ANTICIPATION                                     John Allspaw                                    SVP, Tech Ops            ...
PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
(Anticipation)                          (Response)                  Knowing        Knowing        Knowing      Knowing    ...
(Anticipation)                          (Response)                  Knowing        Knowing        Knowing      Knowing    ...
Design   Work   Response   LearningThursday, November 10, 2011
“What could possibly                   go wrong?”Thursday, November 10, 2011
REQUISITE             IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
Architectural reviews                              Go or No-Go meetings             “Game Day” exercisesThursday, November...
DESIGNThursday, November 10, 2011
Possible    Foreseeable    Situations                            Situations       Situations            Situations        ...
“No problem!          I design adaptive          systems.”Thursday, November 10, 2011
Deepwater                                HorizonThursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Challenger                                ShuttleThursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive                              Systems  Expected  VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive                              Systems  Expected  VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive                              Systems  Expected  VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
New Disturbances Compensation is                                           Arise        Exhausted                         ...
WORKThursday, November 10, 2011
Predictability         Given situation         Given individualThursday, November 10, 2011
Uncertainty                         Of Events     Unknowable               Unthought-of situations          Unknown       ...
Uncertainty                         Of Events     Unknowable               Unthought-of situations          Unknown       ...
Uncertainty                         Of Events     Unknowable               Unthought-of situations          Unknown       ...
Uncertainty                         Of Events                              Unthought-of     Unknowable                situ...
RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
LEARNINGThursday, November 10, 2011
TIMEThursday, November 10, 2011
SUCCEED      MATURELYThursday, November 10, 2011
DANGERThursday, November 10, 2011
“What an immense mass of evil          must result...from allowing men          to assume the right of          anticipati...
? Haphazard                        Paranoid  Cowboy                          ParalysisThursday, November 10, 2011
Sources of                              Anticipation   Traumatic                            Mature   Experience           ...
(Anticipation)                          (Response)                  Knowing        Knowing        Knowing      Knowing    ...
FEARThursday, November 10, 2011
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
REQUISITE             IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
Constant Sense Of                              UNEASEThursday, November 10, 2011
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
1. What do you expect to happen?     2.What might fail during this scenario?            Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
First:    individuals                                Then:                              As a group            Homework!Thu...
Expectations?          Potential failures?          Group versus individual?                                     ?        ...
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
The EndThursday, November 10, 2011
References            Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources.            These should be considered mandato...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

3,677

Published on

This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
3,677
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
80
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

  1. 1. ANTICIPATION John Allspaw SVP, Tech Ops Velocity Europe 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  2. 2. PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011
  3. 3. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  4. 4. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  5. 5. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  6. 6. Design Work Response LearningThursday, November 10, 2011
  7. 7. “What could possibly go wrong?”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  8. 8. REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  9. 9. Architectural reviews Go or No-Go meetings “Game Day” exercisesThursday, November 10, 2011
  10. 10. DESIGNThursday, November 10, 2011
  11. 11. Possible Foreseeable Situations Situations Situations Situations Considered By Considered By Considered By Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer Adamski and Westrum, 2003Thursday, November 10, 2011
  12. 12. “No problem! I design adaptive systems.”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  13. 13. Deepwater HorizonThursday, November 10, 2011
  14. 14. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  15. 15. Challenger ShuttleThursday, November 10, 2011
  16. 16. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  17. 17. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  18. 18. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  19. 19. Thursday, November 10, 2011
  20. 20. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  21. 21. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  22. 22. Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  23. 23. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensation Woods, 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  24. 24. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  25. 25. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance SYSTEMS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  26. 26. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance NETWORKS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  27. 27. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance STAFF Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  28. 28. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance TOOLS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  29. 29. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance FUNDING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  30. 30. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance ANYTHING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  31. 31. WORKThursday, November 10, 2011
  32. 32. Predictability Given situation Given individualThursday, November 10, 2011
  33. 33. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  34. 34. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  35. 35. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  36. 36. Uncertainty Of Events Unthought-of Unknowable situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  37. 37. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  38. 38. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  39. 39. RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  40. 40. LEARNINGThursday, November 10, 2011
  41. 41. TIMEThursday, November 10, 2011
  42. 42. SUCCEED MATURELYThursday, November 10, 2011
  43. 43. DANGERThursday, November 10, 2011
  44. 44. “What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.” Leo TolstoyThursday, November 10, 2011
  45. 45. ? Haphazard Paranoid Cowboy ParalysisThursday, November 10, 2011
  46. 46. Sources of Anticipation Traumatic Mature Experience Requisite ImaginationThursday, November 10, 2011
  47. 47. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  48. 48. FEARThursday, November 10, 2011
  49. 49. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  50. 50. REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  51. 51. Constant Sense Of UNEASEThursday, November 10, 2011
  52. 52. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  53. 53. Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  54. 54. 1. What do you expect to happen? 2.What might fail during this scenario? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  55. 55. First: individuals Then: As a group Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  56. 56. Expectations? Potential failures? Group versus individual? ? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  57. 57. CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  58. 58. The EndThursday, November 10, 2011
  59. 59. References Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources. These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems. • Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC ) • Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http:// amzn.to/s9Qo8n) • Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×