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¿por qué no ahora?

thoughts on the digital divide

                  Gerry Greeve
                 Vice President,
 Intel...
Are we at an inflection point to bringing
           the benefits of Broadband, Internet,
           and Compute technolog...
“ICT” recognized as key to recovery
               China a ppro ve s 3 G lic e ns e - $ 4 1 B
               Inve s tme nt...
Medium and Low Economies are falling further behind



                                                        154 countri...
Is higher BB costs the reason??
 Fix BB Internet cost as percentage of
 GNI per capita                                  De...
What’s needed to cross the DD??

•   Affordable clients that deliver adequate capability
•   Training and aids to learn ho...
Netbook & ULV Notebook Will Drive BB Demand




                                    < $450 >

        Netbook             ...
Computer Knowledge and Use is Viral




80% of learning is
   -Doing (40%)
  -Friends (40%)




 8/08: 100M “friends” – 4/...
New Usage Models
In Developing Economies
     Are Succeeding

Allowing Usage Spirals To
         Develop




             ...
PRC: 800K clinics/hospitals; 3.2M doctors
                                target – 5 “RCA”pc’s per clinic
                ...
www.skoool.com




30 countries, 10 languages, 4million+ visitors/yr, WSIS, BETT awards,
     250 math & science MM module...
India
    CSC’s
•   Shared Access around for 16 years.
         • Many Failures- Some Success
         • #1 issue is self-...
SME – Export
  Solution
  Package
        •       First joint business bundle:
            •     Affordable Intel HP Lapto...
PRC “Thousand Villages”
Farmer Information and PC Program
        with China Telecom
      Ministry of Commerce




      ...
3G Growth Ignite new PC/NB users




                                                   CHINA




                        ...
3G Is Not A Complete Solution
  “The reality of 3G networks being
              overloaded
 With PC & Smartphone data is w...
2015 – Average MM Subscriber uses 14GBytes+ per month




           =    30 MB / Mo.




           =


                 ...
Country                 Telco(s)            Launched   Probable
                                   1   Korea              ...
• Governments Are “Stepping-up”
With Investment and Support

…Telecommunications Industry is too




                     ...
Policy Impact on Local Economy

• Subsidies for PC’s and BB
  – PRC, Spain, Vietnam, Singapore, India
• VAT reductions: nu...
Leading uses of USF for Broadband
Co untry     De s c riptio n
Turkey       Subsidizing BB to 18000 rural schools; 4500 Pu...
We are at an inflection point which can
      ALLOW US TO CROSS THE DIGITAL DIVIDE:
•   Our Small and Medium Businesses
• ...
What might be the
                        Role of Government??

• Enable the ICT indus try w national plans, policy, & ope...
STATE OUR VISION, OBJECTIVE, AND WILL
… MUST SET PUBLIC & MEASUREABLE GOALS

•   K-12 schools - 90% of schools with BB,
  ...
LEAD FROM THE FRONT!
     Thank You




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3 Thoughts On The Digital Divide

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Presentación realizada por Gerry Greeve en la XII cumbre de operadores y reguladores REGULATEL / AHCIET

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Transcript of "3 Thoughts On The Digital Divide"

