Making the case for a strong Dublin
November 2013
jamie.cudden@dublincity.ie

Activating Dublin
Presentation Overview
• Discuss the international perspective on
cities & global trends
• What this means for Dublin and I...
Why do Cities Matter?
 Many observers talk about the 21st century being
the century of cities. The world is not flat .
 ...
Importance of Cities
“ Most OECD metro-regions have a higher GDP per
capita than their national average (66 out of 78
metr...
We live in a spiky world

Source: Atlantic, The World is Spiky, 2005
Leading global cities are New York, London, Singapore and Hong Kong

“ Well over half of the world’s population
now lives ...
“ While $8.1 billion was
spent on smart city
technologies in 2010, by
2016 that number is
projected to reach $39.5
billion...
Dublin
http://www.citigroup.com/citi/citiforcities/pdfs/hotspots202
5.pdf

Dublin projected to be 22nd most
competitive gl...
The Top 600 Global Cities

Top 600 cities account for 60% of global GDP yet hold about 20% of the population
Jamie Cudden ...
City GDP 2005

Source: McKinsey CityScope
Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
City GDP 2025

• Over 100 new Chinese cities to enter the top 600 by 2025
• Not just megacities…
Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
Cities represent the Biggest Commercial
Opportunity in the coming decades
• One-third of the world’s population—2.6 billio...
• Metros drive economic growth, action shifts to Asia,
Latin America, & Eastern Europe:
• 90% of the fastest-growing metro...
Source: Dublin Chamber of Commerce 2010, Making the Case for Dublin
What does this mean for Dublin?
“Dublin operates in an intensely
competitive world where increasingly
it is cities (and no...
What does this mean for Dublin?
Global trends:
• Increasing levels of human mobility and demand for skills
(expected to do...
Dublin: A magnet for FDI
PwC’s Global 100

Software Leaders
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Microsoft
IBM
Oracle
SAP
Ericsson
Symant...
IDA investment locations – concentrated in Dublin

Investment Locations by key (Gateway) areas

Williams, B., Foley, W., C...
Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin

Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin

Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin

Source: Frontline Ventures

Ireland Tech Start Up Guide
IDA investments and jobs

IDA Annual Report, 2013

- Dublin continues to dominate, grabbing 6,389 or 54% of the jobs.
- Du...
• “The Greater Dublin Region in Ireland is the best European
region of the future for economic potential, on account of
th...
Talent and Education
Dublin and a few key Gateways are
the centres for talent and
opportunity
The Economist Intelligence U...
Talent Attraction
High skill work permits issued to Non EU persons
Dublin accounted for over 60% of the total..

http://ww...
Start up ecosystem rankings –
cities not countries

- Dublin not in the top 20
Start up phenomenon....
Two major global trends in tech start ups is the urban shift in the
underlying model as well as th...
Spatial Representations of Population Change
2002-2011 and Job Density

Job Density in Ireland based on 2006 Census data
(...
Property Market – Dublin v Rest

CSO, 2013

- Pressure is building on the Dublin region.....
Jamie Cudden – Activating Dub...
Latest Labour Force Stats

*unadjusted figures
Source: CSO, 2013

Unemployment 10.5% in Dublin versus 13%

Jamie Cudden – ...
Business Locations
• Mapping of business
locations across two
High value sectors
• Hot Spots in a few
Key Gateways – Galwa...
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Accommodation and Food Services

•Mapping of Geo Directory Businesses (2012)

Different...
Tax contribution
Data on tax contribution for the year 2008 delivered in response to a
Parliamentary Question in 2010 foun...
Opinion on Dublin - SWOT
STRENGTHS
Ability to attract, produce and retain
talent- critical mass of talent
Good business en...
Conclusions
• By international standards Dublin is a medium sized or
small city, ranked 77th out of 78 cities in terms of
...
Conclusions
• Dublin has the critical mass of skills and workforce to
attract international investment
• Evidence base sho...
National Competitiveness Council
"As Ireland’s only city of international scale,
continued investment in Dublin is necessa...
Recommendations
• A succession of ignored policy recommendations from
the 1960’s on the form, funding and financing of loc...
Recommendations
• All the national and international evidence
demonstrates that:
• It should be clearly recognised that Du...
The Metropolitan Revolution
The book argues that metro areas — or, cities
and suburbs together — are powerful economic
eng...
Role of government....
• The point of the metropolitan revolution is not that
these so-called higher levels of government ...
Extra Material
• Selection of useful international indicators
Some Recent Coverage and
indicators.....
“Emerging Tech: Dublin one of 9

