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ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE             DEVELOPMENT        TV D EL I V E RY         E VO LU TI O N:          H Y BR I...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012CONTENTSINTRODUCTION ...................................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012KEY TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS .........................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Confused Consumer Proposition ..........................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012DRIVERS FOR HYBRID TV FOR IPTV PROVIDERS ...............................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012WALMART / VUDU .........................................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Kindle Fire: Great Video Experience, Great Android App Recommendation...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012APPENDIX 2: TV EVERYWHERE QUESTIONNAIRE ................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012                                TA BLE O F FI GU RE SFigure 1. Mappin...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 40. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts ...............
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 86. Example of how Existing Systems are Extended into TVE .......
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 130. What is your view of your PayTV providers on-demand servi...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012                                        I N T ROD U C T I ON    The T...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012    I have included the feedback provided by the over 17,000 readers ...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012       What the Viewers Think            o    My practical experienc...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012                                    E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY   ...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Deustche Telekom T-Entertain, Telecom Portugal Meo, Telefonica O2 Cze...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012     Hybrid TV is the delivery of a TV service through both broadcast...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012     At the intersection between Broadcast and Network-Agnostic is th...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012subscribe to its broadcast payTV service, like Sky Go, and will charg...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 2. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable an...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012             Figure 4. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Househ...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012     The UK often seen as a close follower to the US market is taking...
Evolution Of Hybrid TV Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2
Evolution Of Hybrid TV Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2
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Evolution Of Hybrid TV Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2
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Evolution Of Hybrid TV Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2

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A reference text in the evolution of TV delivery. OTT (Internet) TV cannot be viewed as a silo, it must be considered in the wider evolution of the industry, across payTV, Free to Air, hybrid TV, TV everywhere, broadband, regulation, consumer trends and the interplay of actors across the TV ecosystem. If you would like a copy just email me at 'info (at) alanquayle.com'

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  • Dear Alan, good morning. I came across this wonderful report and would like a copy for my analysis. We are a STB design house and would like to understand the market information. Can you please share it to us on ashokp@stblabs.com
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  • Hi Alan, Can you please share this report. I have been trying to study the market trends and this report will be a great help.Thanks in advance. Sherablhamo99@gmail.com.
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  • Hi Alan, its a great report, would it possible to share this report to me (isman.1326@gmail.com) thanks in advance
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  • Dear Alan its a great presentation about emerging trend of TV, OTT and telecom etc.. My i request you to pls. share this to me "sai@prefer2watch.com" it helps a lot as i trying my first maiden venture in OTT space
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  • Dear Alan, thank you for the great report sharing. It really helps to understand the changing TV market right now. I'm very interesting in getting pdf file, since I would like to cite it for my essay research, could you plaese send me a copy to pilimegans906@gmail.com ? Thank you so much.

    HANS
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Transcript of "Evolution Of Hybrid TV Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2"

  1. 1. ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT TV D EL I V E RY E VO LU TI O N: H Y BR ID TV, OV E R TH E TO P ( I N TER N E T) T V,A N D TV E V ERY WH E R E ( M U LTI -S C R EE N TV) . S TATU S R E PO RT AN DPRO J E C TIO NS 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 7© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT 2012
  2. 2. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012CONTENTSINTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 13EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 16SCOPE OF THIS REPORT .............................................................................................................. 16DEFINING HYBRID TV, TV EVERYWHERE (MULTI-SCREEN TV) AND INTERNET (OVER THETOP) TV ........................................................................................................................................ 17SIZING THE TV MARKET AND COUNTRY SPECIFIC ANALYSIS ................................................ 20TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS ............................................................................................... 24STB MARKET IN TRANSITION TO A FOCUS ON SOFTWARE ...................................................... 26IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ACROSS THE TV ECOSYSTEM ......................................................... 28FUTURE SCENARIOS 2009 AND 2012 ........................................................................................... 29LEARNING FROM HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES ................................................... 31LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES......................................... 33LEARNING FROM THE HYBRID TV SURVEY .............................................................................. 34LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE SURVEY ............................................................................ 36MAPPING THE OTT LANDSCAPE ................................................................................................ 37BATTLE ACROSS THE TV LANDSCAPE ....................................................................................... 39PERSONAL EXPERIENCE OF CUTTING THE CORD: THE LAUNCH AND INITIAL EXPERIENCES....................................................................................................................................................... 41LOOKING INTO THE LONG TERM ON INTERNET TV ................................................................. 41KEY POINTS FROM THE VIEWER SURVEY ................................................................................. 44RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................... 45RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PAYTV PROVIDERS ............................................................................. 45RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUPPLIERS............................................................................................ 47RECOMMENDATION FOR APPLICATION DEVELOPERS ................................................................... 48RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTORS ........................................................................................... 48A FINAL NOTE .............................................................................................................................. 49DEFINITIONS AND TV MARKET SIZES AND PROJECTIONS ...................................... 51DEFINITIONS OF HYBRID TV, TV EVERYWHERE AND INTERNET TV ...................................... 51SIZING THE TV MARKET.............................................................................................................. 54COUNTRY SPECIFIC TV DELIVERY MARKET REVIEW ............................................................. 57US MARKET REVIEW: THE MOST PROFITABLE TV MARKET IN THE WORLD .............................. 57TURKEY: ARCHETYPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST ................................................................................ 61BRAZIL: SELECTING ITS OWN DTT TECHNOLOGY GIVES SATELLITE AND CABLE AN EDGE ....... 63CHINA: TOO BIG TO IGNORE BUT POLITICS DOMINATES ............................................................. 65INDIA: CABLE STAGNATION AND SATELLITE TV GROWTH .......................................................... 67AUSTRALIA: DTT DONE RIGHT..................................................................................................... 69SUMMARIZING THE GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY ........................................................................... 70 2 OF 307
