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ISSI2009

Detection of emerging research fronts
in solar cell research
Yuya Kajikawa1-3, Shinji Fujimoto2, Yoshiyuki Taked...
Information flood & New roles of leading university
We are drowning in
the information sea.

Driving Engine for National
M...
Detection of emerging field

Science and Technology
Roadmap
Volume of
Knowledge

Market
Developing

Technology
Science

Em...
What is a Roadmap?
“road map” is a layout of paths or routes that exists (or
could exist) in some particular geographical ...
What is a S&T Roadmap?
“A consensus articulation of scientifically informed vision of
attractive technology futures”
~Bran...
What is a S&T Roadmap?
Example 2 qualitative roadmap
PV2030

NEDO (New Energy and industrial technology Development Organi...
Our Approach
Citation Network
Analysis
Volume of
Knowledge

Science and Technology
Roadmap
Case study in solar cell resear...
Data & Method

Query: All papers in 63
journals categorized as
152,514 papers Energy and Fuels in JCR.

Data 1. Energy & F...
Method
Clustering

Citation network analysis
Newman-Girvan method
Newman & Girvan, Phys. Rev. E (2004).

Modularity Q

 l...
Method

Citation network analysis

Visualization

Large Graph Layout (LGL)

Adai et al. J. Mol. Biol. (2004).

Locally-opt...
Results & Discussions
Academic Landscape of Energy and Fuels
#3 Battery

#6 Wastewater

8,123 papers, 1997.9

1,619 papers...
Academic Landscape of Solar Cell Research

#2 Compounds

#1 Silicon
4,634 papers, 1995

3481 papers, 1998

#4Organics
1,39...
Academic Landscape of Solar Cell Research
#1.5 Limitation and
modification of efficiency

#2.2 CdS/CdTe
#2.1
Cu(In,Ga)Se2
...
Citation network analysis supporting
S&T Roadmapping
PV2030

NEDO (New Energy and industrial technology Development Organi...
Citation network analysis supporting
S&T Roadmapping
PV2030

Si
Compound

Plastic solar cell
Electrolyte

Conjugated polym...
Citation Network Analysis of Patents
#4, panel,
Result (Technology Layer)368patents, 1994.9
>
visualization in 2008 223pat...
Relationship between Science and technology
Patents
Exist
Science-linkage

Not Exist
Chances for industry
or basic researc...
Gap between Science and technology

Paper clusters
Patent clusters

#4, panel
#7, solar
concentrator
#1, silicon
#2, compo...
Conclusion
Citation network analysis
can be used as a tool for technological forecasting, and its
feasibility is demonstra...
Limitations and future works
Limitation
•not S&T roadmap itself but its trend
•Citation bias (self citation bias, prominen...
Toward a university as a hub of S&T policy-making
Development of methodology for academic overviewing and
implementation o...
Thank you for your listening!
Any questions, comments, suggestions, and proposals are welcome!

Correspondence: Yuya Kajik...
Prior role of S&T roadmap
Accelerating Innovation!
Vision
S&T
roadmap

Trend

Past

Present

Future
Efficient Roadmapping using Citation Network Analysis
Papers

Vision
S&T
roadmap

Trend

Past

Present

Future
Methodology of S&T Roadmapping
Domain
Experts

Computer
Based

Workshop
Survey
Causal models
Scenarios
Delphi

Text
mining...
Example of Expert-based Roadmapping
“T-Plan” by R. Phaal in
Cambridge

Information collection & analysis
Research Purpose
1. Developing a tool supporting roadmapping by using
computer based approach.
2. Illustrating an academic...
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Issi solar cell_research

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A review of research in Solar cell research

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Transcript of "Issi solar cell_research"

