•Why is Storage Important
•How Much Storage is Needed
•Why is Storage so Hard
•Possible Futures
 National Renewable Energy Laboratories
 Website is http://www.nrel.gov
 Ludington Power Storage information is
directl...
 Study about impact of different renewable levels
 Looked at 20% to 90% renewable levels in the
electrical grid
 Study ...
 Variable generation – covers offshore/onshore
wind, solar photovoltic (PV), and solar thermal
 Overnight capital cost –...
 Several reasons
 Geography – grid cannot move the energy to
where it could be used
 Temporal – grid cannot store the e...
• Electrical usage is about 40% of total US
energy consumption
• Only 34% of CO2 emissions
• US uses 2300 trillion watt ho...
 Ludington is about 1.8
GWatts
 27 Billion gallons
 More than 8 hours of storage
 1000 acres
 9% of US storage
 Open...
 Many countries adding wind and solar PV
 Many states have renewable energy mandates
 Emphasis is on wind, solar, and b...
 GE recently announced a battery option for
their 1.6 Megawatt Wind Turbine
 Standard version stores 50 KWHours
 How mu...
 GE recently announced a battery option for
their 1.6 Megawatt Wind Turbine
 Standard version stores 50 KWHours
 How mu...
 Minute by Minute
 Solar PV most sensitive
 Hour by Hour
 Solar PV and Wind both
 Day by Day
 All Solar and Wind
 S...
 The grid distributes power at light speed
 Speed of light in copper not in a vacuum
 Sudden changes in load or in dema...
 Baseload Power – Plants run 24/7/365
 Nukes, most hydro and coal plants
 Load Following – Many plants run some part
of...
 Load on the grid changes with day and time
 Biggest change is day to night
Night load is 50 to 60 percent of weekday lo...
 Another problem is sudden changes
 From NREL, ERCOT load with simulated wind
 Four ways to handle variable generation
 Over-engineer and accept curtailment at times
 Load management to reduce peak...
 5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load
 100 terawatt hours lost per year
 At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dol...
 5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load
 100 terawatt hours lost per year
 At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dol...
 5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load
 100 terawatt hours lost per year
 At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dol...
 5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load
 100 terawatt hours lost per year
 At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dol...
As a result of the modeling assumptions, most of the new storage is CAES;
however, the tradeoff between CAES and PSH is la...
 Storage needs lots of usage to be practical
 Outside edges of the curve are rare
 But the right side of the curve has ...
 Assuming a fixed life and KWh dominates
 (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF
 OCC – Overnight Capital Cost per KWh
 ...
 (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF
 Ludington is about $100 per KWh
 CRF is based on useful years and interest rate ...
 Pumped hydro runs around $100 per KWh but
$2000 per KW
 For every 6 KWHours, we need $2000 of KW
capacity
 2000/6 is 3...
 Ludington is already cost effective
 Even before Wind and Solar were common
Ludington was built
 Getting an $800 Milli...
 Ludington is marginal, nearly not worth it
 Pumped hydro has scaling issues
 No such thing as a small pumped hydro sta...
 (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF
 (333 * .054 + 1)/(8.76 * .25) = 8.7 ¢/KWh
 (17.94 + 1 )/(8.76 * .25)
 (4.0 / .8...
 Time of day shifting – output runs 6 hours a day
 6/24 is .25
 Day to day shifting – output runs 10 hours but only
eve...
 Hardest area to estimate
 NREL report suggests 100 to 150 GWHours
 I think they are optimistic
 Their daily wind and ...
 Energy density
 Power density
 Environmental impact
 Scale issues
 Use of rare/sensitive
materials
 Efficiency
 Re...
 Capital Cost
 Very important – running $333 for grid storage
 Operating and Maintenance Cost
 Also important – pumped...
 Energy Density
 Not very important – Pumped hydro is really bad
 Power Density
 Somewhat important – Pumped hydro is ...
 Use of rare/sensitive materials
 May be critical as grid storage is huge
 Responsiveness
 Pumped hydro is 2 or 3 minu...
 Potential energy has low energy density
 1 foot-pound is 0.000376616097 watt hours
 1 gallon 300 feet up is .9 watt ho...
 Stores electrical energy directly with minimal
conversion cost
 Very fast charging and energy release
 Does not store ...
 Graphene based supercapacitor announced
 Very early days
 Improved energy density – 60 KWhrs per liter
 Very good for...