  3. 3. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012KEY TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS .......................................................................... 72HYBRID TV STANDARDIZATION ACTIVITIES ............................................................................. 72HYBRID BROADCAST BROADBAND TV (HBBTV) OVERVIEW................................................... 72MHEG-IC, GEM/MHP, AND HBBTV ........................................................................................ 74HBBTV ORGANIZATION AND DEPLOYMENT STATUS IN 2012.................................................. 75HBBTV SPECIFICATION OVERVIEW .......................................................................................... 76EBIF AND TRU2WAY.................................................................................................................... 81EBIF: CANOE IS DEAD LONG LIVE INTERACTIVE TV ................................................................... 81TRU2WAY ...................................................................................................................................... 83DVB-MHP (MULTIMEDIA HOME PLATFORM) AND GEM........................................................ 83WTVML: GREAT IDEA, BUT THE WORLD PASSED IT BY ......................................................... 84CE-HTML .................................................................................................................................... 85APPLICATION ENVIRONMENT AND APPLICATION STORES ....................................................... 86STB: TRANSITION TO A FOCUS ON SOFTWARE ........................................................................ 86TABLETS AND OTHER CONNECTED DEVICES ............................................................................ 88CONDITIONAL ACCESS SYSTEMS ................................................................................................ 88VERIZON CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIVE SERVICES ................................................................. 91NETFLIX AND THE ROLE OF APIS .............................................................................................. 93STB APIS AND THE PAYTV SILO CHALLENGE FOR INTERACTIVE SERVICES ........................ 95UNDERSTANDING THE TV ECOSYSTEM .......................................................................... 98PRODUCERS / DISTRIBUTORS AND STUDIOS ............................................................................... 99BROADCASTERS.......................................................................................................................... 100CABLE NETWORKS..................................................................................................................... 101ADVERTISERS ............................................................................................................................. 103CANOE VENTURES ....................................................................................................................... 105ADVERTISERS AND THE NETWORK PVR AND DISH’S HOPPER.................................................. 106PAYTV PROVIDERS .................................................................................................................... 107DEAL STRUCTURES .................................................................................................................... 108IMPERFECT COMPETITION AND THE BATTLE BETWEEN NETWORKS AND PAYTV .............. 109TELCO CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................. 110IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ACROSS THE ECOSYSTEM.............................................................. 111FUTURE SCENARIOS 2009 AND 2012 ......................................................................................... 112HYBRID TV AND TV EVERYWHERECASE STUDIES: TELCO / SATELLITE /CABLE / TERRESTRIAL........................................................................................................ 115HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES ............................................................................... 115AT&T HOMEZONE (DISCONTINUED SERVICE) ........................................................................... 115VERIZON FIOS ............................................................................................................................. 116Verizon Flex View: Multi-Screen TV ......................................................................................... 118Verizon FiOS Widgets ................................................................................................................ 119DIRECTV AND DISH ................................................................................................................... 120BT VISION ................................................................................................................................... 123Unclear Addressable Market ....................................................................................................... 124 3 OF 307
  4. 4. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Confused Consumer Proposition ................................................................................................. 124Unclear Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 125Intense Competition Across All Viewer Categories.................................................................... 125No Apps No Ecosystem .............................................................................................................. 125SKY ANYTIME+ .......................................................................................................................... 125ORANGE TV................................................................................................................................. 128CANAL+ LE CUBE ........................................................................................................................ 130DETSCHE TELEKOM T-ENTERTAIN.............................................................................................. 132TELECOM PORTUGAL MEO .......................................................................................................... 133TELEFONICA O2 CZECH REPUBLIC O2TV................................................................................... 135HANSENET ALICETV (NOW TELEFONICA O2)............................................................................ 136TELECOM ITALIA CUBOVISION ................................................................................................... 137JAZZTEL AND TELEFONICA ......................................................................................................... 138COMHEM ..................................................................................................................................... 139TELECOM NEW ZEALAND AND TIVO.......................................................................................... 140LEARNING FROM HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENTS ......................................................................... 141TV EVERYWHERE CASE STUDIES ............................................................................................. 142AT&T, USA ................................................................................................................................ 143BELGACOM, BELGIUM ................................................................................................................. 144BELL, CANADA ............................................................................................................................ 145BHARTI AIRTEL ........................................................................................................................... 145CABLEVISION, USA .................................................................................................................... 146CHARTER, USA ........................................................................................................................... 147CHINA TELECOM, CHINA ............................................................................................................. 148COMCAST, USA ........................................................................................................................... 149COX COMMUNICATIONS .............................................................................................................. 150DIRECTV, USA............................................................................................................................ 151DISH NETWORKS, USA................................................................................................................ 152MEDIASET, ITALY ........................................................................................................................ 153ORANGE, FRANCE ........................................................................................................................ 153ROGERS, CANADA ....................................................................................................................... 154ROMTEL, ROMANIA ..................................................................................................................... 155SFR, FRANCE ............................................................................................................................... 155SHAW, CANADA ........................................................................................................................... 155SK TELECOM ............................................................................................................................... 155SKY, GERMANY ........................................................................................................................... 156SKY NEW ZEALAND..................................................................................................................... 156SKY, UK ...................................................................................................................................... 156SWISSCOM ................................................................................................................................... 157TELECOM ITALIA, ........................................................................................................................ 157TERRATV .................................................................................................................................... 157TIME WARNER CABLE ................................................................................................................. 157VERIZON ...................................................................................................................................... 158LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE DEPLOYMENTS .............................................................. 159HYBRID TV, OTT TV, AND TV EVERYWHERE SURVEYS AND BUSINESS MODELS..................................................................................................................................................... 160 4 OF 307