  1. 1. ISSI2009 Detection of emerging research fronts in solar cell research Yuya Kajikawa1-3, Shinji Fujimoto2, Yoshiyuki Takeda4, Ichiro Sakata1,2,5 and Katsumori Matsushima1 1Innovation Policy Research Center (IPRC), the University of Tokyo (UT) 2Department of Technology Management for Innovation, UT 3Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) 4Department of Project Management, Faculty of Social Systems Science, Chiba Institute of Technology 5Todai Policy Alternative Research Institute, UT 1
  2. 2. Information flood & New roles of leading university We are drowning in the information sea. Driving Engine for National Movements competence? Sustainable Society? Volume of Knowledge Knowledge Universities Time Society Policy
  3. 3. Detection of emerging field Science and Technology Roadmap Volume of Knowledge Market Developing Technology Science Emerging Time
  4. 4. What is a Roadmap? “road map” is a layout of paths or routes that exists (or could exist) in some particular geographical space. road map is used to know where we are, came from, will go.
  5. 5. What is a S&T Roadmap? “A consensus articulation of scientifically informed vision of attractive technology futures” ~Branscomb (Former Science and Technology Adviser for U.S. President) Science and Technology (S&T) roadmap offers a map about a certain S&T domain to show where we are, came from, will go. Example 1 quantitative roadmap ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors) 2007 Edition
  6. 6. What is a S&T Roadmap? Example 2 qualitative roadmap PV2030 NEDO (New Energy and industrial technology Development Organization), JPN
  7. 7. Our Approach Citation Network Analysis Volume of Knowledge Science and Technology Roadmap Case study in solar cell research. Product Developing Technology Science Emerging Time
  8. 8. Data & Method Query: All papers in 63 journals categorized as 152,514 papers Energy and Fuels in JCR. Data 1. Energy & Fuels (E&F) 2. Solar cell (SC) 15,600 papers Query: solar cell* Period: 1970-2006 Citation Network Analysis Identification of characteristics of clusters Clustering Visualization
  9. 9. Method Clustering Citation network analysis Newman-Girvan method Newman & Girvan, Phys. Rev. E (2004). Modularity Q  ls  d s  2  Q = ∑ −    2l   s =1  l   M Clustering is stopped at Qmax M:number of module l: total number of links ls: number of links in module s ds: total number of links of nodes in module s Q = SUM( (probability of the existence of a link between nodes in the cluster) -(theoretical value of the probability in random network))
  10. 10. Method Citation network analysis Visualization Large Graph Layout (LGL) Adai et al. J. Mol. Biol. (2004). Locally-optimized spring model Links within the same cluster are colored with the same color.
  11. 11. Results & Discussions Academic Landscape of Energy and Fuels #3 Battery #6 Wastewater 8,123 papers, 1997.9 1,619 papers, 1999.3 #8 Engine #9 Solar cell 1,204 papers, 1999.0 1,131 papers, 2000.6 #1 Combustion 12,128 papers, 1995.7 #7 Heat pump 1,413 papers, 1997.3 #2 Coal #5 Fuel cell 11,904 papers, 1994.1 1,704 papers, 2002.1 #10 Power system 813 papers, 1996.7 from 152,514 papsers (1970-2005, connected component = 53,033 papers) #4 Petroleum 5,017 papers, 1994.5 # Rank, Cluster name Cluster size, Average years publication
  12. 12. Academic Landscape of Solar Cell Research #2 Compounds #1 Silicon 4,634 papers, 1995 3481 papers, 1998 #4Organics 1,390 papers, 2002 #3 Dye-sensitized 2,267 papers, 2003 from 16,199papers (1959-2006, connected component = 13,682 papers) # Rank, Cluster name Cluster size, Average years publication