 Store energy in a large rotating high density
wheel
 Very fast response
 Does not scale very well
 Leaks energy but s...
 Store energy as heat – liquid salt
 Good energy density
 Leak rate depends on quality of
insulation
 Day to Day is po...
 Recovery of Power takes time
 Use molten salt to boil water and spin turbines
 Needs some amount of water
 Does not s...
 Store energy by lifting something up
 Comes in several forms
 Costs are low but so is energy density
 Ludington is a perfect example
 Big plant requiring lots of area and volume
 Needs lots of elevation near large body o...
 Slate (www.slate.com) had a posting about
using rail tracks
 Sounds good where pumped hydro is out
 But find a train t...
 Abbreviates to CAES
 Many designs out there
 Because temperature, pressure, volume are
related CAES is an engineering ...
 Store into high pressure cylinders
 Split the heat away and store separately
 One example is Lightsail
Energy density ...
 There is more than one battery chemistry
 Batteries have been researched for years
 No silver bullets but some possibi...
 Bad points
 Some types use rare or dangerous metals
 Most don't last many cycles
 Some need high temperatures
 Well researched
 Lead can be dangerous
 Poor and uncertain cycle lifetime
 Bad ESOI – 2 to 3
 High quality lithium ores are rare
 Cost is pretty high
 Fire risk not entirely understood
 Energy density is pretty ...
 High operating temperature
 Good energy density and power density
 Common materials
 No long term risk to ecology
 E...
 EOS Energy Storage is a new player
 Impressive but unproven claims
 Cost - $1000/KW and $160/KWh
 30 year lifetime wi...
 Storing Excess Variable Generation as Fuel
 Not biomass!
 Direct conversion of wind, solar PV or solar
thermal into fu...
 Electrolysis is well understood
 Currently requires rare materials
 Hydrogen gets lots of press
 Poor energy density ...
 Starts with Methane – CH4
 Works well with current infrastructure
 Not the best energy density
 Ethane – C2H6
 More ...
 Methanol – CH3OH
 Good energy density
 Moderately toxic but by-products are not an issue
 Ethanol - CH5OH
 Better en...
 Ammonia – NH4
 Seriously toxic in moderate to high concentrations
 Good energy density
 Important precursor in agricu...
 Old Model
 Storage lets utilities have a higher percentage of
base load
 Storage needed to be efficient since the inpu...
 New Model
 Storage lets utilities avoid curtailment
 Less important to be efficient because input
would be wasted with...
 We don't see any big advances in grid level
storage
 Pumped hydro and underground CAES are the
only workable solutions
...
 At least one technology improves grid storage
economics substantially
 Supercapacitor, zinc air, CAES, or something els...
Skeptics3
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Transcript of "Skeptics3"

  1. 1. •Why is Storage Important •How Much Storage is Needed •Why is Storage so Hard •Possible Futures
  2. 2.  National Renewable Energy Laboratories  Website is http://www.nrel.gov  Ludington Power Storage information is directly from Consumers Energy website - http://www.consumersenergy.com/content.aspx?id=1830  Energy for Future Presidents – Richard Muller  Simple web searchs for the rest
  3. 3.  Study about impact of different renewable levels  Looked at 20% to 90% renewable levels in the electrical grid  Study got lots of media attention  Reporting was mostly superficial  Study is very impressive and well done  May be a bit optimistic on two points It does not model the effect of day to day changes Loss of base load efficiency may reduce CO2 reduction
  4. 4.  Variable generation – covers offshore/onshore wind, solar photovoltic (PV), and solar thermal  Overnight capital cost – cost of building a plant if you could do it in a single day  Capital Recovery Factor – multiplier against overnight capital cost to get yearly cost  Dispatchable – generator runs when requested  Curtailment – when a generator produces energy that the grid must refuse
  5. 5.  Several reasons  Geography – grid cannot move the energy to where it could be used  Temporal – grid cannot store the energy to use at a better time  Quality – voltage or wave pattern are wrong  Curtailment is a very bad thing  Economic value not who gets paid
  6. 6. • Electrical usage is about 40% of total US energy consumption • Only 34% of CO2 emissions • US uses 2300 trillion watt hours in a year
  7. 7.  Ludington is about 1.8 GWatts  27 Billion gallons  More than 8 hours of storage  1000 acres  9% of US storage  Opened in 1973  Largest storage site in the world when new  Now the second largest in US, fifth in the world  Bath County VA is largest at 3 GWatts
  8. 8.  Many countries adding wind and solar PV  Many states have renewable energy mandates  Emphasis is on wind, solar, and biomass  Local production is also given special treatment  Wind and solar are variable driven by Mother Nature  If you don't need the power when it comes, too bad  Storage lets you use the power when needed
  9. 9.  GE recently announced a battery option for their 1.6 Megawatt Wind Turbine  Standard version stores 50 KWHours  How much is that in hours?
