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Predictive Analysis ( Sample Report)

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Standout uses predictive modeling to find opportunities hidden in customer and transactional data.

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Predictive Analysis ( Sample Report)

1. 1. 803 783 8770 PO Box 115 Columbia SC 29202 www.becomestandout.com Acme Customers by Product Type: Predictive Profile Prepared for Acme Company
2. 2. Profile Executive Summary <ul><li>Provide a highly collaborative statistical profile of Acme Company customers by product group </li></ul><ul><li>Identify discriminating attributes that most define an Acme customer </li></ul><ul><li>Develop targeted list recommendations through index calculations as a result of Acme customer attributes over-penetrating consumer universe representation within the same geographical footprint </li></ul><ul><li>Create custom algorithm(s) that are used to score our proprietary consumer data files and predict the propensity of a prospect to become an Acme customer </li></ul>
3. 3. Acme Customers: Cluster Summary Overview
4. 4. Acme Customer Analysis: 4 Cluster Solution Mean = 2.0 Median = 2 Mean = 1.9 Median = 2 Mean = 1.9 Median = 2 Mean = 1.6 Median = 1 Number of Children Mean = 41.2 Median = 42 Mean = 40.9 Median = 40 Mean = 39.2 Median = 38 Mean = 36.5 Median = 34 Age Married = 100% Married = 79% Unknown = 19% Married = 19% Single = 8% Unknown = 73% Single = 25% Unknown = 75% Marital Status (compiled data) A= 99% A = 58% C = 42% A = 26% C = 41% B= 33% A = 7% C = 59% B = 33% Customer Type Mean = 36.8% Median = 35% Mean = 38.6% Median = 37% Mean = 36.1% Median = 35% Mean = 36.9% Median = 35% Employed Professionally Mean = 13.3 Median = 13 Mean = 13.5 Median = 13 Mean = 13.2 Median = 13 Mean = 13.3 Median = 13 Years of Education Mean = 7.3 Median = 8 Mean = 7.0 Median = 7 Mean = 5.6 Median = 5 Mean = 5.5 Median = 5 eConsumer Decile Yes = 15% Yes = 14% Yes = 13% Yes = 13% Small Office/Home Office Male+Female+Kids = 52% Female+Male = 22% Male+Kids = 15% Male+Female+Kids = 44% Female+Male = 23% Male = 16% Female+Male+Kids = 35% Female+Male = 23% Female = 18% Male = 20% Male+Female+Kids = 16% Male+Kids = 15% Household Type (Top 3) Male = 98% Male = 98% Female = 99% Male = 99% Gender Cluster 4 15% Cluster 3 32% Cluster 2 20% Cluster 1 33% Variable
5. 5. Acme Customer Analysis: 4 Cluster Solution, Cont. Mean = 6.1 Median = 7 Mean = 6.1 Median = 7 Mean = 5.6 Median = 6 Mean = 5.6 Median = 6 Wealth Rating Mean = 16k Median = 12k Mean = 44k Median = 10k Mean = 24k Median = 8k Mean = 17k Median = 8k Annual Liability Single = 30% Multiple = 60% Single = 31% Multiple = 57% Single = 30% Multiple = 55% Single = 38% Multiple = 37% Mail Responders Yes = 21% Yes = 18% Yes = 20% Yes = 15% Opportunity Seeker Yes = 8% Yes = 9% Yes = 9% Yes = 8% Political Donor Yes = 10% Yes = 11% Yes = 11% Yes = 8% Health Donor Mean = 107k Median = 62k Mean = 109k Median = 64k Mean = 82k Median = 46k Mean = 99k Median = 54k Annual Income Mean = 152k Median = 132k Mean = 156k Median = 134k Mean = 143k Median = 124k Mean = 150k Median = 125k Home Value Mean = 84.8% Median = 91% Mean = 85.1% Median = 91% Mean = 81.9% Median = 89% Mean = 81.0% Median = 89% Percent Caucasian Cluster 4 15% Cluster 3 32% Cluster 2 20% Cluster 1 33% Variable
6. 6. Acme Customer Distribution Summary Demographic Overview by Variable
7. 7. Understanding Penetration Index Tables Tips for understanding penetration tables: Penetration indexes are indicators of discriminate power. That is, the larger the penetration the greater the mathematical ability to find look-likes during the scoring process. We start out with a distribution for some variable, income is shown below, as well as random sample prospect universe in the same geographical footprint as the customers. We divide the proportion of the customers representation by that of the universe and we arrive at an index that gives us the direction of that difference may be (under or over-penetrated) as well as the magnitude (value). No difference would be 100 as we would have the same distribution for the customer group as we do for the Universe 1/1. Any penetration index under 100 is not highlighted here, those breaking 100 points are highlighted in gray and significant over-penetration is highlighted in blue. 107 127 \$150,000+ 149 192 \$125,000-\$149,999 161 168 \$100,000-\$124,999 149 161 \$75,000-\$99,999 135 123 \$50,000-\$74,999 82 70 \$40,000-\$49,999 67 59 \$30,000-\$39,999 46 36 \$20,000-\$29,999 22 23 Under \$20,000 Product B Customers Product A Customers Household Income 100% 100% 100% 7% 10% 12% \$150,000+ 4% 6% 8% \$125,000-\$149,999 7% 11% 12% \$100,000-\$124,999 14% 20% 22% \$75,000-\$99,999 21% 28% 26% \$50,000-\$74,999 11% 9% 8% \$40,000-\$49,999 10% 7% 6% \$30,000-\$39,999 10% 4% 3% \$20,000-\$29,999 16% 4% 4% Under \$20,000 Universe Product B Customers Product A Customers Household Income
