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Tech trends 2013 Tech trends 2013 Document Transcript

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  • Introduction A range of influences will shape the technological landscape of 2013. Economic conditions will continue to constrain growth, the emergence of new markets will present unique opportunities and challenges, and our growing interconnectedness will further accentuate the successes and failures of2 industry stakeholders. From innovation to disruption, how is our relationship with technology evolving? And what does it mean for those seeking to navigate these changes? Here we present six trends for 2013 and beyond. Tech Trends
  • ContentsP.04 Intelligent design: HOW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ARE GETTING TO KNOW USP.06 Open-source: HOW NEW MODELS ARE CHALLENGING THE NATURE OF BUSINESSP.08 F  rom push to pull: WHY INFORMATION OVERLOAD IS CHANGING CONSUMER BehaviorP.10 The disruption of hardware: HOW THE CLOUD IS CHANGING THE BASIS OF COMPETITIONP.12 A brand of me: HOW THE ONLINE ENVIRONMENT IS 3 MAKING THINGS MORE PERSONALP.14 The data agenda: FROM PRIVACY CONCERNS TO OWNERSHIP QUESTIONS Copyright GfK
  • 01 Intelligent design: how products and services are getting to know us Much has been written on the subject Perhaps the most prominent examples of artificial intelligence. While the of this incorporation of behavioral data debate regarding the singularity have been in the fields of discovery and (the technological creation of recommendation and, unsurprisingly superintelligence) continues, there therefore, also advertising. is little doubt that the products and Where we once relied on explaining services we use every day are becoming our tastes to people in record stores more intelligent in their design. for personalized recommendations, we4 In particular, the incorporation of now have access to a plethora of digital behavioral data (essentially, our past services (Amazon, Genius, etc.) offering to actions) is increasingly used to create do the same. The ability of these services products and services that are tailored to instantly draw on your existing music around us at an individual level. collection and past behavior allows them »» The Nest thermostat uses sensors to tailor recommendations around your individual tastes. and algorithms to detect when you’re at home and to learn a personalized As data availability increases, the temperature schedule. algorithms underpinning these products »» Siri attempts to move beyond voice and services will become more complex. recognition, using other data stored Rich (and largely untapped) sources of on your phone to increase the range data include our environment (where we of tasks it can fulfill. are, what we’re doing) and our emotional »» EcoDrive collects data on emissions state (reading our personality as well as and fuel consumption to provide tips our actions). The addition of this more on reducing the environmental impact nuanced individual data promises more of your driving. sophisticated, personalized interactions. »» These innovations are trying to The business opportunities are serve our future needs better by potentially huge. Taking content understanding and learning from our recommendation as a case study, as the past actions. No data Behavioral data Contextual data Tech Trends
  • AIamount of media we can access increases(see trend 5, ‘A brand of me’), the needfor more effective recommendationwill be paramount. Additionally, asconsumption habits continue to fragmentwith the growth of streaming and on-demand services, providers will requiremore sophisticated ways to increase thediscoverability of their content. 5There are also implications for loyalty.If we assume that these products andservices will better understand us thelonger they spend getting to know us,then switching to a competitor could(at least initially) result in diminishedperformance, reducing the temptation tochurn. Additionally, in terms of consumerengagement, better integration with ourlives potentially allows brands to buildmore emotional bonds with users.While we’ll be watching the mostengaged, aspirational consumers for means a loss of serendipity, andthe earliest indications of these trends, potentially a narrowing of our horizons.there are also significant implications Furthermore, giving up control byfor less engaged segments. Intelligently allowing intelligently designed productsdesigned products and services will and services to make decisions on ourlessen our burden in setting up and behalf raises questions about the societallearning how to use them, removing a role we’re giving to them. Technology,key barrier to entry for late adopters after all, “recognizes no self-limitingand developing markets. principle” (Schumacher, 1973). Ultimately,However, there are also social as our technology gets to know us, it’ll beimplications to consider. Increasingly up to us to decide how much power wetailored (and therefore, filtered) content hand down to it. Copyright GfK
