Re Insights Graphs Oct
 

Re Insights Graphs Oct

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Real Estate insights

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Re Insights Graphs Oct Re Insights Graphs Oct Document Transcript

  • Portland Area Metro Market Report, Second Quarter 2009 Today's Market… Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $350,000 25% $300,000 20% 15% $250,000 10% $200,000 5% $150,000 0% -5% $100,000 -10% $50,000 -15% $0 -20% 2000 Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Portland U.S. Local Trend Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2009 Q2) $246,200 $174,433 Prices are down compared to a year 1-year Appreciation (2009 Q2) -13.9% -16.2% earlier and continue to weaken 3-year Appreciation (2009 Q2) -13.2% 13 2% 4.3% 4 3% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$37,300 $7,233 Those who bought early in the boom still 7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain $67,700 -$39,633 hold some equity 9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain $75,700 $6,800 Conforming Loan Limit $418,750 $729,250 Most buyers in this market have access Ratio of Conforming to Local Median 59% not comparable to government backed finacing State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth 1,000s 120 40% 30% 100 20% 80 10% 0% 60 -10% 40 -20% -30% 20 -40% 0 -50% 2000 Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Home Sales and Construction Growth Oregon U.S. *State Existing Home Sales Sales in the second quarter remain -15.2% -2.9% (2009 Q2 vs 2008 Q2) ( ) gg p g sluggish compare to the national average
  • Drivers of Local Supply and Demand… Local Economic Outlook Portland U.S. Not 1-year Job Additions (Jul) -56,800 Over the last 12 months, local Comparable employment has fallen sharply and will Not 3-year Job Additions (Jul) -37,500 create a drag on demand Comparable 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -5.5% -2.6% Weak compared to other markets 3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate -3.7% -0.9% The rate of job loss is accelerating State Economic Activity Index Oregon U.S. 12-month change (2009 - Jul) -11.0% -3.3% The economy of Oregon has contracted more than the rest of the nation 36-month change (2009 - Jul) -10.2% -0.2% Local Fundamentals Portland U.S. 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through The current level of construction is 78.6% 2,953 not comparable Jul 2009 (1,000s) below the long-term average Excess supply reduction could result in Long-term average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit price escalation over the longer-term if, in 13,793 not comparable Building Permits (1,000s) the future, there is rapid and robust increase in demand ** Single-Family Housing Permits (Jul 2009) g y g ( ) Low construction will help to maintain a p -45.3% 45 3% -39.0% 39 0% 12-month sum vs. a year ago tight supply and to stablize prices Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Starts (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
  • Affordability Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Portland U.S. Ratio for 2008 19.6% 19.5% Improving and historically strong; should Ratio for 2009 Q2 15.4% 15.0% help demand for housing Historical Average 17.2% 23.2% Good relative to the nation Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2
  • Median Home Price to Income Portland U.S. Ratio for 2008 7.1 7.1 Local affordabiltiy has improved, but Ratio for 2009 Q2 6.2 6.1 could be better Historical Average 5.6 7.2 Good compared to national average Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond 3.00 7.0 6.5 2.50 6.0 2.00 5.5 5.0 1.50 4.5 4.0 1.00 3.5 0.50 3.0 2.5 0.00 2.0 2004 Q2 Q4 2005 Q2 Q4 2006 Q2 Q4 2007 Q2 Q4 2008 Q2 Q4 2009 Q2 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) With the demise of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008, risk in the financial markets surged as depicted by the blue bar above. Mortgage rates fell as prospects for growth withered. Recently, rates have flat-lined while the 10-year Treasurey bond rate is on the rise. This reduction of the spread between these two rates is a signal that the financial markets view the mortgage industry as less risky.
  • Looking Deeper…. State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association Monthly Market Data - June 2009 Portland U.S. 12.5 10.4 Market Share: % % 89.6% 87.5% The Portland market has a lower share of Prime (blue) vs. 89.6 87.5 subprime loans than average Subprime + Alt-A % % 10.4% 12.5% There has been a large local increase 1.1 1.1% 2.2% PRIME: 0.4 2.2% versus a year ago Foreclosure + REO % % 1.1% Rate Compared to the nationional average, 0.4% 1.1% Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-09 today's local rate is low There has been a large local increase 15.6% 18.4% SUBPRIME: 15.6 18.4 versus a year ago % 17.6 % Foreclosure + REO 8.8% % Rate Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low 8.8% 17.6% Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-09 relative to the nationional average A large local increase occurred compared 7.3% 14.0% ALT-A: 7.3% 14.0 to a year ago Foreclosure + REO % 2.5% 8.0% Rate Today's local rate is low compared to the 2.5% 8.0% Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-09 national average The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have completed the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area. Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data