20110215 helsinki


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  • 11/09/11 Perez KSI-ECST Amsterdam June 2009
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  • 20110215 helsinki

    1. 1. Transformative Change towards Sustainable Mobility Jan Rotmans Oslo, 31-01-2011
    2. 2. Persistent Problems
    3. 3. Persistent problems <ul><li>our society faces a number of persistent problems </li></ul><ul><li>many examples: climate change, energy supply, </li></ul><ul><li>water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care </li></ul><ul><li>persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted </li></ul><ul><li>in our societal structures </li></ul><ul><li>regular policy aimed at incremental improvement </li></ul><ul><li>is not enough to resolve persistent problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>transformative change is needed </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Persistency of mobility system <ul><ul><li>congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>victims </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>41.000 victims per year in Europe </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>space use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>75% increase over the last 30 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>noise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Damage of unsustainable symptoms <ul><ul><li>total expenses for transport sector in Europe are </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>estimated damage as a result of congestion is about </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1 % of European GDP and increases till about </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 % by 2020 </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Conclusion <ul><ul><li>the current mobility system is far from sustainable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>both on the European and on the Dutch scale </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Sustainability Transitions
    8. 8. Transition <ul><ul><li>fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>societal (sub)system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(rules, regulations, collective actors) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture: collective set of values, norms, perspective </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(shared orientation), paradigm (defining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>problems and solutions) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>implementation at the individual level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Examples of transitions <ul><li>from coal energy supply to gas energy supply </li></ul><ul><li>from extensive to intensive agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy </li></ul><ul><li>from fossil fuel based energy supply to renewable </li></ul><ul><li>energy supply </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>not spontaneous processes </li></ul></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Mobility System <ul><ul><li>structure: traditionally organized, many actors involved </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>limited collective sterring capacity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture: dominant paradigm focused on automobility distinction between mobility modalities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices: all routines, behaviour, ways of handling, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>are oriented towards cars </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Mobility is complex, adaptive system <ul><ul><li>verkeers- en vervoerssysteem is een complex, adaptief systeem: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>is voortdurend in beweging en bestaat uit samenhangende componenten die elkaar wezenlijk beïnvloeden (co-evolutie) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>heeft een zekere onvoorspelbaarheid (chaotisch gedrag) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>heeft zelforganiserend vermogen (op elke interventie wordt door actoren weer ‘onverwacht’ gereageerd via een gedragsaanpassing = reflexief vermogen) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>zolang men geen rekening houdt met deze complexiteit is elke tijdelijke oplossing gedoemd te mislukken. </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Breakthrough to sustainable society ” Widespread application of new paradigms Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages Battle between old and new paradigm Build up and decay of institutions energy Time Consolidatiion transport fisheries health care agriculture 20 - 30 years Acceleration phase Predevelopment phase 20 – 30 years Tipping Point We are here
    13. 13. Multiple Levels Macro-level globalization, demographic trends hypermobility climate change Meso-level limited collective steering capacity failing mobility policy Increasing norms for CO2, fine particles Micro-level mobility innovation programmes mobility experiments
    14. 14. Conclusion <ul><ul><li>Dutch mobility system is in a lock-in state </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ measures for achieving sustainable mobility either : </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> are acceptable but have no serious impacts or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> have impacts but no broad support in society ’ </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Why do transitions often fail? <ul><ul><li>game, rules and players </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transition requires a new structure, culture and practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transition requires new rules, new players and new game </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>dominant players have too many interests to defend and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>don ’ t want to change the rules drastically </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>only new players can ‘ break open ’ the game and change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the rules </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>more, different, better </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Sustainability as orientation <ul><ul><li>sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sustainable development is a socially and scientifically </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>contested notion: no unique definition or approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transition approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>organize reflexive search and learning process with </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>is in a particular context </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Transition governance <ul><li>rules of thumb </li></ul><ul><li>long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy </li></ul><ul><li>think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level) </li></ul><ul><li>learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’) </li></ul><ul><li>using uncertainties as a starting point for governance </li></ul><ul><li>keeping options open (wide playing field) </li></ul>