International Startup Hubs to Watch”

“New Silic...
Dublin ranked
overall the fourth
most prosperous
city in the
2012/13 UN
prosperity index
Report:
http://www.unhabitat.org/...
International examples of cities
• Germany’s top four metropolitan economies –
Cologne-Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Frankfurt and ...
Quality and Cost of Living
Quality of Living
• Dublin 35th city in the world for quality of living (Mercer, 2012)
• Dublin...
The biggest web summit outside of the US

Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
• Dublin 13th friendliest place in world (Cork 20th and
Kilkenny 9th , Conde Nast traveler survey, 2013
“Ireland’s most fa...
Tourism and Cities – Nov 2013
Tourism Intelligence International launches its
brand new study entitled, "Cities on the Ris...
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Making the Case for a Strong Dublin

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Looking at why Ireland needs a strong Dublin. These slides demonstrate the importance of cities in the global economy, looks at where Dublin sits in this context and the importance of Dublin in relation to talent and attracting FDI. The recommendations are based on research developed with UCD: "Dublin's role in the National and Global economy" See www.dra.ie for access to the full reports.

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  • Lisbon, Nairobi, St Petersburg, Stockholm, Toronto, Amsterdam, Bogoto, Bangelore
  • Word of caution in relation to benchmarkingBe wary of the metricsBranding opportunity
  • 10,000+ attendees from 100+ countries will be at the#WebSummit this October 2013.
  • Making the Case for a Strong Dublin

