in Title States occurs through a non-judicial proceeding, while Lien States are conducted via judicial methods; however it varies with each state. This can greatly effect the timing of the foreclosure process. Information obtained from www.realtytrac.com
  • 2010: A More Balanced Market
    • No Second Wave Foreclosures
    • in the Company-owned Footprint
    • (mid-atlantic)
  • A long term outlook in NJ & Mercer County Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • NJ Housing Permits Source: Census RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS AUTHORIZED 2000-2008 COUNTY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Atlantic County 1,625 1,685 2,020 2,285 2,075 2,002 1,893 1,136 794 15,515 Bergen County 2,847 1,784 1,771 1,289 2,142 2,972 2,164 2,957 1,311 19,237 Burlington County 2,775 2,184 2,359 1,805 1,516 1,475 2,784 1,037 976 16,911 Camden County 796 757 1,160 1,934 1,413 1,706 1,183 1,191 895 11,035 Cape May County 1,242 1,403 1,422 1,693 2,149 2,433 1,580 1,081 485 13,488 Cumberland County 255 256 310 374 566 630 737 683 336 4,147 Essex County 1,491 1,548 1,588 2,235 2,343 3,128 3,284 1,854 1,314 18,785 Gloucester County 1,337 1,635 1,802 1,859 2,050 2,075 1,141 920 788 13,607 Hudson County 1,338 1,116 1,534 2,116 3,808 4,498 4,275 3,081 3,229 24,995 Hunterdon County 616 685 602 814 648 506 350 316 206 4,743 Mercer County 1,283 1,355 1,428 1,188 1,641 1,296 847 700 625 10,363 Middlesex County 2,460 1,884 1,999 2,306 2,622 3,206 2,567 1,597 1,020 19,661 Monmouth County 2,912 2,194 2,372 2,756 2,628 2,584 2,820 2,060 1,526 21,852 Morris County 2,684 1,577 1,914 1,555 1,427 2,503 1,670 1,052 795 15,177 Ocean County 5,633 3,830 3,534 4,009 3,818 2,904 2,114 2,160 1,527 29,529 Passaic County 457 631 689 829 763 647 850 760 432 6,058 Salem County 161 180 170 307 334 297 298 148 198 2,093 Somerset County 2,282 1,439 1,530 1,260 1,362 1,220 1,058 926 791 11,868 Sussex County 719 808 679 587 612 668 603 360 302 5,338 Union County 776 551 681 1,198 1,399 1,278 1,593 1,123 673 9,272 Warren County 896 765 877 585 620 560 512 258 146 5,219 New Jersey 34,585 28,267 30,441 32,984 35,936 38,588 34,323 25,400 18,369 278,893
  • NJ Housing Permits Source: Census In thousand units
  • Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial
  • Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf (Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate 2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6% 2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7% 2000 Total Population 350,761
  • Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf Estimated Pop. by Age Pop by Age, % Est. 2013 Median Age 39 2008 Median Age 38 2000 Median Age 36 2008 Total Pop 0-19 98,816 26.6% 2008 Total Pop 20-29 49,307 13.3% 2008 Total Pop 30-39 49,497 13.3% 2008 Total Pop 40-49 58,288 15.7% 2008 Total Pop 50-59 51,605 13.9% 2008 Total Pop 60+ 64,450 17.3%
  • Fast Forward to today… Have we hit the bottom of the market yet…?!?!?!? Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • Where is the bottom of the market? “ The effects (of foreclosures) are continued declining prices….probably another 5-8%* to the bottom.  As for the effect of foreclosure pricing, all of these problems are causing home prices to go lower than is necessary from an affordability perspective .   That’s because everyone is now worrying about job security.  As a result, the recovery will take place at a faster pace once it gets started.” – Jeff Otteau (otteau.com- January 2009)
  • ‘ Real Estate is a Bottom up market…’ “ Everything I am seeing tells me we have arrived at the bottom of the market, specifically in the popular and affordable price ranges.” J. Weichert 6/2009
  • And… Otteau.com
