Base De Clientes Valiosa Futuro Crescimento
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Este material aborda o potencial cliente do futuro, as gerações Boomers, X e Y

Este material aborda o potencial cliente do futuro, as gerações Boomers, X e Y

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  • BUILDING A SMARTER PLANET: HEALTHCARE Welcome and thank you for joining us today to discuss the future of healthcare in the context of the dynamic and increasingly demanding world around us. This new reality was discussed by Sam Palmisano in his recent speech introducing characteristics of a Smarter Planet and their role in enabling industry systems to become “smarter”: “ The world is becoming not just smaller and flatter, but also smarter. What this all means is that for the first time in history almost anything can become digitally aware and interconnected. We will all begin to transform our systems, operations, enterprises and personal lives to take advantage of a smart planet isn’t just because we can. It’s because we must.” Current and emerging capabilities can enable healthcare organizations to “think and act in new ways” - from electronic medical records and sensors to process integration to deep, complex analyses within single organizations and across health systems. Before we move ahead, I want to point out that our discussion today will reference IBM’s Healthcare 2015 thought leadership series which provides foundational perspectives on the future of healthcare, health insurers and care delivery. Today we will share our point of view for “smarter healthcare” and invite you to explore opportunities for smarter healthcare with us. Included is a framework to help care delivery organizations and insurers to consider and evaluate the actions they can take now to prepare for the future. This is important because of the need for collaborative solutions to the systemic problems facing most healthcare systems.
  • This slide can also be used at the beginning of the GTO – in this case use the following story-line: In this Global Technology Outlook presentation, I hope to demonstrate one example of how IBM Research stays relevant to IBM -- The GTO is our view of where technology will be heading in the future... It's an industry view--- not just an IBM view... And it's a set of predictions! Since when has IBM been in the business of doing technology projection..? (Show quote by Watson).. But, we've also gotten help from other very successful IT business experts on high risk predictions... (show the other three quotes ) While in retrospect these quotes are pretty funny, it's useful to reflect on these technology predictions... All four of these experts have been very very successful in technology! But clearly some of their predictions were proven wrong! My take home message is that it's hard to make these predictions-- to have the insight which will prevail over many years.... That's why you need to evaluate risky predictions often--- revise predictions frequently based on new data, new facts and new markets. At IBM, we do this GTO process almost continuously and read out key messages every year since technology/ and the environment changes so rapidly. It's an effort that is lead by IBM Research but that involves technology experts from across the company. A Team IBM effort. I won't give you a detailed, exhaustive technical lecture on the future of IT technology-- but I hope from the concepts that I'm about to describe that you will take home a feeling/sense and some insights into where technology is heading. Quote Information: "There is no business in the world which can hope to move forward if it does not keep abreast of the time, look into the future and study the probable demands of the future." Thomas J Watson, Sr – 1932 Source: http://portal.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?id=319384&type=html "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future," said the distinguished scientist who lobbied for peaceful atomic policies and won the first U.S. Atoms for Peace award in 1957. "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future" attributed to: •Niels Bohr (Barlow 1997) [2290] •Mark Twain (Flake 2000) [1580] •Yogi Berra (Caswell 2000) [411] [n] =web pages from Google from http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/Ellner/ESA01.pdf also said to be a Chinese proverb Other Quotes: "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." --Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." --Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." --The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957 "But what ... is it good for?" --Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip. "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." --Ken Olsen, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,1977 "640K ought to be enough for anybody." --Bill Gates, 1981 "The commercial market for computers will never exceed a half-dozen in the US. -- Howard Aiken, 1945 "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." --Western Union internal memo, 1876. "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" --David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s. "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" --H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. Trademarks C-bus is a trademark of Corollary, Inc. in the United States, other countries, or both. Java and all Java-based trademarks are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. in the United States, other countries, or both. Solaris is a trademark of Sun Microsystems, Inc. in the United States, other countries, or both. Microsoft, Windows, Windows NT, BizTalk, and the Windows logo are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. PC Direct is a trademark of Ziff Communications Company in the United States, other countries, or both and is used by IBM Corporation under license. ActionMedia, LANDesk, MMX, Pentium and ProShare are trademarks of Intel Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. (For a complete list of Intel trademarks see) http://www.intel.com/sites/corporate/trademarx.htm UNIX is a registered trademark of The Open Group in the United States and other countries. SET and the SET Logo are trademarks owned by SET Secure Electronic Transaction LLC. (For further information see) http://www.setco.org/aboutmark.html HP-UX is a registered trademark of Hewlett Packard Company. Linux is a registered trademark of William R. Della Croce, Jr. (last listed previous owner was Linus Torvalds) Intel, Pentium, Pentium Pro, Pentium II, Pentium III are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the US and other countries. AIX, AS/400, Blue Gene, BlueDrekar, DB2, Deep Blue, Deskstar, Discoverylink, eLiza, Gigaprocessor, IBM, Microdrive, OS/390, Scrollpoint, ServeRAID, Thinkpad, TransNote, Travelstar, Ultrastar, Websphere, Workpad, are all trademarks and registered trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States and/or other countries.