    1. 1. Making the case for a strong Dublin November 2013 jamie.cudden@dublincity.ie Activating Dublin
    2. 2. Presentation Overview • Discuss the international perspective on cities & global trends • What this means for Dublin and Ireland • Conclusions / Discussion Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin. Twitter: @jcudden
    3. 3. Why do Cities Matter?  Many observers talk about the 21st century being the century of cities. The world is not flat .  For the first time in 2010 over half the world's population now live in cities. 3.8 billion by 2015 (53%)  They drive global GDP. Generating more than 80 per cent of global GDP today.  Cities occupy just 2% of the world’s land surface yet they house more than 50% of the world’s population Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin. Twitter: @jcudden
    4. 4. Importance of Cities “ Most OECD metro-regions have a higher GDP per capita than their national average (66 out of 78 metro-regions), a higher labour productivity level (65 out of 78 metro-regions) and many of them tended to have faster growth rates than their countries” “Cities such as Budapest, Seoul, Copenhagen, Dublin, Helsinki, RandstadHolland and Brussels that concentrate nearly half of their national GDP whilst Oslo, Auckland, Prague, London, Stockholm, Tokyo, and Paris account for around one third” Source: OECD, competitive cities in the Global economy "Successful cities attract talented young highly-skilled workers, are centres of innovation and entrepreneurship and are competitive locations for global and regional headquarters. The proximity of universities to research and production facilities means cities are where new products are developed and commercialised. More than 80% of patents are filed in cities.“ OECD Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    5. 5. We live in a spiky world Source: Atlantic, The World is Spiky, 2005
    6. 6. Leading global cities are New York, London, Singapore and Hong Kong “ Well over half of the world’s population now lives in cities, generating more than 80% of global GDP. Already, global business is beginning to plan strategy from a city, rather than a country, perspective. Given the rapid growth and development of many cities, particularly in emerging markets such as China and India, competition between them for business, investment and talent will only get fiercer” Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 2011 / Citi Bank Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    7. 7. “ While $8.1 billion was spent on smart city technologies in 2010, by 2016 that number is projected to reach $39.5 billion” Source: ABI Research 2011
    8. 8. Dublin http://www.citigroup.com/citi/citiforcities/pdfs/hotspots202 5.pdf Dublin projected to be 22nd most competitive global city in the Overall 2025 City Competitiveness rankings table 120 cities ranked Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    9. 9. The Top 600 Global Cities Top 600 cities account for 60% of global GDP yet hold about 20% of the population Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    10. 10. City GDP 2005 Source: McKinsey CityScope Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    11. 11. City GDP 2025 • Over 100 new Chinese cities to enter the top 600 by 2025 • Not just megacities…
    12. 12. Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    13. 13. Cities represent the Biggest Commercial Opportunity in the coming decades • One-third of the world’s population—2.6 billion people—live in emerging-market cities, and by 2030, that number will increase by an additional 1.3 billion. • Middle-class population expected to rise 70 percent between 2010 and 2015. Effecting everything from where these individuals live to how they consume. Source: Boston Consulting Group
    14. 14. • Metros drive economic growth, action shifts to Asia, Latin America, & Eastern Europe: • 90% of the fastest-growing metropolitan economies among the 200 largest worldwide were located outside North America and Western Europe. • By contrast, 95% of the slowest-growing metro economies were in the United States, Western Europe, and earthquake-damaged Japan. Source: Brookings Metro Monitor, 2011
    15. 15. Source: Dublin Chamber of Commerce 2010, Making the Case for Dublin
    16. 16. What does this mean for Dublin? “Dublin operates in an intensely competitive world where increasingly it is cities (and not states) competing for investment, talent, tourism, international students” Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    17. 17. What does this mean for Dublin? Global trends: • Increasing levels of human mobility and demand for skills (expected to double by 2020) • Growth projections for international students (to triple by 2020) and transnational tourism (+75% by 2020) • About taking these opportunities • Markets and cities that have never heard of Dublin Sources: • • • Dirks. S., Keeling, M and Gurdgiev, C., 2010, Smarter Cities for Smarter Growth, IBM Institute for Business Value. UN World Tourism Organisation (2009) Young-Chul Kim (2009): The Asia-Pacific education market and modes of supply. In: The Asia-Pacific education market, eds. William Tierney and Christopher Findlay, quoted in Hawthorne 2008. Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    18. 18. Dublin: A magnet for FDI PwC’s Global 100 Software Leaders 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Microsoft IBM Oracle SAP Ericsson Symantec HP EMC (excl. VMware) CA Technologies Adobe Source: Data was compiled by the Global Software Business Strategies Group at IDC. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fortune 500 US Companies 2013 Apple AT&T HP Verizon IBM Microsoft Amazon.com Dell Intel Google in Ireland In Dublin •9 of the top 10 Global Software Leaders are in Dublin and 8 of the top 10 US companies are here •Dublin has one of the best track records for FDI in Europe. Voted the ‘Best to Invest’ European Metro in 2012 and third best in 2013. Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    19. 19. IDA investment locations – concentrated in Dublin Investment Locations by key (Gateway) areas Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    20. 20. Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    21. 21. Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    22. 22. Example of the tech / Internet investment in Dublin Source: Frontline Ventures Ireland Tech Start Up Guide