  • 02 OPEN-SOURCE: HOW NEW MODELS ARE CHALLENGING THE NATURE OF BUSINESS Hobbyists have always played an the scope for growth in 3D printing is important role in the development huge. At a similar stage in its infancy of technology. From the Homebrew Napster embedded an ideal of freely Computer Club (an informal group of exchanging content that became hard technology enthusiasts in the seventies to push back as the technology moved and eighties, many of whom went on into the mainstream. Instead, business to play important roles for Apple and models fought, lost, and eventually had Microsoft) to the modern day Maker to evolve around the culture of piracy Movement (who blend technological that Napster kick-started. It’s not6 innovation with traditional DIY skills), outlandish to suggest that the culture they can often be found at the of participation and crowd-sourcing boundaries of what we consider possible. ingrained in the Maker Movement could Most recently, a series of trends are therefore challenge the orthodoxies of coming together to empower the traditional business. latter, potentially giving them as much disruptive potential as their Silicone Valley predecessors. The disruptive impact of technology “Underpinning on traditional business is no longer a surprise. The music, film and publishing all of these industries all had to navigate such changes with the emergence of the ideas is the internet, where copyright infringement inclusion of was often central to the narrative. The potential impact of the Maker Movement the consumer; on the manufacturing industry, just as the first 3D printers come to market, whether in the could equally threaten the current form development, of patent system. It’s a particularly important time pricing, or for 3D printers, given the historical precedent of the content industries. distribution Though currently far from mainstream, of the product.” Tech Trends
  • A more active, participatory role forconsumers is not a new idea. Forexample, there are parallels betweenthe Choose Your Own Adventure books(where children assumed the role ofprotagonist, and were allowed to makechoices resulting in different plots), andsome of the propositions on Kickstarter(a funding platform for creativeprojects, where financial investment is 7incentivised by giving investors a say inthe decision making process).Indeed, Kickstarter is one of a number ofservices testing new funding models forproducts and services. Another is Quirky,designed to enable social productdevelopment by providing a communitythat will evaluate ideas and potentiallydeliver them to market. Pricing modelsare also being explored; the HumbleBundle offered a pay-what-you-wantstructure and was rewarded with $1.1mof sales in less than two weeks for acollection of DRM–free eBooks.Underpinning all of these ideas is theinclusion of the consumer; whether in disruption are largely in place. How thethe development, pricing, or distribution current patent system will adapt toof the product. Coupled with the growth these new open business models, andof the Maker Movement and 3D printing, whether it can keep up, remain to bewhich remove many of the traditional seen. As Chris Anderson, editor of Wiredbarriers to entry in the manufacturing notes, ‘The real revolution here is not inspace, and the ingredients for the creation of the technology, but theinnovation, transformation and democratization of the technology.’ Copyright GfK
  • 03 From push to pull: why information overload is changing consumer behavior The internet changed the way we »» Instapaper provides an easy way to communicate. With email and the save and catalogue web pages you social feeds that followed, we increased come across during the day, allowing the speed of our communications to you to come back to articles as and instant. More recently, thanks to the when you have time to read then shift to mobile, our exposure to these »» The Little Printer from Berg Cloud communications has proliferated, creating can automate a personalised an ‘always-on’ society where interactions newspaper print-out for your morning happen in real-time, rather than when we commute, incorporating your to-do8 choose to fit them into our lives. list, news headlines, and messages from your friends Even when we’re not being demanded to provide real-time responses, we find our »» Undrip integrates and curates your social feeds, attempting to filter out attention drawn to information streams anything that isn’t directly relevant as news breaks, conversations take place, and opinions are formed. »» iDoneThis provides a daily update of what everyone in a team or organisation The internet has enabled a transition achieved, trying to reduce the time from not having enough information, spent micro-managing but left us with too much. A range of The philosophical underpinning for these innovative new products and services products and services has been loosely have responded to this overload, described as Slow Web thinking. The Slow attempting to help us optimise these Web movement takes its inspiration (and information streams and thus shaping name) from the Slow Food movement, the next stage in the evolution of founded by Carlo Petrini in 1986. Where information accessibility. the Slow Food movement encompasses Pre-internet Behavioral data Contextual data Not enough Too much Optimal information information information Tech Trends
  • a range of ethical and environmentalconsiderations as a broad counterpointto the growth of fast food, the Slow Webmovement acknowledges the merits ofthe real-time web while suggesting that“users should not be slaves to it.”There are historical comparisons tobe made with these products andservices. For example, there are parallels 9between the success of games like DrawSomething and Words with Friends(which allow people to take turnsagainst each other, alternately makingmoves in their own time) and play-by-post chess games that enable users toplay each other despite being separatedby geography.However, there’s something unique toservices like Instapaper and Undrip.They’re directly responding to aconsumer need to shape informationand communication around their lives,rather than vice versa. The increasingintelligence inherent in products andservices (see other trends) will furtherenhance their ability to do so. instead think about how to converse withThe implication for service providers is consumers at the right time and place.clear: content and information deliverysystems should better fit within our With traditional consumption continuingneeds and lifestyles. In communications to fragment and the growth of on-with consumers, there’s a need to shift demand media, trying to integrateaway from a focus on shouting loudest seemlessly with individual consumeror most often (share of voice), and lifestyles is no longer optional. Copyright GfK