  13. 13. Academic Landscape of Solar Cell Research #1.5 Limitation and modification of efficiency #2.2 CdS/CdTe #2.1 Cu(In,Ga)Se2 369 papers, 2000 #1.2 Highefficiency cells 1,149 papers, 1997 #1.3 Modeling 888 papers, 2001 1,003 papers, 1985 #2.5 Textured ZnO 260 papers, 1999 #2 Compounds #1 Silicon #1.4 Polycrystalline 873 papers, 1998 4,634 papers, 1995 3481 papers, 1998 #2.4 CuInS2 316 papers, 2000 #2.3 Irradiation effects 1,497 papers, 1997 798 papers, 1993 #1.1 a-Si 1,497 papers, 1997 #4Organics 1,390 papers, 2002 #3.3 Modeling #3.4 Fabrication 498 papers, 2003 #4.2 Heterojunction 373 papers, 2002 205 papers, 2003 #3 Dye-sensitized #3.2 Electrolyte 2,267 papers, 2003 715 papers, 2004 #3.1 Photosensitizer from 16,199papers 737 papers, 2002 (1959-2006, connected component = 13,682 papers) #4.3 Cyanine 328 papers, 1997 #4.4 Conjugated polymer #4.1 Plastic solar cell 120 papers, 2004 448 papers, 2004 # Rank, Cluster name Cluster size, Average years publication
  14. 14. Citation network analysis supporting S&T Roadmapping PV2030 NEDO (New Energy and industrial technology Development Organization), JPN
  15. 15. Citation network analysis supporting S&T Roadmapping PV2030 Si Compound Plastic solar cell Electrolyte Conjugated polymer
  16. 16. Citation Network Analysis of Patents #4, panel, Result (Technology Layer)368patents, 1994.9 > visualization in 2008 223patents, 1994.4 #5, diode, #1, cell design, 517patents, 1991.6 #6, CIS, 149patents, 1994.6 #3, battery & converter, 436patents, 1994.9 #7, solar concentrator, 104patents, 1988.7 #2, metal contacts, 438patents, 1991.7 Only clusters whose #patents ≧ 100 were named.
  17. 17. Relationship between Science and technology Patents Exist Science-linkage Not Exist Chances for industry or basic research A B Not Exist C D Papers Exist Too applied or lack of science
  18. 18. Gap between Science and technology Paper clusters Patent clusters #4, panel #7, solar concentrator #1, silicon #2, compounds #1, cell design #6, CIS Solar cell #5, diode #3, dye-sensitized #4, polymer #2, metal contacts battery #3, battery & converter
  19. 19. Conclusion Citation network analysis can be used as a tool for technological forecasting, and its feasibility is demonstrated in solar cell research. successfully illustrated academic landscape of the energy and solar cell domains and emerging research fields there. can detect emerging fields whose parts are not listed in the previous S&T roadmap. can extract different research front between papers and patents.
  20. 20. Limitations and future works Limitation •not S&T roadmap itself but its trend •Citation bias (self citation bias, prominent paper bias, etc.) •Query dependent results (we must know what query should be used to know what we want to know its details.) Future works •Data cleansing •Comparison between text-mining and link-mining.
  21. 21. Toward a university as a hub of S&T policy-making Development of methodology for academic overviewing and implementation of the system to assist technology roadmapping. Grant for Industrial Technology Research (NEDO) PI: Yuya Kajikawa 2009-2011 Knowledge Universities Society Policy
  22. 22. Thank you for your listening! Any questions, comments, suggestions, and proposals are welcome! Correspondence: Yuya Kajikawa, Ph. D kaji@ipr-ctr.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp Innovation Policy Research Center (IPR-CTR) University of Tokyo, Japan 22
  23. 23. Prior role of S&T roadmap Accelerating Innovation! Vision S&T roadmap Trend Past Present Future
  24. 24. Efficient Roadmapping using Citation Network Analysis Papers Vision S&T roadmap Trend Past Present Future
  25. 25. Methodology of S&T Roadmapping Domain Experts Computer Based Workshop Survey Causal models Scenarios Delphi Text mining Link mining
  26. 26. Example of Expert-based Roadmapping “T-Plan” by R. Phaal in Cambridge Information collection & analysis
  27. 27. Research Purpose 1. Developing a tool supporting roadmapping by using computer based approach. 2. Illustrating an academic landscape of solar cell researches and emerging research fields within them to support roadmapping.
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