Fast Future (02/2012)
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Fast Future (02/2012)

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The Fast Future isn't just coming - it's here....

The Fast Future isn't just coming - it's here.
The next twenty years will bring a global transformation of astounding scale ... with big winners and big losers. AEC industry firms with a ‘business as usual’ approach face a rocky ride - and untimely death.
Please join this engaging, energizing, and eye-opening discussion of the fifteen uber-trends impacting our industry and world – and what AEC firm leaders must do to survive and thrive in an exploding, accelerating, Fast Future!

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Fast Future (02/2012) Fast Future (02/2012) Presentation Transcript

  • FAST FUTURE!Fifteen Uber-Trends that Will Rock the World And What AEC Firms Must Do to Survive and Thrive on the Road Ahead Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 1
  •  Strategy  Leadership  Marketing  Operations  TransitionConsulting □ Training □ Speaking □ Research Helping professional services firms and their leaders to achieve extraordinary outcomes in business and life. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 2
  • 1. Economy and Industry 2. Fifteen Future Fast Trends 3. Organization Response 4. Personal Action PlanningCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 3
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 4
  • Source: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 5
  • Monthly unemployment rate, domestic U.S.1210 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 6
  • Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics- http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/mstrtcr1.gif Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 7
  • 2011 Forecast – USA Today & IHS Global Insight4 Eleven Leading Indicators3 + Real federal funds rate + Interest rate yield curve + Corporate bond spread2 + Hours worked + Building permits + Non-defense capital goods orders1 + Money supply + Stock prices + ISM export orders index + Crude oil prices0 + Light vehicle salesSource: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/Economic-Outlook/35290148/1 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 8
  • USA 29.2 Florida 79.5 Texas 59.8 USA FL North Carolina 51.9 TX California 37.1 NC CA % Change South Carolina 28.3 SC New Jersey 16.5 NJ MA MA 10.4 MI MI 7.6 NY NY 2.6 ND -5.5 ND-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Source: U.S. Census Bureau at www.census.gov Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 9
  • Population Distribution (k)4000035000 CA, TX, NY, FL30000 Average State Size All States and DC 6.14 M25000 Sub Top 4 (100 M, 33%) 4.50 M Sub Top 10 (166 M, 54%) 3.52 M20000 IL, PA, OH, MI, GA, NC1500010000 5000 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 10
  • Source: http://www.america2050.org/megaregions.htmlCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 11
  • 65605550 Baseline45 ABI40 Source: www.aia.org35 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 12
  • “We saw nearly identical conditions in November and December of 2010 only to see momentum sputter and billings fall into negativeterritory as we moved through 2011, so it’s too early to be sure thatwe are in a full recovery mode. Nevertheless, this is very good news for the design and construction industry and it’s entirely possibleconditions will slowly continue to improve as the year progresses.” AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.Source: http://www.aia.org/press/AIAB092722 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 13
  • 2012 McGraw HIS Global Moody’s FMI Reed Associated Consensus Hill Insight Economic Construction Builders & .com Data ContractorsNon Residential 2.1 -2.5 0.2 3.9 2.0 5.3 3.8TotalCommercial Total 5.6 5.6 3.9 8.8 2.4 5.9 6.9 Office 4.3 3.0 -3.1 9.1 2.2 7.8 6.8 Retail/Other 5.0 4.1 4.7 6.8 2.5 4.7 7.2 Hotel 10.2 23.3 7.1 18.1 2.4 4.4 6.0Industrial Total 6.0 1.1 8.8 10.3 -2.3 12.3 5.7Institutional -0.1 -7.9 -0.8 2.3 2.3 3.3 0.0Total Health 4.5 2.4 4.6 5.1 2.5 4.7 8.0 Education -1.7 -10.7 -3.1 3.2 1.4 3.1 -4.0 Religious 5.1 -1.3 25.3 - -2.0 -0.2 4.0 Public Safety -3.8 -15.9 - -0.3 3.4 -2.2 -4.0 Amusement/Rec. 0.2 -16.3 1.3 - 7.9 5.4 2.8 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • 2013 McGraw HIS Global Moody’s FMI Reed Associated Consensus Hill Insight Economic Construction Builders & .com Data ContractorsNon Residential 6.4 8.7 4.2 6.5 4.5 8.1 6.1TotalCommercial 11.4 17.9 17.7 12.1 5.4 9.0 6.2Total Office 9.6 12.8 11.7 11.8 5.1 10.3 6.0 Retail/Other 9.9 22.1 9.6 8.6 5.3 7.7 6.0 Hotel 19.7 16.8 47.3 29.2 7.1 9.9 8.0Industrial Total 10.2 8.7 10.9 16.1 4.1 13.3 8.2Institutional 3.6 2.8 0.6 4.8 3.6 6.3 3.5Total Health 5.3 3.2 1.0 6.7 4.1 8.9 8.0 Education 3.1 1.5 0.8 5.5 3.3 5.4 2.0 Religious 6.3 2.4 13.9 - 4.1 72 4.0 Public Safety 0.3 -4.1 - 3.1 3.3 2.0 -3.0 Amusement/Rec 6.5 13.6 4.5 - 4.7 6.9 3.0 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • February 3, 2012CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH IN JANUARY BUT INDUSTRYS 17.7 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS DOUBLE OVERALL RATE "Although its great news that the industry has added 52,000 jobs in the past two months, the unemployment rate in construction is still double that of the overall economy, and constructionemployment remains at 1996 levels," said. "It will take another month or two to see if the recent job growth reflects a sustained pickup or merely acceleration of homebuilding and highway projects that normally halt when the ground freezes in December and January." Ken Simonson, AGC Chief Economist "Without adequate long-term funding for infrastructure, competitive tax rates and fewer costly regulatory hurdles, the construction industry may lose many of the jobs it has gained in the past year.” Stephen E. Sandherr, AGC Chief Executive Officer Source: http://www.agc.org/cs/news_media/press_room/press_release?pressrelease.id=1020 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 16
  •  Economic uncertainty  Tight credit and lending  Overbuilt markets  Weak municipal bond market  Federal budget deficit  Energy (oil) pricesCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 17
  • Enterprise Vision/ Leadership Leadership Business Mission Alignment Development Strategy Strategic Business Operational Ownership Marketing Development Excellence TransitionFramework Leverage Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 18
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 19
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 20
