Volume 11, Number 3 Summer 2012 The Real Estate Newsletter Of The Florida Keys! Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate Co. The Most Trusted Name in Florida Keys Real Estate Since 1955 Florida Keys Real Estate Market Comparison: *Source: Tri-Services Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Board Key Largo To Key West 1st Half 2012 vs. 2011 KEYS‐WIDE OVERVIEW Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West All Areas (Lower Matecumbe (7 Mile Bridge (Bay Point (Key West to Green (+) Sales during the ﬁrst half of 2012 increased +5% from the Red (‐) to Key Largo) to Long Key) to Big Pine) Shark Key) Keys‐Wide 1,131 recorded during that same period in 2011. Of note is Total Number of Sales 2% More 24% More 3% More 1% Less 5% More that the number of sales for the ﬁrst half of 2012 exceeded as of 6/30/12: 376 246 214 350 1,186 those of the January‐June period going back to 2006 when it Avg. Sales Price 5% Less 8% More 14% Less 1% More 2% Less was 830. as of 6/30/12: $392K $403K $310K $504K $412K $ Value of Sales The $412K Average Sale Price (ASP) at the end of June was 4% Less 34% More 11% Less No Change 2% More as of 6/30/12: $147MM $99MM $66MM $176MM $489MM ‐2% less than the $420K for that period last year. The ASP (in millions $) for the January‐June period, however, is up +2% from the Sale Price to Original List Price 5% More 9% More 2% More 9% More 6% More ASP at the end of 2011. Commencing in 2007, the ASP has 76.92% 79.61% 83.70% 87.08% 81.83% as of 6/30/12: declined year‐to‐year with the largest drop of ‐23% for 2009 Sale Price to vs. 2010. Today’s $412K is a reduc on of ‐48% over the past Final List Price 2% More No Change 1% More 2% Less No Change 6 years, placing it in the 2002 and 2003 price range. This as of 6/30/12: 90.06% 90.95% 90.39% 93.89% 91.32% reduc on in average sales price is, we believe, more the Avg. Days to Sell 1% More 17% Less 1% More 24% Less 11% Less result of 75% of buyers purchasing proper es priced below as of 6/30/12: 285 253 241 254 258 $500K than it is a measure of a reduc on in the average Pending Transac ons 11% More 40% More 12% More 1% More 13% More market value of property. For the ﬁrst half of 2006, the as of 6/30/12: 438 295 244 369 1,346 Number of Proper es peak ASP year at $805K, 33% of the buyers purchased 8% Less 13% Less 7% Less 10% Less 9% Less For Sale proper es priced below $500K. 1,028 597 587 818 3,030 as of 6/30/12: The Dollar Value of Sales rose +2% to $489MM compared Avg. List Price Proper es For Sale No Change 6% More 3% More 7% More 3% More to $478MM for the ﬁrst half of 2011 as a result of the +5% $769K $732K $558K $812K $733K as of 6/30/12: increase in total sales. This compensated for the ‐2% Months of Inventory 9% Less 30% Less 10% Less 9% Less 14% Less reduc on in ASP. as of 6/30/12: 16 15 16 14 15 Average Days to Sell dropped ‐11% to 258 days from the 290 of the 2011 January ‐ June period. The Sale Price‐to‐Original List Price (OLP/SP) increased +6% to 81.83% from 77.10% a year earlier. The OLP/SP compares the sale price of the property to its list price at the me it ﬁrst came on the market versus the list price at the me the contract was wri en. It provides a measure of the mismatch between ini al list price of many sellers and the market price acceptable to buyers. This ra o will con nue to increase as the market con nues to improve. The best this ra o has been was 89.73% in 1999. The Sale Price‐to‐Final List Price (FLP/SP) of 91.32% did not change from 2011’s. The FLP/SP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the me the contract was wri en instead of at the me the property was ﬁrst listed. It reﬂects the average percentage of the ﬁnal listed price that buyers are paying for proper es that have sold. This ra o will also con nue to improve as the market does. The best this ra o has been was 94.85% in 2004. The margin between