    18. 18. Forced Steering is counterproductive <ul><li>Suzuki Foundation report on climate change policy </li></ul><ul><li>radical recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>CCS mandatory </li></ul><ul><li>California-level fuel efficiency standards for vehiclesc </li></ul><ul><li>capturing methane emissions from all landfills </li></ul><ul><li>less growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan </li></ul><ul><li>Battle between Provinces </li></ul>
    19. 19. Transition approach <ul><ul><li>principles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>put energy in frontrunners and not in the pack </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bring frontrunners together in protected spaces </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>start with portfolio of transition experiments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>create new coalitions around pathways & experiments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>searching, learning, experimenting </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Transition approach cycle vision, pathways, transition agenda transition arena transition experiments evaluation, monitoring learning
    21. 21. society Transition arenas Regular policy arena <ul><li>- Short term </li></ul><ul><li>- Peloton </li></ul><ul><li>Incremental change </li></ul><ul><li>Problem- and goal oriented </li></ul><ul><li>- Long term </li></ul><ul><li>- Innovators </li></ul><ul><li>System-innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Problem- and goal searching </li></ul>The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning
    22. 22. Transition Experiments <ul><ul><li>s ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>how to manage portfolio of transition experiments? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>deepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>broadening [repeating an experiment in a different context] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>scaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime ] </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Transition Experiments <ul><ul><li>energy delivering greenhouse </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>rush hour avoidance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electric vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CCS close to residential area </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sustainable roofs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>regulatory free zones </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Ongoing transition processes <ul><li>six Dutch ministries have official transition policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Water transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Construction sector transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobility transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biodiversity transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health care transition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>regional governments experiment with transition policy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North-Holland </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer, Twente </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. Energy transition <ul><ul><li>in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>evolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>institutions and individuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>vision has been developed [‘where do we want to go?’] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7 main themes chosen [platforms or arenas] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>23 transition paths formulated [‘how to go there from here?’] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>100 transition experiments set up [‘how to implement paths?’] </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. 6 ministries Influential persons from energy sector (Ministerie van EZ) SENTER NOVEM TRANSITION-PROJECTS Platform- secretaries Taskforce Energy transition PLATFORM SUSUTAINABLEble MOBILITY UKR- support Frontrunners office PLATFORM GREEN RESOURCES PLATFORM CHAIN- EFFIICENCY PLATFORM SUSTAINABLE ELECTRIC. PLATFORM BUILT ENVIRONMENT PLATFORM NEW GAS 23 Transition -pathways 1 Long-term vision 100-en Transition experiments PLATFORM GREENHOUSE SOURCE IPE Supporting staff “ 6 DG” team Interdepartementale Programme board Energy transition Energy transition begonnen met 1 arena….. 7 Transition themes
    27. 27. What has been achieved? <ul><li>sense of urgency, high ambition level </li></ul><ul><li>new discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projects </li></ul><ul><li>broad movement with 1000 people involved </li></ul><ul><li>high amount of time, manpower, energy invested </li></ul><ul><li>but </li></ul><ul><li>still dominance of regime players and danger of </li></ul><ul><li>becoming and execution process and institutionalized </li></ul>
    28. 28. Role of government <ul><ul><li> not in a directing role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>but </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>still an active but different role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>formulating vision and high ambition level </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>creating space for frontrunners </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>stimulating and enabling transition experiments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>removing barriers for sustainable innovation </li></ul></ul></ul>
    29. 29. Role of intermediairy organizations <ul><ul><li>brokery role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>co-designing role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>co-develop transition instruments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>initiating transition experiments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>monitoring role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>monitoring progress of transition process </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>evaluating transition experiments </li></ul></ul></ul>
    30. 30. Successes and Failures <ul><li>Successes </li></ul><ul><li>energy transition </li></ul><ul><li>health care transition </li></ul><ul><li> implemented in regular policy </li></ul><ul><li> Failures </li></ul><ul><li>mobility transition </li></ul><ul><li>biodiversity transition </li></ul><ul><li> not created enough critical mass </li></ul>
    31. 31. Lessons <ul><li>natural tendency to an execution process </li></ul><ul><li>natural tendency of the government to fall back </li></ul><ul><li>in the command-and-control mode </li></ul><ul><li>the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arise </li></ul><ul><li>winners and losers </li></ul><ul><li>space for frontrunners is of crucial importance </li></ul><ul><li>[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space] </li></ul>
    32. 32. Transition Policy for Sustainable Mobility