  • Statistically speaking, there are grounds for modest optimism that prices will trend upward in the near future, said the market analyst Jeffrey Otteau, whose  Otteau Valuation Group continuously tracks sales data in 21 counties for real estate companies. Mr. Otteau cited one recent report indicating that  New Jersey  was one of a half dozen “breakout” states in which prices had already begun to creep up in the second half of 2009. That report came from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which indexes purchase prices of homes with mortgages guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Looking at data from the entire period of the slide — the start of 2006 through the third quarter of 2009 — Mr. Otteau concluded that the state’s residential market “didn’t get hammered all that bad” compared with the nation at large, and was likely to recover faster. Optimism About the New Year… -nytimes.com
  • Local Inventory Trends. Economics 101: As supply goes up, prices go ___. Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  • Listings from TREND MLS in Mercer County
  • Princeton Boro Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot
  • Princeton Twp Inventory Trends: 3 Year Snapshot
  • Lawrence Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Hopewell Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Ewing Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • West Windsor Inventory Trends: 4 Year View
  • Plainsboro Inventory Trends: 4 year View
  • Closed Homes Snapshot: 2007 2008 2009 Princeton Boro 87 72 61 Princeton Twp. 211 163 157 West Windsor 371 299 303 Lawrence 383 285 305 Hopewell 226 191 153 Plainsboro 273 214 231
  • Town 2007 Inven Count 2007 Pending Sales (prev 30 days) 2007 Absorb Rate 2008 Inven. Count 2008 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2008 Absorp. Rate 2009 Inven. Count 2009 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2009 Absorp. Rate (months) 2010 Inven. Count 2010 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2010 Absorp. Rate (months) Pton. Boro 38 4 9.5 51 0 99 41 0 9 25 7 3.5 Pton. Twp. 105 2 52.5 108 9 11 100 3 33 80 8 10 W. Windsor 137 25 5.4 119 12 7.9 113 15 7.5 96 8 12 Lawrence 172 26 6.6 183 14 13.07 155 13 11.9 201 17 11.8 East Windsor 179 19 9.4 177 21 8.4 176 10 17.6 162 12 13.5 Ewing 189 19 18.6 235 17 13.8 192 10 19.2 227 9 25.5 Hopewell Twp. 163 12 13.5 139 8 17.3 115 12 9.5 127 9 14 Cranbury 13 2 11.5 31 2 15.5 25 1 25 18 1 18 Plainsb. 125 11 11.3 100 14 6.92 70 8 8.75 56 10 5.6 S. Bruns. 197 27 7.3 172 17 10.7 205 10 21 151 18 9 Montgom 132 16 8.2 116 14 8.2 100 9 11.1 104 20 5.2 Hamilton 445 58 13.5 532 46 11.5 524 77 6.6 499 58 9 Cum. 1895 221 8.57 1963 174 11.2 1816 168 10.8 1746 177 9.8
  • 1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local
  • 1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…
  • Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .
  • Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • Town 2007 Inven Count 2007 Pending Sales (prev 30 days) 2007 Absorb Rate 2008 Inven. Count 2008 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2008 Absorp. Rate 2009 Inven. Count 2009 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2009 Absorp. Rate (months) 2010 Inven. Count 2010 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2010 Absorp. Rate (months) Pton. Boro 38 4 9.5 51 0 99 41 0 9 25 7 3.5 Pton. Twp. 105 2 52.5 108 9 11 100 3 33 80 8 10 W. Windsor 137 25 5.4 119 12 7.9 113 15 7.5 96 8 12 Lawrence 172 26 6.6 183 14 13.07 155 13 11.9 201 17 11.8 East Windsor 179 19 9.4 177 21 8.4 176 10 17.6 162 12 13.5 Ewing 189 19 18.6 235 17 13.8 192 10 19.2 227 9 25.5 Hopewell Twp. 163 12 13.5 139 8 17.3 115 12 9.5 127 9 14 Cranbury 13 2 11.5 31 2 15.5 25 1 25 18 1 18 Plainsb. 125 11 11.3 100 14 6.92 70 8 8.75 56 10 5.6 S. Bruns. 197 27 7.3 172 17 10.7 205 10 21 151 18 9 Montgom 132 16 8.2 116 14 8.2 100 9 11.1 104 20 5.2 Hamilton 445 58 13.5 532 46 11.5 524 77 6.6 499 58 9 Cum. 1895 221 8.57 1963 174 11.2 1816 168 10.8 1746 177 9.8
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 25 7 3.5 5 (2) 3 12% 1 0 2 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 9 1 9 1 0 1 11% 0 0 1 Pton-Boro Single Family 16 6 2.6 4 (2) 2 13% 1 0 1 Pton Twp: All Styles 80 8 10 18 10 17 22% 2 4 4 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 12 5 2.4 7 2 3 25% 0 2 2 Pton Twp: Single Family 68 3 22.6 11 8 14 21% 2 2 2
