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Industrial Market Snapshot (3Q12)
 

Industrial Market Snapshot (3Q12)

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    Industrial Market Snapshot (3Q12) Industrial Market Snapshot (3Q12) Document Transcript

    • IndustrialMarketSnapshotIndianapolis, IndianaThird Quarter 2012
    • Industrial Market Snapshot Indianapolis • Third Quarter • 2012 Market Tracker Vacancy Net Absorption (Qtr) Net Absorption (YTD) *Arrows indicate Qtr.Qtr trend 3.8% 642,882 1,961,080 Overview Net absorption for the third quarter of 2012 registered 642,882 SF, placing net growth for the year at 1,961,080 SF. Leasing velocity in the Central Indiana industrial market continues to track at an impressive clip with 3.0 MSF of new leasing and over 3.1 MSF of renewals and expansions inked through the first three quarters. As a result, the greater Indianapolis market is among the best-performing industrial markets in the nation and is outperforming all other Midwestern markets relative to year-to-date net absorption. Submarket variations in year-to-date net absorption included the South (+636,604 SF),Indianapolis Industrial East (+560,062 SF), Southwest (+584,113 SF), West (+441,959 SF), Northeast 3Q12 3Q11 (+209,438 SF), Downtown (+42,416 SF), North (+16,279 SF), Southeast (-11,414 SF) and Northwest (-518,377 SF).Inventory SF 239,644,682 240,292,586Vacant SF 9,020,362 11,290,002 The overall industrial market vacancy rate currently stands at 3.8%, down 90 bps from aVacancy Rate 3.8% 4.7% year prior. This places Central Indiana industrial vacancy markedly lower than both the U.S. and Midwest averages of 9.1%. Variations in submarket vacancy for all product typesOccupied SF 230,624,320 228,993,584 included the Southeast (1.9%), South (2.2%), North (2.5%), West (2.5%), SouthwestNet Absorption (Qtr) 642,882 -230,710 (3.3%), Downtown (3.8%), East (4.2%), Northwest (5.1%), and Northeast (5.4%). AcrossNet Absorption (YTD) 1,961,080 3,867,496 the market, product-type variations in multi-tenant vacancy were comprised of transport (1.4%), modern bulk (1.7%), maintenance (1.8%), manufacturing (2.6%), traditional bulk (4.5%), medium distribution (5.0%), flex (8.4%) and office showroom (8.8%).Vacancy RateVacancy Rate Forecast10% •  entral Indiana will continue to outperform the Midwest and U.S. relative to absorption C Historical Average8% and vacancy. Industrial vacancy will remain historically low, tracking below 4 percent for6% the remainder of 2012 and into 2013. Leasing velocity will remain vibrant, and upward pressure on asking rates will occur. Expect year-over-year average industrial asking4% rates to increase between 2 and 3 percent by year-end at the current pace of growth.2% •  eveloper interest is returning to the market. Expect to see build-to-suit activity and the D0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 reemergence of speculative industrial development continue, with sizable projects coming online in 2013. U •  ncertainty and slowing demand from abroad, particularly the EU, remain significantNet Absorption headwinds. Further, signs of slower growth emerging from China and Brazil do not bodeNet Absorption8,000,000 well. Other data is more encouraging, however. Residential construction, which typically accounts for 20 percent of warehouse occupancy, has clearly been trending up. Further,6,000,000 demand for durable goods will continue and this will support growth in transportation4,000,000 and distribution enterprises. Correspondingly, expect continued commercial demand along major interstate corridors.2,000,000 •  ver the last two quarters macro-economic risks have shifted to the downside, O 0 particularly in the short term, but our overall outlook for the economy and industrial 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 sector has not changed measurably from that we proffered at the beginning of the year. Net Absorption Longer-term, the Indianapolis metro area will continue to benefit from a well-diversified economy and a reasonable cost structure, which will attract a steady inflow of new residents and businesses. As a result, industrial demand is expected to be above the Midwest average over the forecast horizon. cassidyturley.com