  • What all of this means is that the digital and physical infrastructures of the world are converging. Computational power is being put into things we wouldn't recognize as computers. Indeed, almost anything—any person, any object, any process or any service, for any organization, large or small—can become digitally aware and networked. With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost: What wouldn't you put smart technology into? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight? A smarter planet is possible because - Our world is becoming instrumented Our world is becoming interconnected . Virtually all things, processes, and ways of working are becoming intelligent . Let me explain each to you in a bit more detail… (NEXT SLIDE)
  • The United States is an urbanized nation, with 80.8% of its population of 305,186,613 [1] residing in cities and suburbs as of mid-year 2005. [2] The mean population center of the United States has consistently shifted westward and southward, with California and Texas currently the most populous states. U.S. population growth is among the highest in developed countries, although its annual rate of 0.88% is below the world average annual rate of 1.16%. [3] The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2008 is 2.1, which is roughly the replacement level for industrialized countries. However, the U.S. Census bureau states that the population is projected to reach 439 million in 2050, [4] which is a 44% increase from 2008 compared to the UN projection of a world population increase of 37% for the same period. Children (people under age 18) made up a quarter of the U.S. population (24.6%), and people over age 65 one-eighth (12.7%) in 2006. [5]
  • A report in August 2008 [26] from the U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will no longer make up the majority of the population. This is a revision of earlier projections that this would occur in 2050. Today, non-Hispanic whites make up about 68% of the population. This is expected to fall to 46% in 2050. The report foresees the Hispanic population rising from 15% today to 30% by 2050. Today, African Americans make up 12% of the population, in 2050 they are projected to comprise 15%. Asian Americans make up 5% of the population and are expected to make up 9% in 2050. The U.S. has nearly 305 million people today, and is projected to reach 400 million by 2039 and 439 million in 2050. [27] [28] A report from the Pew Research Center in 2008 projects that by 2050, non-Hispanic whites will make up 47% of the population, down from 67% projected in 2005. [29] Non-Hispanic whites made up 85% of the population in 1960. [30] It foresees the Hispanic population rising from 14% in 2005 to 29% by 2050. [31] The proportion of Asian Americans would almost double by 2050. Overall, the population of the U.S. was due to rise from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million, with 82% of the increase due to immigrants . [32] Of the nation's children in 2050, 62% are expected to have a minority ethnicity, up from 44% today. 39% are projected to be Hispanic (up from 22% in 2008), and 38% are to be single-race, non-Hispanic white (down from 56% in 2008). [33] 2008 Non-Hispanic whites 68% Hispanic 15 % African Americans 12%15%Asian American 2050 Non-Hispanic whites68% 46%Hispanic15 %30%African Americans12%15%Asian American
  • "The toxic terabyte: How data-dumping threatens business efficiency." It is projected that just four years from now, the world’s information base will be doubling in size every 11 hours. So rapid is the growth in the global stock of digital data that the very vocabulary used to indicate quantities has had to expand to keep pace. A decade or two ago, professional computer users and managers worked in kilobytes and megabytes. Now school children have access to laptops with tens of gigabytes of storage, and network managers have to think in terms of the terabyte (1,000 gigabytes) and the petabyte (1,000 terabytes). Beyond those lie the exabyte, zettabyte and yottabyte, each a thousand times bigger than the last.     ?http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/index.php?p=4497 Also consider: Born Digital ’s chapter on information overload identifies various issues that arise from the Internet. According to Palfrey and Gasser, “ the amount of digital content that was created, stored and replicated last year is hard to fathom. The answer is 1,288 x 1018 bits. That’s 161 billion gigabytes. In lay terms, that’s three million times the information in all books ever written, or twelve stacks of books reaching from the Earth to the Sun, or six tons of books for every person. It would require two billion of the highest capacity iPods to store all that information. Even more impressive than these numbers is the growth rate of information. In 2003, researchers have estimated the world’s information production to be around five billion gigabytes. Current reports predict that there will be 988 billion gigabytes of information in 2010. ”
