TADS Telecom Summit Disruptive Analysis Dean Bubley

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Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis, Telecom Summit presentation at TADS 21-22 Nov 2013 on 'WebRTC: Beyond the Phone Call'

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TADS Telecom Summit Disruptive Analysis Dean Bubley

  1. 1. WebRTC: Beyond the Phone Call Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis TADS, Bangkok, November, 2013 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis        London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13 Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean November 2013 Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  3. 3. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone” Near voice
  4. 4. Pretty good for the 19th century... Old distant voice [Tele-phone] >100 years ago
  5. 5. ... but really not good enough for 21st century “Hegemony of the caller”
  6. 6. Intent & context.... Why do people make phone calls (or send messages, share media or use video), anyway? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  7. 7. The chart you’ll never see… Phone calls by purpose Gossip Meeting up Flirting Spam Showing off Work Wasting time November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  8. 8. Different contexts Out walking Public transport Living room Board room Bar November 2013 & Multi-tasking Concentrating Drunk Asleep At work Airline lounge Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  9. 9. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE PURPOSES WELL (MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN UBIQUITOUS ONES) November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  10. 10. Fragmentation of communications models Standalone Circuit calls Good to have “lowest common denominator” IP Embedded app/web voice & video Non-call comms Maybe ubiquitous in a niche Ubiquity no/negative benefit November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  11. 11. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones SMS November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  12. 12. Also: cloud, storage, recording, analytics… Voice has value at a single instant November 2013 Voice has value beyond a single instant Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2013
  13. 13. Convergence & standards Fragmentation & differentiation Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO more ubiquitous, interoperable services (& especially not RCS or VoLTE) November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  14. 14. WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers Service e.g. SMS, Telephony Product e.g. Lync, Uberconference Feature e.g. Business social Function November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  15. 15. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013 November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  16. 16. “WebRTC isn’t a standard. It’s a movement” (Quote from Tsahi Levent-Levi @tsahil)   Irony: problems making WebRTC stronger not weaker “Hardcore” comms developers going “down to the metal”    Longer-tail developers being addressed by API/cloud players       Building around core RTCWeb protocols & media engine Embedding WebRTC elements into desktop applications “Packaged” WebRTC capabilities like multiparty video Abstraction to avoid risk from changing standards APIs for iOS, Android apps Next tier up of service platforms emerging too Renewed interest in “realtime everywhere” No “religion” about WebRTC “purity” – just get on with it! November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  17. 17. View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases Early enterprise adoption Live & commercial Initial consumer web apps/devices Pilots / precommercial Trials & demos November 2013 Verticals & corporate Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  18. 18. WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls” November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  19. 19. The future? Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis: not a “phone call”! November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  20. 20. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  21. 21. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs? Extend onnet services & IMS / SS7 Strengthen enterprise & verticals TV, entertainment & digital services November 2013 Turbocharge Telco-OTT apps IMS should be <30% total WebRTC effort & investment. Too slow, too call-centric Sell packaged WebRTC services to subscriber Enhance developer platform Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Also: invest / incubate Improve own CRM & systems Maybe M2M, devices etc
  22. 22. WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs CU-RTC-Web? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  23. 23. Conclusion          WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years Already here & being used A “movement” as well as a standard “Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction Realtime data will be the real surprise Not just about browsers A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players Billions of devices & users! November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  24. 24. For WebRTC report & quarterly update details email information@disruptiveanalysis.com November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  25. 25. www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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