Transition to a sustainable society:    challenge of the century       Arnhem, 24 october 2011          Prof.dr.ir. Jan Ro...
Transitional Times
Transition to a sustainable society         Predevelopment phase                                 Acceleration phase       ...
Indications for Tipping Pointsemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-c...
Multi-level sustainability assessment                        Macro-level                        +     scarcity of fossil r...
crisis from a transition perspective            Current crisis is a systems crisis         financial crisis is a symptom o...
Transitionfundamental change of structure, culture, practicesstructure:       institutional, economic, physical infrastruc...
Examples of transitions                  internet           from physical to virtual              water transition   from ...
Paradigm Shiftold worldview          new worldviewexploitation model     co-operation modeleconomic profit        societal...
Transition to Sustainable Society           quest to new values       from                 to     welfare             happ...
Transition = Power shiftregime:    dominant structure, culture and practices           with power and vested interestsnich...
Global Power Struggle                           Obama“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy- economy will...
Sustainable Trends
Global Sustainable Economyglobal economy arises around clean techsustainable energy, biobased chemical industrysustainable...
Global Sustainable EconomyChina invests coming 5 years 235 billion euroin clean technologyVW invests 1 billion in sustaina...
Global Sustainable Economycurrent worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $sales doubles the coming 5-10 ...
Local Sustainable Dynamics                            Glocalisationca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Nether...
Local Sustainable Dynamics                        Glocalisationdecentral becomes thé trendenergy but also food, water, was...
Sustainability Vision
Economy     clean and safe          circular     green resourcesnew, green manufacturingwater, energy, climate, space
Built Environment    energy producing          green        city farmingusing roofs and front walls
Stichting Urgenda
Stichting Urgenda
Stichting Urgenda
Mobility & Transport               electric           mobility service       connected electric carshybrid form of public/...
Floating Citiesliving, working and recreation on the water    floating districts and floating cities    green infrastructu...
Dutch Research InstituteFor Transitions
Floating City                               living / working units                                               energy: d...
Value Communities            glocalisationcommunities around energy, food, care       Clean Tech Rotterdam
McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow
What does this mean for process technology?
Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-...
Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-...
Plant Onesemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding prote...
What does this mean for this conference?
Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-...
Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis   bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-...
Conclusions• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy• this will radically change our production & consum...
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
20111024 npss11 arnhem
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20111024 npss11 arnhem

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20111024 npss11 arnhem

  1. 1. Transition to a sustainable society: challenge of the century Arnhem, 24 october 2011 Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans www.twitter.com/janrotmans
  2. 2. Transitional Times
  3. 3. Transition to a sustainable society Predevelopment phase Acceleration phase 20 – 30 years 20 - 30 years Battle between old and Consolidatiion new paradigm ” Build up and decay Widespread application Tipping Point of institutions of new paradigms Distribution and diffusion of water energy societal advantages agriculture health care transport Time We are here
  4. 4. Indications for Tipping Pointsemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  5. 5. Multi-level sustainability assessment Macro-level + scarcity of fossil resources + energy security + climate change + financial-economic crisis Meso-level +/- Copenhagen treaty + WBC Sustain. Dev. +/- EU-energy policy + regional and city plans Micro-level + decentral production + solar- and wind energy + local energy cooperations + pioneers and entrepreneurs
  6. 6. crisis from a transition perspective Current crisis is a systems crisis financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come systems crisis is deeply rooted inproduction & consumption exhaustion of natural resources only transformative change will help
  7. 7. Transitionfundamental change of structure, culture, practicesstructure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handlingfundamentals shift in thinkin & acting at the systems level means to achieve a sustainable society
  8. 8. Examples of transitions internet from physical to virtual water transition from stemming water to accomodating water energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply health care transition from bureaucratic health care to human care
  9. 9. Paradigm Shiftold worldview new worldviewexploitation model co-operation modeleconomic profit societal profitlinear processes cyclesderiving values creating valuesindividual-driven community-driven
  10. 10. Transition to Sustainable Society quest to new values from to welfare happiness exploitation cooperation linear cyclical central decentral hierarchy networks individuals communities control adjust directing facilitating
  11. 11. Transition = Power shiftregime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interestsniche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale levelniches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that mighttake over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defendits existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime transition = regime-shift = power shift
  12. 12. Global Power Struggle Obama“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy- economy will become the country that will dominate the world economy and America must be that country ”
  13. 13. Sustainable Trends
  14. 14. Global Sustainable Economyglobal economy arises around clean techsustainable energy, biobased chemical industrysustainable water technology, sustainable waste disposalfastest growing industry in the world2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009) China 55 billion Germany 42 billion United States 35 billion Italy 17 billion Netherlands 3 billion
  15. 15. Global Sustainable EconomyChina invests coming 5 years 235 billion euroin clean technologyVW invests 1 billion in sustainable energy(windmill park, hydropower station)Unilever wants to cut footprint by 50% in 10 yearsGerman national bank: 100 billion for sustainable energy green revolution unfolding
  16. 16. Global Sustainable Economycurrent worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, waste recyclingwater management, agriculture, servicessustainable energy: 20 million new jobssustainable biomass: 15 million new jobssustainable construction: 10 million new jobs
  17. 17. Local Sustainable Dynamics Glocalisationca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlandsthousands of sustainability frontrunners: sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashionhundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainabilityca. 400 plans for local energy cooperations bubbling undercurrent
  18. 18. Local Sustainable Dynamics Glocalisationdecentral becomes thé trendenergy but also food, water, waste, carebecomes co-determinant for spatial planningsociety goest faster than politics can handlecompanies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods politics needs to facilitate this dynamics
  19. 19. Sustainability Vision
  20. 20. Economy clean and safe circular green resourcesnew, green manufacturingwater, energy, climate, space
  21. 21. Built Environment energy producing green city farmingusing roofs and front walls
  22. 22. Stichting Urgenda
  23. 23. Stichting Urgenda
  24. 24. Stichting Urgenda
  25. 25. Mobility & Transport electric mobility service connected electric carshybrid form of public/private transport
  26. 26. Floating Citiesliving, working and recreation on the water floating districts and floating cities green infrastructure on the water floating parks
  27. 27. Dutch Research InstituteFor Transitions
  28. 28. Floating City living / working units energy: decentral heat/cold storage water recreationmobility:floating ecology:highway, wetlandswater taxi technology: floating foundation Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
  29. 29. Value Communities glocalisationcommunities around energy, food, care Clean Tech Rotterdam
  30. 30. McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow
  31. 31. What does this mean for process technology?
  32. 32. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  33. 33. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  34. 34. Plant Onesemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  35. 35. What does this mean for this conference?
  36. 36. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  37. 37. Sustainable Process Technologysemi-permanent financial crisis bank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisisunfolding protest Occupy movement emerging, worldwide nichelooming energy crisis scarcity of exploitable fossil fuelsclimate change extremes polar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floodsscarcity of materials and minerals
  38. 38. Conclusions• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy• this will radically change our production & consumption patterns• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living, working and recreation area• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires an organic development trajectory• floating city might become thé icon of a sustainable City Port Rotterdam
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