  • Urbanization Technology Life and Living Globalization Diversity Infrastructure Knowledge and Know How Volatility and Change Fluid Supply Chain Small Firm Meritocracy Community Consumer Power Energy and Environment Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 21
  • InformationChange Technology Globalization Meritocracy Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • Rapid technological development and innovation will change everything.And the pace of the change is accelerating. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 23
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 24
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • Computers. Information. Nanotech. Biotech. Communication. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 26
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 27
  • Wealth Knowledge Society Power Family CommunicationThe geometric explosion of information will fundamentallytransform all human endeavor. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 28
  • The world will experience increasing global connectivity –on virtually every dimension possible. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 29
  • What one does will supplant who one is –in a more democratic, merit-based world ofbroadening economic opportunity. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 30
  • The era of stability and predictability is over. Near constant volatility, uncertainty, and change in the global economy will become the norm.Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 31
  • Energy &Consumer Supply Chain Small Firm Infrastructure Environment Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 32
  • The age of the consumer is here - buyers (notsellers) will control the market. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 33
  • The global supply chain will include a continuously churning, mutating, andevolving mix of providers, suppliers, partners, and competitors. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 34
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • Millions of (very) small firms will competesuccessfully on the global stage. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 36
  • NAICS Type No. of Firms Total Receipts54131 Architectural Services 24,283 $37,149,90954132 Landscape Architectural Services 6,088 $4,365,33654133 Engineering Services 47,714 $187,531,86654134 Drafting Services 3,146 $1,083,58154135 Building Inspection Services 5,673 $1,830,05954136 Geophysical Surveying/Mapping 729 $3,093,34854137 Surveying and Mapping (Ex Geo) 9,567 $6,760,25154141 Interior Design Services 13,492 $9,799,48054162 Environmental Consulting Services 8,274 $10,423,169 Total 118,966 $262,036,999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Database, 2007 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 37
  • 2.1 1.6 6.7 Employees 11.5 0-4 5-9 10-19 18.6 59.4 20-49 50-99 100+Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Database, 2007 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 38
  • 1800 firms $13-100M Largest Smallest Firms Firms 10,000 firms with 20-100 staff100 firms over $100M 100,000 firms with staff <20 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • Those who build today will lead the world tomorrow. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 40
  • Alternative energy will gain inimportance - but petroleum will be king. Environmental health will become intrinsically important worldwide – though always balanced by economics. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 41
  • Diversity HealthyUrbanization Living Community Knowledge Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 42
  • The majority will be defined by consensus, alignment, and collaboration – and nothing else. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 43
  • Peoples around the world will live healthier (longer and better)lives. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 44
  • Expertise will become boththe language and currencyof the global realm. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 45
  • Living in cities and city-states will become increasingly attractive - to nearly everyone. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 46
  • 12th largest city in China, 48th largest in the world;Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 47
  • # China USA India 0 5 10 15 20 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 48
  • Source: http://www.america2050.org/megaregions.htmlCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 49
  • Engaging in new communities will becomeincreasingly important and meaningful. Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 50
  • “The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 51
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 52
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 53
  • “Change is not necessary… Survival is not mandatory.” W. Edwards DemingCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 54
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 55
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 56
  • EnterpriseOverarching Leadership Leadership Business Objective Alignment Development Strategy Strategic Business Operational Ownership Marketing Development Excellence TransitionFramework Leverage Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 57
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 58
  • The Road Not Taken TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Because it was grassy and wanted wear; Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same, And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sighCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 59 Somewhere ages and ages hence:
  • Pundits Extraordinary Professionals!Knowledge Zombies Laborers Effort Modified after Jim Cathcart Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 60
  • “Execution is the single biggest issue facing business today.” Larry Bossidy and Ram Charan Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 61
  • No. Action Outcome Lead Due Date Notes12345 Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 62
  • 1. Pay Attention 2. Ask Questions 3. Advise Others 4. Take Action Copyright Kleinfelder, 2011. Used with permission.Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved.
  • “Make no small plans;they have no magic to stir men’s blood.” Daniel Burnham Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 64
  • “Whether you think you can, orthink you can’t …you’re right.” Henry Ford Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 65
  • Copyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 66
  • Helping firms and their leaders to achieve extraordinary outcomes in business and life. john@jdoehring.comCopyright 2012. J. Doehring & Co., LLC. All rights reserved. 67