Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
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Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

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This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:

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Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Presentation Transcript

  • ANTICIPATION John Allspaw SVP, Tech Ops Velocity Europe 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011 View slide
  • (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011 View slide
  • (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Design Work Response LearningThursday, November 10, 2011
  • “What could possibly go wrong?”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Architectural reviews Go or No-Go meetings “Game Day” exercisesThursday, November 10, 2011
  • DESIGNThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Possible Foreseeable Situations Situations Situations Situations Considered By Considered By Considered By Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer Adamski and Westrum, 2003Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • “No problem! I design adaptive systems.”Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Deepwater HorizonThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Challenger ShuttleThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Adaptive Systems Expected VariationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensation Woods, 2011Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance SYSTEMS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance NETWORKS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance STAFF Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance TOOLS Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance FUNDING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance ANYTHING Target Control compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • WORKThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Predictability Given situation Given individualThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Uncertainty Of Events Unthought-of Unknowable situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • RESPONSEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • LEARNINGThursday, November 10, 2011
  • TIMEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • SUCCEED MATURELYThursday, November 10, 2011
  • DANGERThursday, November 10, 2011
  • “What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.” Leo TolstoyThursday, November 10, 2011
  • ? Haphazard Paranoid Cowboy ParalysisThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Sources of Anticipation Traumatic Mature Experience Requisite ImaginationThursday, November 10, 2011
  • (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning)Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • FEARThursday, November 10, 2011
  • CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • REQUISITE IMAGINATIONThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Constant Sense Of UNEASEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • 1. What do you expect to happen? 2.What might fail during this scenario? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • First: individuals Then: As a group Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • Expectations? Potential failures? Group versus individual? ? Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
  • CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
  • The EndThursday, November 10, 2011
  • References Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources. These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems. • Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC ) • Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http:// amzn.to/s9Qo8n) • Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)Thursday, November 10, 2011