  • A report in August 2008[26] from the U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will no longer make up the majority of the population. This is a revision of earlier projections that this would occur in 2050. Today, non-Hispanic whites make up about 68% of the population. This is expected to fall to 46% in 2050. The report foresees the Hispanic population rising from 15% today to 30% by 2050. Today, African Americans make up 12% of the population, in 2050 they are projected to comprise 15%. Asian Americans make up 5% of the population and are expected to make up 9% in 2050. The U.S. has nearly 305 million people today, and is projected to reach 400 million by 2039 and 439 million in 2050.[27][28] A report from the Pew Research Center in 2008 projects that by 2050, non-Hispanic whites will make up 47% of the population, down from 67% projected in 2005.[29] Non-Hispanic whites made up 85% of the population in 1960.[30] It foresees the Hispanic population rising from 14% in 2005 to 29% by 2050.[31] The proportion of Asian Americans would almost double by 2050. Overall, the population of the U.S. was due to rise from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million, with 82% of the increase due to immigrants.[32] Of the nation's children in 2050, 62% are expected to have a minority ethnicity, up from 44% today. 39% are projected to be Hispanic (up from 22% in 2008), and 38% are to be single-race, non-Hispanic white (down from 56% in 2008).[33] 2008 Non-Hispanic whites68% Hispanic15 % African Americans12%15%Asian American 2050 Non-Hispanic whites68% 46%Hispanic15 %30%African Americans12%15%Asian American
  • The number of people with cell phones… The number of people participating in social networking activities The number of people going online each year
  • I said I’m going to cover how virtual worlds can be used to play, work and learn.
  • http://flickr.com/photos/toniblay/52445415/ It’s not a game, but… Let’s look at some games…
  • Sony PlayStation Home A virtual world in which to meet people with whom you’ll play games?
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/therift/130671212/ World of Warcraft
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/extranoise/158135547/
  • How do you connect with the people you need to know?
  • and of course, Second Life. Second Life is heavy on the collaboration, not so hot on the rendering. Here you see some meetings. Everything from ad-hoc discussions to formal meetings with an agenda and guest speakers.
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/shonk/418180402/
  • 11/09/09 ITS GSR Proposed Layout 4Q

Base De Clientes Valiosa Futuro Crescimento Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Que base de Clientes será o pilar mais valioso para o crescimento futuro Jose Carlos Duarte Gonçalves – Diretor de Tecnologia – IBM Brasil 30/10/2009
  • 2. Previsões Qual será a base de clientes no futuro?
  • 3. Previsões “ Previsões são difíceis, especialmente sobre o futuro” Niels Bohr, 1957 Atenção: Lembre-se – apenas uma perspectiva e não uma garantia ! “ Não há nenhum negócio no mundo que irá progredir se não acompanhar as evoluções, olhar para o futuro e analisar as novas demandas” Thomas J Watson, Sr – 1932 “ Tudo que poderia ser inventado já foi inventado. ” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899 “ Não existe nenhum motivo para que alguém queira ter um computador em casa. ” Ken Olsen, founder of DEC1977 “ 640K de memória é suficiente para qualquer necessidade . ” Bill Gates, 1981
  • 4. As coisas mudaram ! Não existe caminho de volta !
  • 5. O futuro não é o que costumava ser?
  • 6. Our world is becoming INSTRUMENTALIZADO Our world is becoming INTERCONECTADO Virtually all things, processes and ways of working are becoming INTELIGENTE Planeta Mais Inteligente
  • 7. Para chegar a 50 milhões de usuários: Telefone 74 anos PC 16 anos Celular 5 anos Internet 4 anos Skype 2 anos Há 5 anos existia o termo blog? Hoje cresce a um ritmo de 1 blog por segundo! Adoção de tecnologias Autom óvel Internet 0 25 50 100 125 150 75 Anos 0 50 100 Telefone Eletrici dade Radio Televis ão VCR PC Cel u lar % Penetra ção
  • 8. Em 2007, pela primeira vez na história, a maioria da população do mundo, 3,3 bilhões de pessoas viviam nas cidades. Em 2050, A população nas cidades deve atingir 70% da população total da Terra, ou 6,4 bilhões de pessoas. Viveremos cada vez mais em cidades
  • 9. Fonte: The Gary Hilbert Letter http:// www.thegaryhalbertletter.com/newsletters/population.htm
    • Existem mais pessoas vivas hoje que todos os seres humanos que já viveram desde o início da civilização.
