ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE             DEVELOPMENT        TV D EL I V E RY         E VO LU TI O N:          H Y BR I...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012CONTENTSINTRODUCTION ...................................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012KEY TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS .........................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Confused Consumer Proposition ..........................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012DRIVERS FOR HYBRID TV FOR IPTV PROVIDERS ...............................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012WALMART / VUDU .........................................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Kindle Fire: Great Video Experience, Great Android App Recommendation...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012APPENDIX 2: TV EVERYWHERE QUESTIONNAIRE ................................
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012                                TA BLE O F FI GU RE SFigure 1. Mappin...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 40. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts ...............
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 86. Example of how Existing Systems are Extended into TVE .......
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 130. What is your view of your PayTV providers on-demand servi...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012                                        I N T ROD U C T I ON    The T...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012    I have included the feedback provided by the over 17,000 readers ...
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012       What the Viewers Think            o    My practical experienc...
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Evolution of Hybrid TV, Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2 Tables of Contents and Introduction

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Check out my weblog for more information on this report: http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2012/09/updated-report-tv-delivery-evo.html

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Evolution of Hybrid TV, Over The Top (Internet) TV and TV Everywhere Issue 2 Tables of Contents and Introduction

  1. 1. ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT TV D EL I V E RY E VO LU TI O N: H Y BR ID TV, OV E R TH E TO P ( I N TER N E T) T V,A N D TV E V ERY WH E R E ( M U LTI -S C R EE N TV) . S TATU S R E PO RT AN DPRO J E C TIO NS 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 7© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT 2012
  2. 2. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012CONTENTSINTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 13EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 16SCOPE OF THIS REPORT .............................................................................................................. 16DEFINING HYBRID TV, TV EVERYWHERE (MULTI-SCREEN TV) AND INTERNET (OVER THETOP) TV ........................................................................................................................................ 17SIZING THE TV MARKET AND COUNTRY SPECIFIC ANALYSIS ................................................ 20TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS ............................................................................................... 24STB MARKET IN TRANSITION TO A FOCUS ON SOFTWARE ...................................................... 26IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ACROSS THE TV ECOSYSTEM ......................................................... 28FUTURE SCENARIOS 2009 AND 2012 ........................................................................................... 29LEARNING FROM HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES ................................................... 31LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES......................................... 33LEARNING FROM THE HYBRID TV SURVEY .............................................................................. 34LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE SURVEY ............................................................................ 36MAPPING THE OTT LANDSCAPE ................................................................................................ 37BATTLE ACROSS THE TV LANDSCAPE ....................................................................................... 39PERSONAL EXPERIENCE OF CUTTING THE CORD: THE LAUNCH AND INITIAL EXPERIENCES....................................................................................................................................................... 41LOOKING INTO THE LONG TERM ON INTERNET TV ................................................................. 41KEY POINTS FROM THE VIEWER SURVEY ................................................................................. 44RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................... 45RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PAYTV PROVIDERS ............................................................................. 45RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUPPLIERS............................................................................................ 47RECOMMENDATION FOR APPLICATION DEVELOPERS ................................................................... 48RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTORS ........................................................................................... 48A FINAL NOTE .............................................................................................................................. 49DEFINITIONS AND TV MARKET SIZES AND PROJECTIONS ...................................... 51DEFINITIONS OF HYBRID TV, TV EVERYWHERE AND INTERNET TV ...................................... 51SIZING THE TV MARKET.............................................................................................................. 54COUNTRY SPECIFIC TV DELIVERY MARKET REVIEW ............................................................. 57US MARKET REVIEW: THE MOST PROFITABLE TV MARKET IN THE WORLD .............................. 57TURKEY: ARCHETYPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST ................................................................................ 61BRAZIL: SELECTING ITS OWN DTT TECHNOLOGY GIVES SATELLITE AND CABLE AN EDGE ....... 63CHINA: TOO BIG TO IGNORE BUT POLITICS DOMINATES ............................................................. 65INDIA: CABLE STAGNATION AND SATELLITE TV GROWTH .......................................................... 67AUSTRALIA: DTT DONE RIGHT..................................................................................................... 69SUMMARIZING THE GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY ........................................................................... 70 2 OF 307
  3. 3. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012KEY TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS .......................................................................... 72HYBRID TV STANDARDIZATION ACTIVITIES ............................................................................. 72HYBRID BROADCAST BROADBAND TV (HBBTV) OVERVIEW................................................... 72MHEG-IC, GEM/MHP, AND HBBTV ........................................................................................ 74HBBTV ORGANIZATION AND DEPLOYMENT STATUS IN 2012.................................................. 75HBBTV SPECIFICATION OVERVIEW .......................................................................................... 76EBIF AND TRU2WAY.................................................................................................................... 81EBIF: CANOE IS DEAD LONG LIVE INTERACTIVE TV ................................................................... 81TRU2WAY ...................................................................................................................................... 83DVB-MHP (MULTIMEDIA HOME PLATFORM) AND GEM........................................................ 83WTVML: GREAT IDEA, BUT THE WORLD PASSED IT BY ......................................................... 84CE-HTML .................................................................................................................................... 