Instability in Thailand
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Instability in Thailand






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  • These “Red Shirts” are a mix of city and rural people, the majority being farmers and others of the middle and lower classes from rural areas. They demand the Thai Parliament dissolve along with the resignation of Prime Minister AbhisitVejjajiva.
  • Thai kingdom in mid 14th century.KhanaRatsadon (People’s Party) group of military and civilian officials resulted in a transition of power from King Prajadhipok
  • 2010 from March to May. protests organized by National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) (known as "Red-Shirts")
  • 500-15,000 estimated. Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO), Pattani Islamic Mujahideen movement (GMIP),, National Revolution Front (BRN), Pattani Liberation National Front (BNPP), JemaahIslamiyah (JI)September 2006, Army Commander SonthiBoonvaratkalin received an increase in executive powers to counter the unrest. Together, Boonvaratkalin and a junta ousted Thaksin. Drive bys, arsen of schools, bombings on 60th anniversary Bhumibol,

Instability in Thailand Instability in Thailand Presentation Transcript

  • Instability in Thailand
    Ashley Crow
  • Brief History 1932-1992
    Bloodless revolution led to constitutional monarchy in 1932
    1946 King BhumibolAdulyadejto present
    Several regimes, including military
    1991 coup, Thailand again under
    military dictatorship
    Elections. Majority party invited
    coup leader to be Prime Minister.
    Public protests
    1992 Bhumibol feared civil war
    Televised peaceful intervention
  • Brief History 1992-2006
    1997 Constitution drafted by elected Constitutional Drafting Assembly
    2006 Thaksin government overthrown by a coup
    US cut $24 million in military aid, humanitarian aid continued
    Kofi Annan condemned gaining power through the barrel of the gun
    Economistaccused coup of preventing Thai Rak Thai party from winning democratic elections
    Destroyed a decade of democratic progress
    Also criticized lack of international involvement
  • 2010
    Political protests began in March against current Prime Minister AbhisitVeijajiva of the Democrat Party
    Led by National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (known as Red-Shirts)
    Demands include dissolving parliament and holding elections
    Ban Ki-moon suggests problem is internal, should be solved internally
  • Southern Insurgency
    2001 insurgency groups
    Southern Malay states of Pattani,
    Narawathiwat, Yala
    Islamic influence rather than Buddhist Thai
    Siam annexed Malay region in 1902
    1930s ultranationalist dictator Songkhran for “norms of central Thai culture…with no deviation tolerated”
    Local traditional separatist groups and greater mujahidin groups such as JemaahIslamiyah
    2003 RiduanIsamuddin, AQ leading operative in SE Asia
    Poverty is falling, but clear economic gap
  • US Objectives
    Stabilize the state and region
    Thailand to remain as an ally for economic and strategic purposes
    “Hush” any takfiri movements that may bloom a regional or global offensive Islamist movement from an originally defensive insurgency
    Prevent human rights violations
  • Previous US Foreign Policy
    “…US and Australia provided extensive police assistance against money laundering, counterfeiting, people smuggling, narcotics, sea-lane security, WMD proliferation, and illegal crossborder movement” -Kilcullen
    US assistance under the Department of Justice Office of Oversease Prosecutorial Development and Training
    Military trainers deployed under Joint US Military Advisory Group Thailand
    BUT NO overt deployment of US personnel in South
  • Policy Options
    1) No US involvement. No pressure to any IGO/NGO
    2) Limited US involvement. Pressure UN for humanitarian watches and aid
    3) Direct US military involvement
  • Policy Recommendation
    Option #2
    Realist perspective
    Limited US involvement
    Pressure for UN humanitarian watches and aid
    Emphasizes soft power and importance of democracy
    Multilateralism in issues involving insurgencies
    Provide intelligence for Southern insurgency
    Whether global terrorist cells are present
  • Consequences of Policy
    UN support humanitarian assistance to low income areas, help build infrastructure
    No physical intervention will prevent takfiri movement from Islamists such as JI or AQ
    US will not intervene unilaterally
    Does not have capability to do so, and cannot afford international criticism as before
    Mahkota of Pattani United Liberation Organization
    “There is no interest in taking operations to Bangkok or Phuket. We do not need to be on anyone’s terrorist list. Once we are on that list, it is all over.”