20120215 biobased economy arnhem


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20120215 biobased economy arnhem

  1. 1. Transition Perspective on the Biobased Economy <ul><li>Arnhem </li></ul><ul><li>15 February 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>www.twitter.com/janrotmans </li></ul>
  2. 2. Third Industrial Revolution 1 st Industrial Revolution coal, steam engine 2 th Industrial Revolution oil, combustion engine 3 th Industrial Revolution sustainable energy, renewable resources
  3. 3. Transition to sustainable Economy From To CO2-based CO2-free linear closed cycles fossil fuels green resources recyclen upcyclen ownership trading / hiring
  4. 4. Philosophy we must mimic nature and not control and force from reductionism to holism
  5. 5. clean energy clean transport clean water technology clean chemistry Clean Tech Industry
  6. 6. global economy arising around clean tech fastest growing industry in the world 2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009) China 55 billion Germany 42 billion United States 35 billion Italy 17 billion Nederland 2 billion Global Clean Tech
  7. 7. Bron: Clean Economy, Living Planet
  8. 8. Investeringen in Clean Tech (bron WNF)
  9. 9. Relative Clean Tech value added weighted by GDP 2010 [% EUR] (bron WNF)
  10. 10. National public expenses R&D [% EUR/BNP] (bron WNF) Clean Tech Global Production [% EUR/BNP]
  11. 11. Bron: Roland Berger analysis Clean Energy Technology growth rates per country
  12. 12. Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
  13. 13. Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
  14. 14. clean tech is the fastest growing industry in the world absolute frontrunners are China and the US frontrunners of the pack are Germany, UK, Denmark,Japan the Netherlands is lagging behind (in the back of the pack) the Netherlands is underinvesting in the clean tech Conclusion I
  15. 15. Transition to Bio-Economy
  16. 16. biomass plants, woord, algae, waste photosynthesis biorefining biomaterials Transition to Bio-Economy
  17. 17. Value Pyramid
  18. 18. Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
  19. 19. big harbours chemical industry agriculture and agro-industry transport and logistics energy production knowledge & innovation Ideal Starting Point for the Netherlands
  20. 20. technological adjustment of logistical system new infrastructure (new pipelines) adapted harbours changing material streams different agraricultural chains societal different societal relationships adjusted law and regulation sustainability     Evolutionary Revolution
  21. 23. agriculture must be untwined from the fossil sector chemical sector must be untwined from the fossil sector chemical sector must be converted into food-health sector runs into the vested interests of petro-chemical sector and agricultural sector   demands for radical change and will take decades Interwoven Sub Transitions
  22. 24. Phase of transition bio-economy Predevelopment Stabilisation 2050 Sustainable bio-economy Acceleration Take-off current situation 2000 2012 time
  23. 25. Scale of transition bio-economy Macro-niveau - scarcity of fossil fuels + supply security + climate change - financial-economic crisis Meso-niveau - global climate treaty + WBC Sustainable Development. - EU laws & regulation - Dutch laws & regulation Micro-niveau - pilots + technological expertise + entrepreneurs - local laws & regulation
  24. 26. Transition <ul><ul><li>sweeping change in structure , culture, practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture: paradigms, shared notions and views </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices: routines, rules, behaviour </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>radical shift in thinking & acting at systems level in small steps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
  25. 27. Transition is Power Shift <ul><ul><li>regime: dominant structure, culture and practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>with power and vested interests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices at small scale level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>niche wants to develop power and to take over the </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>existing regime; the regime protects itself against the </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>upcoming niches through absorption or elimination </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transition = regime-exchange = power shift </li></ul></ul>
  26. 28. Three key transition patterns <ul><li> bottom-up </li></ul><ul><li>(i) niches emerge, cluster and form a niche-regime that ultimately takes over the regime, forming a new regime </li></ul><ul><li> top-down </li></ul><ul><li>(ii) a massive, fast change in the landscape leads to big pressure on the regime, resulting in a regime-change </li></ul><ul><li> hybrid </li></ul><ul><li>(iii) niches emerge and form a niche-regime within the incumbent regime that gradually co-evolve into a new regime </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  27. 29. Transition to bio-economy <ul><ul><li>leads to different practices, institutions, laws and rules, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>financial streams and power relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><li> requires institutional innovation: agriculture and chemistry </li></ul><ul><li>needs to cooperate intensely from diverse cultures </li></ul><ul><li> demands for radical change in incremental steps </li></ul>
  28. 30. bio-economy transition is still in predevelopment phase bio-economy transition is the most complex transition in the Netherlands bio-economy is coupled to energy strong resistance from regime in the Netherlands Conclusion II
  29. 31. How to accelerate the Bio-transition?