85APPLICATION ENVIRONMENT AND APPLICATION STORES ....................................................... 86STB: TRANSITION TO A FOCUS ON SOFTWARE ........................................................................ 86TABLETS AND OTHER CONNECTED DEVICES ............................................................................ 88CONDITIONAL ACCESS SYSTEMS ................................................................................................ 88VERIZON CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIVE SERVICES ................................................................. 91NETFLIX AND THE ROLE OF APIS .............................................................................................. 93STB APIS AND THE PAYTV SILO CHALLENGE FOR INTERACTIVE SERVICES ........................ 95UNDERSTANDING THE TV ECOSYSTEM .......................................................................... 98PRODUCERS / DISTRIBUTORS AND STUDIOS ............................................................................... 99BROADCASTERS.......................................................................................................................... 100CABLE NETWORKS..................................................................................................................... 101ADVERTISERS ............................................................................................................................. 103CANOE VENTURES ....................................................................................................................... 105ADVERTISERS AND THE NETWORK PVR AND DISH’S HOPPER.................................................. 106PAYTV PROVIDERS .................................................................................................................... 107DEAL STRUCTURES .................................................................................................................... 108IMPERFECT COMPETITION AND THE BATTLE BETWEEN NETWORKS AND PAYTV .............. 109TELCO CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................. 110IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ACROSS THE ECOSYSTEM.............................................................. 111FUTURE SCENARIOS 2009 AND 2012 ......................................................................................... 112HYBRID TV AND TV EVERYWHERECASE STUDIES: TELCO / SATELLITE /CABLE / TERRESTRIAL........................................................................................................ 115HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENT CASE STUDIES ............................................................................... 115AT&T HOMEZONE (DISCONTINUED SERVICE) ........................................................................... 115VERIZON FIOS ............................................................................................................................. 116Verizon Flex View: Multi-Screen TV ......................................................................................... 118Verizon FiOS Widgets ................................................................................................................ 119DIRECTV AND DISH ................................................................................................................... 120BT VISION ................................................................................................................................... 123Unclear Addressable Market ....................................................................................................... 124 3 OF 307
  4. 4. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Confused Consumer Proposition ................................................................................................. 124Unclear Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 125Intense Competition Across All Viewer Categories.................................................................... 125No Apps No Ecosystem .............................................................................................................. 125SKY ANYTIME+ .......................................................................................................................... 125ORANGE TV................................................................................................................................. 128CANAL+ LE CUBE ........................................................................................................................ 130DETSCHE TELEKOM T-ENTERTAIN.............................................................................................. 132TELECOM PORTUGAL MEO .......................................................................................................... 133TELEFONICA O2 CZECH REPUBLIC O2TV................................................................................... 135HANSENET ALICETV (NOW TELEFONICA O2)............................................................................ 136TELECOM ITALIA CUBOVISION ................................................................................................... 137JAZZTEL AND TELEFONICA ......................................................................................................... 138COMHEM ..................................................................................................................................... 139TELECOM NEW ZEALAND AND TIVO.......................................................................................... 140LEARNING FROM HYBRID TV DEPLOYMENTS ......................................................................... 141TV EVERYWHERE CASE STUDIES ............................................................................................. 142AT&T, USA ................................................................................................................................ 143BELGACOM, BELGIUM ................................................................................................................. 144BELL, CANADA ............................................................................................................................ 145BHARTI AIRTEL ........................................................................................................................... 145CABLEVISION, USA .................................................................................................................... 146CHARTER, USA ........................................................................................................................... 147CHINA TELECOM, CHINA ............................................................................................................. 148COMCAST, USA ........................................................................................................................... 149COX COMMUNICATIONS .............................................................................................................. 150DIRECTV, USA............................................................................................................................ 151DISH NETWORKS, USA................................................................................................................ 152MEDIASET, ITALY ........................................................................................................................ 153ORANGE, FRANCE ........................................................................................................................ 153ROGERS, CANADA ....................................................................................................................... 154ROMTEL, ROMANIA ..................................................................................................................... 155SFR, FRANCE ............................................................................................................................... 155SHAW, CANADA ........................................................................................................................... 155SK TELECOM ............................................................................................................................... 155SKY, GERMANY ........................................................................................................................... 156SKY NEW ZEALAND..................................................................................................................... 156SKY, UK ...................................................................................................................................... 156SWISSCOM ................................................................................................................................... 157TELECOM ITALIA, ........................................................................................................................ 157TERRATV .................................................................................................................................... 157TIME WARNER CABLE ................................................................................................................. 157VERIZON ...................................................................................................................................... 158LEARNING FROM TV EVERYWHERE DEPLOYMENTS .............................................................. 159HYBRID TV, OTT TV, AND TV EVERYWHERE SURVEYS AND BUSINESS MODELS..................................................................................................................................................... 160 4 OF 307
