Economic indicators -_pakistan2

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Economic indicators -_pakistan, june 2008

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Economic indicators -_pakistan2

  1. 1. Pakistan Review of Economic Performance
  2. 2. Pakistan : Quick FACTS <ul><li>ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN Area: 796,095 sq km Population : 165 mln Capital City: Islamabad Religion: 97% Muslim, 3% Christian and Hindu Government: Federal Republic Head of State: Mr. Asif Ali Zardari Real GDP Growth rate – FY08: 5.8% Annual Per Capita Income: US $ 1085 Inflation: 12.0%% Legal System: Common Law Major Industries: Textiles, sugar, vegetable oils, agricultural products, cement, fertilizers, steel, chemicals, sporting goods, light engineering Major trade partners for exports: U.S., U.A.E, U.K, Germany, and Hong Kong Major trade partners for imports: U.A.E, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, U.S, and Japan </li></ul>
  3. 3. PAKISTAN: PAST ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
  4. 4. Real GDP Growth <ul><li>GDP growth of over 5% has been witnessed 9 times during the last 18 years period (FY91 to FY08).Out of this, the most consistent pattern of high GDP growth was experienced during the Musharraf era. </li></ul><ul><li>Other instances of high GDP growth were seen during the 90s, under the government of Nawaz Sharif (FY91 & FY92) and Benazir Bhutto (FY95 and FY96). </li></ul><ul><li>A slowdown in economic activity was experienced during the period FY97 to FY02 due to the deteriorating economic condition of the country during this period. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Sectoral Share in GDP <ul><li>Our economy is heavily dependent on the service sector, which has a share of about 53% in the GDP of Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture remains the second important contributor in GDP, with a share of 21% (FY08). </li></ul><ul><li>The share of manufacturing sector, the third largest contributor, has increased from 15% to 19% during the same period, which can partly be attributed to the rising consumerism during this period which led to increased production and sales by manufacturing sector (e.g. Automobile sector) </li></ul>
  6. 6. Sectoral & GDP Growth 3.5% 4.2% 3.9% 2.0% 3.1% 4.7% 7.5% 9.0% 5.8% 6.8% 5.8%
  7. 7. Foreign Private Investment - (US Mln $)
  8. 8. Monetary Assets(M2) Growth <ul><li>M2, which includes cash in circulation and deposits, has experienced high growth FY02 onwards with a average growth of 17.4% during the period. </li></ul><ul><li>The high M2 growth has resulted in excess demand and is partly responsible for the high inflationary pressures currently being experienced by our country </li></ul><ul><li>The high interest rates prevalent in the economy will however result in controlling the M2 growth going forward, which is targeted to be curtailed to 10% in the FY09 as per the agreement with IMF. </li></ul>
  9. 9. BREAK OF BUDGET DEFICIT FINANCING Privatization Proceeds Non-Bank Bank External Financing (in Billions) FY08P FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 FY02 FY01 FY00 FY99 - 71 97 28 11 4 8 - - - 100 57 8 8 61 120 85 92 97 156 464 102 71 60 64 (56) 14 (33) 40 (74) 119 147 149 120 (6) 113 83 121 70 97
  10. 10. Trade Balance <ul><li>The trade balance of Pakistan has grown by more than 7 times during the 10 year period FY98 to FY08. </li></ul><ul><li>The imports of the country picked up pace from FY05 onwards </li></ul><ul><li>The increased imports during the last year are largely to Petroleum products, Edible Oil and import of Wheat and Fertilizer. </li></ul>* <ul><li>Source: State Bank Of Pakistan </li></ul>
  11. 11. Remittances - (us mln $) 1490 1060 984 1,087 2,389 3,872 4,237 4,169 4,600 5,494 6,451 2,966
  12. 12. Current Account Deficit Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Economic Survey 2007-08
  13. 13. External Debt - (US mln $) * Source: SBP website
  14. 14. Inflation
  15. 15. Subsidies - (PKR mln)
  16. 16. Reserves - (US mln $)
  17. 17. Per Capita Income ($)
  18. 18. Exchange Rate <ul><li>The devaluation of Rupee, esp. in the later half of the FY08, has resulted in significant increase in PKR to other currency exchange rates. </li></ul><ul><li>Among PKR/USD, PKR/GBP and PKR/EUR exchange rates, the latter has experienced steepest increase of about 36%, whereas PKR/USD and PKR/GBP have increased by 13% and 16% respectively . </li></ul>
  19. 19. SECTOR-WISE PERFORMANCE
  20. 20. AUTO SECTOR
  21. 22. Fertilizer sector
  22. 24. Cement Sector
  23. 25. ENERGY SECTOR * Source: Economic Survey 2007-08 and ADB website
  24. 27. BANKING SECTOR
  25. 28. Lending Rate Deposit Rate Spread

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