  5. 5. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012DRIVERS FOR HYBRID TV FOR IPTV PROVIDERS ................................................................... 160DRIVERS FOR HYBRIDTV FOR SATELLITE TV PROVIDERS .................................................... 161BROADCASTER PARTNERSHIP? ................................................................................................. 161BUSINESS MODEL HYRID TV: IPTV PROVIDERS .................................................................. 162PAYTV OPERATOR HYBRID TV SURVEY ................................................................................. 162KEY POINTS FROM PAYTV OPERATOR HYBRID TV SURVEY ................................................ 170TV EVERYWHERE SURVEY........................................................................................................ 172INTERVIEWEES ............................................................................................................................. 172KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................. 172The are no longer TVE Content Rights Issues, Just Old Deals Playing Out ............................... 173TV Everywhere is NOT a well-defined solution category .......................................................... 174Incumbent Middleware Suppliers are Extending their Solutions into TVE ................................ 174TVE Packages and Services ........................................................................................................ 175Vendor Review ............................................................................................................................ 175KEY POINTS FROM THE TVE SURVEY ...................................................................................... 177OVER THE TOP PROVIDERS .............................................................................................. 178OVER THE TOP TV OPTIONS .................................................................................................... 178TRADITIONAL TV GOES ONLINE ............................................................................................... 181COMPARING UK OTT PROVIDERS ........................................................................................... 182BBC IPLAYER .............................................................................................................................. 182SKY GO (REPLACED SKY PLAYER) ............................................................................................. 184ITV PLAYER (WWW.ITV.COM/ITVPLAYER).................................................................................. 185Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 1854OD (4 ON DEMAND, WWW.CHANNEL4.COM/PROGRAMMES/4OD) ............................................. 187Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 187DEMAND FIVE.............................................................................................................................. 188Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 188YOUVIEW (PREVIOSULY PROJECT CANVAS) .............................................................................. 189Unclear Addressable Market ....................................................................................................... 190Confused Customer Proposition .................................................................................................. 190Unclear Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 190Intense Competition Across All Customer Segments ................................................................. 190No Apps No Ecosystem .............................................................................................................. 191TV MANUFACTURERS ................................................................................................................ 191SHARP .......................................................................................................................................... 192TOSHIBA ...................................................................................................................................... 192PANASONIC .................................................................................................................................. 194LG................................................................................................................................................ 194PHILIPS ELECTRONICS ................................................................................................................. 195SAMSUNG..................................................................................................................................... 195SONY ............................................................................................................................................ 196INTERNET TV AND BRINGING IT BACK TO THE TV.................................................................. 196BOXEE.......................................................................................................................................... 197TIVO ............................................................................................................................................ 198ROKU.......................................................................................................................................... 199CRACKLE ..................................................................................................................................... 200 5 OF 307
  6. 6. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012WALMART / VUDU ....................................................................................................................... 200APPLETV ..................................................................................................................................... 201AMAZON INSTANT VIDEO............................................................................................................ 202NETFLIX ....................................................................................................................................... 202GOOGLETV.................................................................................................................................. 203CUSTOMERS’ CRITICAL MATH ................................................................................................. 204MAPPING THE LANDSCAPE ........................................................................................................ 205SOCIAL NETWORKS AND TV ..................................................................................................... 206SOCIAL TV .................................................................................................................................. 207ONLINE TV NETWORKS............................................................................................................. 210HULU ........................................................................................................................................... 210ALSO RANS ................................................................................................................................. 211CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................ 211PRACTICAL EXPERIENCES OF CUTTING THE PAYTV CORD ................................. 214INITIALLY: A FAILURE TO LAUNCH ......................................................................................... 214REVIEWING THE OPTIONS: SERVICES...................................................................................... 215AMAZON ON DEMAND: NETFLIX AND HULU COMBINED (WITH FREE SHIPPING) ....................... 215Pricing for content not included in Prime .................................................................................... 215Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 216CRACKLE .................................................................................................................................. 217HBO GO ...................................................................................................................................... 217HULU: CATCH-UP TV .................................................................................................................. 218ITUNES AND APPLE TV................................................................................................................ 218LOVEFILM: EUROPE’S NETFLIX ................................................................................................ 218Pricing ......................................................................................................................................... 219NETFLIX: GOLD STATNDARD VOD ............................................................................................. 220SONY VIDEO STORE..................................................................................................................... 221VODDLER ..................................................................................................................................... 221WALMART / VUDU: HIGH QUALITY RENTAL SERVICE ............................................................... 222YOUTUBE / GOOGLE PLAY .......................................................................................................... 223COMPARING THE OPTIONS SIDE BY SIDE .................................................................................... 224REVIEWING THE OPTIONS: HARDWARE .................................................................................. 227APPLE TV: STEP TOO FAR INTO THE APPLE CHASM FOR ME ....................................................... 227BOXEE: ROLLS ROYCE SOLUTION, PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO GEEKY (AT THE MOMENT) .............. 227CONSOLES, SONY PS3 AND XBOX: BECAUSE THEY ARE THERE .................................................. 227GOOGLE TV: ONE TO WATCH ..................................................................................................... 227PC: ............................................................................................................................................... 228ROKU: SWEET CHEAP LITTLE DEVICE ......................................................................................... 228SMART TVS ................................................................................................................................. 228LG................................................................................................................................................ 229Panasonic ..................................................................................................................................... 229Samsung ...................................................................................................................................... 229Yahoo TV .................................................................................................................................... 229TABLETS ...................................................................................................................................... 229Android Tablets: Some Good Some Bad .................................................................................... 229Apple iPad: The Gold Standard................................................................................................... 230 6 OF 307