  5. 5. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012DRIVERS FOR HYBRID TV FOR IPTV PROVIDERS ................................................................... 160DRIVERS FOR HYBRIDTV FOR SATELLITE TV PROVIDERS .................................................... 161BROADCASTER PARTNERSHIP? ................................................................................................. 161BUSINESS MODEL HYRID TV: IPTV PROVIDERS .................................................................. 162PAYTV OPERATOR HYBRID TV SURVEY ................................................................................. 162KEY POINTS FROM PAYTV OPERATOR HYBRID TV SURVEY ................................................ 170TV EVERYWHERE SURVEY........................................................................................................ 172INTERVIEWEES ............................................................................................................................. 172KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................. 172The are no longer TVE Content Rights Issues, Just Old Deals Playing Out ............................... 173TV Everywhere is NOT a well-defined solution category .......................................................... 174Incumbent Middleware Suppliers are Extending their Solutions into TVE ................................ 174TVE Packages and Services ........................................................................................................ 175Vendor Review ............................................................................................................................ 175KEY POINTS FROM THE TVE SURVEY ...................................................................................... 177OVER THE TOP PROVIDERS .............................................................................................. 178OVER THE TOP TV OPTIONS .................................................................................................... 178TRADITIONAL TV GOES ONLINE ............................................................................................... 181COMPARING UK OTT PROVIDERS ........................................................................................... 182BBC IPLAYER .............................................................................................................................. 182SKY GO (REPLACED SKY PLAYER) ............................................................................................. 184ITV PLAYER (WWW.ITV.COM/ITVPLAYER).................................................................................. 185Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 1854OD (4 ON DEMAND, WWW.CHANNEL4.COM/PROGRAMMES/4OD) ............................................. 187Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 187DEMAND FIVE.............................................................................................................................. 188Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 188YOUVIEW (PREVIOSULY PROJECT CANVAS) .............................................................................. 189Unclear Addressable Market ....................................................................................................... 190Confused Customer Proposition .................................................................................................. 190Unclear Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 190Intense Competition Across All Customer Segments ................................................................. 190No Apps No Ecosystem .............................................................................................................. 191TV MANUFACTURERS ................................................................................................................ 191SHARP .......................................................................................................................................... 192TOSHIBA ...................................................................................................................................... 192PANASONIC .................................................................................................................................. 194LG................................................................................................................................................ 194PHILIPS ELECTRONICS ................................................................................................................. 195SAMSUNG..................................................................................................................................... 195SONY ............................................................................................................................................ 196INTERNET TV AND BRINGING IT BACK TO THE TV.................................................................. 196BOXEE.......................................................................................................................................... 197TIVO ............................................................................................................................................ 198ROKU.......................................................................................................................................... 199CRACKLE ..................................................................................................................................... 200 5 OF 307
  6. 6. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012WALMART / VUDU ....................................................................................................................... 200APPLETV ..................................................................................................................................... 201AMAZON INSTANT VIDEO............................................................................................................ 202NETFLIX ....................................................................................................................................... 202GOOGLETV.................................................................................................................................. 203CUSTOMERS’ CRITICAL MATH ................................................................................................. 204MAPPING THE LANDSCAPE ........................................................................................................ 205SOCIAL NETWORKS AND TV ..................................................................................................... 206SOCIAL TV .................................................................................................................................. 207ONLINE TV NETWORKS............................................................................................................. 210HULU ........................................................................................................................................... 210ALSO RANS ................................................................................................................................. 211CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................ 211PRACTICAL EXPERIENCES OF CUTTING THE PAYTV CORD ................................. 