Nineteenth Century Europe
The Great Powers & the Balance of Power
1871-1890
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

“Long road…”or “...short slip?”
… much of the traditional historiography on the origins of the
war has, quite simply, over-determined the event. Far from a
‘long road to catastrophe’, there was but a short slip. Such a
conclusion does not tend to support those who still think of
the war as an inevitable consequence of deep-seated great-
power rivalries -- a predestined cataclysm. But it certainly
accords with the notion that the outbreak of war was an
avoidable error.
Niall Ferguson, The War of the World, p. 91.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

1914-1918; Unprecedented Casualties
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

“Hang the Kaiser!”
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Versailles Treaty/Diktat
Article 231. The Allied and Associated Governments
affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of
Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and
damage to which the Allied and Associated
Governments and their nationals have been subjected
as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by
the aggression of Germany and her allies.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Russo-Turkish War, 1877-1878
Liberated
Bulgaria Plevna
Memorial
Svobodna Bulgariya
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bulgaria
Bosnia &
Herzegovina “the sick
man”
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Origins of the Russo-Turk War
the Tsar Liberator Alexander had to make the humiliating Peace of Paris,
1856, just after coming to the throne
Russia didn’t want to give up the role of protecting brother slavs the way
they had been forced to give up “protector of Christians in the Holy Land”
August, 1875, BOS•ni•a & Her•ze•GO•vi•na began an insurrection
against Turkish rule
To everyone’s surprise, Osman Pasha put down the revolt handily but with
“Balkan atrocities”
Russia massed forces and invaded through Romania
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Shipka Pass
CONSTANTINOPLE
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

the siege of Plevna, July-December, 1877
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

tensions produce two notable slogans
We don’t want to fight
But, by jingo, if we do
We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men
We’ve got the money too!
British music hall chorus, 1878
origin of the term “jingoism”
“[the Balkans] are not worth the bones
of a Pomeranian grenadier.”
Bismarck
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Congress of Berlin, 1878 by Anton von Werner
In the left foreground, Count Karolyi (Austria-Hungary), Prince Gorchakov, seated (Russia), and the
Earl of Beaconsfield (Disraeli). In the center foreground, Count Andrassy (A-H), Bismarck, and Count
Shuvalov (Russia). In the right rear, with the bald head, Lord Salisbury, (Great Britain)
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bismarck offers to be “an honest broker”
Russia accepts:
exhausted by the unexpected rigors of the Turkish war
worried by the thought of war with Britain and Austria-Hungary
most distinguished diplomatic gathering between 1815 & 1919
Balkan peoples had unrealistic expectations--> disappointment
Serbs expected Bosnia & Herzegovina, instead A-H gets them
Romania has to surrender Bessarabia to Russia
Bulgaria greatly reduced in size
Greece furious that Britain gains Cyprus & Turkey keeps Crete & Epirus
seeds sown for future Balkan revisionism & wars
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Changes made by the Congress
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Russia and Turkey the most aggrieved
Turkey lost half its European territory and population
Russia’s Pan-Slavs had little to show for their country’s heavy expenditures
in men and money
Bulgaria, the proposed springboard for future expansion, “a mere shadow of its
former self”
Britain, without the loss of a man, gained Cyprus and strengthened its position
over the Straits Question
Austria gained Bosnia and France was given a free hand in Tunis
Russia, mortified, blamed Bismarck
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Alliance Systems
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

the fateful Dual Alliance, 1879
Bismarck, aware of Russian resentment, feared its rapprochement with
republican France
he makes the treaty which will bind Germany to Austria-Hungary:
mutual assistance if either is attacked by Russia
benevolent neutrality if either is attacked by another party
previous treaties had been concluded only during or on the eve of wars, or
for specific purposes and restricted duration
this was “the first of the secret treaties whose contents were never fully
known but always suspected”
this encouraged other powers to do likewise in self defense
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Feinde ringsum-ringed by enemies
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

“one of three on the European chessboard”
In 1881, Bismarck renewed the Dreikaiserbund
“One must not lose sight of the importance of being one of
three on the European chess-board. That is the invariable
objective of all cabinets and of mine above all others.
Nobody wishes to be in a minority. All politics reduce
themselves to this formula: to try to be one of three, so long
as the world is governed by an unstable equilibrium of five
Great Powers”
Bismarck
The Five?
Br, Fr, Ger, Aus.-Hun.,Rus
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bismarck adds Italy, 1882
the alliance of 1881 effectively
isolated France. She might
have reached out to Italy,
but…
chose to seize Tunis instead.
Italy then approached
Bismarck, who referred them
to Austria
although Italy wanted to
take the Trentino and
Trieste from Austria, she
still felt the French threat
required coming to terms
with the ancient enemy
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Italia irredenta (unredeemed Italy)
Irredentism grew out of the
Risorgimento (the
unification movement)
1820s-1866
as Italy tried to establish a
constitutional monarchy,
these foreign policy claims
were debated in the
Assembly
the claims were partially
realized in 1919
Mussolini would push even
further
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

