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Why You Are Here
Why You Are Here                                 5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialrea...
Why You Are Here                                   5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialr...
Why You Are Here                                  5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialre...
Why You Are Here                                     5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initia...
Why You Are HereIf it’s anything like that,                 6          You’ve come to the right place!
Why You Are Here                                         7 At the end of this presentation, we want you to feel like this ...
What’s anestimate?            8
What’s an estimate?                                                 9“Estimation is the calculated approximationof a resul...
What’s an estimate?                                                     10               Burning questionsWhat’s in an    ...
What’s an estimate?                                        “How to bake a pie”        11✔ Requirements  clarification ✔ Use...
✔ Requirements                                                clarification                                               ✔...
✔ Requirements                                                                                           clarification     ...
✔ Theming            ✔ Development/config                                                 14<html>                        T...
✔ Automated                                 testmaking                                  ✔ Testing                         ...
✔ Training/doc               ✔ Deployment                                                                                 ...
17                                     What’s this?                                 PM? Project baloney!                  ...
Why do we need    them?
Why do we need them?                                                      05                                              ...
Why do we need them?                                05                                20  stimates help usE               ...
Why do we need them?               Plan                                    05                                    21 Practi...
Why do we need them?               Plan                                               05                                  ...
Why do we need them?                                                                              Plan                    ...
Why do we need them?                                                                    Plan                              ...
Why do we need them?                                                                    Plan                              ...
Why do we need them?                                                                    Plan                              ...
Why do we need them?                                                                            Plan                      ...
Why do we need them?                                    Plan                                                         25htt...
Why do we need them?                                    26             $ Practical                     Budget             ...
Why do we need them?                                    26             $ Practical                     Budget             ...
Why do we need them?               $        Budget                    €                                27    What can I   ...
Why do we need them?              $       Budget                  €                       Is this slide about COST vs     ...
Why do we need them?                                                            $                  Budget                 ...
Why do we need them?                                                            $                  Budget                 ...
Why do we need them?      $        Budget          €                  30€60              €30                     €100     ...
Why do we need them?      $        Budget          €                            31€60              €30                    ...
Why do we need them?          $        Budget              €                           32                            Compl...
Why do we need them?                    $                Budget                               €                           ...
Why do we need them?              $       Budget                  €                                  34         The sweet ...
Why do we need them?                   $            Budget                        €                                       ...
Why do we need them?                   $       Budget                       €                                  36We think ...
Why do we need them?                                                            $                  Budget                 ...
Why do we need them?                                                            $                  Budget                 ...
Why do we need them?               Communicate                                    38 PracticalExample!
Why do we need them?               Communicate                                    38 PracticalExample!
Why do we need them?           Communicate                                            39    Do they                  Do th...
Why do we need them?                    Communicate                                                       404,500 - 5,500 ...
Why do we need them?  Communicate                       41  €40,000            €40,000
Why do we need them?  Communicate                       42
What affectsestimations?               43
What affectsestimations?RISK               43
What affects                Risk            estimation?                                               44“When the map and ...
What affects                    Risk                        estimation?                                                   ...
What affects               Risk                    estimation?                                                      46What...
What affects    Risk                  estimation?                                         05                              ...
What affects    Risk        estimation??       Identification    ?                          05                             ...
What affects          Risk                                                                    estimation?                 ...
What affects                       Risk                             estimation?                             Assessment    ...
What affects                                    Risk                                  estimation?                         ...
Assessment                                                                                                05              ...
What affects                      Riskestimation?Mitigation                               05                              ...
What affects   Risk                      estimation?                       Mitigation           05                        ...
What affects                          Risk                          estimation?         THE USUAL SUSPECTS                ...
Drupal Estimation   Techniques                56
Drupal Estimation               Techniques                                                    57                  Burning ...
Drupal Estimation            Techniques                                                    58“Estimation is like a walking...
Drupal Estimation             Techniques              niques                                      05                      ...
Drupal Estimation                            Techniques                                  Ball Park Top-Down               ...
Drupal Estimation                         Techniques                                                                      ...
Drupal Estimation           Poll: how many use this?       Techniques                                How many knew it was ...
Drupal Estimation                   Techniques                                                                            ...
Drupal Estimation                          Techniques                                           05                        ...
Beware                                           65      The don’ts   • Don’t the blame game   • Don’t estimate what you  ...
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The Science of Guessing - Drupal estimation techniques from project managers

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From DrupalCon Munich, Aug 22, 2012, description: What usually happens before you get started planning, designing, writing and coding is estimation. Your customer wants to know what the party will cost them. It’s a tricky question to answer. This panel offers you the opportunity to ask some experts your questions and see how they address issues.

