Basin: Rhine basin (approx. 160e3 km2), focus on Moselle sub-basin Available modeling system: HBV rainfall runoff model at daily time step Within a Delft-FEWS forecast production system (CHPS)
3164 “issued” reforecasts between 1991 and 2010 1/10th-by-1/10th degree 30 days leadtime we use 10 days only
E-OBS is a daily gridded observational dataset for precipitation, temperature and sea level pressure in Europe. The full dataset covers the period 1950-01-01 until 2011-06-30. It has originally been developed as part of the ENSEMBLES project (EU-FP6) and is now maintained and elaborated as part of the EURO4M project (EU-FP7).
Streamflow prediction in River Rhine: Exploring combinations of bias-correcting forcing and bias-correcting flow Jan Verkade (Deltares and Delft University of Technology) James Brown (NOAA-NWS-OHD and UCAR)
Biases/uncertainty in predicted forcing used for streamflow prediction:
NWP models are skillful, but biased (mean, spread,..)
This bias/uncertainty propagates from forcing to flow
Bias-correction of precipitation is complex
Ultimately, flow bias-correction is always needed
Key research questions:
What is the signal from bias-correction of forcing in streamflow?
Is this signal maintained after bias-correction of flow , i.e. is forcing correction needed?
Research design Raw forcing (T,P) Hydrologic model Raw flow Ensemble verification B-C forcing (T,P) Hydrologic model Raw forcing (T,P) Hydrologic model Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Baseline B-C streamflow B-C streamflow