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    Korea Korea Presentation Transcript

    • Missile Defense and South Korea: A proposed plan for the United States’ involvement
      Should the U.S. set up a missile defense system in South Korea?
      By Holly D’Anna
    • Overview of the Issue
      North Korea biggest threat to South Korea for over half a century
      North Korea has nuclear capabilities, but doesn’t necessarily pose immediate threat to the South
      Recent events suggest US-led missile defense system in South Korea would not be ideal
      To understand this policy decision, we need to look at the Korean conflict over the 57 years
    • The Korean War: Brief Overview
      After Japan's defeat in World War II, Korea became a divided nation, the capitalist South supported by the United States and its Western allies and the communist North an ally of the Soviet Union.
      Cold War tensions erupted into war 1950
      1953: The fighting ended with a truce, not a treaty, and settled little.
      Both sides are still technically at war with each other
      A two-mile wide demilitarized zone continues to separate North and South Korea.
      The U.S. has approx. 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea
    • Recent History of North-South Relations
      Several land and sea border conflicts since armistice
      Each state wants to reunify the peninsula according to its own terms and system of government.
      Deadly naval clashes occurred along the demarcation line in 1999, 2002 and 2009.
      “Sunshine policy” by South Korean president in late 1990s advocated greater communication between the two governments
      2000: Kim Jong Il and Kim Dae-Jung held summit in Pyongyang, the first since the armistice in 1953
      Agreed to reduce tensions and work towards reunification
      2002: North Korea restarts nuclear development and withdraws from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
    • The North Korean Threat
      July 2006: North Korea test-fired a number of short-range missiles and one Taepodong-2 long-range missile into the Sea of Japan (East Sea)
      North Korea threatened to carry out an "annihilating" nuclear strike if its atomic facilities were pre-emptively hit by the United States.
      May 2009: North Korea abandons armistice because the South chose to participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative
      Goal: to stop transport of nuclear weapons via ships
      DPRK: mechanism for war of aggression against them
      Despite attempts at international negotiations, North Korea continues to produce nuclear weapons
    • U.S.-South Korean Relations
      1954: Creation of U.S.-R.O.K. Mutual Defense Treaty, in which the United States agreed to help the Republic of Korea defend itself against external aggression.
      U.S. going from leading to supporting role in South Korea
      Since 1970s and 1980s, the consensus that defined the MDT has eroded, although relations are still strong
      South Korea wants “self-reliant defense” as a long-term goal
    • U.S.-led Missile Defense System: Pros
      • Missile defense can further strengthen the goal of nonproliferation
      • Allies: ability to protect themselves against a nuclear threat without developing their own nuclear capabilities
      • Alternative option to immediate use of offensive weapons in times of conflict
      • Since it protects against attacks, could discourage attacks from occurring
      Pros of U.S.-led missile defense systems are non-specific to the Korean conflict
    • U.S.-led Missile Defense System: Cons
      Even if a missile defense system is successful, it would fuel an arms race between the North and the South
      North would always try to overcome the defense system with nuclear advancements
      Both China and Russia oppose U.S.-led missile defense system in Northeast Asia
      Wouldn’t protect South Korea from short-range missiles coming from North Korea
      Currently, their biggest concern is the North’s development of long-range missiles; this should also be our main concern as well
      Strong U.S. alliances in South Korea and U.S. missile defense in response to the North Korean threat could complicate our relations with Northeast Asia, particularly with China because they do not support our plan for missile defense in the region
    • Evolving Situation
      Two weeks ago, North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong, said South provoked attack because shells from a military drill landed in North’s waters (first direct attack since armistice)
      Last Sunday, U.S. and South Korea started joint military exercises; North Korea is furious and has threatened unpredictable consequences if their waters are invaded
      KCNA: “The U.S. and the South Korean warmongers are escalating confrontation and tension through ceaseless moves to ignite a war, seriously disturbing peace and security on the Korean Peninsula”
    • Evolving Situation
      Last night: Obama phone call to Chinese president HuJintao
      North Korea needs to stop its provocative behavior
      China: "calm and rational response from all sides to prevent the deterioration of the fragile security situation” – from their state run news agency
      Today, according to CNN, the South’s navy began live-fire drills in seas surrounding Korean peninsula (off all three coasts)
    • Involvement Options
      The United States could set up a missile defense system in South Korea
      • Could exacerbate the tense situation between the North and the South, as well as affect U.S. relations between other major powers in the area
      The United States could refrain from setting up a missile defense system in South Korea
      • This option could be for an indefinite amount of time or the near future while we wait for the current situation and the tension to dissipate
    • Recommended Plan (Option 2)
      For now, hold off on missile defense system, especially since tensions on the Korean peninsula are particularly high
      Even if tensions do not continue to escalate in the near future, the U.S. should consider its relations with China and Russia, among other countries, before considering the plan
      If missile defense system is seen as reactionary to North Korea’s nuclear development or their recent actions, they might go on the defensive and could launch an attack