    23. 23. IDA investments and jobs IDA Annual Report, 2013 - Dublin continues to dominate, grabbing 6,389 or 54% of the jobs. - Dublin was far ahead of the second-best performing centre, Cork — where 1,979 or 17% of the overall FDI jobs were located. - Galway secured 859 jobs, Limerick 400, and Louth 386. Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    24. 24. • “The Greater Dublin Region in Ireland is the best European region of the future for economic potential, on account of the large amount of FDI per capita it has attracted, especially greenfield FDI projects in R&D. The banking crisis in Ireland does not seem to have affected FDI into the Dublin region; project numbers were up 15% year on year in 2011, following the banking bailout at the end of 2010. Investors in Ireland benefit from a favourable corporation tax regime; 20% of FDI projects in the Greater Dublin Region in 2011 were classified as headquarters” • http://www.fdiintelligence.com/Rankings/European-Cities-and-Regions-of-the-Future-2012-13
    25. 25. Talent and Education Dublin and a few key Gateways are the centres for talent and opportunity The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked Dublin number one in having the best “human capital” in the world Dublin is the only Gateway with more graduates than it produces Dublin region is the leading education location in Ireland, with 50 percent of all students in the university sector based there, and 63 percent of all PhD students Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    26. 26. Talent Attraction High skill work permits issued to Non EU persons Dublin accounted for over 60% of the total.. http://www.siliconrepublic.com/careers/item/34899-number-of-irish-work-permit “75% of Google staff have relocated from overseas to work in Dublin” - John Herlihy, VP of Online Sales and Operations, Google Ireland “Competition for Foreign Direct Investment is significantly increasing and the availability of skilled labour is, amongst other things, one of the main deciding factors when companies are choosing a location for their overseas investments. The fact that Ireland continues to lead the way in availability of skilled labour adds significantly to our reputation as a host for FDI” – Barry O'Leary, CEO, IDA Ireland Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    27. 27. Start up ecosystem rankings – cities not countries - Dublin not in the top 20
    28. 28. Start up phenomenon.... Two major global trends in tech start ups is the urban shift in the underlying model as well as the globalization of start-ups which creates great opportunities for Dublin -Dublin is the centre of the start up scene in Ireland -Needs attention to make it a world leader Source: Martin Prosperity Institute, 2013
    29. 29. Spatial Representations of Population Change 2002-2011 and Job Density Job Density in Ireland based on 2006 Census data (Morgenroth, 2011) Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    30. 30. Property Market – Dublin v Rest CSO, 2013 - Pressure is building on the Dublin region..... Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    31. 31. Latest Labour Force Stats *unadjusted figures Source: CSO, 2013 Unemployment 10.5% in Dublin versus 13% Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    32. 32. Business Locations • Mapping of business locations across two High value sectors • Hot Spots in a few Key Gateways – Galway, Cork, Dublin and Limerick ICT Financial and Insurance Activities •Mapping of Geo Directory Businesses (2012) Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    33. 33. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Accommodation and Food Services •Mapping of Geo Directory Businesses (2012) Different Strengths in Different Areas.....need to play to the strengths of the regions... Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    34. 34. Tax contribution Data on tax contribution for the year 2008 delivered in response to a Parliamentary Question in 2010 found that citizens or companies located in Dublin[1] – contributed 55.6% of all VAT in 2008, followed by Cork at 8.8% and Kildare 3.4 – paid 62.4% of all Corporation Tax yielding €3.2bn out of a total tax of €5.1bn in 2008. – paid 50.6% of state PAYE in 2008 producing an estimated exchequer revenue of €5 billion for the Government. – paid 38.8% of non-PAYE income tax followed by Cork at 11%, Galway 4.5%, Kildare 4%, Limerick 3.9%, Meath 3.5%, Wicklow 3.4% and Tipperary 3.0%. – contributed 41% of all Capital Gains Tax intakes – Figures taken from response to parliamentary question July 2010 [2] • [1] A number of caveats are attached to these figures due to reporting discrepancies such as Corporation Tax being collated based on the county address of company HQ or the relevant branch for tax purposes. [2] http://www.leovaradkar.ie/?p=1076 Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    35. 35. Opinion on Dublin - SWOT STRENGTHS Ability to attract, produce and retain talent- critical mass of talent Good business environment – cluster effect A city of global scale and/or importance Relatively good quality of living Much improved transport infrastructure WEAKNESSES High unemployment/Youth Unemployment Interregional competition Outdated planning and governance structures Inadequate Connectivity Economic crisis OPPORTUNITIES Attracting new investment/entrants Increased collaboration across public and private Growing new creative industry Enhancing the tourism potential Enhancing the built fabric and unlocking underdeveloped areas Connecting to emerging cities THREATS Lack of investment in critical infrastructure (water, rail) Skill shortages Competition from emerging markets Factors undermining competitivenessCongestion Antisocial behaviour * Based on interviews with over 40 key stakeholders across the Dublin Region Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    36. 36. Conclusions • By international standards Dublin is a medium sized or small city, ranked 77th out of 78 cities in terms of population by the OECD. • Dublin accounts for almost half of national GDP and its effective management and continued success is critical for the performance of the entire economy • Dublin and its commuter counties face increased pressures as urbanisation and migration towards the east coast continues • The Dublin region is expected to take a projected population increase of over 200,000 persons from 2010 to 2022 the Mid East has been apportioned 100,000 in the same period. Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    37. 37. Conclusions • Dublin has the critical mass of skills and workforce to attract international investment • Evidence base shows that Dublin has been resilient in certain sectors such as ICT and Finance, actually growing the numbers of enterprises notably in ICT. • Key areas such as transport, water and broadband infrastructure require future proofing to maintain the competitiveness of Dublin. • International benchmarks indicate a need to improve our performance in these areas to maintain competitiveness Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    38. 38. National Competitiveness Council "As Ireland’s only city of international scale, continued investment in Dublin is necessary to maintain and improve its position as an internationally competitive location. A competitive Dublin can serve to strengthen the performance and attractiveness of other Irish cities and provide them with opportunities that may not be accessible otherwise“ NCC competitiveness council 2010