  7. 7. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Kindle Fire: Great Video Experience, Great Android App Recommendations .......................... 230Nook: Really for Books. .............................................................................................................. 230COMPARING THE OPTIONS ........................................................................................................ 230AND FINALLY THE LAUNCH AND INITIAL EXPERIENCES ....................................................... 231LOOKING INTO THE LONG TERM ON INTERNET TV ............................................................... 232VIEWER SURVEY ................................................................................................................... 235INTERVIEWEES ........................................................................................................................... 235RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 236WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF INTERNET TV SERVICES LIKE NETFLIX, HULU, LOVEFILM ? ............ 236ARE YOU CONSIDERING MOVING FROM YOUR CURRENT PAYTV PROVIDER TO INTERNETTV?.. 237WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF YOUR CURRENT PAYTV BILL? .............................................................. 238HAVE YOU HEARD OF TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV / TV APP (E.G. PAYTV ON YOURPHONE / IPAD)? ............................................................................................................................ 239IF YOU HAVE USED TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV WHAT WAS YOUR EXPERIENCE?.... 239WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM A TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV SERVICE .................... 240WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF YOUR PAYTV PROVIDERS ONDEMAND SERVICE? ................................ 241KEY POINTS FROM THE VIEWER SURVEY ............................................................................... 242RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................... 244RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PAYTV PROVIDERS ....................................................................... 244RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUPPLIERS ...................................................................................... 246RECOMMENDATION FOR APPLICATION DEVELOPERS ............................................................ 246RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTORS ...................................................................................... 247A FINAL NOTE ............................................................................................................................ 247APPENDIX 1. GEOGRAPHIC MARKET DATA ............................................................... 249AUSTRALIA: DTT DONE RIGHT ................................................................................................ 249BRAZIL ........................................................................................................................................ 252CANADA ...................................................................................................................................... 254CHINA.......................................................................................................................................... 256FRANCE ....................................................................................................................................... 258GERMANY ................................................................................................................................... 260INDIA ........................................................................................................................................... 263ITALY .......................................................................................................................................... 265JAPAN .......................................................................................................................................... 267MEXICO ...................................................................................................................................... 270RUSSIA ........................................................................................................................................ 272SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................. 274SOUTH AFRICA ........................................................................................................................... 276SWEDEN ...................................................................................................................................... 281TURKEY ...................................................................................................................................... 283UNITED KINGDOM ...................................................................................................................... 285UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ................................................................................................... 288 7 OF 307
  8. 8. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012APPENDIX 2: TV EVERYWHERE QUESTIONNAIRE .................................................... 293APPENDIX 3: SUMMARY OF THE ONLINE VIDEO SERVICES .................................. 295NORTH AMERICA ....................................................................................................................... 295AMAZON INSTANT VIDEO ......................................................................................................... 295APPLE TV .................................................................................................................................... 295BLOCKBUSTER ON DEMAND ....................................................................................................... 296BEST BUY, CINEMANOW ............................................................................................................. 296CRACKLE ..................................................................................................................................... 297HULU PLUS .................................................................................................................................. 297NETFLIX ....................................................................................................................................... 298WAL-MART VUDU ..................................................................................................................... 298HBO GO ...................................................................................................................................... 298REST OF THE WORLD................................................................................................................. 299ACETRAX (BOUGHT BY SKY) ...................................................................................................... 299BLINKBOX.................................................................................................................................... 299FILM2HOME................................................................................................................................. 299FILM4OD (FILMFLEX) ................................................................................................................. 299FILMISNOW ................................................................................................................................. 300LOVEFILM ................................................................................................................................. 300MAXDOME ................................................................................................................................... 302SF ANYTIME ................................................................................................................................ 302VIDEO FUTUR (GLOWRIA) ........................................................................................................... 302VIDEOLAND ................................................................................................................................. 302VODDLER .................................................................................................................................. 303APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY OF TERMS ............................................................................... 304 8 OF 307
  9. 9. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 TA BLE O F FI GU RE SFigure 1. Mapping the Hybrid TV Landscape ...............................................................................................19Figure 2. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable and Free Terrestrial) (Millions ofHouseholds) source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ..........................................................21Figure 3. Split between Pure and Hybrid TV Subscribers (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................21Figure 4. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Households (Millions) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................22Figure 5. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts .......................................................................27Figure 6. Rating Technology Impact on TV Ecosystem Members .................................................................29Figure 7. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2009 ...................................................30Figure 8. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2012 ..................................................31Figure 9. TV Everywhere Market Structure ..................................................................................................37Figure 10. Mapping the Internet TV on the TV Landscape ...........................................................................39Figure 11. Battle Across the TV Landscape .................................................................................................41Figure 12. Mapping the Hybrid TV Landscape .............................................................................................53Figure 13. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable and Free Terrestrial) (Millions)source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ...............................................................................55Figure 14. Split between Pure and Hybrid TV Subscribers (Millions) source Alan Quayle Business andService Development .....................................................................................................................................55Figure 15. Source Data for Figure 13 and Figure 14 (Millions of Households) ..........................................56Figure 16. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Households (Millions) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................56Figure 17. Source Data for Figure 16 (Millions of Households) ..................................................................56Figure 18. Breakdown of Netflix Subscribers (source Netflix) ......................................................................59Figure 19. USA TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................61Figure 20. Data for Figure 19 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................61Figure 21 Turkish TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................63Figure 22. Data for Figure 21 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................63Figure 23. Brazilian Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................65Figure 24. Data for Figure 23 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................65Figure 25. China Market Status and Projection (Millions of households) source Alan Quayle Business andService Development .....................................................................................................................................66Figure 26. Data for Figure 25 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................67Figure 27. India TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................68Figure 28. Data for Figure 27 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................68Figure 29. Australian TV Households by Platform (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................70Figure 30. Data for Figure 29 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................70Figure 31. HbbTV Overview (source HbbTV) ...............................................................................................77Figure 32. TV Services, Broadcast Applications and Broadcast Independent Applications .........................79Figure 33. Simplified EBIF Architecture .......................................................................................................81Figure 34. STB Breakdown by Number Deployed .........................................................................................87Figure 35. Content Security Table ................................................................................................................91Figure 36. Verizon’s STB interactive Technologies ......................................................................................92Figure 37. Verizon Architecture ....................................................................................................................92Figure 38. Verizon Widget Bazaar and Twitter Widget (source Verizon) .....................................................93Figure 39. Role of APIs in Netflix Business .................................................................................................94 9 OF 307