8. 8. Demographics: Region Grouping states into regions allows us to understand areas of over-representation. The largest responder base is found in the South and Middle Atlantic followed closely by East North Central. Patterns are stable across groups for most regions with the exception of The Middle Atlantic and the West South Central, indicating Product B Customers is most represented in the Middle Atlantic. As indicated within the penetration index table, when compared with the universe, the only region with significant penetration is the Middle Atlantic and significant under-penetration in the Mountain region. 94 119 New England 83 129 Middle Atlantic 78 96 West South Central 126 112 South Atlantic 98 52 East South Central 110 100 West North Central 104 94 East North Central 73 65 Pacific 142 127 Mountain Product B Product A Region 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Product A Customers 7% 10% 15% 5% 3% 24% 10% 22% 6% Product B Customers 8% 11% 17% 6% 6% 26% 8% 14% 5% Universe 6% 14% 16% 6% 6% 20% 12% 14% 5% Mountain Pacific East North Central West North Central East South Central South Atlantic West South Middle Atlantic New England
9. 9. The majority of all customer groups are classified as Male. Over representation of the male could be the result of household level matching routines that generally provide a male head of household. Demographics: Gender 163 163 Male 43 43 Female Product B Product A Gender 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Product A Customers 20% 77% 3% Product B Customers 20% 77% 3% Universe 48% 47% 5% Female Male Unknown
10. 10. Demographics: Age Range Age range distributions show significant skew in the 25-54 year range. Index table guidelines indicate that age increases representation of Product A and Product B customers. 8 6 75+ Years 13 17 65-74 Years 43 46 55-64 Years 151 160 45-54 Years 226 223 35-44 Years 118 109 25-34 Years 19 19 18-24 Years Product B Product A Age 0% 10% 20% 30% Product A Customers 7% 10% 15% 5% 3% 24% 10% 22% 6% Product B Customers 8% 11% 17% 6% 6% 26% 8% 14% 5% Universe 6% 14% 16% 6% 6% 20% 12% 14% 5% Mountain Pacific East North West North East South South Atlantic West South Middle Atlantic New England
11. 11. Demographics: Household Income With regard to income there is little difference across the groups. Customer segments peak at the \$50,000 to \$100,000 level. Product A and Product B show significant penetration in the upper deciles of income. 107 127 \$150,000+ 149 192 \$125,000-\$149,999 161 168 \$100,000-\$124,999 149 161 \$75,000-\$99,999 135 123 \$50,000-\$74,999 82 70 \$40,000-\$49,999 67 59 \$30,000-\$39,999 46 36 \$20,000-\$29,999 22 23 Under \$20,000 Product B Product A Household Income 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Product A Customers 4% 3% 6% 8% 26% 22% 12% 8% 12% Product B Customers 7% 7% 8% 9% 25% 18% 10% 6% 10% Universe 16% 10% 10% 11% 21% 14% 7% 4% 10% Under \$20,000 \$20,000- \$29,999 \$30,000- \$39,999 \$40,000- \$49,999 \$50,000- \$74,999 \$75,000- \$99,999 \$100,000- \$124,999 \$125,000- \$149,999 \$150,000+
12. 12. Demographics: Wealth Rating Wealth Rating measures financial affluence originating from assets (education, income geography, gender, occupation home value, etc.) to appraise overall economic value. The pattern of skewness toward the upper deciles holds true for many financial models as seen here. The Product A customers tend to have the greatest wealth over any other group. 124 153 9 137 159 8 122 132 7 119 123 6 111 108 5 100 88 4 87 72 3 68 53 2 62 41 1 38 22 0 Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Product A Customers 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 11% 13% 15% 19% 18% Product B Customers 3% 5% 6% 8% 10% 11% 13% 14% 16% 14% Universe 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