    39. 39. Recommendations • A succession of ignored policy recommendations from the 1960’s on the form, funding and financing of local government.... • These reports generally support the interview opinion that local government should have greater levels of autonomy with the assigning of revenue generation powers to local government linked with expenditure responsibilities. • Common messages included continued potential of the city region, inadequate broadband, need for greater levels of collaboration, threat of congestion, brownfield regeneration, skill and language deficiencies and the challenge of maintaining competitiveness...... Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    40. 40. Recommendations • All the national and international evidence demonstrates that: • It should be clearly recognised that Dublin is a unique case and national asset. • No room for complacency in this regards – the international competition is intense.... • If we maximise the capacity of Dublin we maximise the potential of the entire country. Targeted investment in key infrastructure is necessitated e.g. Water Williams, B., Foley, W., Cudden, J. & Shahumyan, H.
    41. 41. The Metropolitan Revolution The book argues that metro areas — or, cities and suburbs together — are powerful economic engines with considerable political influence, and that local leaders are more likely to take on the nation's big challenges than politicians in Washington. “The country’s 388 metropolitan areas are home to 84% of its population and generate 91% of national GDP” " ... Cities and metropolitan areas are really networks of leaders and institutions. They're very powerful on their own, but when they come together and they collaborate to compete, they can do grand things together.“ Video links: http://metrorevolution.org/videos/ Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    42. 42. Role of government.... • The point of the metropolitan revolution is not that these so-called higher levels of government do not matter. Rather, the point is that they must act in service of their metropolitan engines. • Every metropolitan leader – and every national leader – must ask how national governments, local governments and other actors should interact to coproduce the economy. Waves of economic change have put cities and metros at the forefront. • Will national governments ignore these changes, or will they recognise that supporting metropolitan areas is the new imperative? • This is very relevant to Ireland…..so how does we respond to this to ensure that we maximise Dublin’s potential....(Activating Dublin model?) Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    43. 43. Extra Material • Selection of useful international indicators
    44. 44. Some Recent Coverage and indicators..... “Emerging Tech: Dublin one of 9 International Startup Hubs to Watch” “New Silicon Valley on the emerald isle” “Ireland best country to invest in Western Europe. Dublin third best metro” “Dublin is the Great Bike Hope among emerging bicycle cities... Dublin is an inspiration and a city to watch” Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    45. 45. Dublin ranked overall the fourth most prosperous city in the 2012/13 UN prosperity index Report: http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationI D=3387 News Article: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/dublin-rankedfourth-most-prosperous-city-in-un-index-1.1313782
    46. 46. International examples of cities • Germany’s top four metropolitan economies – Cologne-Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Stuttgart – contain just over a quarter of the country’s population but generate more than 30% of national GDP. • Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and Seville represent 35% of Spain’s population, but nearly 40% of its GDP. • The top 10 metro economies in the UK house just over the half its population, but produce nearly two-thirds of the country’s output, with more than one-third coming from Greater London alone. Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    47. 47. Quality and Cost of Living Quality of Living • Dublin 35th city in the world for quality of living (Mercer, 2012) • Dublin 16th top city in the world for personal safety (Mercer, 2011) • Top 5 global cities are: Vienna, Zurich, Auckland, Munich, Düsseldorf Costs of Living • Dublin is now outside of the top global 50 cities for costs of living (58th) from 42nd in 2010. Now 74th in 2013. • 6 years ago Dublin was 10th • Top 5 global cities are Luanda (Angola), Tokoyo, N’djamena (Chad), Moscow, Geneva Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    48. 48. The biggest web summit outside of the US Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    49. 49. • Dublin 13th friendliest place in world (Cork 20th and Kilkenny 9th , Conde Nast traveler survey, 2013 “Ireland’s most famous metropolis is also among its kindliest. This “big, bustling city with great museums” is “full of history and likeable people.” “The friendliest natives I have ever encountered,” gushed one visitor, “the gift of Irish gab lives!” Another Dublin enthusiast noted that every local they came across had “a smile in their voice and a joke at the ready.” With “so much to see and do” and, of course, “wonderful pubs,” “inviting” Dublin “should be on everyone’s bucket list.” http://www.cntraveler.com/daily-traveler/2013/07/worldtravel-dublin-auckland-cork-friendly-unfriendlycities_slideshow_item7_8 Jamie Cudden – Activating Dublin Twitter: @jcudden
    50. 50. Tourism and Cities – Nov 2013 Tourism Intelligence International launches its brand new study entitled, "Cities on the Rise -Competitive Strategies for City Tourism City tourism is growing faster and is more resilient than global tourism. It also explains that city tourism drives the development of the destination's tourism sector as a whole and is a vital force for economic growth http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pN9IX7titoY
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