A change of eras:
a unique opportunity for Curacao
Curacao
02 December 2013

Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans
www.twitter.com/janro...
Concatenation of Crises
till 2020:

financial-economic crisis

after 2020: ecological crises
resources & materials
energy
...
we do not live in an era of change
but in a change of eras
Tipping Point
period during which many changes take place
is rare in modern human history
example: end of 19th century
mod...
World in Transition
1. the fabric of our society is changing

2. the structure of our economy is changing

3. disruptive t...
Economy in Transition
old economy

new economy

fossil fuels

renewable energy

wasteful

natural

deriving values

creati...
Society in Transition
old society

new society

top-down

bottom-up

vertical

horizontal

centralized

decentralized

gov...
Society 3.0
do it ourselves society
bottom-up society
participation society
citizen power

social do-it-self
Transition to New Economy
Throughdevelopment phase

Predevelopment phase
20 – 30 years

20 - 30 years

Consolidatiion
New ...
Transition = Battlefield
evolutionary revolution
3 out of 5 companies will die out
not the biggest but the most adaptive w...
Investment in New Economy
every dollar invested in the new economy
yields three dollars added value in terms of:
innovatio...
New Economy is ‘booming’
global economy around ‘clean tech industry’
fastest growing industry in the world
2012: 300 billi...
New Economy in Europe
new economy of crucial importance for Europe
in potency 22 million Europeans involved
in 2013: 2-4% ...
New Economy in the Netherlands
Green Economy

= ca. 4% of Total Economy (GDP)

Clean Tech

= ca. 2% of Total Economy (GDP)...
http://www.agro-chemie.nl/assets/sites/3/Green-Chemistry-Campus-2.jpg
Green Chemistry Campus
pearl of the biobased economy
campus created by petrochemical company SABIC
SABIC opens their labor...
Paper Factory Van Houtum
frontrunner in paper industry
make paper from waste paper in an efficient way
apply C2C and will ...
New Manufacturing Industry
industry

digital revolution in manufacturing

fundamental change of:
how we make things and wh...
Consumers become Manufacturers
prosumer is pro-active and autonomous
prosumers: new power, organized in digital communitie...
What does this mean to Curacao?
Curacao needs Transition Strategy
Plan B for Curacao
new economic motor
intelligent strategic thinking
iconic examples
Current Strategy of Curacao
rooted in old economy (Isla / fossil fuels)
new economic structure is lacking
with innovation ...
Conclusions
World is in transition but Curacao is not (yet)
Curacao is leaning on the old economy
this will lead to a syst...
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao
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A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao

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  • A change of eras: a unique opportunity for curacao

    1. 1. A change of eras: a unique opportunity for Curacao Curacao 02 December 2013 Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans www.twitter.com/janrotmans
    2. 2. Concatenation of Crises till 2020: financial-economic crisis after 2020: ecological crises resources & materials energy climate
    3. 3. we do not live in an era of change but in a change of eras
    4. 4. Tipping Point period during which many changes take place is rare in modern human history example: end of 19th century modernisation process: basis for Europe education, health care, voting right, social structures
    5. 5. World in Transition 1. the fabric of our society is changing 2. the structure of our economy is changing 3. disruptive technological innovations
    6. 6. Economy in Transition old economy new economy fossil fuels renewable energy wasteful natural deriving values creating values linear circular carbon based biobased
    7. 7. Society in Transition old society new society top-down bottom-up vertical horizontal centralized decentralized government-based citizen-based individual-driven community-driven
    8. 8. Society 3.0 do it ourselves society bottom-up society participation society citizen power social do-it-self
    9. 9. Transition to New Economy Throughdevelopment phase Predevelopment phase 20 – 30 years 20 - 30 years Consolidatiion New paradigm” Old institutions New institutions Old companies Tipping Point Old paradigm New companies Time We are here
    10. 10. Transition = Battlefield evolutionary revolution 3 out of 5 companies will die out not the biggest but the most adaptive will survive
    11. 11. Investment in New Economy every dollar invested in the new economy yields three dollars added value in terms of: innovation employment economic structure every dollar invested in the old economy costs society two dollars
    12. 12. New Economy is ‘booming’ global economy around ‘clean tech industry’ fastest growing industry in the world 2012: 300 billion dollar (30% growth t.o.v. 2011) China Germany America Italy 60 billion 45 billion 40 billion 17 billion Netherlands 5 billion
    13. 13. New Economy in Europe new economy of crucial importance for Europe in potency 22 million Europeans involved in 2013: 2-4% of total employment in 2020: 5-10% of total employment Germany is the frontrunner Denmark performs well England is improving Netherlands is starting up and hooking on
    14. 14. New Economy in the Netherlands Green Economy = ca. 4% of Total Economy (GDP) Clean Tech = ca. 2% of Total Economy (GDP) by now 2-4% of total economy in 2025 11 - 21% at 15% growth per year in 2030 22 - 43% at 15% growth per year
    15. 15. http://www.agro-chemie.nl/assets/sites/3/Green-Chemistry-Campus-2.jpg
    16. 16. Green Chemistry Campus pearl of the biobased economy campus created by petrochemical company SABIC SABIC opens their laboratories for entrepreneurs results in biobased radical innovations biopolymers, biobased building materials, bio natural colours
    17. 17. Paper Factory Van Houtum frontrunner in paper industry make paper from waste paper in an efficient way apply C2C and will become CO2-neutral quite soon work on radical new concept: paper from Miscanthus circular economy: miscanthus growing on old mine hills
    18. 18. New Manufacturing Industry industry digital revolution in manufacturing fundamental change of: how we make things and who makes it éverything can be produced on a PC everybody becomes a producer
    19. 19. Consumers become Manufacturers prosumer is pro-active and autonomous prosumers: new power, organized in digital communities prosumer becomes: developer, builder, manufacturer prosumer can make own: house, furniture, car from consumer to prosumer to manufacturer
    20. 20. What does this mean to Curacao?
    21. 21. Curacao needs Transition Strategy Plan B for Curacao new economic motor intelligent strategic thinking iconic examples
    22. 22. Current Strategy of Curacao rooted in old economy (Isla / fossil fuels) new economic structure is lacking with innovation and jobs economic sectors are underexploited: fishery, harbor, tourism, clean tech
    23. 23. Conclusions World is in transition but Curacao is not (yet) Curacao is leaning on the old economy this will lead to a systemic economic crisis Curacao needs a new economic motor
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