Ppt booth iob seminar 27 apr 12


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Ppt booth iob seminar 27 apr 12

  1. 1. 02/05/2012 In search of a politics of economic transformation in Africa David Booth Presentation to IOB seminar “Rethinking State, Economy and Society: Political settlements and transformation potential of African states”, Antwerp, 27 Apr 2012 www.institutions-africa.org 2Overview The problem: economic transformation and African governance What we know ... about the macro-political preconditions What we know ... about the micro-political preconditions If true, what does this mean for policy priorities and action? www.institutions-africa.org 1
  2. 2. 02/05/2012 3The problem, 1: Africa versus Southeast Asia Southeast Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa: GDP per capita (constant 2000 USD), 1960‐2009 1800 1600 1400 Southeast Asia 1200 Sub‐Saharan Africa 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Jan Kees van Donge, David Henley and Peter Lewis, ‘Tracking Development in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: The Primacy of Policy’, Development Policy Review 30(s1), Feb 2012 www.institutions-africa.org 4More on Tracking Development (Leiden) Paired comparisons:  Nigeria/Indonesia  Kenya/Malaysia  Tanzania/Vietnam  Uganda/Cambodia Primacy of policy:  Sound macroeconomic management  Economic freedom for peasants and small entrepreneurs  Pro-poor, p p pro-rural public spending p p g Implementation approach:  Outreach: get benefits to a large number of people  Urgency: do it quickly, with the resources immediately to hand  Expediency: laws, rights and ideological precepts take second place www.institutions-africa.org 2
  3. 3. 02/05/2012 5The problem, 2: Economic growth versustransformation Economic headlines of 2010: Africa on the move  McKinsey report “Lions on the Move”: accelerating growth during 2000s; not just a resource boom  Steven Radelet CGA book: steady economic growth and democratisation since mid-1990s in 17 “cheetah” countries Economic headlines of 2011: not just growth but … transformation Justin Lin K.Y. Amoako UNECA Economic Report 2011 www.institutions-africa.org 6More on economic transformation: Productivity breakthroughs in smallholder agriculture Structural change (diversification of production and exports) Acquisition of skills and technological capabilities by firms (of a certain size) Anticipation of comparative advantages And, therefore, an active state, to  tackle major infrastructure obstacles (transport, power, water)  free-up markets  improve health, education and skills  facilitate and force firms to grow and upgrade www.institutions-africa.org 3
  4. 4. 02/05/2012 7The problem, 3: What about the politics? A 30-year conventional wisdom about Africa has ruled out successful state interventionism:  Inevitability of political corruption and managerial inefficiency – “rent seeking”, “neopatrimonialism”  “First get good governance” – so that states are accountable to citizens  That means better public financial management, multi-party elections and … democratic decentralization Global hype around the Arab Spring – renewal of public belief in democratization as magic bullet The trouble is:  Asian experience does not support the Good Governance orthodoxy or popular faith in democracy as the solution to all problems …  … nor does African experience www.institutions-africa.org 8The trouble with ‘good governance’: Asia  In SE Asia, as in NE Asia, a transformational policy mix was delivered by very different types of regimes, and i d  few conformed to conventional good governance  those that were not ex-communist would be considered neopatrimonial  We need to work harder at identifying what it is about y g governance that matters, and what doesn’t matter, in getting very poor countries to the next level … www.institutions-africa.org 4
  5. 5. 02/05/2012 9 Mushtaq Khan on governance and growth www.institutions-africa.org 10 What do we know about “rent seeking” and transformation in Africa? In Africa as in Asia, the formula that seems to work for transformation combines  A mechanism enabling centralization of control of economic rents and their deployment with a view to the (relatively) long term  Political protection for competent, socially embedded, sector bureaucracies Recent theory tells us why this should be the case  Contrary to the g y good-governance orthodoxy, economic g y transformation requires the generation and investment of “rents” – e.g. to finance learning costs of pioneer firms  The allocation of rents is also the key to political settlements that maintain peace and a predictable economic environment www.institutions-africa.org 5
  6. 6. 02/05/2012 11 What else do we know about macro-political pre-conditions? Historically, this “developmental patrimonialism” has only happened under two types of particular conditions www.institutions-africa.org 12 Why democracy doesn’t help  In history, elections and liberal-democratic institutions have very different effects in different socio-economic settings  Until societies have substantial organizational U t soc et es a e substa t a o ga at o a capacity, so that promises to deliver public goods are realistic and credible  … it will always be cost effective to win elections with bold gestures plus distribution of private rewards (and punishments) to voters and clients  The short-termism that elections generate is more damaging when countries are divided into big th i blocs, and th C i t bi ethnic bl d the Constitution tit ti says “winner takes all”  These issues need to be understood as large- scale collective-action problems www.institutions-africa.org 6
  7. 7. 02/05/2012 13What have we learned about the micro-politicalpreconditions? APPP Local Governance research: what works to overcome key bottlenecks in local public goods’ provision? goods Water & sanitation; safe motherhood; public order/security; facilitation of markets & enterprise Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda Co-provision is the norm; much informal privatisation as well Focus on proximate institutional factors + wider enabling/inhibiting conditions Fieldwork + literature www.institutions-africa.org 14What have we learned about the micro-politicalpreconditions?  Critical importance of policy coherence vs. incoherence  Caused by politics + donors  What motivates better public goods provision – not global magic bullets  Especially not the magic p y g bullet of the “demand side” and social accountability  Enabling vs. blocking local problem-solving  Ostrom was right! www.institutions-africa.org 7
  8. 8. 02/05/2012 15Implications for action? Getting agriculture and rural infrastructure properly on the agenda Getting a greater sense of history about development, democracy and the realisation of human rights  No crude trade-offs, but good things don’t always go together  More steadiness, and less jumping on global bandwagons Making democracy safe for development!  Explore ways of taming competitive clientelism, electoral short-termism and “winner takes all”  Stop promoting magic bullets of “demand” and start unblocking local problem-solving, which i not th same bl l i hi h is t the Conceptually, revisit some of the master-concepts that have guided governance reform:  From “best practice” to “good fit”; but also  Less principal-agent thinking and more on collective-action problems and solutions www.institutions-africa.org Africa p power and politicsThe Africa Power and Politics Programme isa consortium research programme fundedby the UK Department for InternationalDevelopment (DFID) and Irish Aid for thebenefit of developing countries.www.institutions-africa.org 8