214INITIALLY: A FAILURE TO LAUNCH ......................................................................................... 214REVIEWING THE OPTIONS: SERVICES...................................................................................... 215AMAZON ON DEMAND: NETFLIX AND HULU COMBINED (WITH FREE SHIPPING) ....................... 215Pricing for content not included in Prime .................................................................................... 215Platform Availability ................................................................................................................... 216CRACKLE .................................................................................................................................. 217HBO GO ...................................................................................................................................... 217HULU: CATCH-UP TV .................................................................................................................. 218ITUNES AND APPLE TV................................................................................................................ 218LOVEFILM: EUROPE’S NETFLIX ................................................................................................ 218Pricing ......................................................................................................................................... 219NETFLIX: GOLD STATNDARD VOD ............................................................................................. 220SONY VIDEO STORE..................................................................................................................... 221VODDLER ..................................................................................................................................... 221WALMART / VUDU: HIGH QUALITY RENTAL SERVICE ............................................................... 222YOUTUBE / GOOGLE PLAY .......................................................................................................... 223COMPARING THE OPTIONS SIDE BY SIDE .................................................................................... 224REVIEWING THE OPTIONS: HARDWARE .................................................................................. 227APPLE TV: STEP TOO FAR INTO THE APPLE CHASM FOR ME ....................................................... 227BOXEE: ROLLS ROYCE SOLUTION, PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO GEEKY (AT THE MOMENT) .............. 227CONSOLES, SONY PS3 AND XBOX: BECAUSE THEY ARE THERE .................................................. 227GOOGLE TV: ONE TO WATCH ..................................................................................................... 227PC: ............................................................................................................................................... 228ROKU: SWEET CHEAP LITTLE DEVICE ......................................................................................... 228SMART TVS ................................................................................................................................. 228LG................................................................................................................................................ 229Panasonic ..................................................................................................................................... 229Samsung ...................................................................................................................................... 229Yahoo TV .................................................................................................................................... 229TABLETS ...................................................................................................................................... 229Android Tablets: Some Good Some Bad .................................................................................... 229Apple iPad: The Gold Standard................................................................................................... 230 6 OF 307
  7. 7. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Kindle Fire: Great Video Experience, Great Android App Recommendations .......................... 230Nook: Really for Books. .............................................................................................................. 230COMPARING THE OPTIONS ........................................................................................................ 230AND FINALLY THE LAUNCH AND INITIAL EXPERIENCES ....................................................... 231LOOKING INTO THE LONG TERM ON INTERNET TV ............................................................... 232VIEWER SURVEY ................................................................................................................... 235INTERVIEWEES ........................................................................................................................... 235RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 236WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF INTERNET TV SERVICES LIKE NETFLIX, HULU, LOVEFILM ? ............ 236ARE YOU CONSIDERING MOVING FROM YOUR CURRENT PAYTV PROVIDER TO INTERNETTV?.. 237WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF YOUR CURRENT PAYTV BILL? .............................................................. 238HAVE YOU HEARD OF TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV / TV APP (E.G. PAYTV ON YOURPHONE / IPAD)? ............................................................................................................................ 239IF YOU HAVE USED TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV WHAT WAS YOUR EXPERIENCE?.... 239WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM A TV EVERYWHERE / MULTI-SCREEN TV SERVICE .................... 240WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF YOUR PAYTV PROVIDERS ONDEMAND SERVICE? ................................ 241KEY POINTS FROM THE VIEWER SURVEY ............................................................................... 242RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................... 244RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PAYTV PROVIDERS ....................................................................... 244RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUPPLIERS ...................................................................................... 246RECOMMENDATION FOR APPLICATION DEVELOPERS ............................................................ 246RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTORS ...................................................................................... 247A FINAL NOTE ............................................................................................................................ 247APPENDIX 1. GEOGRAPHIC MARKET DATA ............................................................... 249AUSTRALIA: DTT DONE RIGHT ................................................................................................ 249BRAZIL ........................................................................................................................................ 252CANADA ...................................................................................................................................... 254CHINA.......................................................................................................................................... 256FRANCE ....................................................................................................................................... 258GERMANY ................................................................................................................................... 260INDIA ........................................................................................................................................... 263ITALY .......................................................................................................................................... 265JAPAN .......................................................................................................................................... 267MEXICO ...................................................................................................................................... 270RUSSIA ........................................................................................................................................ 272SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................. 274SOUTH AFRICA ........................................................................................................................... 276SWEDEN ...................................................................................................................................... 281TURKEY ...................................................................................................................................... 283UNITED KINGDOM ...................................................................................................................... 285UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ................................................................................................... 288 7 OF 307