  10. 10.  GE recently announced a battery option for their 1.6 Megawatt Wind Turbine  Standard version stores 50 KWHours  How much is that in hours?  About 2 minutes
  11. 11.  Minute by Minute  Solar PV most sensitive  Hour by Hour  Solar PV and Wind both  Day by Day  All Solar and Wind  Seasonal  Mostly Solar but Wind to a limited extent
  12. 12.  The grid distributes power at light speed  Speed of light in copper not in a vacuum  Sudden changes in load or in demand cause variations in voltage  Tight limits on what is allowed Minor variations cause local issues Major variations can cause blackouts  Today's grid has little need for large scale storage  Built to match yesterday's technology
  13. 13.  Baseload Power – Plants run 24/7/365  Nukes, most hydro and coal plants  Load Following – Many plants run some part of most days  Small coal, some hydro, gas combined cycle, biomass  Peakers – Plants run during the biggest loads  Open cycle gas turbines  Even some oil-fired plants for the hottest days
  14. 14.  Load on the grid changes with day and time  Biggest change is day to night Night load is 50 to 60 percent of weekday load  Next is workday to weekend day Weekend day is about 75 percent of workday  Last is normal day to hot day Depends strongly on region – Not sure how much
  15. 15.  Another problem is sudden changes  From NREL, ERCOT load with simulated wind
  16. 16.  Four ways to handle variable generation  Over-engineer and accept curtailment at times  Load management to reduce peaks and valleys  Move electricity between regions  Store energy at valleys and release at peaks
  17. 17.  5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load  100 terawatt hours lost per year  At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dollars
  18. 18.  5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load  100 terawatt hours lost per year  At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dollars  100% increase in load management
  19. 19.  5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load  100 terawatt hours lost per year  At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dollars  100% increase in load management  100% increase in high tension lines
  20. 20.  5.5% curtailment at 80% renewable load  100 terawatt hours lost per year  At 5 cents per kilowatt hour, $5 Billion dollars  100% increase in load management  100% increase in high tension lines  400% to 650% increase in storage  From 20 GWatts to 100-150 Gwatts  Store/release 200 to 300 terawatt hours per year
  21. 21. As a result of the modeling assumptions, most of the new storage is CAES; however, the tradeoff between CAES and PSH is largely due to the data limitations in the ReEDS model, where the vast majority of potential PSH in much of the United States was not evaluated. In addition, the relative risk associated with CAES versus PSH was not considered. PSH is a proven tech- nology, while CAES has yet to be deployed in either bedded salt or in porous rock formations, which represents a large fraction of assumed deployments. The limited deployment of batteries estimated by ReEDS is due to their high cost and assumed minimal projected cost reduction over time as well as to a lack of full valuation of their benefits to bulk power and distribution systems. Overall, ReEDS results demonstrate an obvious discrepancy with relative histor- ical and proposed deployment of these technologies, where PSH dominates. The analysis of energy storage technologies for RE Futures demonstrates the need for more comprehensive estimates of the cost and resource availability for both CAES and PSH, as well as a more complete assessment of the various benefits of energy storage as renewable energy penetrations increase.