    Evolução da população mundial Fonte: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations http:// esa.un.org/unpp
    • 99% de todos os cientistas que já viveram estão vivos agora.
    • Mais informação está contida em uma edição diária do New York Times… que estava disponível em todo o século 17.
  • 10.
    • Em 2050 seremos 259.8 Milhões habitantes
    • Expectativa de vida: 81,3 anos, mesma do Japão atualmente
    • Em 2050 18% da população terá de 0 a 14 anos, outros 18% acima de 65 anos
    • Em 2062 a população para de aumentar
    Evolução da população no Brasil Dados: IBGE
  • 11. A Natureza do mundo está mudando Estamos rápidamente nos tornando um planeta de cidades Pessoas e comunidades em mudança Novas necessidades, serviços e modelos de negócios
  • 12. A etnia do mundo está mudando, dando origem a novos métodos de comunicação e mensagens, diferentes expectativas, experiências desejadas e fontes de informações
  • 13. O número de vozes, de canais, a quantidade de dados e as diferentes mensagens estão mudando. Isso significa mais conteúdo, mais lugares e audiências menores. Estamos mudando de broadcast para narrow cast impulsionado pela preferência do cliente
  • 14. Os consumidores vão procurar filtrar a quantidade de dados que recebem, entretanto, as empresas precisam determinar como utilizar toda a informação que ainda não tenham utilizado. Term coined by Clay Shirky to describe the difference in how much information we are dealing with. http://www.shirky.com Wired Magazine, July 2008, The Petabyte Age
    • Cerca de 2 bilhões de pessoas na web em 2011, e 4 bilhões de assinantes de telefonia móvel Um trilhão de objetos conectados carros, eletrodomésticos, câmeras, estradas de comunicação que constituem a Internet das coisas. Isto inclui 33 milhões de etiquetas RFID em 2010 Em 2010, haverá 1 bilhão de transistores por pessoa, mais do que os grãos de arroz produzido Estruturas tradicionais de dados irão classificar-se nestes formatos Novos modelos são necessários para o consumidor, e para as máquinas
  • 15. Além das tendências demográficas, mudanças das gerações tem maior influência do que nunca O estilo de fncionamento da geração Net é: Connectada Visual Multi-tarefa Interativa Desestruturada Teaming Dinâmica Contextual Real-time Coletiva “ Geração Net” pensa: “ Geração X” pensa: “ Os Boomers” pensam:
    • Tecnologia é difícil e demorado
    • Reduz o valor pessoal de socializar o conhecimento e as relações privadas
    • Reduz a percepção
    • Adiciona critérios novos e desconhecidos para o sucesso
    • Indesejável sobrecarga e valor limitado
    • Dá à gestão ou outras entidades mais controle e visibilidade
    • Diminui privacidade
    • Pode ser difícil de implementar, podem não funcionar corretamente
    • Restrições e falta de recursos robustos diminuem a criatividade e a colaboração
    • Deve ser tão vívido e sensível quanto possível
    • Deve ser o mais aberto e acessível possível
    E eles pensam sobre a tecnologia de uma forma muito diferente
  • 16. O nativo digital e o imigrante digital
    • O nativo digital é a pessoa que cresceu com a tecnologia digital tais como computadores , a internet, celulares e MP3
    Um imigrante digital é alguém que nasceu antes destas tecnologias. A internet foi criada por um grupo de imigrantes digitais. Imigrantes digitais também não estão necessariamente vinculados a demografia e limites geográficos Embora nenhum paradigma alinha perfeitamente o mundo, é seguro dizer que os nativos digitais são amplamente “Geração Net” e eles são uma força que vai remodelar o mercado Term coined by Marc Prensky, www.MarcPrensky.com
  • 17. Geração Net são as pessoas para as quais estamos criando produtos, sua influência e poder aquisitivo está aumentando
    • Nativos digitais são muito ligados digitalmente
    • Maior criação de conteúdo
    • Maior população que realiza compras cruzadas
    • Reduzir a divisão digital entre os grupos étnicos e faixas de população de crescimento mais rápido
    • Definir a agenda de tecnologia
    • Confia na opinião uns dos outros mais do que ninguém – e especialmente em publicidade
    • Força a mídia alterar os seus comportamentos e preferências - marketing, mensagens e conteúdos
  • 18. Todo mundo está conectado - é geralmente aceito que a geração Net vive em um universo comum (peer to peer). Contam com o feedback e as interações com os outros mais do que qualquer outra geração. Isto dá origem a dois conceitos - de influência e competência. Influência é o número de pessoas que chega a uma rede. E competência é o domínio de um tema.