  10. 10. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 40. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts .....................................................................96Figure 41. TV Ecosystem ...............................................................................................................................99Figure 42. Measured Ad Spending in the US Q1 2012 compared to Q1 2011 (source Kantar Media) ......102Figure 43. TV Ad Spending in US (source Nielsen) ....................................................................................103Figure 44. Advertising Value Chain ............................................................................................................104Figure 45. Trend in PayTV Subscription and Advertising Revenues ..........................................................105Figure 46. Global Growth in PayTV (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................108Figure 47. Examples of Deal Structures in the Value Chain .......................................................................109Figure 48. Rating Technology Impact on TV Ecosystem Members .............................................................112Figure 49. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2009 ...............................................113Figure 50. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2012 ..............................................114Figure 51. Verizon FiOS Architecture and Migration Plan (source Verizon) ............................................117Figure 52. Verizon FiOS Customer Numbers (source Verizon) ..................................................................118Figure 53. Verizon MY FIOS App (source Verizon) ....................................................................................119Figure 54. FiOS TV Widgets (source Verizon) ............................................................................................120Figure 55. DirecTV Hybrid Set Top Box (source Verizon) .........................................................................121Figure 56. DISH Hopper (source Dish Networks) ......................................................................................122Figure 57. DISH DVR and SlingMedia (source Dish Networks) ................................................................123Figure 58. Sky Anytime+ (source Sky) ........................................................................................................126Figure 59. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................127Figure 60. Sky Go Experience (source Sky) ...............................................................................................127Figure 61. How OrangeTV Delivers on Service Ubiquity (source Orange)...............................................128Figure 62. Simplifying the Purchase decision – Regardless the customer will get OrangeTV (sourceOrange) .......................................................................................................................................................129Figure 63. Orange TV Subscribers (source France Telecom) ....................................................................130Figure 64. CanalSat Proposition (source CanalSat) ..................................................................................131Figure 65. O2TV Hybrid STB ADB-3800TW (source Telefonica) .............................................................136Figure 66. CuboVision WebTV Solution Topology (source Cisco) ............................................................138Figure 67. Belgacom’s TV Partout iPad Screen Shot (source Belgacom) ..................................................145Figure 68. CableVision’s TV To Go (source CableVision) .........................................................................147Figure 69. Xfinity Streampix (source Comcast) ..........................................................................................150Figure 70. DirecTV Anywhere (source DirecTV) ........................................................................................151Figure 71. DISH Remote Access Rating on Google Play (source Google Play) .........................................153Figure 72. SKT Hoppin Experience (source SKT) ......................................................................................155Figure 73. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................156Figure 74. Sky Go Experience (source Sky) ...............................................................................................157Figure 75. Verizon MY FIOS App (source Verizon) ....................................................................................158Figure 76. Geographic Distribution of Respondents for 2012 Survey Source Alan Quayle Business andService Development (Number of Respondents in brackets) .......................................................................163Figure 77. What are your drivers for Hybrid TV (2012 Survey)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................165Figure 78. What are your drivers for Hybrid TV (2009 Survey)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................165Figure 79. What are the Barriers to hybrid TV (2009)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................167Figure 80. What are the Barriers to hybrid TV (2012)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................168Figure 81. Applicability of Hybrid TV (2009 and 2012) Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................169Figure 82. Hybrid STB Vendor Comparison Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ......170Figure 83. TV Everywhere Interviews by Companies Interviewed ..............................................................172Figure 84. TV Everywhere Market Structure Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development .....173Figure 85. Scope of TV Everywhere Offers .................................................................................................174 10 OF 307
  11. 11. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 86. Example of how Existing Systems are Extended into TVE .........................................................175Figure 87. Vendor Perception Rating Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ................176Figure 88. Vendor Perception Rating and General Comments Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................176Figure 89. Plurality of OTT Options (Diagram is from 2009 to Highlight how Quickly Brands haveChanged in Dominance) ..............................................................................................................................179Figure 90. Trends in the Evolution of TV ....................................................................................................179Figure 91. TV Landscape ............................................................................................................................181Figure 92. BBC iPlayer Requests January through April 2012 (source BBC) ...........................................182Figure 93. BBC iPlayer Demographics January thru April 2012 (source BBC) ........................................183Figure 94. iPlayer Requests by Device Type (source BBC) .......................................................................183Figure 95. BBC iPlayer – use for TV by time of day, April 2012 (source BBC) ........................................184Figure 96. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................184Figure 97. Sky Go Experience ....................................................................................................................185Figure 98. Major Internet Services on TVs (source CNET) .......................................................................191Figure 99. Sharp SmartCentral UI (source Sharp) ....................................................................................192Figure 100. Toshiba’s Places Platform User Interface ...............................................................................193Figure 101. Panasonic Veira Connect (2012) UK Version (source Panasonic) .......................................194Figure 102. LG Smart Hub Experience (UK Version) ................................................................................195Figure 103 Online Video Content Properties Ranked by Unique Video Viewers May 2012 (sourcecomScore) ....................................................................................................................................................196Figure 104. Mapping the Internet TV on the TV Landscape Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................206Figure 105. TNO Field Trial (Source TNO) ................................................................................................207Figure 106. TNO Results (source TNO) ......................................................................................................208Figure 107. Commercial Opportunities Enabled by Social TV (Source TNO)............................................208Figure 108. Battle Across the TV Landscape .............................................................................................213Figure 109. Amazon Prime Eligible TV Shows (1801 Results, 475 HD and 1326 SD) ...............................216Figure 110. Amazon Prime Instant Video Movies (3347 items) ..................................................................216Figure 111. Amazon Video Content, 62,000 Instant Videos, and surprisingly 300k VHS tapes! ................217Figure 112. Netflix Just For Kids Web Interface (source Netflix) ...............................................................221Figure 113. YouTube’s Renaissance in part from its Channel Investment (source ComScore) ..................223Figure 114. Google Play Review (Source Google Play) .............................................................................224Figure 115. Comparison of Over The Top TV Services..............................................................................225Figure 116. Example OTT MLB.TV Offer (source MLB.tv) .......................................................................226Figure 117. MLB.TV Usage by Platform 2011 and 2012 ............................................................................226Figure 118. Google TV Remote (source LG) ...............................................................................................229Figure 119. Comparing Internet TV Service Coverage for Some of the Devices (Source The Verge) .......230Figure 120. Comparison Table of Internet TV Devices and Service Coverage (source The Verge) ...........231Figure 121. Geographic Distribution of Interviewees source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................235Figure 122. Household Status on Interviewees ...........................................................................................236Figure 123. What is your view of internet TV services like Netflix, Hulu, LOVEFiLM? ............................237Figure 124. Are you considering moving from your current payTV provider to Internet TV? ..................238Figure 125. What is your view of your current payTV bill? source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................238Figure 126. Have you heard of TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV (e.g. payTV on your phone / iPad)?Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ............................................................................239Figure 127. If you have used TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV what was your experience? Source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................240Figure 128. What do you expect from a TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV service ..................................240Figure 129. What is your view of your PayTV provider’s on-demand service? (Used Internet TV) sourceAlan Quayle Business and Service Development ........................................................................................241 11 OF 307
  12. 12. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 130. What is your view of your PayTV providers on-demand service? (Not used Internet TV) sourceAlan Quayle Business and Service Development ........................................................................................242Figure 131. Australian TV Households by Platform (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................250Figure 132. Data for Figure 131 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................251Figure 133. Brazilian Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................253Figure 134. Data for Figure 133 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................253Figure 135. Canadian TV Household Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................255Figure 136. Data for Figure 135 (Millions of Households) .......................................................................255Figure 137. China Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................257Figure 138. Data for Figure 137 .................................................................................................................257Figure 139. France TV Household Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................258Figure 140. Data for Figure 139 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................259Figure 141. German TV Households Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................261Figure 142. Data for Figure 141 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................262Figure 143. India TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................264Figure 144. Data for Figure 143 .................................................................................................................264Figure 145. Italy TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................265Figure 146. Data for Figure 145 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................266Figure 147. Japan TV Households Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................268Figure 148. Data for Figure 147 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................269Figure 149. Mexico TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................271Figure 150. Data for Figure 149 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................271Figure 151. Russian TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................273Figure 152. Data for Figure 151 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................273Figure 153. Singapore TV Household Status and Projections (Thousands of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................274Figure 154. Data for Figure 153 (Thousands of Households) ....................................................................275Figure 155. Republic of South Africa TV Households (millions) source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................280Figure 156. Data for Figure 155 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................280Figure 157. Swedish TV Households Status and Projections (Thousands of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................282Figure 158. Data for Figure 157 (Thousands of Households) ....................................................................282Figure 159 Turkish TV Household Status and Projections source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................284Figure 160. Data for Figure 159 .................................................................................................................284Figure 161. UK TV Household Market Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................287Figure 162. Data for Figure 161 .................................................................................................................287Figure 163. Breakdown of Netflix Subscribers (source Netflix) ..................................................................289Figure 164. USA TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................291Figure 165. Data for Figure 164 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................292 12 OF 307
  13. 13. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 I N T ROD U C T I ON The TV industry is going through a period of change more significant than the conversion fromanalog to digital, as significant as the creation of the industry itself when on 2 November 1936 theBBC began transmitting the worlds first public regular broadcast TV service from the VictorianAlexandra Palace in north London. In the conversion from analog to digital customers generallyperceived little change in the core TV service or service providers, perhaps a few more channels andthe availability of additional services like internet access, fixed voice, video on demand, andeventually High Definition TV and 3DTV. It’s important to view the current change from theperspective of the decades long cycle taken for analog to digital conversion. From a technology perspective the current change is stimulated by the convergence of theinternet that can now support adequate quality video services lessening the barrier to entry of anational TV distribution infrastructure and consumer electronics making video consumptionpervasive and on the customers’ terms; it is impacting the whole of the TV ecosystem. Viewers have new consumption options and new video service providers, e.g. a library of tens ofthousands of movies and shows available over the internet for only $8 per month with noadvertising. Viewers can watch their payTV service and recorded shows anywhere they take theirlaptops, tablets and smartphones (they are all computing devices just of different sizes) as long asthey have an internet connection. Content owners have created their own internet-based catch-upTV / VoD (Video on Demand) services, e.g. Hulu, HBO Go and BBC iPlayer. PayTV providershave rushed out partially formed TV Everywhere (multi-screen TV) offers. And hybrid TV hasrapidly become pervasive since the last version of this report was written in 2009 / 2010, e.g. mostsatellite TV providers in developed markets have adopted hybrid TV to support on-demand andinteractive services. The later changes of content providers’ support of new TV delivery models and provenconsumer demand and acceptance of those new TV delivery models are critical to why the currentchanges are more significant than the move from analog to digital. The whole of the TV ecosystemis changing, not one component of the ecosystem. This will in time enable Google, Apple, Netflix,Amazon, Facebook to become payTV competitors, not directly at first, rather capping expansion ofpayTV revenues, but in time competing more directly as viewer habits evolve. We are only at the start of the beginning of the change that the internet and consumerelectronics convergence will have on the TV industry; it will be a multi-decade-long change, just likethe conversion from analog to digital that is still ongoing. Only in 2012 did the number of digital TVhouseholds exceed the analog TV households in the world. This report takes a global view, analyzingwhat is happening outside North America as much as what is happening in North America. As anindependent consultant I have the fortune of not having a pay-master with an agenda to set; whetherthat is to sell a product, maintain a service provider’s stock price, or keep a group of major clientsoverpaying for projects. I consult with payTV providers, internet companies, and technologysuppliers around the world. I live in the North American market and will share my direct objectiveexperiences from being a consumer of bleeding-edge TV services as well as consulting around theworld on TV projects. This report is purposefully broad in scope to provide a reference text in the evolution of TVdelivery. OTT (Internet) TV cannot be viewed as a silo, it must be considered in the wider evolutionof the industry, and today OTT TV is generally consumed as a complement to traditional payTVservices, not as a substitute, this makes internet TV a latent threat. 13 OF 307
