20111024 npss11 arnhem
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
357
On Slideshare
316
From Embeds
41
Number of Embeds
2

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 41

http://www.janrotmans.nl 40
http://werkenbijcrop.php5.office.malibomba.com 1

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Transition to a sustainable society: challenge of the century Arnhem, 24 october 2011 Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans www.twitter.com/janrotmans
  • 2. Transitional Times
  • 3. Transition to a sustainable society Predevelopment phase Acceleration phase 20 – 30 years 20 - 30 years Battle between old and Consolidatiion new paradigm ” Build up and decay Widespread application Tipping Point of institutions of new paradigms Distribution and diffusion of water energy societal advantages agriculture health care transport Time We are here
  • 4. Indications for Tipping Pointsemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 5. Multi-level sustainability assessment Macro-level + scarcity of fossil resources + energy security + climate change + financial-economic crisis Meso-level +/- Copenhagen treaty + WBC Sustain. Dev. +/- EU-energy policy + regional and city plans Micro-level + decentral production + solar- and wind energy + local energy cooperations + pioneers and entrepreneurs
  • 6. crisis from a transition perspective Current crisis is a systems crisis financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come systems crisis is deeply rooted inproduction & consumption exhaustion of natural resources only transformative change will help
  • 7. Transitionfundamental change of structure, culture, practicesstructure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handlingfundamentals shift in thinkin & acting at the systems level means to achieve a sustainable society
  • 8. Examples of transitions internet from physical to virtual water transition from stemming water to accomodating water energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply health care transition from bureaucratic health care to human care
  • 9. Paradigm Shiftold worldview new worldviewexploitation model co-operation modeleconomic profit societal profitlinear processes cyclesderiving values creating valuesindividual-driven community-driven
  • 10. Transition to Sustainable Society quest to new values from to welfare happiness exploitation cooperation linear cyclical central decentral hierarchy networks individuals communities control adjust directing facilitating
  • 11. Transition = Power shiftregime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interestsniche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale levelniches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that mighttake over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defendits existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime transition = regime-shift = power shift
  • 12. Global Power Struggle Obama“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy- economy will become the country that will dominate the world economy and America must be that country ”
  • 13. Sustainable Trends
  • 14. Global Sustainable Economyglobal economy arises around clean techsustainable energy, biobased chemical industrysustainable water technology, sustainable waste disposalfastest growing industry in the world2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009) China 55 billion Germany 42 billion United States 35 billion Italy 17 billion Netherlands 3 billion
  • 15. Global Sustainable EconomyChina invests coming 5 years 235 billion euroin clean technologyVW invests 1 billion in sustainable energy(windmill park, hydropower station)Unilever wants to cut footprint by 50% in 10 yearsGerman national bank: 100 billion for sustainable energy green revolution unfolding
  • 16. Global Sustainable Economycurrent worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, waste recyclingwater management, agriculture, servicessustainable energy: 20 million new jobssustainable biomass: 15 million new jobssustainable construction: 10 million new jobs
  • 17. Local Sustainable Dynamics Glocalisationca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlandsthousands of sustainability frontrunners: sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashionhundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainabilityca. 400 plans for local energy cooperations bubbling undercurrent
  • 18. Local Sustainable Dynamics Glocalisationdecentral becomes thé trendenergy but also food, water, waste, carebecomes co-determinant for spatial planningsociety goest faster than politics can handlecompanies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods politics needs to facilitate this dynamics
  • 19. Sustainability Vision
  • 20. Economy clean and safe circular green resourcesnew, green manufacturingwater, energy, climate, space
  • 21. Built Environment energy producing green city farmingusing roofs and front walls
  • 22. Stichting Urgenda
  • 23. Stichting Urgenda
  • 24. Stichting Urgenda
  • 25. Mobility & Transport electric mobility service connected electric carshybrid form of public/private transport
  • 26. Floating Citiesliving, working and recreation on the water floating districts and floating cities green infrastructure on the water floating parks
  • 27. Dutch Research InstituteFor Transitions
  • 28. Floating City living / working units energy: decentral heat/cold storage water recreationmobility:floating ecology:highway, wetlandswater taxi technology: floating foundation Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
  • 29. Value Communities glocalisationcommunities around energy, food, care Clean Tech Rotterdam
  • 30. McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow
  • 31. What does this mean for process technology?
  • 32. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 33. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 34. Plant Onesemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 35. What does this mean for this conference?
  • 36. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 37. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  • 38. Conclusions• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy• this will radically change our production & consumption patterns• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living, working and recreation area• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires an organic development trajectory• floating city might become thé icon of a sustainable City Port Rotterdam