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 98 8 12 32 24 13 14% 1 9 11 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 19 2 9.5 5 3 3 16% 1 2 3 West Windsor 55+ 14 0 99 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 West Windsor Single Family 63 6 10.5 26 20 10 15% 0 7 8 Lawrence: All Styles 210 17 11.8 43 26 27 13% 10 6 7 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 61 6 10.1 10 4 15 24% 4 0 2 Lawrence: 55+ 26 0 99 6 6 0 0 3 2 1 Lawrence: Single Family 114 11 10.3 27 16 12 11% 3 4 4
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 227 9 25.2 58 49 39 17% 10 4 16 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 41 2 20.5 14 121 3 8% 3 1 4 Ewing 55+: 4 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ewing: Single Family 182 7 26 44 37 36 20% 7 3 12 East Windsor: All Styles 162 12 13.5 42 30 24 15% 7 0 10 East Windsor: Condo/ THouses 84 11 7.6 16 5 11 13% 5 0 6 East Windsor: 55+ 21 0 99 11 11 0 0 1 0 1 East Windsor: Single Family 57 1 57 15 14 13 23% 1 0 3
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 127 9 14 28 19 23 18% 9 7 11 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 7 1 7 1 0 1 14% 1 0 2 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 3 0 99 - - - - - - - Hopewell Twp Single Family 117 8 15 27 19 22 19% 8 7 9 Hamilton: All Styles 499 58 9 139 81 87 17% 30 30 38 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 98 14 7 34 20 16 16% 9 3 0 Hamilton: Single Family 368 38 10 105 67 71 19% 21 27 38 Hamilton: 55+ 33 6 5.5 - - - - - - -
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 89 18 5 29 11 17 19% 5 5 3 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 48 12 4 21 9 10 21% 3 3 3 Robbinsville 55+ - - - - - - - - - - Single Family 41 6 7 8 2 7 17% 2 2 0 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 56 4 14 14 10 6 11% 2 0 4 Pennington 21 2 10.5 6 4 3 14% 1 1 1 Hopewell Boro: All Styles 16 0 99 3 3 2 13% 2 0 1
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 56 10 5.6 20 10 9 16% 5 0 1 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 31 4 7.7 12 8 3 9% 3 0 0 Plainsboro 55+ 8 0 99 1 1 4 50% 1 0 0 Plainsboro Single Family 17 6 2.8 7 1 2 11% 1 0 1 Cranbury: All Styles 18 1 18 3 2 1 5% 4 0 0 Cranbury: 55+ 1 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cranbury: Single Family 17 1 17 3 2 1 5% 4 0 0
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 151 18 9 52 34 12 8% 12 4 20 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 28 6 5 17 11 1 6% 1 0 8 South Brunswick 55+ 33 1 33 11 10 1 30% 2 2 1 South Brunswick Single Family 90 7 13 24 17 10 11% 9 2 11 Monroe: All Styles 388 24 16 100 76 45 12% 38 4 27 Monroe: 55+ 237 21 13 52 31 31 13% 24 2 18 Monroe: Single Family 151 3 50 48 45 14 9% 14 2 9
  • Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgom. 104 20 5.2 44 24 20 20% 5 4 6 Hillsboro 178 32 5.5 52 20 32 18% 15 12 15 Rocky Hill 4 0 99 2 2 - - - - - Franklin 384 45 8.5 134 89 63 16% 37 13 25
  • Open House Guest Comparison
  • Months Supply of Lower Priced Single Family Homes Falling (national) Source: NAR (Unpublished data) Price Category August 2008 August 2009 $99,999 or less 6.8 4.3 $100,000 to 249,999 7.8 4.9 $250,000 to $499,999 10.2 6.4 $500,000 to $749,999 14.0 10.0 $750,000 to $999,999 16.5 10.5 $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 19.8 15.2 $2,000,000 or greater 32.0 31.7 All Single-family 10.0 8.2
  • Source: otteau.com, 4 th quarter 2009
  • Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal
  • Princeton Boro Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 8 2 4 $500-750k 6 0 99 $750-999 1 2 (.5) $999 + 11 1 11
  • West Windsor Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$350 27 3 9 $350-750 31 5 6.2 $750-999 13 2 6.5 $999 + 6 0 99
  • Hopewell Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$350 58 6 9.6 $350-750 25 1 25 $750-999 21 0 99 $999 + 33 0 99
  • Ewing Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months $0-100 12 0 99 $100-200 80 4 20 $200-350 122 10 12.2 350-450 12 2 6 450+ 1 0 99
  • Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in… I want to live/ sell in Princeton…..
  • Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • Princeton Twp. 84 current active listings 6 reported sales in last 30 days = 14 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. All Prices: All Styles
  • Princeton Twp. 14 current active listings 2 reported sales in last 30 days = 7 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 0-$600, All Styles
  • Princeton Twp. 6 current active listings 3 reported sales in last 30 days = 3 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 0-$600k Townhouses
  • Princeton Twp. 44 current active listings 0 reported sales in last 30 days = 99 months absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. 999+ Single Family
  • 2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS
  • Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2009
  • Source: MLS Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2009
  • 3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lower bids… Source: MLS
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 196 21 9 54 3 22 11% 21 18 36 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 61 10 6 27 17 8 13% 6 8 16 South Brunswick 55+ 30 1 30 2 1 3 1% 2 3 3 South Brunswick Single Family 105 11 9.5 25 14 11 10% 13 7 21
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Source: trend mls Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’
  • Seeing the Opportunity.
  • Seeing the Opportunity.
    • Q. If this were 2005, where would you place the Price and Rate dots?
    Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low A. In 2005, the V would look somewhat like this one, where prices were on the high end of the scale and rates were in the lower range.
  • Seizing the Opportunity.
    • In recent history, there has never been an opportunity like this, with low prices and low rates. In real estate, this circular area at the bottom of the V is called the “Buying Zone” – it’s an unbelievable time to buy.
    Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low
  • Kevin Reilly, Vice President Weichert Financial Services Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.
  • ‘ I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
  •   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $319,130 2nd Year 0% $319,130 3rd Year 1% $322,321 4th Year 3% $331,990 5th Year 5% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Tax Benefit   Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $44,200 Create Equity v Pay Rent
  •   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year 5 $319,130 2nd Year 3% $319,130 3rd Year 2% $322,321 4th Year 2% $331,990 5th Year 2% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590 Tax Benefit   Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $73,529 Create Equity v Pay Rent
  • + The Amortization Schedule on a Loan Yearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Year Beginning Balance Payment Principal Interest Cumulative Principal Cumulative Interest Ending Balance 2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.00 2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.70 2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.72 2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.36 2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08
  • Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500 + Amortization: $20,109 + Tax Benefit of Home Ownership $25,000 + Tax Credit: $8000 + Low Interest Rates: $5000 ___________________ total 5 year gain = $77,609
  • A Great Time to Buy a Home
    • NEW TAX CREDIT
    • First-time homebuyers can receive a tax credit up to $8,000!
    • Current homeowners may be eligible for a tax credit up to $6,500!
  • Tax Credit Overview
    • In 2008, Congress created a tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
    • The tax credit was extremely successful in generating home sales and stimulating the overall economy.
    • Realizing the importance of homeownership for individuals and the greater economy, the government enhanced and extended the homebuyer tax credit.
    • On Nov. 6, President Obama signed a bill that extended the existing tax credit for first-time buyers and created a new provision for eligible move-up buyers.