the OLP/SP (81.83%) and FLP/SP (91.32%) is almost 10%, which indicates, on average, a seller can an cipate up to a 10% reduc on from their Original List Price to the Final List Price prior to receiving a buyer’s oﬀer. It had reached +25% at the end of 2009. From 2004 to 2006, that margin averaged 9.3%. Addi onally, sellers and buyers today can expect the contract price, on average, to be ‐10% from the Final List Price. From 2004‐2006, that average was ‐8.1%. Pending Transac ons provide a forecast for closed sales over the next two months. Pendings are proper es under contract and in the process of comple ng the contract con ngencies such as inspec ons and ﬁnancing prior to closing. Keys‐wide Pending Transac ons increased +13% compared to the 2011’s ﬁrst half, going from 1,187 to 1,346 during 2012. That is the highest level since 1,464 during the ﬁrst half of 2004. The low was 724 for the ﬁrst half of 2008. The 3,030 Proper es For Sale on June 30, 2012 was a drop of ‐9% from 3,345 one year earlier, and is a ‐40% reduc on from the peak of 5,084 in March of 2007. This is the single most important measure of the con nued improving market and we expect it will drop below 3,000 during Q3 of 2012. The 15 Months of Inventory (MOI) from 18 at the end of June last year represents a ‐14% decline, con nuing down from 55 months at the end of March 2008. 2012’s reduc on in MOI is the result of the con nuing decline in inventory of proper es for sale with an increase in number of sales. MOI provides a measure of the rate of sales versus the supply of proper es, otherwise known some mes as the “absorp on rate.” (con nued on page 4) Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com
Highlights and Market Trends 1st Half 2012 vs. 2011 • Average Sale Price: Down –2% to $422,924 • Sales: UP +5% • Dollar Volume of Sales: UP +2% • Pending Sales: UP +13% • Sale Price to Original List Price Margin: From 38% in December 2009 to 19% Today • The Margin of Sales Price to Final List Price has compressed from 13% in December 2009 to 8% Today • Lis ngs: Down –40% from 5,084 in March 2007 to 3,030 today which is –10% from ﬁrst of the year. • Distressed Property Sales (Bank Owned & Short Sales) − Down from a peak of 45% of the number of sales in Q3 2010 to 23% of the number of sales − Lis ngs down from 26% of all lis ngs mid‐year 2009 to 12% of all lis ngs as of June 30, 2012 • Ac vity by Property Type: WF = Waterfront; NWF = Non‐Waterfront for Stock Island North (We will not diﬀeren ate between WF and NWF in Key West as the numbers of sales of WF are too few.) − Single Family: Keys‐wide sales are down –2% with 68% of the homes sold being waterfront from Stock Island to Key Largo (outside Key West) Average Sales Price is WF $667K; NWF $226K. In Key West it is $636K. − Condominium: Keys‐wide sales did not change with 58% of the condominiums sold being waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $346K; NWF $190K. In Key West it is $336K. − Townhomes: Keys‐wide sales are up +16% with 51% of the townhomes sold being waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $376K; NWF $185K. In Key West it is $379K. − Duplex and Half‐Duplex: Keys‐wide sales are down –10% with 66% of the duplex and half duplexes sold being waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $417K; NWF $170K. In Key West it is $459K. − Land: Keys‐wide sales rose +45% with 47% of the land sold being waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $198K; NWF $41K. In Key West it is $135K. • Sale Price for ALL Property Types: − Less than $500K: Sales up +6% = 897 or 75% of all sales − $500K ‐$999K: Sales up +7% = 225 or 19% of all sales − $1MM—$1.9MM: Sales No Change = 56 or 5% of all sales − $2MM+: Sales down –30% = 14 or 1% of all sales Conclusions/Projec ons: • Inventory con nues its decline to levels that will sustain property price apprecia on in the near