Energy Transition Approach: ultimate challenge for Sweden

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Stockholm, 13 May 2014

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Energy Transition Approach: ultimate challenge for Sweden

  1. 1. twitter.com/janrotmans Energy Transition Approach: ultimate challenge for Sweden Stockholm, 13 May 2014
  2. 2. The Global Energy Transition has reached the tipping point
  3. 3. Through development stagePre-development stage Renewables Decentralized Bottom-up Fossil Centralized Top-down Time Sustainable Energy System We are here Tipping Point Transition to Sustainable Energy
  4. 4. Tipping Point Phase chaos conflicts battlefield
  5. 5. Chaos & Turbulence 3 years ago: nuclear renaissance by now: nuclear pathwork 5 years ago: US largest importer of gas by now: US exporter of gas to Europe 4 years ago: price of solar panels high by now: price of solar panels 60% lower
  6. 6. Old Order & New Order old fossil order – shale gas and unconventional oil in the United States – surplus of cheap coal to Europe huge CO2-emissons and environmental pollution new renewable order – China is the big motor behind ‘clean tech’ – China plays double role, big investments in fossil fuels still small, but fastly growing
  7. 7. Global Energy Battle Field Obama “ The country that will dominate the clean tech economy will be the country that will dominate the world economy and America needs to be that country ”
  8. 8. global economy around ‘clean tech industry’ fastest growing industry in the world 2012: 300 billion dollar (30% growth t.o.v. 2011) China 60 billion Germany 45 billion America 40 billion Italy 17 billion Netherlands 5 billion Clean Tech Economy is ‘booming’
  9. 9. Global Energy Transition not driven by scarcity, climate, environment but driven by geo-political forces, power shifts, prices
  10. 10. The European Energy Transition is in a lock-in situation
  11. 11. no vision and no strategy other global world power blocks are pro-active Europe is not on a route to energy-autonomy Europe does not have a clear strategy
  12. 12. Germany is the absolute frontrunner in clean energy influences the energy price in other countries more and more big power plants are closed each country has its own energy strategy Europe is divided
  13. 13. Europe is forced by Russia to develop an energy strategy
  14. 14. time of easily exploitable resources is over 17 critical earth metals become scarce scandium, neodymium, dysprosium, gadolinium, lanthanum windmills, electric cars, solar panels, smartphones expected growth of these metals is > 1000% China owns 97% China Resources Strategy
  15. 15. new economy of crucial importance for Europe in potency 22 million Europeans involved in 2013: 2-4% of total employment in 2020: 5-10% of total employment Germany and Denmark are frontrunners Emerging Clean Economy in Europe
  16. 16. 3 out of 5 energy companies die out in tipping point phase
  17. 17. Survival of the Fittest not the biggest energy companies survive, also not the smartest, but the most adaptive
  18. 18. Energy has become too important to leave to the market only
  19. 19. energy wende is most radical innovation in Europe rooted in a broad social movement since 1970s political leadership of crucial importance substantive polical influence of Green party consistent innovation policy: feed-in Germany
  20. 20. 4.5% renewable energy production energy transition plan: 14% renewable energy in 2020 strong fossil energy regime dominated by gas gas fields empty in 15 years, no plan B yet in 2030 fossil free is technically possible Netherlands
  21. 21. twitter.com/janrotmans 6 ministeriesInvloedrijke personen uit de energiesector (Ministerie van EZ) SENTER NOVEM TRANSITION-PROJECTS platform- secretaries Taskforce Energy Transition PLATFORM SUSTAINABLEAME MOBILITY UKR- support frontrunners office PLATFORM GREEN RESOURCESFEN PLATFORM CHAIN- EFFIICENCY PLATFORM SUSTAINABLEDUURZAME ELEKTRIC. PLATFORM BUILT ENVIRONMENTG PLATFORM NEW GAS 26 transition pathways -paden 1 long term visiop visie 600 transition experiments PLATFORM GREENH E.SOURCE IPE Bureaucratic Support 6 Ministries Interdepartementale Program direction Energy transition Energy Transition Institutionalised 7 transition platforms thema’s
  22. 22. 48% sustainable energy production 32% bioenergy 16% hydropower 30% oil 13% nuclear 5% coal hardly any wind & solar energy production good sustainable performance but good starting point Sweden
  23. 23. faces a profound energy transition the coming decades substitution of nuclear energy from 2020 on substitution of oil and coal by renewable energy stimulation of wind- and solar energy Sweden
  24. 24. has to make crucial choices next 5 years Sweden
  25. 25. How do transitions work?
  26. 26. Transition fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in societal (sub)system – structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations, actors) – culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms – practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken down and new ones need to be built up
  27. 27. Transition = Power Shift regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at a small scale level niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime regime protects itself against this through absorption, assimilation or elimination of niches transition = regime-change = power shift
  28. 28. Transition Governance
  29. 29. challenge the market & mobilize society Transition Governance
  30. 30. long-term thinking & short-term action Transition Governance
  31. 31. Transition Governance create innovation spaces for radical innovation bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces develop a vision and agenda for radical innovation start portfolio of transition experiments
  32. 32. Radical Innovation • is disruptive innovation • is aimed at fundamental, radical change • is complementary to incremental innovation • arises from new combinations of businesses • system innovation = radical innovation
  33. 33. Transition Governance Cycle vision, pathways, transition agenda transition arena transition experiments evaluation, monitoring learning
  34. 34. Transition Arena - long term - front runners - system innovation - problem / goal seraching Different Arenas Political Arena - short / medium term - peloton - incremental changes - problem- and goal oriented Market Arena - short term - efficiency - profit / growth
  35. 35. Transition Arena – protected but not closed innovation network – dynamic learning network – 10-15 participants, mainly frontrunners – from society, business, government, science, NGOs
  36. 36. Transition Governance 1st phase searching, learning, experimenting 2nd phase selecting, scaling up 3rd phase implementation in policy process
  37. 37. Organic Steering vision, action, strategy demands patience, time, trust
  38. 38. Transition Governance practised in European countries Netherlands, Belgium, France, Scotland, Switzerland, Austria, Finland Outside Europe Japan, Australia, Canada
  39. 39. Transition Governance application domains energy mobility food health care city development
  40. 40. Facilitating Role of Goverment giving direction & providing space
  41. 41. Giving Direction giving direction clear and ambitious goals sound rules of the game fine-tuning developments in coherence
  42. 42. Providing Space innovation space mental space, juridical space, organisational space removing barriers stimulating odd coalitions
  43. 43. Pro-active Role of Companies leadership & new coalitions allies between big companies & small / medium enterprises
  44. 44. NGOs as Connectors frontrunners pave the way connectors form coalitions
  45. 45. What does it mean for Sweden? develop a long term vision for biobased economy formulate a variety of transition pathways biofibers, bioenergy, bio-ICT, bio-built environment, biopharmaceuticals start portfolio of radical bio-innovation experiments scale up most successful bio-experiments
  46. 46. Insights • energy transition is in a tipping point phase • demands governance approach between market & state • requires vision, strategy and action in one • demands facilitating role of government • demands pro-active leading role of companies
  47. 47. Is Sweden ripe for an energy transition governance approach?

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