Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

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This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

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  • 1. ANTICIPATION John Allspaw SVP, Tech Ops Velocity Europe 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 2. PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 3. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 4. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 5. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 6. Design Work Response LearningThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 7. “What could possibly go wrong?”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 8. REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 9. Architectural reviews Go or No-Go meetings “Game Day” exercisesThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 10. DESIGNThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 11. Possible Foreseeable Situations Situations Situations Situations Considered By Considered By Considered By Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer Adamski and Westrum, 2003Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 12. “No problem! I design adaptive systems.”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 13. Deepwater HorizonThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 14. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 15. Challenger ShuttleThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 16. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 17. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 18. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 19. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 20. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 21. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 22. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 23. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensation Woods, 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 24. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 25. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance SYSTEMS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 26. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance NETWORKS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 27. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance STAFF Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 28. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance TOOLS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 29. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance FUNDING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 30. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance ANYTHING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 31. WORKThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 32. Predictability Given situation Given individualThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 33. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 34. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 35. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 36. Uncertainty Of Events Unthought-of Unknowable situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 37. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 38. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 39. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 40. LEARNINGThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 41. TIMEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 42. SUCCEED MATURELYThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 43. DANGERThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 44. “What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.” Leo TolstoyThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 45. ? Haphazard Paranoid Cowboy ParalysisThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 46. Sources of Anticipation Traumatic Mature Experience Requisite ImaginationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 47. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 48. FEARThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 49. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 50. REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 51. Constant Sense Of UNEASEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 52. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 53. Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 54. 1. What do you expect to happen? 2.What might fail during this scenario? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 55. First: individuals Then: As a group Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 56. Expectations? Potential failures? Group versus individual? ? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 57. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 58. The EndThursday, November 10, 2011
  • 59. References Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources. These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems. • Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC ) • Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http:// amzn.to/s9Qo8n) • Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)Thursday, November 10, 2011