  8. 8. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012APPENDIX 2: TV EVERYWHERE QUESTIONNAIRE .................................................... 293APPENDIX 3: SUMMARY OF THE ONLINE VIDEO SERVICES .................................. 295NORTH AMERICA ....................................................................................................................... 295AMAZON INSTANT VIDEO ......................................................................................................... 295APPLE TV .................................................................................................................................... 295BLOCKBUSTER ON DEMAND ....................................................................................................... 296BEST BUY, CINEMANOW ............................................................................................................. 296CRACKLE ..................................................................................................................................... 297HULU PLUS .................................................................................................................................. 297NETFLIX ....................................................................................................................................... 298WAL-MART VUDU ..................................................................................................................... 298HBO GO ...................................................................................................................................... 298REST OF THE WORLD................................................................................................................. 299ACETRAX (BOUGHT BY SKY) ...................................................................................................... 299BLINKBOX.................................................................................................................................... 299FILM2HOME................................................................................................................................. 299FILM4OD (FILMFLEX) ................................................................................................................. 299FILMISNOW ................................................................................................................................. 300LOVEFILM ................................................................................................................................. 300MAXDOME ................................................................................................................................... 302SF ANYTIME ................................................................................................................................ 302VIDEO FUTUR (GLOWRIA) ........................................................................................................... 302VIDEOLAND ................................................................................................................................. 302VODDLER .................................................................................................................................. 303APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY OF TERMS ............................................................................... 304 8 OF 307
  9. 9. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 TA BLE O F FI GU RE SFigure 1. Mapping the Hybrid TV Landscape ...............................................................................................19Figure 2. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable and Free Terrestrial) (Millions ofHouseholds) source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ..........................................................21Figure 3. Split between Pure and Hybrid TV Subscribers (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................21Figure 4. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Households (Millions) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................22Figure 5. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts .......................................................................27Figure 6. Rating Technology Impact on TV Ecosystem Members .................................................................29Figure 7. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2009 ...................................................30Figure 8. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2012 ..................................................31Figure 9. TV Everywhere Market Structure ..................................................................................................37Figure 10. Mapping the Internet TV on the TV Landscape ...........................................................................39Figure 11. Battle Across the TV Landscape .................................................................................................41Figure 12. Mapping the Hybrid TV Landscape .............................................................................................53Figure 13. Total TV Market Size (also includes Free Sat, Free Cable and Free Terrestrial) (Millions)source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ...............................................................................55Figure 14. Split between Pure and Hybrid TV Subscribers (Millions) source Alan Quayle Business andService Development .....................................................................................................................................55Figure 15. Source Data for Figure 13 and Figure 14 (Millions of Households) ..........................................56Figure 16. Analog Versus Digital STB Across All TV Households (Millions) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................56Figure 17. Source Data for Figure 16 (Millions of Households) ..................................................................56Figure 18. Breakdown of Netflix Subscribers (source Netflix) ......................................................................59Figure 19. USA TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................61Figure 20. Data for Figure 19 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................61Figure 21 Turkish TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................63Figure 22. Data for Figure 21 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................63Figure 23. Brazilian Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................65Figure 24. Data for Figure 23 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................65Figure 25. China Market Status and Projection (Millions of households) source Alan Quayle Business andService Development .....................................................................................................................................66Figure 26. Data for Figure 25 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................67Figure 27. India TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development ...............................................................................................................68Figure 28. Data for Figure 27 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................68Figure 29. Australian TV Households by Platform (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ..............................................................................................................................70Figure 30. Data for Figure 29 (Millions of Households) ..............................................................................70Figure 31. HbbTV Overview (source HbbTV) ...............................................................................................77Figure 32. TV Services, Broadcast Applications and Broadcast Independent Applications .........................79Figure 33. Simplified EBIF Architecture .......................................................................................................81Figure 34. STB Breakdown by Number Deployed .........................................................................................87Figure 35. Content Security Table ................................................................................................................91Figure 36. Verizon’s STB interactive Technologies ......................................................................................92Figure 37. Verizon Architecture ....................................................................................................................92Figure 38. Verizon Widget Bazaar and Twitter Widget (source Verizon) .....................................................93Figure 39. Role of APIs in Netflix Business .................................................................................................94 9 OF 307