    • Cassidy Turley Industrial Market Snapshot—All Product TypesIndianapolis Area • Third Quarter • 2012 Inventory VACANT VACANCY OCCUPIED OCCUPANCY NET ABSORPTION NET ABSORPTION Submarket (SF) (SF) RATE (SF) RATE (QTR) (YTD) Downtown 3Q2011 17,643,392 685,291 3.9% 16,958,101 96.1% (113,160) (61,413) 2Q2012 17,661,406 625,642 3.5% 17,035,764 96.5% (5,134) 82,366 3Q2012 17,661,406 665,592 3.8% 16,995,814 96.2% (39,950) 42,416 EAST 3Q2011 45,070,818 2,214,212 4.9% 42,856,606 95.1% 204,050 513,888 2Q2012 45,162,578 1,937,321 4.3% 43,225,257 95.7% 560,124 573,333 3Q2012 45,095,710 1,883,724 4.2% 43,211,986 95.8% (13,271) 560,062 NORTHEAST 3Q2011 17,971,554 985,929 5.5% 16,985,625 94.5% (48,705) 148,538 2Q2012 18,002,865 1,012,379 5.6% 16,990,486 94.4% 51,626 98,597 3Q2012 18,071,053 969,726 5.4% 17,101,327 94.6% 110,841 209,438 NORTH 3Q2011 4,576,882 188,067 4.1% 4,388,815 95.9% 53,200 117,578 2Q2012 4,547,083 224,403 4.9% 4,322,680 95.1% (68,135) (66,135) 3Q2012 4,517,012 111,918 2.5% 4,405,094 97.5% 82,414 16,279 NORTHWEST 3Q2011 44,038,871 2,189,306 5.0% 41,849,565 95.0% 97,309 1,341,636 2Q2012 43,894,366 1,844,511 4.2% 42,049,855 95.8% (216,522) (280,922) 3Q2012 44,062,755 2,250,355 5.1% 41,812,400 94.9% (237,455) (518,377) SOUTHEAST 3Q2011 17,610,005 328,014 1.9% 17,281,991 98.1% 34,983 228,654 2Q2012 17,609,975 351,398 2.0% 17,258,577 98.0% (73,434) (23,414) 3Q2012 17,609,975 339,398 1.9% 17,270,577 98.1% 12,000 (11,414) SOUTH 3Q2011 12,045,384 1,287,716 10.7% 10,757,668 89.3% (277,129) (25,570) 2Q2012 12,473,857 903,523 7.2% 11,570,334 92.8% (22,396) 8,604 3Q2012 12,473,857 275,523 2.2% 12,198,334 97.8% 628,000 636,604 SOUTHWEST 3Q2011 60,778,743 2,501,531 4.1% 58,277,212 95.9% (153,970) 1,444,875 2Q2012 61,178,196 1,986,671 3.2% 59,191,525 96.8% 13,614 653,810 3Q2012 61,170,145 2,048,317 3.3% 59,121,828 96.7% (69,697) 584,113 WEST 3Q2011 20,556,937 918,936 4.5% 19,638,001 95.5% (27,288) 159,310 2Q2012 18,982,769 645,809 3.4% 18,336,960 96.6% 348,283 271,959 3Q2012 18,982,769 475,809 2.5% 18,506,960 97.5% 170,000 441,959 TOTALS 3Q2011 240,292,586 11,299,002 4.7% 228,993,584 95.3% (230,710) 3,867,496 2Q2012 239,513,095 9,531,657 4.0% 229,981,438 96.0% 588,026 1,318,198 3Q2012 239,644,682 9,020,362 3.8% 230,624,320 96.2% 642,882 1,961,080Industrial Market Overall Change in Inventory, Net Indianapolis Industrial Statistics Indianapolis Industrial StatisticsAbsorption & Vacancy Rate Indianapolis Industrial Market Distribution of Vacant Space by Product TypeType Distribution of Vacant Space by Product Overall 3rd Quarter 2012 Change in Inventory, YTD Net Absorption, and Vacancy 2nd Quarter 2012Square Feet Office/Showroom 10 10% 16.7% Millions 9 9% 8 8% Maintenance & Medium 7 6 7% Transport Distribution 5 6% 4 5% 0.5% 27.4% 3 4% 2 3% 1 2% 0 Manufacturing -1 1% -2 0% 19.4% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Absorption Inv Change Vac % Flex 6.7% Traditional Bulk Modern Bulk 18.1% 11.3%
    • Cassidy turley Industrial Market notable transactions (ytd)Indianapolis Area • Third Quarter • 2012 • Transactions greater than 50,000 SFlease renewals and expansions sQuare sQuare CoMpany subMarket CoMpany subMarket FootaGe FootaGe Anderson Merchandisers South 703,496 Carrier West 442,138 Prime Distribution South 412,000 HP Northwest 419,046 Undisclosed Northwest 380,160 OHL Southwest 413,280 Regal Beloit Southwest 376,000 Jacobson Warehouse Company Southwest 333,566 Atkins East 211,500 Venture Southwest 299,000 Smart Warehousing Southwest 190,440 Ceva Plainfield 283,000 Celadon South 157,500 Genco West 177,600 Thermal Structures Southwest 141,000 Venture Southwest 140,000 Fagerdala Southwest 120,429 Keller Crescent Co. Northwest 122,000 AVC Southwest 100,000 Crycovac Northwest 120,000 Rolls Royce Southwest 85,000 Hanzo Logistics Southwest 106,145 FiServe Southwest 75,542 Wurth Northwest 96,000 total square Feet 2,953,067 Stericycle Southwest 52,800 Wurth (expansion) Northwest 