13. 13. Demographics: Occupation Out of 42 potential occupations Executive/Administrator and Upper Management/Executive are among the top represented occupations. Executive/Administrator positions are significantly more represented for Product A than for Product B. Occupation is a powerful discriminator for customers in general as indicated in the penetration table. 272 383 Upper Management/ Executive 90 133 Sales/Marketing 302 460 Executive/ Administrator Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Product A Customers 22% 3% 7% Product B Customers 14% 2% 5% Universe 5% 2% 2% Executive/ Administrator Sales/Marketing Upper Management/
14. 14. Demographics: Small Office/Home Office There is little difference across customer groups for Small Office/Home Office representation with some moderate overpenetration for all groups with Product A. 127 144 Filtered SOHO 123 138 All SOHO Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Product A Customers 17% 14% Product B Customers 16% 12% Universe 13% 10% All SOHO Filtered SOHO
15. 15. Demographics: Marital Status It is very interesting to note that Product A Customers are significantly more populated in the married category compared to any other customer group. Marital status will play a role in the clustering of customer groups and the defining of single women and younger populations. 116 76 Single 92 107 Married Product B Product A   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Product A Customers 78% 21% 1% Product B Customers 67% 31% 2% Universe 73% 27% 0% Married Unmarried (Single, Divorced, Separated
17. 17. Demographics: Number of Children Presence of children dominates the customer groups with no meaningful differences seen between the groups for each category with the exception of the “None Present” segment. 245 277 4 or More Children 213 215 3 Children 174 197 2 Children 123 128 1 Child 27 12 None Present Product B Product A   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Product A Customers 5% 44% 29% 13% 9% Product B Customers 11% 42% 26% 13% 8% Universe 42% 34% 15% 6% 3% None Present 1 Child 2 Children 3 Children 4 or More Children
18. 18. Demographics: Length of Residence Here we see Product A and Product B customer groups following similar patterns: Increasing in representation as length of residence increases. 65 80 14 thru highest 88 137 10 to 13 117 169 7 to 9 119 146 4 to 6 108 52 2 to 3 124 22 Lowest Thru 1 Product B Product A   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Product A Customers 2% 11% 30% 21% 16% 19% Product B Customers 12% 23% 24% 15% 11% 16% Universe 10% 21% 20% 13% 12% 24% Lowest Thru 1 2 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 to 13 14 thru highest
19. 19. Demographics: Interest Indicators Interest areas are helpful in further discriminating during scoring and are helpful in targeted messaging. We see that all groups are most interested in the Athletics, Fitness and Domestic (such as gardening, decorating, and crafts). 200 331 Technology 221 307 Do-It-Yourself 232 323 Blue Chip 193 259 Cultural 210 280 GoodLife 183 258 Domestic 207 296 Fitness 225 339 Athletic 191 257 Outdoors Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% Product A Customers 6% 10% 14% 14% 8% 7% 7% 9% 10% Product B Customers 4% 6% 10% 10% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% Universe 2% 3% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% Outdoors Athletic Fitness Domestic GoodLife Cultural Blue Chip Do-It- Yourself Technology
20. 20. Demographics: Magazine Subscription Magazine subscriptions correlate with interests categories discussed above, in that interests in athletics and fitness are supported by the large representation in Health and Fitness Subscriptions shown here. Family and financial are also supporting the profiles discussed above. 97 115 Opportunity Seekers 99 135 News & Financial 94 122 Do-It-Yourselfers 108 141 Health & Fitness 79 95 Culinary Interests 80 97 Garden/ Farming 112 160 Sports 70 99 Female Oriented 93 130 Family & General Product B Product A   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Product A Customers 25% 7% 12% 7% 6% 42% 12% 18% 17% Product B Customers 18% 5% 8% 6% 5% 33% 10% 13% 15% Universe 19% 7% 8% 7% 6% 30% 10% 13% 15% Family & General Female Oriented Sports Garden/ Farming Culinary Interests Health & Fitness Do-It- Yourselfers News & Financial Opportunity Seekers
21. 21. Demographics: Purchasing Behavior Female purchases dominate the picture here. Again the power of the purse is evident in this customer database. 108 145 Gifts and Gadgets 105 145 Garden/ Farming 113 156 Crafts/ Hobbies 99 124 Female 109 149 Male Product B Product A   0% 10% 20% 30% Product A Customers 9% 24% 11% 3% 21% Product B Customers 6% 19% 8% 2% 16% Universe 6% 19% 7% 2% 14% Male Female Crafts/ Hobbies Garden/ Farming Gifts and Gadgets