  14. 14. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 I have included the feedback provided by the over 17,000 readers of the old report written in2009/2010, and thank you all for the excellent feedback and guidance in creating this report. Theoverall structure of the report is divided into 4 sections: providing an understanding of the market;learning from real-world case studies and surveys of payTV providers’ views and plans;understanding what the end customer (viewer) is thinking; and then bringing it all together into aview on the future of TV delivery evolution and recommendations. The chapters are summarized here:  Understanding the TV Market: overall size, technologies, standards, and how the ecosystem works. o Definitions and TV Market sizing. Defining hybrid TV, TV everywhere (multi- screen TV) and Internet (Over The Top) TV. Providing the latest TV market data and projections from 2008 to 2017 across all TV platforms, i.e. terrestrial, satellite, cable, IPTV (DSL/fiber) and OTT. The market analysis is broken down to 17 specific countries, some of which are reviewed in the main body of the report as they exemplify particular regions or are simply interesting in their own right, while others are included in Appendix 1. o Key Technologies and Standards. Understanding the status of interactive services and Hybrid TV standardization, the role APIs (Application Program Interfaces) play for OTT TV providers, the role of conditional access systems in the multi-screen environment, and the challenge standards are causing in the traditional payTV industry in adequately reacting to the OTT threat. o Understanding the TV Ecosystem. Frank review across the producers, content owners, TV networks, payTV networks and advertisers. The TV ecosystem is complex and well-established; this is the dominant limiting factor on change. However, change will happen as the viewers are increasingly empowered by technology, but we change habits slowly as changing payTV provider is a household not individual decision.  Case Studies and Market Surveys o Hybrid TV, TV Everywhere, and OTT TV Case Studies. Reviewing the experiences of 16 Hybrid TV deployments including Orange TV, Verizon FiOS, BT Vision, JazzTel, and Telecom Italia CuboVision; and 25 TV Everywhere case studies including Bharti Airtel, China Telecom, DISH Networks, and TerraTV. o Results from 3 global surveys on Hybrid TV, OTT TV, TV Everywhere, and the future of the TV ecosystem. Sharing insights on business models, service plans, requirements, differences based on geographic region and operator type, and deployment experiences. o Detailed review of 44 Over the Top TV providers and enablers. 14 OF 307
  15. 15. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012  What the Viewers Think o My practical experiences in cutting the payTV cord, and personal review of OTT services. o Viewer Survey. What customers are really thinking in North America and Western Europe about what is happening to their TV service?  The Future of TV Delivery and recommendations. This report brings together work performed on TV everywhere, hybrid TV, OTT TV, andservice innovation in the payTV space through over 900 operator, regulator, viewer and supplierinterviews and online questionnaires, gathering information on deployment experiences, marketrequirements, competitive landscape, and technology trends. In particular the market sizing data isbased on actual regulator, operator and supplier figures / projections; not conjecture from out ofmarket analysts. 15 OF 307
  16. 16. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY The current changes the TV industry is undergoing are more significant than the conversionfrom analog to digital, as significant as the creation of the industry. From a technology perspectivethe current change is stimulated by the convergence of the internet that can now support adequatequality video services lessening the entry barrier created by a national TV distribution network, andconsumer electronics that has made video consumption pervasive and empowered the viewers; thischange is impacting the whole of the TV ecosystem. Viewers have new TV consumption options and new service providers, e.g. a library of tens ofthousands of movies and shows available over the internet for only $8 per month with no advertisingfrom Netflix. Viewers can watch their payTV service and recorded shows anywhere they take theirlaptops, tablets and smartphones. Content owners have created their own internet-based catch-upTV / VoD (Video on Demand) services, e.g. Hulu, HBO Go and BBC iPlayer. PayTV providershave rushed out partially formed TV Everywhere (multi-screen TV) offers. Hybrid TV has rapidlybecome pervasive since the last version of this report was written in 2009 / 2010. However, we are only at the start of the beginning of the change that the convergence of theinternet and consumer electronics will have on the TV industry; it will be a multi-decade-longchange, just like the conversion from analog to digital that is still ongoing. The changes in contentprovider support of new delivery models and proven consumer demand / acceptance of those newdelivery models are critical to why the current change is more significant than the move from analogto digital; the whole TV ecosystem is changing, not just one component. This report takes a global view, analyzing what is happening outside North America as much aswhat is happening in North America. As an independent consultant I have the fortune of not havinga pay-master with an agenda to set; whether that is to sell a product, maintain a service provider’sstock price, or keep a group of major clients overpaying for projects. I consult with payTVproviders, internet companies, and technology suppliers around the world. I live in the NorthAmerican market and share my direct objective experiences from being a consumer of bleeding-edgeTV services as well as consulting around the world on TV projects. SCOPE OF THIS REPORT The overall structure of the report is divided into 4 sections: providing an understanding of theTV market’s recent history, current status and projections from 2008 to 2017; learning from real-world case studies and surveys; understanding what the viewer is thinking; and then bringing it alltogether into a view on the future of TV delivery and specific recommendations throughout thereport. The global TV market analysis examines the breakdown of households’ primary viewingplatforms: Terrestrial, Cable, Satellite, IPTV (IP Television), and OTT (Over The Top); across analogand digital; and hybrid and non-hybrid TV. The global analysis is then broken down into 17 countryspecific analyses providing a summary of TV households’ primary viewing platform trends from2008 to 2017 for interesting markets around the world. The 17 markets reviewed include: Australia,Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, South Africa,Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and the USA. Hybrid TV case studies (16 in total) including: AT&T HomeZone (discontinued service),Verizon FiOS, DirecTV, DISH Networks, BT Vision, Sky UK, Orange TV, Canal+ Le Cube, 16 OF 307
  17. 17. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Deustche Telekom T-Entertain, Telecom Portugal Meo, Telefonica O2 Czech Republic O2TV,Hansenet Alice TV (now Telefonica O2), Telecom Italia CuboVision, JazzTel and Telefonica (Spain),Comhem, and Telecom New Zealand and TiVo. TV everywhere case studies (25 in total) including: AT&T, Belgacom, Bell Canada, Bharti Airtel,Cablevision, Charter, China Telecom, Comcast, Cox Communications, DirecTV, DISH Networks,Mediaset, Orange, Rogers, Romtel, SFR, Shaw, SK Telecom, Sky Germany, Sky New Zealand, SkyUK, Swisscom, Telecom Italia, TerraTV, and Time Warner Cable. OTT market analysis (44 in total) across: 4OD, Amazon Instant Video, Apple TV, BBC iPlayer,Blockbuster on Demand, Best Buy CinemaNow, Consoles (PS3 and xbox), Crackle, Demand Five,Google TV, Hulu Plus, ITV Player, Netflix, Wal-Mart Vudu, HBO Go, Acetrax (bought by Sky),Blinkbox, Film2home, Film4OD, Filmisnow, LOVEFiLM, Maxdome, Roku, Smart TVs (LG,Panasonic, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, Toshiba), Sky Go, Sony Video Store on PS3, SF Anytime,Tablets (iPad, Android, Kindle Fire, Nook) Video Futur (Glowria), Videoland, Voddler, Yahoo TV,and YouView. Four surveys across the TV Ecosystem:  Hybrid TV survey: January to May 2012 a survey of 75 hybrid TV operators was undertaken across IPTV (DSL), Satellite, Cable / FTTH (Fiber To The Home) and Broadcast. The results of this survey are compared to that of a 2009 survey shown in the previous version of this report. The 2009 survey was conducted in September and October 2009 across 82 hybrid TV operators, generally IPTV (DSL) operators.  TV Everywhere Survey: A survey was conducted between April and June 2012 of PayTV providers around the world on their TV Everywhere plans. Interviewees included 75 operators and 11 content providers / studios, with a total of 97 people interviewed (multiple representatives from some operators). They were all responsible for TV Everywhere services, and generally VP level or above. Most either know me, or were introduced through a friend so most conversations were frank and open.  Future of TV Survey: Global survey across 81 members of the TV ecosystem during the summer of 2012, June-August. This is also compared to a similar survey undertaken in 2009.  Viewer Survey: 241 payTV viewers in North America and Western Europe, across a range of geo-demographic profiles. Viewers were interviewed over the phone, or completed an online survey during May 2012, with follow-up questions in June 2012. DEFINING HYBRID TV, TV EVERYWHERE (MULTI-SCREEN TV) AND INTERNET (OVER THE TOP) TV Hybrid TV is not new; it’s been within the industry’s lexicon for many years. Back in 2004hybrid TV was shown in many presentations as part of the payTV industry’s set top box (STB)roadmap. The transition should not be a surprise, however, for many executives the shift to hybridTV has been a quiet revolution. Especially given two of the telco industry’s most successful TVdeployments, Verizon FiOS (4.5M customers in Q2 2012) and Orange TV (4.7M customers in Q22012), are both hybrid TV, more specifically Hybrid Broadcast Broadband (HBB) TV. CurrentlyHybrid TV STBs account for about 13% of all TV households in 2012, and are expected to reach36% by all TV households 2017. 17 OF 307
  18. 18. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 Hybrid TV is the delivery of a TV service through both broadcast and IP, for example manyEuropean telcos payTV services use both the free to air digital terrestrial TV (DTT) for broadcastservices complemented by a network-centric IPTV services over a managed IP network (e.g. BTVision) or a network-agnostic service over the internet / unmanaged IP network (e.g. TelecomItalia’s CuboVision.) BT Vision and Telecom Italia’s CuboVision demonstrate the two main categories of hybrid TV:  HBB TV (Hybrid Broadcast Broadband) is defined by the presence of a hybrid STB that is part IPTV, using a managed IP network; and part broadcast, receiving the broadcast digital content from a non-IP service like Digital Terrestrial, Digital Cable, or Digital Satellite.  HBI TV (Hybrid Broadcast Internet) is defined by the presence of a hybrid STB that is part IPTV, using the internet (unmanaged IP network); and part broadcast, receiving the broadcast digital content from a non-IP service like Digital Terrestrial, Digital Cable, or Digital Satellite. This is also referred to as Telco OTT (Over The Top) TV. Related TV delivery categories include:  Telco TV or pure IPTV is defined by a STB that only receives and displays video over a ‘managed IP’ network, also called network-centric TV. AT&T U-verse is an example of such a pure IPTV deployment.  Internet TV or Over-The-Top (OTT) TV only uses the Internet to transport video over an unmanaged IP access network connection. Examples include Netflix, Hulu Plus and Amazon Instant Video on a Roku device; it is also termed network-agnostic TV. With the basic HBB and HBI definitions explained, let’s now go a little deeper, Figure 1 showsthe hybrid TV landscape, it sits at the intersections between Broadcast TV, Network-Centric TV andNetwork-Agnostic TV:  Broadcast is the traditional delivery mechanisms of Satellite, Cable and Terrestrial (over the air);  Network centric is Telco IPTV; and  Network agnostic is OTT or Internet TV. At the intersections of these delivery mechanisms resides hybrid TV. At the intersection of Broadcast and Network Centric (termed HBB, Hybrid BroadcastBroadband) lies:  Hybrid Telco is the combination of Digital Terrestrial TV and IPTV, e.g. BT Vision;  Hybrid Cable is the combination of Cable TV and IPTV, e.g. Verizon FiOS; and  Hybrid Satellite is the combination of Satellite and IPTV, e.g. Orange TV. 18 OF 307