  30. 32. mental barriers legal barriers policy barriers financial barriers I. Removing Barriers
  31. 33. return on investments for bio-economy is 5 times higher than for fossil economy in terms of: - contribution to innovation - employment - economic structure reinforcement Mental Barriers
  32. 34. Law- and regulation fossil oriented creates a non-level playing field - making ethylene from bio-ethanol (with import tax) or from nafta (oil product, without import tax) - many residual currents are considered as waste in waste materials law Legal Barriers
  33. 35. only signposts for biomass in the direction of energy no signposts for biomaterials / biochemicals - biofuels are obligatory and biomaterials not - European biofuels guideline creates artificlasuper market for biofuels value pyramid turned upside down Policy Barriers
  34. 36. bio-economic system is full of system flaws and is still fully fossil oriented persistent problem Conclusion III
  35. 37. <ul><ul><li>optimalisation route </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> more efficient use of natural resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> closing cycles, using residual currents </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transformative route </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> new products and materials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> biorefining , without fossil fuels </li></ul></ul>II. Dual Routes
  36. 38. Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland <ul><li>DOW </li></ul><ul><ul><li>integral watermanagement, closed watercycle, not from Biesbosch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> important initiative, huge amount of water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DOW bcomes motor for bio-chemistry? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cargill </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> starch and proteins, using residuals and upgrading proteins, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>closing cycles within the company, is part of DNA, example for others </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> 2 th generation biomass? </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  37. 39. Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland <ul><li>Thermphos </li></ul><ul><ul><li>phosphor production on different basis, phosphor from wheat & sludge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> C2C with Braungart, is searching- and learning process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>on the way to green resources and bio-chemistry? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heros Ecopark </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>residuals for high-quality use, using copper and sink better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>new chemical company arises in this way, facilitating partners in chain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> route to biochemical company with better reputation? </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  38. 40. niche-regime players small bio-entrepreneurs together with big traditional companies cross-sectoral paper industry, agrofood sector, dairy, chemical, energy sector societal coalition business / research / education / ngo’s / intermediaries III. New Coalitions
  39. 41. consumers will play a key role in the transition - approaching communities - using social media - participation in innovation spaces IV. Engaging Consumers
  40. 42. bottleneck is NOT the technology BUT the process 99% of the money goes to biotechnology requires smart and subtle manoeuvring It’s the process stupid! V. Facilitating the process
  41. 43. VI. Facilitating the process <ul><ul><li>1. stringent norms for sustainability of biomass </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. creating innovation space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. removing barriers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. forming unthought coalitions and networks </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  42. 44. VII. Visionary & Practical <ul><ul><li>- realising in practice what is already possible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> factory for production of bio-ethylene from bio-ethanol </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>orientation to excellence at high levels in value chain </li></ul></ul><ul><li> high-quality products ; knowledge-intensive innovation </li></ul><ul><li> - searching, learning and experimenting </li></ul><ul><li>innovation spaces with frontrunners </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  43. 45. Recipe for Transition Failure <ul><li> cannot be realized with only players </li></ul><ul><li> from the fossil regime with vested interests </li></ul><ul><li> (topsectoren policy of Dutch government) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a turkey doesn’t put itself on the christmas menu </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  44. 46. new, clean and circular economy is arising: clean tech transition to bio-economy is still in development stage is of crucial importance for Europe and for the Netherlands 22 millions Europeans involved in potence smart facilitation of the bio-transition is needed more frontrunners in new coalitions are needed searching, learning and experimenting Conclusions