  • 04 THE DISRUPTION OF HARDWARE: HOW THE CLOUD IS CHANGING THE BASIS OF COMPETITION Two trends underpin the evolution Essentially, as we start to hold more of of computing; increasing power and our information in the cloud, the future decreasing size. From the first moment of personal hardware becomes about that computers arrived in our homes, to access rather than computation. the evolution of desktops and laptops, Another example is the launch of and now the shift to mobiles and tablets, Amazon’s new Silk browser. Utilizing a mobility has always been a key driver in split architecture that allows the device the evolution of hardware. to do some processing remotely via As smartphones become increasingly Amazon Web Services, Silk is seeking10 powerful, they’re also faced with to employ the cloud to improve the practical and physical limitations. For user experience on hardware with lower example, there’s no way to make a technical performance. touch screen device any smaller without It isn’t hard to envision this trend impacting the user experience. One extending across a wider range of possible conclusion is that the next hardware. Indeed, with the onset of disruption in hardware is the removal of the screen altogether. Indeed, as services like Siri become more sophisticated, it’s not impossible to imagine interacting with a device entirely through speech. “As we start to More likely in the interim, given the importance still placed on viewable hold more of our content, is that the basis of competition information in the shifts away from the mobility of computing power altogether. cloud, the future In this context, the employee-driven of personal trend towards ‘bring your own device’ (BYOD) policies can be seen as an hardware early indicator. As mobile devices are increasingly used to access data which becomes about isn’t native to them, the need to carry multiple devices to access different access rather streams (personal, work etc.) lessens. than computation.” Tech Trends
  • the ‘Internet of Things’ (a term used todescribe the extension of connectivitybeyond computers, to a much widerrange of devices and appliances), a shiftto computing in the cloud seems natural.As core computational elementsshift to the cloud, the opportunitiesfor innovation and differentiation inhardware design will increase. Freed from 11current limitations imposedby interface and processingrequirements, device manufacturerscould explore new form factors beyondtoday’s categorizations.With lower barriers to entry for hardwaremanufacturing (and more open, flexiblebusiness models – see trend 2), wecould also see increasing customizationand personalization of hardware. Thiswould mirror recent developments insoftware, where the success of appshas been partly driven by their rolein personalizing the device aroundindividual needs rather than a uniform‘out of the box’ user experience.For businesses, this trend creates a There could also be a significantnumber of opportunities. Notably, the impact in emerging markets, wheregreater the breadth of data held in affordability remains a significant barrierthe cloud, the greater the potential for to consumption. The production ofBig Data analytics. Understanding this low-priced hardware with access to highdata will increasingly drive competitive performance processing could transformadvantages across a range of industries. the current marketplace. Copyright GfK
  • 05 A BRAND OF ME: HOW THE ONLINE ENVIRONMENT IS MAKING THINGS MORE PERSONAL As the pace of technological change picks became the first to pass $1 million in up, market disruptions are becoming sales having built her personal brand to more frequent. It’s hard for brands to amass 17,000 followers on the service. keep up, but it can be equally hard for 2. Coursera is a platform offering individuals. As innovative new products courses from leading universities in an and services change the way we work, attempt to “overcome the boundaries career paths and skill sets are changing of geography, time and money”. with them; a job for life is becoming a thing of the past, and we are increasingly While these distribution and qualification12 multidisciplinary by necessity. platforms can largely be seen as ‘pull’ effects (that is, we have access to them The most visible impact of this trend if and when we need to use them), there is evident in the media and content are also ‘push’ effects driving online industries. As the music, film, and personal branding. Crucially, as a result publishing industries have been disrupted of our growing fondness for social media, and the income of the artists involved we’re progressively branding ourselves has become less secure, many have by accident. looked to diversify their revenue streams in order to safeguard their livelihood. The thought of potential employers trawling through our digital history may For those with an individual brand be a concern, but it also provides an (typically authors, musicians etc.) this opportunity to market ourselves better. can involve a number of facets, from Essentially, the traditional job application embarking on speaking tours to selling process is being supplemented by its their own content and merchandise. One online counterpart. key enabling factor in their ability to do so is the increasing ease of distribution. While we can expect these trends to apply primarily to more tech-orientated The list of services harnessing job roles at first, comparison with the technology to improve (and cheapen) history of social networking suggests distribution is long and getting longer. that a trickle down to the rest of society For example, in education: will follow. There’s already a market for 1. TeachersPayTeachers is a platform purchasing Twitter followers and LinkedIn for teachers to share (and monetize) endorsements, indicating how seriously lesson plans. Deanna Jump recently personal branding is being taken by some. Tech Trends