22. 22. Demographics: Donor Behavior Donor Behavior is an indicator of discretionary income. It can also be construed as an indicator to determine levels of conservatism/liberalism. Here we see that charitable donations dominate. Product A has the highest level of donating behavior. 144 212 Charitable Causes 133 193 Environment Causes 76 95 Health 65 81 General 79 94 Political 68 81 Religious Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Product A Customers 4% 9% 11% 2% 8% 27% Product B Customers 3% 8% 9% 2% 5% 18% Universe 5% 10% 13% 2% 4% 13% Religious Political General Health Environment Causes Charitable Causes
23. 23. Demographics: Mail Response Frequency This variable is an indicator of the potential to respond to direct mail and is predictive of response in general. We see that the Product A responders are much more likely to be responders to direct mail as indicated by the multiple mail responder flag. 109 141 Multiple 139 141 Single Product B Product A   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Product A Customers 30% 53% 16% Product B Customers 30% 41% 29% Universe 21% 38% 41% Single Multiple Unknown
24. 24. Demographics: Mosaics There are 13 potential geo-demographical Experian clusters. Product A customers are most defined by Small Town Success. Product A and Product B are also more represented in Metro Fringe than the other groups. In terms of overall distributions that largest occurs in Small Town Success and Metro Fringe nearly double that of the national average. 110 80 Struggling Societies 112 109 Rural Villages and Farms 104 100 Aspiring Contemporaries 75 65 Remote America 160 181 Metro Fringe 164 200 American Diversity 127 140 Blue-Collar Backbone 197 258 Small-Town Success 153 181 Upscale America 77 91 Affluent Suburbia Product B Product A   0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Product A Customers 2% 10% 20% 2% 5% 15% 8% 3% 7% 4% Product B Customers 2% 9% 15% 2% 4% 13% 10% 3% 8% 6% Universe 2% 6% 8% 2% 3% 8% 13% 3% 7% 5% Affluent Suburbia Upscale America Small- Town Success Blue-Collar Backbone American Diversity Metro Fringe Remote America Aspiring Contempor aries Rural Villages and Farms Struggling Societies
25. 25. Mosaic Descriptions Affluent Suburbia Affluent Suburbia represents the most affluent 10.67 percent of U.S. Households. The members of this privileged segment are predominantly middle-aged, married adults with children in single-family suburban homes. Very well-educated, many in this segment have graduate degrees and are health care professionals and business and financial executives-representing many of America’s professional leaders. Mainly White or Asian in race, they live in well-established, substantial homes situated near or within metropolitan areas. They live very busy lives, often balancing job, family and social activities. These households are nearly five times more likely to have an annual household income great than \$ 150,000. Upscale America The Upscale America group represents established, well-to-do households that include a combination of singles, married couples and families of diverse age ranges. They represent approximately 10.6 percent of U.S. households that reside in urban and suburban neighborhoods. Ethnically diverse, with a drive to succeed, this group is an illustration of the American dream. Capitalizing on the opportunities available to them, this group enjoys their friends, family and the monetary rewards that their hard work provides for them. Small-Town Contentment Small-Town Contentment represents 11.42 percent of American households located in small urban and second city areas. These areas are home to predominately white, married and family-oriented households who own homes. They commute to professions in manufacturing, Customers sales and health care and enjoy dual-median incomes in the \$50,000 range in order to support the creature comforts they have come to expect and have worked hard to achieve. Blue-Collar Backbone Blue-Collar Backbone represents the successful blue-collar workers across the country. They total 6.64 percent of United States households and consist of predominately high school-educated individuals and some college experience. Most own their own homes. Representing diverse neighborhoods within densely populated regions and small-town suburbs, they are ethnically diverse. They work hard jobs in manufacturing and construction, health services, retail, and wholesale trades, providing the stable foundation for their personal and family pursuits. Median incomes fall in the \$30,000 to \$40,000 range.