  10. 10. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 40. STB Middleware Vendors and Their Key Accounts .....................................................................96Figure 41. TV Ecosystem ...............................................................................................................................99Figure 42. Measured Ad Spending in the US Q1 2012 compared to Q1 2011 (source Kantar Media) ......102Figure 43. TV Ad Spending in US (source Nielsen) ....................................................................................103Figure 44. Advertising Value Chain ............................................................................................................104Figure 45. Trend in PayTV Subscription and Advertising Revenues ..........................................................105Figure 46. Global Growth in PayTV (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................108Figure 47. Examples of Deal Structures in the Value Chain .......................................................................109Figure 48. Rating Technology Impact on TV Ecosystem Members .............................................................112Figure 49. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2009 ...............................................113Figure 50. Review of Future Scenarios, based on industry interviews 2012 ..............................................114Figure 51. Verizon FiOS Architecture and Migration Plan (source Verizon) ............................................117Figure 52. Verizon FiOS Customer Numbers (source Verizon) ..................................................................118Figure 53. Verizon MY FIOS App (source Verizon) ....................................................................................119Figure 54. FiOS TV Widgets (source Verizon) ............................................................................................120Figure 55. DirecTV Hybrid Set Top Box (source Verizon) .........................................................................121Figure 56. DISH Hopper (source Dish Networks) ......................................................................................122Figure 57. DISH DVR and SlingMedia (source Dish Networks) ................................................................123Figure 58. Sky Anytime+ (source Sky) ........................................................................................................126Figure 59. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................127Figure 60. Sky Go Experience (source Sky) ...............................................................................................127Figure 61. How OrangeTV Delivers on Service Ubiquity (source Orange)...............................................128Figure 62. Simplifying the Purchase decision – Regardless the customer will get OrangeTV (sourceOrange) .......................................................................................................................................................129Figure 63. Orange TV Subscribers (source France Telecom) ....................................................................130Figure 64. CanalSat Proposition (source CanalSat) ..................................................................................131Figure 65. O2TV Hybrid STB ADB-3800TW (source Telefonica) .............................................................136Figure 66. CuboVision WebTV Solution Topology (source Cisco) ............................................................138Figure 67. Belgacom’s TV Partout iPad Screen Shot (source Belgacom) ..................................................145Figure 68. CableVision’s TV To Go (source CableVision) .........................................................................147Figure 69. Xfinity Streampix (source Comcast) ..........................................................................................150Figure 70. DirecTV Anywhere (source DirecTV) ........................................................................................151Figure 71. DISH Remote Access Rating on Google Play (source Google Play) .........................................153Figure 72. SKT Hoppin Experience (source SKT) ......................................................................................155Figure 73. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................156Figure 74. Sky Go Experience (source Sky) ...............................................................................................157Figure 75. Verizon MY FIOS App (source Verizon) ....................................................................................158Figure 76. Geographic Distribution of Respondents for 2012 Survey Source Alan Quayle Business andService Development (Number of Respondents in brackets) .......................................................................163Figure 77. What are your drivers for Hybrid TV (2012 Survey)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................165Figure 78. What are your drivers for Hybrid TV (2009 Survey)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................165Figure 79. What are the Barriers to hybrid TV (2009)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................167Figure 80. What are the Barriers to hybrid TV (2012)? Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................168Figure 81. Applicability of Hybrid TV (2009 and 2012) Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................169Figure 82. Hybrid STB Vendor Comparison Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ......170Figure 83. TV Everywhere Interviews by Companies Interviewed ..............................................................172Figure 84. TV Everywhere Market Structure Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development .....173Figure 85. Scope of TV Everywhere Offers .................................................................................................174 10 OF 307
  11. 11. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 86. Example of how Existing Systems are Extended into TVE .........................................................175Figure 87. Vendor Perception Rating Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ................176Figure 88. Vendor Perception Rating and General Comments Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................176Figure 89. Plurality of OTT Options (Diagram is from 2009 to Highlight how Quickly Brands haveChanged in Dominance) ..............................................................................................................................179Figure 90. Trends in the Evolution of TV ....................................................................................................179Figure 91. TV Landscape ............................................................................................................................181Figure 92. BBC iPlayer Requests January through April 2012 (source BBC) ...........................................182Figure 93. BBC iPlayer Demographics January thru April 2012 (source BBC) ........................................183Figure 94. iPlayer Requests by Device Type (source BBC) .......................................................................183Figure 95. BBC iPlayer – use for TV by time of day, April 2012 (source BBC) ........................................184Figure 96. Sky Go Pricing (source Sky) ......................................................................................................184Figure 97. Sky Go Experience ....................................................................................................................185Figure 98. Major Internet Services on TVs (source CNET) .......................................................................191Figure 99. Sharp SmartCentral UI (source Sharp) ....................................................................................192Figure 100. Toshiba’s Places Platform User Interface ...............................................................................193Figure 101. Panasonic Veira Connect (2012) UK Version (source Panasonic) .......................................194Figure 102. LG Smart Hub Experience (UK Version) ................................................................................195Figure 103 Online Video Content Properties Ranked by Unique Video Viewers May 2012 (sourcecomScore) ....................................................................................................................................................196Figure 104. Mapping the Internet TV on the TV Landscape Source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................206Figure 105. TNO Field Trial (Source TNO) ................................................................................................207Figure 106. TNO Results (source TNO) ......................................................................................................208Figure 107. Commercial Opportunities Enabled by Social TV (Source TNO)............................................208Figure 108. Battle Across the TV Landscape .............................................................................................213Figure 109. Amazon Prime Eligible TV Shows (1801 Results, 475 HD and 1326 SD) ...............................216Figure 110. Amazon Prime Instant Video Movies (3347 items) ..................................................................216Figure 111. Amazon Video Content, 62,000 Instant Videos, and surprisingly 300k VHS tapes! ................217Figure 112. Netflix Just For Kids Web Interface (source Netflix) ...............................................................221Figure 113. YouTube’s Renaissance in part from its Channel Investment (source ComScore) ..................223Figure 114. Google Play Review (Source Google Play) .............................................................................224Figure 115. Comparison of Over The Top TV Services..............................................................................225Figure 116. Example OTT MLB.TV Offer (source MLB.tv) .......................................................................226Figure 117. MLB.TV Usage by Platform 2011 and 2012 ............................................................................226Figure 118. Google TV Remote (source LG) ...............................................................................................229Figure 119. Comparing Internet TV Service Coverage for Some of the Devices (Source The Verge) .......230Figure 120. Comparison Table of Internet TV Devices and Service Coverage (source The Verge) ...........231Figure 121. Geographic Distribution of Interviewees source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................235Figure 122. Household Status on Interviewees ...........................................................................................236Figure 123. What is your view of internet TV services like Netflix, Hulu, LOVEFiLM? ............................237Figure 124. Are you considering moving from your current payTV provider to Internet TV? ..................238Figure 125. What is your view of your current payTV bill? source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................238Figure 126. Have you heard of TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV (e.g. payTV on your phone / iPad)?Source Alan Quayle Business and Service Development ............................................................................239Figure 127. If you have used TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV what was your experience? Source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................240Figure 128. What do you expect from a TV Everywhere / Multi-Screen TV service ..................................240Figure 129. What is your view of your PayTV provider’s on-demand service? (Used Internet TV) sourceAlan Quayle Business and Service Development ........................................................................................241 11 OF 307
  12. 12. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012Figure 130. What is your view of your PayTV providers on-demand service? (Not used Internet TV) sourceAlan Quayle Business and Service Development ........................................................................................242Figure 131. Australian TV Households by Platform (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................250Figure 132. Data for Figure 131 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................251Figure 133. Brazilian Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................253Figure 134. Data for Figure 133 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................253Figure 135. Canadian TV Household Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................255Figure 136. Data for Figure 135 (Millions of Households) .......................................................................255Figure 137. China Market Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan Quayle Businessand Service Development ............................................................................................................................257Figure 138. Data for Figure 137 .................................................................................................................257Figure 139. France TV Household Status and Projection (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................258Figure 140. Data for Figure 139 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................259Figure 141. German TV Households Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................261Figure 142. Data for Figure 141 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................262Figure 143. India TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................264Figure 144. Data for Figure 143 .................................................................................................................264Figure 145. Italy TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................265Figure 146. Data for Figure 145 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................266Figure 147. Japan TV Households Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................268Figure 148. Data for Figure 147 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................269Figure 149. Mexico TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................271Figure 150. Data for Figure 149 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................271Figure 151. Russian TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................273Figure 152. Data for Figure 151 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................273Figure 153. Singapore TV Household Status and Projections (Thousands of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................274Figure 154. Data for Figure 153 (Thousands of Households) ....................................................................275Figure 155. Republic of South Africa TV Households (millions) source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................280Figure 156. Data for Figure 155 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................280Figure 157. Swedish TV Households Status and Projections (Thousands of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................282Figure 158. Data for Figure 157 (Thousands of Households) ....................................................................282Figure 159 Turkish TV Household Status and Projections source Alan Quayle Business and ServiceDevelopment ................................................................................................................................................284Figure 160. Data for Figure 159 .................................................................................................................284Figure 161. UK TV Household Market Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source AlanQuayle Business and Service Development .................................................................................................287Figure 162. Data for Figure 161 .................................................................................................................287Figure 163. Breakdown of Netflix Subscribers (source Netflix) ..................................................................289Figure 164. USA TV Household Status and Projections (Millions of Households) source Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development .............................................................................................................291Figure 165. Data for Figure 164 (Millions of Households) ........................................................................292 12 OF 307
