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Evlib2009forum1

by jatpack

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Evlib2009forum1 Document Transcript

AL Join in the discussion look for the group on
Next Generation Battery 2 - 3 September Hyatt On The Bund, Shanghai Achieving Optimum Cost / Watt-Hour Performance Safety And Cycle Life Of Intelligent Packs In Electric Vehicles And Mass Transport
CONFERENCE DAY ONE 2 September 2009
The Future Supply and Price of Lithium to the Li-ion Battery Market David Miller GM Strategic Development Disclaimer To the extent permitted by law, none of Talison, any of its related bodies corporate, or any of their representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained in this Presentation and none of those parties have or assume any obligation to provide any additional information or to update this Presentation. This Presentation contains statements which are in the nature of forward-looking statements. To the extent permitted by law, no representation or warranty is given, and nothing in this Presentation or any other information made available by Talison or any other party should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future condition of the Talison business or operations.
Lithium Battery Supply Chain Automobile Manufacturers Battery Assemblers Cathode Manufacturers Electrolyte Producers High Purity Converters Lithium Chemical Converters Lithium Mineral Producers Lithium Brine Producers Topics Talison Minerals’ role in the lithium supply chain Current and potential sources of lithium To what extent will lithium supply meet future demand Lithium price analysis Factor effecting future investments in lithium production
Talison Minerals World’s largest lithium minerals resource World’s largest producer of lithium minerals Largest supplier of lithium products to the non-chemical market One of the largest suppliers of primary feedstock to the lithium chemical market Unique understanding of the whole lithium primary market Lithium Supply Overview Total production in 2008 - 120,000t LCE (22,500t Li) Sourced from lithium rich brine lakes and lithium mineral deposits Highly geographically concentrated
Lithium Brine Production Silver Peak Qinghai CITIC Zhabuye SQM SCL FMC Lithium Brine Production (2008) – 75,000t LCE Lithium Brines Production Qinghai CITIC Zhabuye
Lithium Minerals Production Kokotay Bernic Lake Jinchuan Maerkang Ningdu China Other Portugal/Spain Bikita Brazil Spodumene Greenbushes Petalite Lepidolite Lithium Minerals Production (2008) – 370,000t Mineral Products Lithium Minerals Production Open Pit - Greenbushes Underground - China
Lithium Minerals Production Greenbushes China Projects Keliber Western Lithium Quebec Lithium DXC Separation Rapids Jadar Dexin Jiajika Mibra Salar de Uyuni Olaroz Rincon Minerals Galaxy Brines Hectorite Jadarite
Lithium Consumption LITHIUM CONSUMPTION (2008) – 118,000t LCE New and Growing Applications Major secondary battery manufacturers all expanding productions Development of new markets – Higher voltage hand held power tools – Electric bikes – Large terrestrial power storage facilities Credit: Milwaukee Credit: Schwinn
Lithium Carbonate Demand LITHIUM MARKET DEMAND (EXCLUDING EV MARKET) kt Li2CO3 Factor Affecting Lithium Demand for Electric Vehicles Commitment by automobile manufacturers to mass produce lithium powered electric vehicles Growth in global motor vehicle sales Lithium powered electric vehicle growth as a percentage of total sales Split of electric vehicle types: – Battery powered electric vehicles – Plug-in Hybrid – Hybrid electric vehicle – Mild hybrid Battery technology (intensity of lithium use per installed kWhr)
Lithium Carbonate Demand LITHIUM MARKET DEMAND (INCLUDING EV MARKET) kt Li2CO3 World Resources eLi2CO3 Broad based resources: 210Mt Current producer resources: 80Mt Developer resources: 70Mt Resources available from current producers alone to last well over 100 years Source: LAWM
Current Producer Capacities Current producers’ capacity estimated at about 150,000t LCE Capacity to bring on an additional 100,000t LCE in the short to medium term Current producers can meet any demand scenario in the short to medium term Current producers have the ability to meet longer term requirements for most demand scenarios with further incremental expansions or the development of new projects Historical Prices Historically the primary lithium chemical market was dominated by FMC Lithium and Foote Minerals Sharp drop in prices when SQM entered the market in 1996 Prices gradually rose in the early part of this decade as demand increased Delays in expansions at the South American brines operations in late 2006 resulted in lithium chemical prices doubling by mid 2007 to current levels
Lithium Battery Supply Chain Automobile Manufacturers Battery Assemblers Cathode Manufacturers Electrolyte Producers High Purity Converters Lithium Chemical Converters Lithium Mineral Producers Lithium Brine Producers Price Outlook Realization that the market can absorb higher lithium chemical prices Prices have remained relatively stable for the last two years Producers prepared to sacrifice volume rather than reduce price Dynamics which will affect future pricing: – Lithium brine producers remain price setters in the near term – Supply shortage if either demand accelerates or expansions are delayed – Higher prices will encourage new entrants – Supply lock-up
Summary Strong growth in demand to continue for primary lithium feedstock While there are sufficient lithium resources to meet future demand, communication along the supply chain is critical In the short to medium term supply will continue to be dominated by current producers Higher prices required for most new projects to be economic Future pricing will be effected by: – Brines producers being price makers in the near term – Any supply shortage – Lock up of supply The Future Supply and Price of Lithium to the Li-ion Battery Market David Miller GM Strategic Development
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