Resource Efficiency is the Key to Resilient Local Governments Presentation for ICLEI Dennis Meadows Seville 21 March 2007

Overview of my Comments Humanity’s use of energy and resources has grown above sustainable levels. Although hopes and expectations are for continued growth, energy and resource use will decline over the coming decades (we can choose the path, or it will be forced on us.) CO 2 emissions and petroleum use are just two things that must be reduced (also food, ground water, trees, biodiversity, and others.) Responsibility for passing through the period of decline peacefully and equitably, while reducing the permanent damage to the ecosystem, will fall on local governments. Governments must solve global and universal problems using both adaptive strategies and preventive strategies - increased efficiency is essential for both of these. New technologies will be helpful, but they will not eliminate the need for ethical and cultural change.

Humanity’s use of energy and resources has grown above sustainable levels.

Although hopes and expectations are for continued growth, energy and resource use will decline over the coming decades (we can choose the path, or it will be forced on us.)

CO 2 emissions and petroleum use are just two things that must be reduced (also food, ground water, trees, biodiversity, and others.)

Responsibility for passing through the period of decline peacefully and equitably, while reducing the permanent damage to the ecosystem, will fall on local governments.

Governments must solve global and universal problems using both adaptive strategies and preventive strategies - increased efficiency is essential for both of these.

New technologies will be helpful, but they will not eliminate the need for ethical and cultural change.

World Population

Industrial Production

Index of World Metals Use

CO 2 Concentration

Wackernagel’s Indicator of Overshoot

Overshoot and Decline Resources Population Pollution Industrial Output Food

Sustainable Development Resources Population Pollution Industrial Output Food

“ Sind die Menschen noch zu retten?” Die Zeit, 16.11.06 If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, .. all seafood faces collapse by 2048. By the middle of the century … no fewer than 7 billion people in 60 countries may be faced with water scarcity . Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. .. Fundamental changes are urgent…. - more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries (Ignoring climate change) “could create risks of major Disruption to economic and social activity… on a scale Similar to those associated with the great wars.” Stern Review October 2006

Resources & Energy Per Year # of people * * Satisfaction Person - Year Resources & Energy Satisfaction Resource Efficiency Policies Demography Culture Technology

Two Types of Problems Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation. Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved locally by local action: soil erosion, water pollution, oil depletion.

Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation.

Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved locally by local action: soil erosion, water pollution, oil depletion.

Two Types of Policy It is too late to avoid some problems; for these adaptive strategies are required, for example climate change. Strong, new preventive policies imple-mented now can avoid some potential future problems, for example epidemics, nuclear proliferation

It is too late to avoid some problems; for these adaptive strategies are required, for example climate change.

Strong, new preventive policies imple-mented now can avoid some potential future problems, for example epidemics, nuclear proliferation

Gap between Discovery and Use

Global Oil Production will Peak Soon

Energy Gap Today 13 TW, 2050 projected - 30 Projected shortfall is 17 - 20 TW Building 1 1000 MW nuclear plant/day for 50 years would give 10 TW

Today 13 TW, 2050 projected - 30

Projected shortfall is 17 - 20 TW

Building 1 1000 MW nuclear plant/day for 50 years would give 10 TW

Easy Problems Now Future Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Actual Desired Action #2

Difficult Problems Now Future Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Action #2 Actual Desired

Difficult Problems Become Easy with Greater Time Horizon Now Future Better -------> Next Evaluation Action #1 Action #2 Actual Desired

The Goal Move your fist in a clock-wise direction

Move your fist in a clock-wise direction

Clock-wise Direction Counter Clock-wise Direction

The Rules Always keep your thumb up Do not stop the movement of your fist Do not change the direction of your fist Slowly move your fist from above your head down to the level of belt

Always keep your thumb up

Do not stop the movement of your fist

Do not change the direction of your fist

Slowly move your fist from above your head down to the level of belt