  13. 13. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 I N T ROD U C T I ON The TV industry is going through a period of change more significant than the conversion fromanalog to digital, as significant as the creation of the industry itself when on 2 November 1936 theBBC began transmitting the worlds first public regular broadcast TV service from the VictorianAlexandra Palace in north London. In the conversion from analog to digital customers generallyperceived little change in the core TV service or service providers, perhaps a few more channels andthe availability of additional services like internet access, fixed voice, video on demand, andeventually High Definition TV and 3DTV. It’s important to view the current change from theperspective of the decades long cycle taken for analog to digital conversion. From a technology perspective the current change is stimulated by the convergence of theinternet that can now support adequate quality video services lessening the barrier to entry of anational TV distribution infrastructure and consumer electronics making video consumptionpervasive and on the customers’ terms; it is impacting the whole of the TV ecosystem. Viewers have new consumption options and new video service providers, e.g. a library of tens ofthousands of movies and shows available over the internet for only $8 per month with noadvertising. Viewers can watch their payTV service and recorded shows anywhere they take theirlaptops, tablets and smartphones (they are all computing devices just of different sizes) as long asthey have an internet connection. Content owners have created their own internet-based catch-upTV / VoD (Video on Demand) services, e.g. Hulu, HBO Go and BBC iPlayer. PayTV providershave rushed out partially formed TV Everywhere (multi-screen TV) offers. And hybrid TV hasrapidly become pervasive since the last version of this report was written in 2009 / 2010, e.g. mostsatellite TV providers in developed markets have adopted hybrid TV to support on-demand andinteractive services. The later changes of content providers’ support of new TV delivery models and provenconsumer demand and acceptance of those new TV delivery models are critical to why the currentchanges are more significant than the move from analog to digital. The whole of the TV ecosystemis changing, not one component of the ecosystem. This will in time enable Google, Apple, Netflix,Amazon, Facebook to become payTV competitors, not directly at first, rather capping expansion ofpayTV revenues, but in time competing more directly as viewer habits evolve. We are only at the start of the beginning of the change that the internet and consumerelectronics convergence will have on the TV industry; it will be a multi-decade-long change, just likethe conversion from analog to digital that is still ongoing. Only in 2012 did the number of digital TVhouseholds exceed the analog TV households in the world. This report takes a global view, analyzingwhat is happening outside North America as much as what is happening in North America. As anindependent consultant I have the fortune of not having a pay-master with an agenda to set; whetherthat is to sell a product, maintain a service provider’s stock price, or keep a group of major clientsoverpaying for projects. I consult with payTV providers, internet companies, and technologysuppliers around the world. I live in the North American market and will share my direct objectiveexperiences from being a consumer of bleeding-edge TV services as well as consulting around theworld on TV projects. This report is purposefully broad in scope to provide a reference text in the evolution of TVdelivery. OTT (Internet) TV cannot be viewed as a silo, it must be considered in the wider evolutionof the industry, and today OTT TV is generally consumed as a complement to traditional payTVservices, not as a substitute, this makes internet TV a latent threat. 13 OF 307
  14. 14. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012 I have included the feedback provided by the over 17,000 readers of the old report written in2009/2010, and thank you all for the excellent feedback and guidance in creating this report. Theoverall structure of the report is divided into 4 sections: providing an understanding of the market;learning from real-world case studies and surveys of payTV providers’ views and plans;understanding what the end customer (viewer) is thinking; and then bringing it all together into aview on the future of TV delivery evolution and recommendations. The chapters are summarized here:  Understanding the TV Market: overall size, technologies, standards, and how the ecosystem works. o Definitions and TV Market sizing. Defining hybrid TV, TV everywhere (multi- screen TV) and Internet (Over The Top) TV. Providing the latest TV market data and projections from 2008 to 2017 across all TV platforms, i.e. terrestrial, satellite, cable, IPTV (DSL/fiber) and OTT. The market analysis is broken down to 17 specific countries, some of which are reviewed in the main body of the report as they exemplify particular regions or are simply interesting in their own right, while others are included in Appendix 1. o Key Technologies and Standards. Understanding the status of interactive services and Hybrid TV standardization, the role APIs (Application Program Interfaces) play for OTT TV providers, the role of conditional access systems in the multi-screen environment, and the challenge standards are causing in the traditional payTV industry in adequately reacting to the OTT threat. o Understanding the TV Ecosystem. Frank review across the producers, content owners, TV networks, payTV networks and advertisers. The TV ecosystem is complex and well-established; this is the dominant limiting factor on change. However, change will happen as the viewers are increasingly empowered by technology, but we change habits slowly as changing payTV provider is a household not individual decision.  Case Studies and Market Surveys o Hybrid TV, TV Everywhere, and OTT TV Case Studies. Reviewing the experiences of 16 Hybrid TV deployments including Orange TV, Verizon FiOS, BT Vision, JazzTel, and Telecom Italia CuboVision; and 25 TV Everywhere case studies including Bharti Airtel, China Telecom, DISH Networks, and TerraTV. o Results from 3 global surveys on Hybrid TV, OTT TV, TV Everywhere, and the future of the TV ecosystem. Sharing insights on business models, service plans, requirements, differences based on geographic region and operator type, and deployment experiences. o Detailed review of 44 Over the Top TV providers and enablers. 14 OF 307
  15. 15. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT 2012  What the Viewers Think o My practical experiences in cutting the payTV cord, and personal review of OTT services. o Viewer Survey. What customers are really thinking in North America and Western Europe about what is happening to their TV service?  The Future of TV Delivery and recommendations. This report brings together work performed on TV everywhere, hybrid TV, OTT TV, andservice innovation in the payTV space through over 900 operator, regulator, viewer and supplierinterviews and online questionnaires, gathering information on deployment experiences, marketrequirements, competitive landscape, and technology trends. In particular the market sizing data isbased on actual regulator, operator and supplier figures / projections; not conjecture from out ofmarket analysts. 15 OF 307

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