  22. 22.  Storage needs lots of usage to be practical  Outside edges of the curve are rare  But the right side of the curve has more power than it might appear
  23. 23.  Assuming a fixed life and KWh dominates  (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF  OCC – Overnight Capital Cost per KWh  CRF – Capital Recovery Factor  FOM – Fixed Operations and Maintenance  8.760 – Hours in a year/100  CEI – Cost of energy coming in  EFF – Efficiency of the storage  UR – Utilization Rate in Percent
  24. 24.  (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF  Ludington is about $100 per KWh  CRF is based on useful years and interest rate - .054 for 50 years, .36 for 3 years  FOM is usually between 1 and 10 percent of OCC – pumped hydro is the lowest  (100 * .054 + 1)/(8.76 * .25) = 2.9 ¢/KWh  (4.0 / .85) = 4.7 ¢/KWh  Call it 7.6 cents per Kwh
  25. 25.  Pumped hydro runs around $100 per KWh but $2000 per KW  For every 6 KWHours, we need $2000 of KW capacity  2000/6 is 333  (333 * .054 + 1)/(8.76 * .25) = 8.7 ¢/KWh  (4.0 / .85) = 4.7 ¢/KWh  Call it 13.5 cents per Kwh
  26. 26.  Ludington is already cost effective  Even before Wind and Solar were common Ludington was built  Getting an $800 Million upgrade to be more valuable in the age of Variable Generation
  27. 27.  Ludington is marginal, nearly not worth it  Pumped hydro has scaling issues  No such thing as a small pumped hydro station  Years to build  Limited locations Many locations have environmental issues  They don't store as much as it sounds Ludington stores 3 percent of what Michigan uses  All types of storage have issues
  28. 28.  (OCC*CRF + FOM)/(8.760*UR) + CEI/EFF  (333 * .054 + 1)/(8.76 * .25) = 8.7 ¢/KWh  (17.94 + 1 )/(8.76 * .25)  (4.0 / .85) = 4.7 ¢/KWh  First component most important  Need to keep OCC and CRF down  Nice to keep FOM down as well  Need to keep UR up  Second component less critical  Curtailment implies a very low value for CEI
  29. 29.  Time of day shifting – output runs 6 hours a day  6/24 is .25  Day to day shifting – output runs 10 hours but only every third day  10/24 * .333 is about .14  Seasonal shifting – output runs 10 hours a day but only 25 percent of the year  10/24 * .25 is about .10 but not full power  Closer to .05 or .06
  30. 30.  Hardest area to estimate  NREL report suggests 100 to 150 GWHours  I think they are optimistic  Their daily wind and solar numbers too steady  I think we will need twice as much  100 to 150 GWHours for time shifting  100 to 150 GWHours for day to day smoothing Fossil fuel usage will be a bit higher without this  Today we only have about 20 GWHours
  31. 31.  Energy density  Power density  Environmental impact  Scale issues  Use of rare/sensitive materials  Efficiency  Responsiveness  Energy loss over time  Capital cost  Operating and maintenance cost  Useful lifetime  Energy Stored Over Investment - ESOI
  32. 32.  Capital Cost  Very important – running $333 for grid storage  Operating and Maintenance Cost  Also important – pumped hydro is very low  Useful Lifetime  Long life time is critical – pumped hydro is 30+ years  Environmental Impact  Needs to be low as possible – Pumped hydro is bad
  33. 33.  Energy Density  Not very important – Pumped hydro is really bad  Power Density  Somewhat important – Pumped hydro is fair here  Scale Issues  Important to get off the ground  Efficiency  Important but less than you might think
  34. 34.  Use of rare/sensitive materials  May be critical as grid storage is huge  Responsiveness  Pumped hydro is 2 or 3 minutes so not a big issue  Energy loss over time  Low levels are ok but high levels are not  Energy Stored Over Investment (ESOI)  Need to beat lead-acid batteries at 3- but don't need to beat pumped hydro at 100+
  35. 35.  Potential energy has low energy density  1 foot-pound is 0.000376616097 watt hours  1 gallon 300 feet up is .9 watt hours  Chemical bonds are higher energy density  Battery powered cars go up hills lifting The batteries The car Passengers  Fuels like gasoline are even higher 6 gallons will push many cars further than a Tesla S
  36. 36.  Stores electrical energy directly with minimal conversion cost  Very fast charging and energy release  Does not store much power  Does not scale well  Leaks power over time  Good choice for second by second grid stability
  37. 37.  Graphene based supercapacitor announced  Very early days  Improved energy density – 60 KWhrs per liter  Very good for a supercapacitor  Very low for a battery  Low leakage  No idea about price yet
  38. 38.  Store energy in a large rotating high density wheel  Very fast response  Does not scale very well  Leaks energy but slowly  Good for both S/S and M/M grid stability storage  In use as grid storage in some locations
  39. 39.  Store energy as heat – liquid salt  Good energy density  Leak rate depends on quality of insulation  Day to Day is possible  Week long is hard but doable  Longer is probably out of reach  Integrates especially well with Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