  • 19.  
  • 20. play http://flickr.com/photos/toniblay/52445415/ play
  • 21. Home Home
  • 22. http:// www.flickr.com/photos/therift/130671212 / World of Warcraft World of Warcraft
  • 23. work work http://www.flickr.com/photos/ssanyal/563492429/
  • 24. Colaboração, Network, Relacionamento
  • 25.  
  • 26. learn http://www.flickr.com/photos/shonk/418180402/ learn
  • 27. OLIVE OLIVE
  • 28. Quais ferramentas eles utilizam?
  • 29. Movimento, tato, força, peso, gesto, expressões, interação
  • 30. Visão, Audição, Tato
  • 31. Líderes do Futuro
  • 32. Utilizar potencial através de inovação, para que todos possam alcançar o seu potencial, independentemente da idade ou habilidade. Colaboração, Network, relacionamento
  • 33. O que devemos fazer para vencer estes desafios?
    • Conheça os consumidores e clientes, suas características originais e atributos - nativos digitais e imigrantes.
    • Esteja atento às mudanças evolução demográfica e as suas necessidades específicas, reveja suas mensagens, canais locais, ferramentas de encontro on-line, comunidades
    • Entenda as conexões - especialistas e influenciadores
    • Defina a experiência do cliente, entenda comportamentos
    • Trabalhe com os canais e agentes que interagem com estes grupos
    • Considere novos modelos de relacionamento, no seu negócio, diretamente ou através de canais alternativos
    • Obtenha dados de seu mercado, desenvolva tarefas de análise. Se você não puder obter os dados, crie oportunidades em um novo canal on-line que permitem que você coletá-lo
    • Incentive os clientes a falar com você - ratings, rankings, pesquisas, vídeos, blogs
    • Busque Ativamente a opinião de seus clientes onde quer que apareça
    • Faça testes, tire conclusões, teste novamente
  • 34.
    • Amanhã:
    • Pense a respeito da próxima tendência de tecnologia
    • Próxima semana:
    • - Reveja como novas tendências irão Impactar seu negócio
    • Futuro Próximo:
    • - Explore o que será seu trabalho ou negócio daqui a 10 anos
  • 35. Muito Obrigado José Carlos Duarte Gonçalves IBM Brasil - Diretor de Tecnologia [email_address] 11-21325478
  • 36. Um planeta mais inteligente se faz com soluções inteligentes
  • 37. Tendências
  • 38. This provides core attributes of the Generations - Good, Bad and Ugly - according to the book Generation Blend author, Rob Salkowitz
    • Values:
    • Optimism
    • Team
    • Personal gratification
    • Youth
    • Work Involvement
    • Style
    • Assets:
    • Service Oriented
    • Driven
    • Committed
    • Good at relationships
    • Want to please
    • Team Players
    • Liabilities:
    • Not naturally budget minded
    • Reluctant to go against peers
    • Uncomfortable with conflict
    • Process ahead of results
    • Judgmental
    • Self centered
    Boomers
    • Values:
    • Diversity
    • Thinking Globally
    • Balance
    • Technoliteracy
    • Fun
    • Informality
    • Self Reliance
    • Pragmatism
    • Assets:
    • Adaptable
    • Technoliterate
    • Independent
    • Un-intimidated by authority
    • Creative
    • Liabilities:
    • Impatient
    • Poor people skills
    • Inexperienced
    • Cynical
    Gen X
    • Values:
    • Optimism
    • Civic Duty
    • Confidence
    • Achievement
    • Sociability
    • Morality
    • Street Smarts
    • Diversity
    • Assets:
    • Collective action
    • Optimism
    • Tenacity
    • Heroic Spirit
    • Multi-tasking
    • Technological savvy
    • Liabilities:
    • Need for supervision and structure
    • Inexperienced, especially at handling difficult people issues
    Gen We
    • Technology View:
    • The de facto way to think work and play
    • Primary instrument for participating in networks
    • The inevitable next cool thing
    • Technology View:
    • Instrument for improving personal productivity
    • Transactional source of info Something new to learn
    • Indicator of status
    • Business approach to solving problems
    • Technology View
    • An instrument for saving time and effort
    • An interactive way to connect to people & info
    • Something new to figure out and the limitations of
    • Gadget to enhance lifestyle or experience
  • 39. The dimensions of digital natives Source: Digital Native Wiki