  1. 1. ¿por qué no ahora? thoughts on the digital divide Gerry Greeve Vice President, Intel Corporation. Sales and Marketing Group Director, Intel World Ahead ™ 1
  2. 2. Are we at an inflection point to bringing the benefits of Broadband, Internet, and Compute technology to: • Our Small and Medium Businesses • Our Schools and Universities • Our Health Care Hospitals, Clinics, & Clinicians • Our Export Industries • Our Rural/Agrarian Communities • Our Governments’ Services to Citizens • …. And our FAMILIES ??? ¿por qué no ahora? 2
  3. 3. “ICT” recognized as key to recovery China a ppro ve s 3 G lic e ns e - $ 4 1 B Inve s tme nt Broadband Expansion Is Popular in Stimulus Plans Gov’t broadband can counter crisis threat Philippine Daily Inquirer UN Sec Ban Ki-moon - outlined a vision to drive ICT to help the global economic recovery. “ICT are increasingly critical for global Australian Prime Minister development and human well-being. We “broadband infrastructure will be the platform upon which the economy must not allow today's economic downturn operates in the 21st century” to slow progress in providing widespread access to these essential tools." South Korea Broadband Stimulus Plan Promises 1 Gb/s By 2012…..Telecom Web ITIF (Information Technology & Information Foundation study The Digital Road to Recovery, Dr. Robert Atkinson, et al 3
  4. 4. Medium and Low Economies are falling further behind 154 countries 33 33 6 LATAM 44 14 LATAM 44 “…the global digital divide is as prevalent as before” 4
  5. 5. Is higher BB costs the reason?? Fix BB Internet cost as percentage of GNI per capita Developing countries: Position in the LAR Country % of GNI per Lower fix phone cost world capita Equal cellular costs to MM 23 T&T 1.1% 10x higher fix BB internet costs 45 Panama 3.3% 50 CR 3.7% 54 Uruguay 4.6% Developed countries: cost of Broadband access: 60 Venezuela 5.1% Between 0-3% monthly GNI 61 Mexico 5.3% USA BB cost is 0.4% 71 Argentina 7.6% 72 Chile 7.6% 76 DR 9.5% LAR, cost of Broadband access: 77 Brasil 9.6% Only one country <3%: T&T 78 Jamaica 9.7% TOP 8 Economies: 5% - 15% 84 Peru 12.7% 86 Colombia 13.4% COMPARED TO 7 RISING ECONOMIES: 89 Ecuador 15.5% Turkey, Russia, Romania, 94 Guatemala 16.7% Poland, Vietnam, Thailand, RSA 101 Paraguay 25.1% LATAM 7 ~ 3X cost as a % of GNI In bold/blue the top LAR countries by GDP Source: Measuring the Information Society, the ICT development Index. ITU 2009 5
  6. 6. What’s needed to cross the DD?? • Affordable clients that deliver adequate capability • Training and aids to learn how to use the clients • Applications & Usage models that work • Affordable, reliable, adequate networks • Investment and committment Are we at an inflection point to bringing the benefits of Broadband, Internet, and Compute technology and “cross the Digital Divide”??: 6
  7. 7. Netbook & ULV Notebook Will Drive BB Demand < $450 > Netbook Notebook M ulti-purpose PCs  Device for the Internet  Purpose built for Internet use  Business, Productivity, Entertain  W Learn, Com unicate, View eb: m  W 2.0 eb Vietnam MIC-VTF Hinterland Com pact form factor (7-10.2”) program  Regular, Daily, Serious w orkloads  Internet Com panion Device Desktops (Atom™ based) of form factors  Range $ 220 USD < 2.5cm , <1.4Kg-3lb, >10.2” -1” scrn with 15.6” LCD monitors Affordable clients 7 *Other nam and brands m be claim as the property of others es ay ed Intel Confidential – For Use By Customers Under NDA Only Intel Confidential *Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others 7
  8. 8. Computer Knowledge and Use is Viral 80% of learning is -Doing (40%) -Friends (40%) 8/08: 100M “friends” – 4/09: 200M “friends” = 100M new users in 8 months 8 Training and Aids
  9. 9. New Usage Models In Developing Economies Are Succeeding Allowing Usage Spirals To Develop 9