  40. 40.  Recovery of Power takes time  Use molten salt to boil water and spin turbines  Needs some amount of water  Does not scale down well  Square-Cube impact on doubling size  Looks good for day level and week level storage  Cost structure is unclear
  41. 41.  Store energy by lifting something up  Comes in several forms  Costs are low but so is energy density
  42. 42.  Ludington is a perfect example  Big plant requiring lots of area and volume  Needs lots of elevation near large body of water  Takes about one minute to spin up  Subhydro is pumped hydro upside down  Large storage tanks at the bottom of the ocean Really big tanks mostly made out of concrete  All moving parts underwater Maintenance costs could be a killer
  43. 43.  Slate (www.slate.com) had a posting about using rail tracks  Sounds good where pumped hydro is out  But find a train that weighs as much as Ludington  Find a location where rock comes to the surface  Cut away a big cube and build motors underneath  Lift it up to store energy and lower to retrieve
  44. 44.  Abbreviates to CAES  Many designs out there  Because temperature, pressure, volume are related CAES is an engineering challenge  Some grid storage already  Large scale usually means pressurizing a cavern  Finding good locations is hard  Only been done a few times, cost is unclear
  45. 45.  Store into high pressure cylinders  Split the heat away and store separately  One example is Lightsail Energy density is 13 gallons per KWh Better than pumped hydro, worse than most batteries  Store into tanks underwater  Hydrostor is trying this out near Toronto  Not clear what the advantage would be
  46. 46.  There is more than one battery chemistry  Batteries have been researched for years  No silver bullets but some possibilities  Good points  Good energy density  Mostly good power density and responsiveness  Good efficiency  Pretty scalable
  47. 47.  Bad points  Some types use rare or dangerous metals  Most don't last many cycles  Some need high temperatures
  48. 48.  Well researched  Lead can be dangerous  Poor and uncertain cycle lifetime  Bad ESOI – 2 to 3
  49. 49.  High quality lithium ores are rare  Cost is pretty high  Fire risk not entirely understood  Energy density is pretty good  Power density is worse than lead acid but pretty good
  50. 50.  High operating temperature  Good energy density and power density  Common materials  No long term risk to ecology  Expensive but might improve with scale  Current models have fire hazard
  51. 51.  EOS Energy Storage is a new player  Impressive but unproven claims  Cost - $1000/KW and $160/KWh  30 year lifetime with one full cycle per day  High energy density  Fast response  At least fair power density  Main materials are cheap and non-toxic
  52. 52.  Storing Excess Variable Generation as Fuel  Not biomass!  Direct conversion of wind, solar PV or solar thermal into fuel  Done in the laboratory  Nothing scales today
  53. 53.  Electrolysis is well understood  Currently requires rare materials  Hydrogen gets lots of press  Poor energy density when a gas even pressurized  Liquified hydrogen is dangerous and inefficient  Many metals turn brittle with long exposure  Hydrogen can be mixed with methane  Works well with our current infrastructure  May be limited to 10-20%
  54. 54.  Starts with Methane – CH4  Works well with current infrastructure  Not the best energy density  Ethane – C2H6  More changes needed in infrastructure  Energy density improves  Propane – C3H8  Changes needed same as ethane  Energy density still improving
  55. 55.  Methanol – CH3OH  Good energy density  Moderately toxic but by-products are not an issue  Ethanol - CH5OH  Better energy density  Not toxic in low concentrations  Propanol CH7OH  Don't know much about this
  56. 56.  Ammonia – NH4  Seriously toxic in moderate to high concentrations  Good energy density  Important precursor in agricultural usage
  57. 57.  Old Model  Storage lets utilities have a higher percentage of base load  Storage needed to be efficient since the input had marginal value  Few surprises so cheap KWHours was more important than cheap KW
  58. 58.  New Model  Storage lets utilities avoid curtailment  Less important to be efficient because input would be wasted without storage  Sudden increases and decreases in Variable Generation are common  Cheap KW more important than cheap KWHours
  59. 59.  We don't see any big advances in grid level storage  Pumped hydro and underground CAES are the only workable solutions  Both are expensive and take years to build  Hard to see how NREL 80% can happen in their timeframe Getting 400% to 650% increase in storage is necessary but not sufficient in their vision Need to build multiple plants at the same time
  60. 60.  At least one technology improves grid storage economics substantially  Supercapacitor, zinc air, CAES, or something else  NREL 80% target much easier to make  Still need to redo the electrical grid  Reduces US CO2 emissions about 29%
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