terms of the Triple Alliance, 1882
Italy was assured of German and Austrian aid if attacked by France
Italy was obligated to aid Germany if she were attacked by France
she was also obliged to go to war if either Germany or Austria were
attacked by two or more powers
French resentment eventually took the form of a tariff war that had ruinous
effects in Italy
Bismarck had improved Germany’s security immeasurably
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Bulgarian Crisis, 1886-87
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Bulgarian Crisis
after the Treaty of Berlin (1878) created
Bulgaria as an autonomous state under the
Ottomans, Alexander became its ruler
although nephew to the tsar, he took a
Bulgarian nationalist stance
the issue was an Austrian railway project,
the Orient Express line
Russia felt the Bulgarians were ungrateful
for Russia’s role in their creation
two events in 1885 sparked the crisis:
the annexation of Eastern Rumelia
a successful war with with Serbia
Prince Alexander v. Battenberg
(1857-1879-1886-1893)
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Russia’s response
fearing total loss of control over Bulgaria, Russia fomented a conspiracy in
the Bulgarian army
in August, 1886, Alexander was deposed and exiled
the other Great Powers were alarmed at Russia’s attempt to make Bulgaria
a complete satellite and choose her next ruler
the Bulgarian Assembly resisted and ultimately chose an even more pro-
Austrian ruler, Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg
the Three Emperors’ League of 1881 was almost terminated
Russia seemed ready to use force on Bulgaria and Austria prepared military
countermeasures
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bismarck’s Dilemma
he knew if it came to war between
his two allies he must choose
Austria
but he feared hinting this to
Russia because the Pan-Slavs
were already hinting at a French
alliance
in the fall of 1886 this was
especially threatening because of
the Boulanger crisis
the French general headed a
nationalist movement which
advocated taking back the lost
General Georges Ernest Boulanger
(1837-1891) provinces
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Bismarck’s solution
fearing a two-front war, he felt he had to
appear to support the tsar’s Bulgarian
ambitions
but he needed to secretly see they were not
realized
all his skill and guile was necessary
to scare France he engineered an army
increase from 427,000 to 468,000
the renewal of the Triple Alliance, February,
1887 also sobered France
next he had to undo Russia’s Balkan plans
in his study, 1886
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The First Mediterranean Agreement, 12 February 1887
an Italian admission during the alliance talks that Italy had Balkan
ambitions of her own, led Bismarck to suggest they seek support in Vienna
and London
in March, 1887 this produced the first Mediterranean Agreement:
Italy, Austria-Hungary (4 March) & Great Britain promised mutual support
in case of disagreement with a fourth power (France or Russia)
conservative Br PM Lord Salisbury wanted support against France for
Britain’s moves in Egypt
he also sought to “put a shot across Russia’s bows” in the Balkans
so Bismarck was able to deter Russia without “leaving fingerprints”
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Reinsurance Treaty; June, 1887
pledged Germany and Russia to benevolent neutrality in the event the
other was at war
exceptions, conflicts arising from:
a Russian attack on Austria
a German attack on France
so there was no conflict with the Dual Alliance, a defensive alliance
but secret clauses made it less morally defensible:
Germany promised to support Russian interests in Bulgaria and the Straits
before the year was out, Bismarck was encouraging a second Mediterranean
Agreement (December, 1887)
therein Britain, Italy & Austria guaranteed the status quo in
the Near East, Bulgaria, Asia Minor and the Straits
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

economic and military factors in the Bulgarian crisis
economic motives and moves:
Austrian ambitions and Russian fears were the background to Alexander’s policies
which spurred the conflict
this was the first occasion where railroad plans would “stir the pot” in Balkan and
Near Eastern diplomacy
Bismarck ordered the Reichsbank to refuse to accept Russian securities as collateral in
1887 which weakened Russia financially and made her less willing to be aggressive in
the Balkans
military meddling:
at the height of the crisis in 1887, the German military attache in Vienna encouraged
Franz Josef to believe that Germany would support an Austrian war against Russia
Bismarck quickly squelched this false signal, but the German military, with the
support of the General Staff, continued to play such a dangerous role in later crises
Wednesday, November 11, 2009

1888
Dreikaiser Jahr
By the beginning of that year the troublesome Bulgarian
crisis had finally been liquidated, and international
tension had been relaxed. Bismarck could take
satisfaction in the fact that his network of alliances... had
been strengthened by Great Britain’s association with the
junior members of the Triple Alliance. There was no
immediate prospect of new troubles in Europe. The
warmongers in France and the Pan-Slavs in Russia were
in eclipse, and the attention of all powers was becoming
increasingly absorbed in...areas far from the European
center.
Craig, p. 261
Wednesday, November 11, 2009