  10. 10. PRC: 800K clinics/hospitals; 3.2M doctors target – 5 “RCA”pc’s per clinic “Rural Clinical Assistant” •Intel® Atom™ Processor N270 at 1.6GHz Durable drop-proof construction and •Intel® 945GSE Chipset rugged outer case •1.5X system performance* •~30% longer battery life* Carrying handle – mobile-friendly design •8.9” LCD Water-resistant keyboard •1024 x 600 resolution support software stack convertible Basic – for a better user experience • Hardware optimized applications Chinese handwriting & pen-input Web browser add-on  Webcam • Quick launcher • Image recovery • Easy network manager • Quick controller Intel-powered convertible classmate PC platform management • Tablet with a touch screen, makes it easy to use • System backup & restore • When open like a traditional laptop, the screen swivels • Provisioning 180 degrees • Patching & upgrade • Advanced palm-recognition tech lets workers use full-hand clinic assistant support when writing or drawing • eForm (for insurance claims, personal records) • Built-in camera rotates 180 degrees • Doctor education and decision aid tools • Integrated Accelerometer • Drug search database 10
  11. 11. www.skoool.com 30 countries, 10 languages, 4million+ visitors/yr, WSIS, BETT awards, 250 math & science MM modules, RELPE integrated in LAR 11 IP FREE OF CHARGE
  12. 12. India CSC’s • Shared Access around for 16 years. • Many Failures- Some Success • #1 issue is self-sustainability • Key Learnings • Private ownership & investment critical • Robust BB network and PC’s (virus) • National & State Province leadership – Organize/drive process – Provide “outsourcing” revenue source (30%) – mobilize remote e-government/utility service • Clear & Real reduction/stop of funding REVENUE GENERATION • Government Services • Agriculture – Certificates – Market linkages & sales:produce, – Application to Government Schemes seeds, fertilizers, pesticides – Surveys – Agri consultancy • Education , Capacity Building • Financial Services – Schooling, Higher Education – Loans, Deposits, Insurance – Vocational • Commercial Services • Healthcare Services – Retailing 12 – Telemedicine – Specialist consultancy – Payments
  13. 13. SME – Export Solution Package • First joint business bundle: • Affordable Intel HP Laptop • Local broadband connectivity • Accounting package • Four training courses • Scaling strategy • Verify initial success • Scale via other local commerce organizations • Re-use business training materials within and beyond Ghana • Case study 13
  14. 14. PRC “Thousand Villages” Farmer Information and PC Program with China Telecom Ministry of Commerce 14
  15. 15. 3G Growth Ignite new PC/NB users CHINA India Turkey Vietnam ’09 3G Cell Auctions/Awards anticipated 300 - 400M New subscribers in next 24 months …150-200M PC cards & dongle per year by 2013 15 …per GSMA & ABI
  16. 16. 3G Is Not A Complete Solution “The reality of 3G networks being overloaded With PC & Smartphone data is with us TODAY ! “ 3G is not sufficient BB for data •Interim connectivity solution •Individual nomadic usage •Slow, inconsistent & expensive •Reasonable geo coverage •Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times between 2008 and 2013. •In the 7 years from 2005 to 2012, mobile data traffic will have increased a thousand-fold. CISCO™ Forecast Mobile Data (Jan 29, 2009) 16
  17. 17. 2015 – Average MM Subscriber uses 14GBytes+ per month = 30 MB / Mo. = 17
  18. 18. Country Telco(s) Launched Probable 1 Korea KT yes ~4G WBB 2 3 4 Japan USA Netherland UQ Clear yes yes yes is 5 6 7 Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Wateen Smart, Globe Dialog yes yes yes Here Today 8 9 10 Malaysia India Australia Packet-1,YTL Tata(VSNL), BSNL Unwired yes yes yes 11 Singapore Qmax yes 12 Chinese Taipei VMAX yes •40+ countries with significant 13 14 Thailand Cambodia tbd Millicom yes WiMAX Commercial Service 15 16 Indonesia Blangadesh tbd tbd 17 Vietnam tbd India 2H09 18 19 Romania Bulgaria Orange Max, Nexcom yes yes 20 Hungary MobilHungary yes 21 Poland Netia etc. yes •USB Dongle Clients ~ $50 22 23 Slovakia Croatia Wimax Telecom Wimax Telecom yes yes 24 KSA STC, ITC yes 25 Turkey tbd 26 Egypt tbd •Network infrastructure 27 28 Libya Iraq LTT Iraq Tel yes yes •< DSL OP/CAPEX 29 30 Nigeria Kenya Horizon KDN yes yes 31 Algeria AlgTel yes •~ = 3G 32 33 RSA Bahrain Vodacom, WBS Zain (MTN) yes yes 34 Jordan Umniah yes 35 Morocco Wana yes •Performance today 36 37 Kazakstan Ukraine tbd UHT, Astelit yes yes 38 Russia Comstar, Scartel yes 512kup-6Mbpsdown $40/mo 39 40 Colombia Chile Avantel, Une Telmex, VTR, Entel yes yes 41 Bolivia VIVA/Novatel yes 42 Argentina Telmex yes •1 Billion pops covered by 2011 43 44 Peru Mexico eMax, Telmex MVSNet yes yes •75M-100M subs by 2014 45 46 Brazil Venezuela Embratel(Telmex), TVA(Tef) Movimax yes yes 47 Panama WiPET yes •Data Overlay to Voice model 48 Carib DiGiCel yes 18 49 DR WINTEL yes 50 Ireland IB, Clear Yes
  19. 19. • Governments Are “Stepping-up” With Investment and Support …Telecommunications Industry is too 19
  20. 20. Policy Impact on Local Economy • Subsidies for PC’s and BB – PRC, Spain, Vietnam, Singapore, India • VAT reductions: numerous examples around the world – PRC, Australia, Colombia, India, Vietnam, Turkey, etc • Turkey - 3 month 10% reduction • Australia - 50% tax rebate on all PCs purchased for Ed • Colombia - eliminated VAT on PCs • Brazil – BB service VAT reduction in 3 states • Vietnam 15% VAT reduction • Increased investment in BB infrastructure Increased PC & BB purchases help local economies grow & compete 20
  21. 21. Leading uses of USF for Broadband Co untry De s c riptio n Turkey Subsidizing BB to 18000 rural schools; 4500 Public Internet Centers, 700ku school PC 07/08 Nigeria Accelerate BB in State Capitals, train 3000 educators; 35000 CMPC Pakistan BB Coverage 2010 goal=from .1 to 1.5M BB subs; 10k rural PC centers Chile BB c o nne c tivity 2010 g o al= fro m 1% to 90% o f rural are as Morocco Subsidize BB connect to schools + Teachers Laptop Romania 600 Telecenters Portugal 400M Euro subsidy of NB's + 3G from spectrum auction Vietnam Internet to Villages  4,400 Connected Com unities m India $100M USF Rural PC subsidy $100 + $3/m BB o US F is an Co lo mbi $ 300 M Bro adband (larg e s t us e o f US F fo r Bro adband ) s c ho o ls , e - Additio nal s o urc e a g o v, Pe ru >3,000 rural c o mmunitie s w / pho ne and inte rne t ac c e s s with US F o f S timulus funding Arg e ntin 1 s t pro g ram e ve r appro ve d this April. 1500 rural c o mmunitie s and a the ir s c ho o ls with pho ne and inte rne t ac c e s s . 21
  22. 22. We are at an inflection point which can ALLOW US TO CROSS THE DIGITAL DIVIDE: • Our Small and Medium Businesses • Our Schools and Universities • Our Health Care Hospitals, Clinics, & Clinicians • Our Export Industries • Our Rural/Agrarian Communities • Our Governments’ Services to Citizens • …. And our FAMILIES ¿por qué no ahora? 22
  23. 23. What might be the Role of Government?? • Enable the ICT indus try w national plans, policy, & open com ith petition • Including financing, subsidies, and lowtaxation on IT • Embrace ne w te c hno lo g ie s and role model their uses: W AX, 3G, IM FTTH • Rapidly provide useable and useful spectrum • Enable a vibrant LOCAL Dig ital Ec o no my … particularly Software developm ent • Invest in Educ atio n: focused on 21 st Century Skills usage. - Curriculum w s hich are relevant to the challenges of today and tomorrow • Invest in re s e arc h and de ve lo pme nt LEAD FROM THE FRONT! 23
  24. 24. STATE OUR VISION, OBJECTIVE, AND WILL … MUST SET PUBLIC & MEASUREABLE GOALS • K-12 schools - 90% of schools with BB, – teacher pc training, – widespread pc proliferation (student:PC ratio defined), – local education ISV growth • SMB’s in towns >2000 pax w/ affordable, reliable BB – tax relief for BB & ICT • SHARED BB ACCESS: CSC’s , PC’s within 1 hour walk • HEALTH - 100% of medical clinics with BB & pc’s • UNIVERSITY/COLLEGE - WBB umbrella and NB for all • INFO-SERVICE - Internet based for medicine, agriculture, e-Gov • WBB in deployment (3G and 4G) – Measurement of access & QOS (uptime, cost, consistent speed) 24
  25. 25. LEAD FROM THE FRONT! Thank You 25
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