future. • The increase in number of sales occurred below $1 Million with the same or fewer sales above that mark. 94% of all sales are below $1 Million and 75% are below $500,000 reﬂec ve of the economy, interest rates, and insurance constraints. The $500,000‐and‐below market is very compe ve with mul ple oﬀers being very common with much fewer choices for buyers. • Distressed proper es con nue their decline as a signiﬁcant factor in the market, however, their inﬂuence on price con nues to be reﬂected in ﬂat average sales prices. • The Sales Price to List Price margins are compressing, which reﬂects growing pressure on future price increases. • Land sales and specula on become even more of a market factor than they were in the ﬁrst half of 2012 when in the Lower Keys, in par cular, the +114% increase in land sales signiﬁcantly contributed to the –14% decline in average sale price. Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com
® THE PREVIEWS DIFFERENCEColdwell Banker Previews Interna onal® has been the na onal leader in luxury real estate sales for 80 years. On average, Previews handles over $70 million in luxury home sales every day. Luxury‐cer ﬁed, Coldwell Bank‐er Previews Property Specialists par cipated in more than 13,500 transac on sides of homes priced at $1,000,000 or more in 2011. Coldwell Banker Schmitt’s Percentage Coldwell Banker Schmi con nues to be the Florida Keys’ leader in of Previews Sales Keys-Wide luxury property lis ngs and sales with 54 percent more ac ve luxury lis ngs and, since 2008, 76 percent more luxury sales than the number‐two company. Addi onally, Coldwell Banker Schmi Previews agents have sold 48 percent more of their luxury lis ngs during that me period than has the number‐two company. Each Coldwell Banker Schmi Previews agent has the extensive experience and produc on requirements for cer ﬁca on as a Coldwell Banker Previews Property Specialist. Previews luxury proper es are residen al proper es priced within the top 10 percent of the list price range. For the Florida Keys market that threshold begins at $1,300,000, and those homes reﬂect the highest quality found in true luxury homes. As such, the property must stand out for excep onal quality and style of construc on, condi on and décor that matches the pres gious image of the Previews Interna onal program. Enlist a Coldwell Banker Schmi Previews Specialist to discover Florida Keys Previews Properties ($1.3M+)how our exper se, heritage and July-June 2011 to 2012 Vs. July-June 2010 to 2011market‐leading posi on can Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West All Areas Green (+) (Lower Matecumbe (7 Mile Bridge (Bay Point (Key West to make a diﬀerence in your next Red (‐) to Key Largo) to Long Key) to Big Pine) Shark Key) Keys‐Wide sale or acquisi on of a luxury Total Number of Sales 11% More 11% More 29% Less 22% Less 7% Less property. as of 6/30/12: 21 10 5 18 54 Avg. Sales Price 3% Less 36% More 20% Less 7% More 5% More as of 6/30/12: $1,843,547 $2,406,700 $1,808,000 $1,986,194 $1,992,092 The chart on the right compares $ Value of Sales the sale of proper es for $1.3M+ as of 6/30/12: 7% More 51% More 43% Less 16% Less 3% Less $38.7MM $24.0MM $9.0MM $35.7MM $107.5MM during the July‐June 2011/2012 (in millions $) to that same one year period in Sale Price to 14% More 3% More 7% Less 5% More 3% More Original List Price 2010/2011 which provides a as of 6/30/12: 80.47% 75.36% 68.26% 88.75% 78.21% perspec ve of the Keys Previews Sale Price to Final List Price 2% More 1% More 6% More 4% Less 1% More market . Updates will follow in 88.72% 89.17% 85.74% 86.95% 87.65% as of 6/30/12: succeeding newsle ers. Avg. Days to Sell 38% Less 16% Less 1% Less 45% Less 26% Less as of 6/30/12: 261 310 421 288 320 Pending Transac ons 50% Less 11% More 29% Less 22% Less 29% Less as of 6/30/12: 13 10 5 18 46 COLDWELL BANKER SCHMITT REAL ESTATE CO.