  • The NEW First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Amount 10 percent of the cost of the home, not to exceed $8,000 Property Any home that will be used as a principal residence including single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops; not to exceed $800,000 Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $125,000 for single or $225,000 for joint tax returns INCREASED (Effective Nov. 7, 2009) ! First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in three years prior to purchase Limitation If home is sold within three years of purchase, entire amount of credit is recaptured Effective Date Purchases with closing/settlement between Nov. 7, 2009, and June 30, 2010 EXTENDED ! Deadline Written binding contract on or before April 30, 2010, with closing/settlement by June 30, 2010 EXTENDED !
  • The NEW Current Homeowner Tax Credit Amount Up to $6,500 Eligibility Must have used the home sold or being sold as a principal residence consecutively for 5 of the previous 8 years Purchased Home Any home that will be used as a principal residence including single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops; not to exceed $800,000 Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $125,000 for single or $225,000 for joint tax returns Recapture If home is sold within three years of purchase, entire amount of credit is recaptured Effective Date Purchases with closing/settlement between Nov. 7, 2009, and June 30, 2010 Deadline Written binding contract on or before April 30, 2010, with closing/settlement by June 30, 2010
  • Tax Credit FAQs
  • What Are the Deadlines for Claiming the Credit?
    • A written binding contract to purchase must be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 .
    • The purchase transaction must close by June 30, 2010 .
  • What if You Exceed the Income Limits?
    • Individuals with adjusted gross income of up to $125,000 and married couples with income up to $225,000 can claim the full credit.
    • The amount of the tax credit decreases as incomes reach the maximum limits of $145,000 for singles and $245,000 for couples.
    • Singles earning more than $145,000 and couples earning more than $245,000 are not eligible for the credit.
  • What Properties are Eligible?
    • To claim the tax credit, the property must be used as a principal residence. This is generally considered to be the home where you spend 50 percent or more of your time. It can be a condo, single-family detached home, co-op, townhouse or something similar.
    • The home must be located in the United States.
    • Vacation homes and rental properties are not eligible.
    • For new construction, the purchase date is the date you occupy the home. As a result, you must move in by June 30, 2010, to claim the credit.
  • When Can You Claim the Credit?
    • Buyers purchasing homes on or before Dec. 31, 2009, may claim the credit on their 2009 tax returns.
    • Buyers purchasing in 2010 will have the option to:
      • Claim the credit on their 2009 return, even if the purchase is completed after Dec. 31, 2009;
      • File an amended return for 2009 if their purchase is completed after April 15, 2010; or,
      • Claim the credit on their 2010 tax returns.
  • Any Other Questions?
  • How much house can I really afford?
    • The first step is to meet with Jeff Smith!
    Establish Your Buying Power
  • Factors to consider when buying and selling… Source: MLS 1. Inventory(supply and demand) 2. Interest Rates
  • Interest Rates Remain Low Source: Freddie Mac
  • The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…
  • ‘ Great speech but does it really work?
  • We know the best way to evaluate pricing
    • Does this really work?
  • We know the best way to evaluate pricing
    • Does this really work?
  • 2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home .
  • The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .
  • Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…
  • … And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged
  • “ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”
  • Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …
  • … Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged
  • Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
  • Why Promote Home Staging ? The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.
  • The average marketing time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80% less . Why Promote Home Staging ?
  • 3. The Effect of ‘ Pre-Inspection’ on the Sale of Your Home.
  • What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’
  • Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.  
  • PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
  • All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..
  • PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2% .
  • Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
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  • Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days. Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.
  • Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?
  • Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
    • Time is money.
    The Weichert Difference
    • Stress kills.
    • Time is life.
    • Educate You.
    • Negotiate on your behalf.
    • Offer advice on due diligence.
    • Manage all aspects of the transaction process.
    What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?
  • We’re Here to Help
    • The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.
  • Become a Fan! www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.slideshare.net/jdwilton Presentation available at all 3 sites, download file through Monday.
  • Resource and website list:
    • Realtor.org
    • http://www.facebook.com/pages/
    • NAR-Research/73888294183#
    • Remodeling.com
  • Resource and Website List
    • http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx Remodeling.com
    • www.Otteau.com
    • www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
  • Resource and Website List:
    • www.Housemaster.com
    • www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
  • Resource and website list:
    • www.Stagedhomes.com
    • www.realestatestagingassociation.com
    • www.foreclosurepoint.com
    • www.realtytrac.com
  • Happy Thanksgiving!