  19. 19. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 At the intersection between Broadcast and Network-Agnostic is the HBI TV category:Terrestrial / Satellite + OTT. Examples include Canal+ Le Cube, and TI’s CuboVision. The finalintersection is between network-centric and network-agnostic, which though technically feasible isnot yet a focus of any business model. Figure 1. Mapping the Hybrid TV Landscape Broadcast Network-Centric One way Cable Hybrid Telco Terrestrial TV (Terrestrial + IPTV) Telco IPTV Hybrid Cable Satellite TV (Cable + IPTV) Hybrid Satellite (Satellite + IPTV) Terrestrial / Satellite + Telco / Cable OTT + OTT Over The Top (OTT) TV (Internet TV) Network-Agnostic A focus of many payTV operators since the previous version of this report was written is TVEverywhere, enabling a subscriber to receive their service on a PC, tablet, smartphone, or gamesconsole, in addition to the STB connected to a TV. To devices other than the STB, the service isgenerally delivered over unmanaged IP, examples of such services include Sky Go and DISH TVEverywhere. A broadcast TV provider delivering a video service to the customer’s PC over theinternet is not considered hybrid TV. The hybrid TV definition focuses upon the STB, the corepayTV service customers buy and view on their TVs in the home via a STB, not ancillary servicessuch as TV Everywhere. The difference between TV Everywhere and Internet TV is not a technology difference, rather abusiness model difference. For TV Everywhere, a payTV provider is supplying a traditionalbroadcast payTV service via a STB to a TV and offers those existing subscribers a TV Everywhereservice to receive generally a subset of their subscribed TV service via other devices like PCs, tablets,smartphones and games consoles, generally through an application or client downloaded to thedevice. The payTV provider can also offer a pure internet TV service to customers that do not 19 OF 307
  20. 20. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012subscribe to its broadcast payTV service, like Sky Go, and will charge those subscribers for just theinternet TV service. Then there are the purely internet based providers like Netflix / Hulu /Amazon Instant Video that offer their service only over the internet, and do not operate a nationalbroadcast TV network, their service is termed Internet TV or Over The Top TV. The term TV Everywhere has been a cause of frustration for customers as device coverage,channel availability, and physical restrictions, e.g. only available in the home, have resulted in theterm TV Everywhere to be considered a joke. The term multi-screen TV is also used to avoidcreating customer expectations that cannot be met, or simply offering the payTV provider’s Apps fordevices, and not attaching a particular name to the service, as it can cover EPG (Electronic ProgramGuide), DVR (Digital Video Recorder) controls, account management as well as a streaming TVservice. Though as we will see in the case studies, providers like DISH Networks are delivering a fullTV Everywhere service to their customers. SIZING THE TV MARKET AND COUNTRY SPECIFIC ANALYSIS The Telco TV (IPTV) market, though growing, remains less than 8% of the total TV market bynumber of households through to 2017, as shown in Figure 2, data based on Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development estimates from a bottom-up build from each country to the global figures.However, as cable, terrestrial and satellite providers are increasingly going hybrid, as predicted in theearlier version of this report, a hybrid TV solution opens up a far broader market opportunity, seeFigure 3. There are about 110M hybrid TV households today (2012), growing to 530M sub by 2017. The TV market is predicted to reach 1.57B households in 2017, compared to telco IPTV of110M subs in 2017. The addressable market for hybrid TV is potentially vast, we estimate 530Msubscribers in 2017. My point here is simply to highlight that the hybrid TV market is much biggerthan just Telco TV, and we’ve seen it become a core component of most payTV strategies in the past3 years. However, as we’ll discuss in this report, TV delivery evolution is moving fast, and TVEverywhere / Internet TV have become equally as important to payTV providers. We must also not forget that there is an important trend underlying the move to Hybrid TV,which is the migration from analog to digital TV. Western markets take for granted that globally itwas in 2012 we finally had more digital TV than analog TV households, shown in Figure 4. Asmentioned in the Introduction section the analog to digital transition has been a multi-decade longchange, it is still ongoing, and we similarly cannot expect the change stimulated by the convergenceof internet and consumer electronics to impact the well-established TV ecosystem any faster,critically people’s habits change slowly especially when is it a household (group) decision, henceexisting infrastructure and ecosystems are resistant to disruptive change. 20 OF 307
  21. 21. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 2. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable and Free Terrestrial) (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development Figure 3. Split between Pure and Hybrid TV Subscribers (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development 21 OF 307
  22. 22. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 Figure 4. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Households (Millions) source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development At the request of many readers of the previous version of this report I have in Appendix 1provided analysis of some of the markets that make up these aggregate figures shown in the globalmarket analysis, based on my experience in those markets. The aim is to provide a deeper dive intothe regional numbers and understand the different trajectories of TV delivery evolution. The 17markets reviewed in Appendix 1 include: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India,Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and theUSA. These countries are shown as they presented good regional case studies and I have completedprojects focused on those countries so have gathered detailed and verified market data. The data was collected from interviews with the main TV providers in those markets, gatheringtheir opinions on the trends impacting their market and their subscriber projections. As you wouldimagine, aggregating the household projections across all service providers in a country often resultsin more households than exist in that country. So regulator and supplier interviews were essential tonormalize the numbers both for 2011/2012 as well as the projections through to 2017. OTT remains a secondary viewing option through the period of the projections to 2017, thoughas a secondary viewing option it will become dominant, exceeding FTA (Free To Air) in manymarkets, reaching perhaps 67% of payTV households in the US, and likely 50% of WesternEuropean households by 2017. Other markets will vary principally on penetration and capacity ofbroadband in that country. The markets discussed in Appendix 1 vary significantly; the US model will not be adoptedwholesale, rather adapted to specific country situations. For example payTV domination is not theend state for many countries, and internet TV will take over one decade to make an entrance intosome markets as a primary viewing option. 22 OF 307
  23. 23. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 The UK often seen as a close follower to the US market is taking a different course to the USA.The broadcasters are not combining forces into a “Hulu-like” entity, rather delivering their contentdirect across multiple platforms. FTA (Free To Air) will remain as equally adopted as payTV fromSatellite and Cable in the UK market, through Netflix and Amazon (LOVEFiLM) will likely emulatetheir US success in the UK and cap on-demand and other interactive TV service revenues for thepayTV providers. China will remain Chinese TV, a relatively closed market to many suppliers and serviceproviders, though increasingly a key market for content owners (the studios) to sell their “approved”content through Chinese online stores and Apple iTunes which has done well in navigating thehurdles of operating in China, unlike say Google. In many markets the conversion from analog to digital FTA has prompted customers to move topayTV as we’ve seen in Brazil, Turkey and India. Viewers needed to do something because of thetransition, so they evaluated their options and generally selected the broader offer of payTV, and inmany emerging markets the dominant choice is Satellite TV, hence the dominance of HBI in thehybrid TV projections shown in Figure 3. Analog TV will remain with us in 2017; the TV world will not be completely digitized. The lackof broadband infrastructure in many emerging markets will also limit the adoption of hybrid TV andOTT TV. As stated in the introduction, the impact of the convergence of internet and consumerelectronics on TV will be a multi-decade transition, the US model will not be simply copied aroundthe world as was generally the case with the internet. TV is highly regulated which makes it highly political. And as is often the case in such politicalsituations, delays in regulations often have the reverse impact of the regulation’s intention as natureabhors a vacuum, so delays or self-focused technology choices that result in higher STB costs meanFTA adoption is falling in the transition to digital as seen in most markets around the world, or insome cases failing to take off with the growing prosperity of a nation. However, there are exceptionssuch as Australia which have managed the transition to digital terrestrial TV well. Cable, IPTV, Satellite will remain with us, though will see significant shifts in some markets, forexample the growth of advertising supported satellite TV in emerging markets. Simplicity and easeof use are critical; a payTV bundle makes it easy. OTT TV in emulating the existing TVconsumption experience is not simple, nor easy; OTT TV requires viewers to adopt a differentconsumption model. The growth of DVRs in STBs (70% penetration for Sky UK subscribers) iseducating customers that they can watch what they want when they want, which is the first steptoward a self-selected consumption model, think of it as a stepping stone towards OTT TV. Butsuch changes in TV viewing habits are slow, both for individuals, households and the overall market. Given the diversity of TV markets around the world, it’s difficult to provide an adequate overallsummary. However, for suppliers and content owners alike this diversity makes their strategies morecomplex and critically dependent on local market factors. The biggest mistake to make is to assumethat because a product or content in one market works well, it will work in other markets equally aswell. The countries studied in this report provide a solid framework upon which a global plan can bebuilt. 23 OF 307

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