(con nued from page 1) More Florida Keys HistoryThe Average Listed Price (ALP) of $733K during the ﬁrst half is up +3% from last year. The ALP peak was $990K at the end of 2007, having decreased ‐26% since then. MARKET AREA DETAILS Number of Sales: With the excep on of Key West, oﬀ ‐1% with 350 sales versus 354 last year, all other Keys Markets experienced increased sales. The Middle Keys led being up +24% to 246 from 199 in 2011. The Lower Keys & Upper Keys were up +3% to 214 and +2% with 376, respec vely, compared to 208 and 370 in the ﬁrst half of 2011. Average Sale Price: The Middle Keys rose +8% to $403K compared to $372K in 2011. Key West increased +1% going from $497K to $504K. The Lower Keys ASP decreased ‐14% to $310K versus $359K last year and the Upper Keys ASP declined ‐5% to $392K from $414K in 2011. Dollar Value of Sales: The Middle Keys increased +34% to $99MM versus the $74MM in 2011 as a result of the large increase in number of sales and a higher ASP. Key West remained the same with $176MM. The Lower Keys was down ‐11% to $66MM from $74MM in Roy M. Cohn wintering in Duck Key 2011 due to the ‐14% decline in ASP. The Upper Keys was oﬀ ‐4% to $147MM from $153MM in 2011 caused by the ‐5% drop in ASP. in 1960. Cohn was responsible for Julius & Ethel Rosenberg’s espionage Pending Sales: Middle Keys Pending Sales increased signiﬁcantly, +40% to 295 vs. 211 during the ﬁrst half of 2011. Lower Keys Pendings convic ons in 1951. Joe McCarthy improved +12% to 244 from 217 last year. 438 Pending Sales in the Upper Keys was +11% higher than 395 in 2011. Key West Pending chose him over Robert Kennedy as his chief counsel. Sales were up just +1% to 369 from 364. Average Days to Sell: Key West declined ‐24% to 254 versus 333. The Middle Keys also was down ‐17% to 305 compared to 253 during the ﬁrst half of 2011. Both the Upper and Lower Keys markets rose slightly by +1% to 285 days and 241 days, respec vely. We con nue to believe that all sale periods are ar ﬁcially low as they do not accurately account for the property being previously listed with one or more brokers prior to being sold. Addi onally Short Sales have impacted the Days to Sell as some have taken two years to ﬁnally sell. Number of Proper es For Sale: All market areas had a reduc on in proper es listed for sale. The Middle Keys had the largest decline, ‐13% to 597 from 687 last year and 830 in 2010. Key West was next, ‐10% with 818 compared to 909 for the ﬁrst half of 2011 and 1,021 in 2010. The Upper Keys with 1,028 lis ngs vs. 1,117 a year ago was down ‐8%, a er totaling 1,338 at the end of June 2010. Lower Keys proper es for sale fell by ‐7% to 587 from 632 in 2011. There were 580 proper es for sale in the Lower Keys at the end of the ﬁrst half of 2010. Months of Inventory (MOI): MOI declined in all areas with the Middle Keys oﬀ ‐30% to 15 MOI from 21 last year, and the Lower Keys ‐10% to 16 vs. 18 last year. The Upper Keys registered ‐9% to 16 compared to the 18 it had one year ago. Key West was the lowest at ‐9% to 14 MOI compared to 15 for the same period in 2011. Average List Price (ALP): Key West with $812K increased +7% from $757K last year and $872K in 2010. The Middle Keys rose +6% to $732K from $691K in both 2011 and 2010. The Lower Keys was up +3% to $558K from $541K in 2011. $593K was its ALP in 2010. Upper Keys List Price did not change at $769K. It was $831K in 2010. What do these Numbers Forecast? The three most important market indicators are lis ngs, sales and pendings. Lis ngs con nue to decline, while Sales and Pendings have been steadily increasing, indica ng the Keys real estate market con nues on its posi ve upward path. As the inventory con nues to decrease and sales increase, buyers will have less choice and sellers will regain control of pricing leading to increasing prices. We are regularly experiencing mul ple oﬀers on well‐priced proper es because buyers have begun to feel urgency as they recognize the market forces described above. 11050 Overseas Hwy. — Main Oﬃce Marathon, FL 33050 Toll Free: 800‐366‐5181 Oﬃce: 305‐743‐5181 Fax: 305‐743‐7012 CURRENT RESIDENT OR: If you would like a FREE Compara ve Market Analysis, contact one of our ﬁve oﬃces at the toll free numbers below. We are “The Most Trusted Name In Florida Keys Real Estate.” Key Largo (877) 289‐0035 Islamorada (800) 207‐4160 Marathon (800) 366‐5181 Big Pine (800) 488‐3050 Key West (800) 598‐7727 Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com