  • Traditional Traditional Traditional 13 qualifications references interview LinkedIn CV & Followers, Interactions, Coursera-type services Connections & Comments Endorsements & OpinionsIt is debatable what impact this will followers demonstrates that there isultimately have on our current economic value in creating a more trustworthystructure. It’s certainly hard to imagine social currency. There are also issues tothe disruption of our education system be solved in discoverability. In a globalor a working life that revolves around workforce, with almost no limits onmultiple projects rather than a single job, distribution, the amount of data andand yet, increasingly, the preconditions content available is going to increasefor such disruption are in place. If the exponentially. Helping individuals tohistory of the Internet has told us cut through this information and putanything, it’s not to underestimate its themselves in front of an engagedinherent capacity for driving significant audience is going to be even moresocietal change. valuable than it was in the heyday of the traditional record, film andThe opportunity for business is publishing industries.primarily in enabling this Brand of Me.The market for purchasing Twitter Copyright GfK
  • 06 The data agenda: from privacy concerns to ownership questions Data privacy concerns have been high on with increasingly sophisticated facial the technology agenda for some time. recognition software, means that The success of business models based on we’re rapidly moving to a point where monetizing personal data suggests these anonymity is an issue in our offline, as concerns are yet to influence consumer much as in our online, lives. behavior significantly, but there has also The most prescient questions regarding been widespread acknowledgement that our personal data are no longer related to such businesses need to communicate its privacy, but to who owns it in the first better what data they’re collecting and14 place. To explore these questions, we can how it’s being used. draw three broad categories of personal The collection of our personal data data: (Figure 01). is both enabled, and necessitated, By its nature, the last category is by the nature of our digital world. As exempt from data ownership questions more aspects of our lives shift online, at an individual level. Whether offline the data produced (whether passively, or online, we can’t hope to control what through our online behavior, or actively others project onto us, only how we through uploading photos etc.) increases respond to it. Instead, most ownership exponentially. Monetizing this data questions relate to where the distinction drives the business model for many between the first two categories lies. ‘free’ online services, and behavioral economics teaches us that a price point Part of the reason for these concerns is is hard to shift once it’s been ingrained; a tendency to take a reactive attitude these business models are here to stay. to our personal data. Privacy questions have tended to emerge after we’ve given Up to this point, the key difference away control, not before. Consequently, between the online and the offline there’s a significant market opportunity worlds has been the accessibility of for services that would encourage us to this data. However, the evolution of take a more proactive attitude as these technology means we can no longer draw questions become more important. a simple online vs. offline dichotomy in relation to privacy concerns. For Essentially, if our individual data is example, the growth of public (and already being monetized, then it’s up private) closed-circuit television (CCTV) to us to decide where and by whom. networks in many countries, coupled By taking ownership of it, through Tech Trends
  • $ $ $ $ $ $ 15 Inherited data Owned data Earned data Innate data about Data you’ve published: Data projected onto you yourself: genetics, LinkedIn profiles, by others: being tagged habits, preferences, Twitter comments, in Facebook photos, your friends, family, Instagram photos, blog endorsements on colleagues, etc. posts etc. LinkedIn, other people referencing you etc.Figure 01controlling our inherited and earned will be on business to justify their needdata, we could sell access to different for it. Communicating the consumerelements of it as and when we choose benefits of collecting data will becometo. Services such as Mydex are already more important, and transparencyseeking to create this more transparent will be paramount. The opportunitiesdynamic between individuals and are significant; where businesses havebusinesses. The opportunities for the greater access, competitive advantage willlatter are significant; enabling greater increasingly be driven by leveraging thisaccessibility would allow for ever more data. The potential to understand yourtailored, personalized services. customers is increasingly exponentially, but so too is the threat of yourIn a world where consumers are taking competitors understanding them better.ownership of their data, and proactivelydeciding when to use it, the impetus Copyright GfK
  • We are GfKWe are one of the world’s leading marketresearch companies with over 11,000 expertsin more than 100 countries around the world.We understand that your future is based onbig thinking. And that’s our offer to you andevery one of our clients. Whatever your size,and wherever you are.For more information please contacttechtrends@gfk.com