26. 26. American Diversity As the name implies, this groupie is an illustration of how contrasting mid-America’s population is. Varied in marital status, ethnicity and age ranges, they represent 9.63 percent of American households, residing mainly within low-density urban areas. Careers in management, manufacturing, retail and health services provide them the means for their moderate to ample lifestyle and deliver median incomes within the \$35, 000 to \$40,000 range. Metro Fringe Metro Fringe represents the most populated group, representing 11.91 percent of U.S. households and most closely mirroring the U.S. median, with a variety of races represented. Mainly living on the edge of metropolitan areas, they enjoy home ownership and conventional complements to their lifestyles. Less than half are married and are split equally between imported and domestic vehicles. Median incomes fall within the \$29,000 to \$42,000 range, and professions include a mix of manufacturing, construction, Customers, health and food services occupations. Remote America Remote America makes up 6.04 percent of U.S. households. These neighborhoods include middle-aged inhabitants in blue-collar, mining and agricultural, rural communities. Many live in single-family homes, mobile homes or trailers and approximately one-third have children in the home. Education levels are low, and consequently, income levels are moderately low, falling in the median ranges of \$28,000 to \$37,000. Domestic cars and pickup trucks can be found in the driveways of these homes. Aspiring Contemporaries This resoundingly diverse ethnic group represents the up-and-coming of American society. Living within easy reach of or within major metropolitan areas, this group enjoys careers in information, sales, administration, education, health and other service professions. Aspiring Contemporaries represent 8.94 percent of U.S. households. Approximately 40 percent are married and own their homes. These career builders enjoy median incomes just under \$50,000 and appear to represent mid-tier management. The majority in this group opts to own import vehicles. Mosaic Descriptions
27. 27. <ul><li>Rural Villages and Farms </li></ul><ul><li>Rural Villages and Farms equate to 10.38 percent of U.S. households. Representing America’s agricultural and mining communities most are White family households that own their homes, some in mobile homes and trailers. They work hard to provide the tranquil life to which their family has become accustomed through farming, agriculture, education, mining and other service industries. They enjoy median incomes in the \$40,000 range and own domestic pick-up trucks, traditional family sedans or compact cars. </li></ul><ul><li>Struggling Societies </li></ul><ul><li>Struggling Societies symbolize the challenges faced by 6.63 percent if U.S. households. They are ethnically diverse-approximately 40 percent are Hispanic and 25 percent are African-American. Employment opportunities lead them to blue-collar, agricultural, health and service industry jobs. However, this group is double the national average for unemployment. Many single-parent households must balance priorities and budgets. Median incomes fall into a wide range of \$19,000 to \$33,000. Economical domestic and import cares and light trucks are the vehicles of choice for this group. </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Essence </li></ul><ul><li>This group features a diverse range of residents who reside within major metropolitan cities and towns. Urban Essence mimics 7.07 percent of U.S. households. Predominately African American and Hispanic, many are single, younger adults (including some single parents). With below-average incomes and above average households size, this group supports their lifestyle at employment within food an health services, education, retail, and arts and entertainment industries. The majority of this segment enjoys apartment living, and those who own vehicles opt for a diverse selection of economy, import, and domestic cars and light trucks. </li></ul><ul><li>Varying Lifestyles </li></ul><ul><li>Varying Lifestyles represent less than 1 percent (0.48 percent) of households within the United States. A majority of this group lives the unique lifestyles offered by military and university dorm life. </li></ul>Mosaic Descriptions
28. 28. Acme Customer Penetration Summary List Recommendations