51,600 Simpac, Inc. Southwest 50,000 total square Feet 3,106,175 Indianapolis Industrial MarketIndustrial Market traditional and and Modern Bulk Space Traditional Modern bulk space Historical Vacancy rates Historical Vacancy RatesIndianapolis Area • Third Quarter • 2012 3rd Quarter 201219%17%15%13%11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% 4Q 000 4Q 001 4Q 002 4Q 003 4Q 004 4Q 005 4Q 006 4Q 007 1Q 008 2Q 009 3Q 009 4Q 009 1Q 009 2Q 010 3Q 010 4Q 010 1Q 010 2Q 011 3Q 011 4Q 011 1Q 011 2Q 012 3Q 12 2 21 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 24Q Modern Bulk Traditional Bulk Indianapolis Industrial MarketIndustrial Market Flex space Historical Vacancy rates Flex Space Historical Vacancy RatesIndianapolis Area • Third Quarter • 2012 3rd Quarter 201220% Contact Information18% Jason w. tolliver, J.d.16% Research Director14% One American Square, Suite 130012% Indianapolis, IN 46282 t 317.634.636310% F317.639.0504 8% The information contained within this 6% report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information 4% may contain errors or omissions and 2% is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. 00 4Q 001 4Q 002 4Q 003 4Q 004 4Q 005 4Q 006 4Q 007 1Q 008 2Q 009 3Q 009 4Q 009 1Q 009 2Q 010 3Q 010 4Q 010 1Q 010 2Q 011 3Q 011 4Q 011 1Q 011 2Q 012 3Q 012 12 20 20 Copyright © 2011 Cassidy Turley. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 24Q 4Q All rights reserved. All Types Flex
    • Indianapolis Industrial Market Statistics Third QuarterIndianapolis Industrial Market statistics—all product types 2012—All Product TypesIndianapolis Area • Third Quarter • 2012 North Northeast Inventory 4,517,012 SF Inventory 18,071,053 SF Vacant SF 111,918 SF Vacant SF 969,726 SF Vacancy Rate 2.5% Vacancy Rate 5.4% YTD Net Absorption 16,279 SF YTD Net Absorption 209,438 SF Northwest Inventory 44,062,755 SF Vacant SF 2,250,355 SF Vacancy Rate 5.1% YTD Net Absorption (518,377) SF East Inventory 45,095,710 SF Vacant SF 1,883,724 SF Vacancy Rate 4.2% West YTD Net Absorption 560,062 SF Inventory 18,982,769 SF Vacant SF 475,809 SF Vacancy Rate 2.5% Downtown YTD Net Absorption 441,959 SF Inventory 17,661,406 SF Vacant SF 665,592 SF Vacancy Rate 3.8% YTD Net Absorption 42,416 SF Southeast Inventory 17,609,975 SF Vacant SF 339,398 SF Vacancy Rate 1.9% Southwest YTD Net Absorption (11,414) SF Inventory 61,170,145 SF Vacant SF 2,048,317 SF Vacancy Rate 3.3% YTD Net Absorption 584,113 SF South Inventory 12,473,857 SF Vacant SF 275,523 SF Vacancy Rate 2.2% YTD Net Absorption 636,604 SFabout Cassidy turley Contact InformationCassidy Turley is a leading commercial real estate services provider with more than 3,600 professionals in more Jason w. tolliver, J.d.than 60 offices nationwide. The company represents a wide range of clients—from small businesses to Fortune Research Director One American Square, Suite 1300500 companies, from local non-profits to major institutions. The firm completed transactions valued at $22 billion Indianapolis, IN 46282in 2011, manages 455 million square feet on behalf of institutional, corporate and private clients and supports t 317.634.6363more than 28,000 domestic corporate services locations. Cassidy Turley serves owners, investors and tenants F 317.639.0504with a full spectrum of integrated commercial real estate services—including capital markets, tenant representation, The information contained within thiscorporate services, project leasing, property management, project and development services, and research and report is gathered from multiple sourcesconsulting. Cassidy Turley enhances its global service delivery outside of North America through a partnership considered to be reliable. The informationwith GVA, giving clients access to commercial real estate professionals in 65 international markets. Please visit may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty orwww.cassidyturley.com for more information about Cassidy Turley. representations as to its accuracy. Copyright © 2012 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved. cassidyturley.com