Published in: Business, Technology

The Science of Guessing - Drupal estimation techniques from project managers

  1. 1. Au gu st 2 2, 20 12The Science of Guessing - Drupal Estimation Techniques from Project Managers
  2. 2. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Introductions jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 2Who are these people? Shannon Vettes Mattias Axelsson D8 Project Liason, Project Managing CEO and co-founder, Happiness since 2005, Drupal since 2010, Drupal agency Working in IT since 2000 Jakob Persson Co-founder at Wunderkraut, being doing Drupal since 2005
  3. 3. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Introductions jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 3Tweet, Tweet, Tweedly-deet... Questions & comments? #drestimate
  4. 4. Why You Are Here
  5. 5. Why You Are Here 5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialreaction?
  6. 6. Why You Are Here 5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialreaction? Is it THIS?
  7. 7. Why You Are Here 5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialreaction? Or... Maybe This?
  8. 8. Why You Are Here 5When a client orcolleague asks youfor an estimate,what’s your initialreaction? I hope it’s not this....
  9. 9. Why You Are HereIf it’s anything like that, 6 You’ve come to the right place!
  10. 10. Why You Are Here 7 At the end of this presentation, we want you to feel like this when asked for an estimate We’ll cover: What an estimate is What (not) to use them for What they are affected by How an estimate is done Answers to your questions
  11. 11. What’s anestimate? 8
  12. 12. What’s an estimate? 9“Estimation is the calculated approximationof a result which is usable even if input datamay be incomplete or uncertain.”– Wikipedia
  13. 13. What’s an estimate? 10 Burning questionsWhat’s in an What advice can estimate? you give me?
  14. 14. What’s an estimate? “How to bake a pie” 11✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ Theming✔ UI refinement ✔ Development/config ✔ Automated ✔ Training/doc testmaking ✔ Testing ✔ Bugfixing ✔ Deployment ✔ Project management time
  15. 15. ✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ UI refinement 12 Story CaseFocuses on needs Focus on behaviorand describe and interaction,functionality in a eliminatesway the shows its ambiguity andapplication and provides thebusiness value. developer with the information he/ she needs.•Role •Summary•Need •Rationale•Sequence of •Users events •Preconditions•How to demo •Default events •Alternative sequence http://www.stellman-greene.com/2009/05/03/requirements-101-user-stories-vs-use-cases/
  16. 16. ✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ UI refinement 13 Requirements evolve and are clarified over the course of a project, and they’re often provided as UI designs. Click me Click me Click me April May5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  17. 17. ✔ Theming ✔ Development/config 14<html> The “real” work? < ?p hp m_al ter() .tpl.phphook_for Views Panel <as ide> CCK sR ules $(function() { ...})
  18. 18. ✔ Automated testmaking ✔ Testing ✔ Bugfixing 15 • Test more, build more • Automated testing saves time over the course of a project • Tests helps identify and manage ambiguous requirementshttp://www.sxc.hu/photo/684719
  19. 19. ✔ Training/doc ✔ Deployment 16 HOMEWORK (DON’T FORGET!): - Creating content - Ed iting menus les, ok? Dr upal ruhttp://www.sxc.hu/photo/987819
  20. 20. 17 What’s this? PM? Project baloney! We don’t need a PM. We got our own PM team. Yes but who’s gonna tell the nodes where to go? ✔ Project management timehttp://www.sxc.hu/photo/684719
  21. 21. Why do we need them?
  22. 22. Why do we need them? 05 19 Burning questions How does anestimate help me plan What does an the project? estimate communicate? How does an estimate help me budget?
  23. 23. Why do we need them? 05 20 stimates help usE Plan $ Budget € Communicate
  24. 24. Why do we need them? Plan 05 21 PracticalExample!
  25. 25. Why do we need them? Plan 05 21 PracticalExample! 120 hrs 32 hrs × 3 = 96 hrs 96 hrs × 0.25 = 24 hrs
  26. 26. Why do we need them? Plan 22 When will it be done? April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 6.4 × 3 = 19.2 hrs per day April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3196/19.2 = 5 days
  27. 27. Why do we need them? Plan 23http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661
  28. 28. Why do we need them? Plan 23http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661
  29. 29. Why do we need them? Plan 23http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661
  30. 30. Why do we need them? Plan 24 Prj A Project B Project C April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 311 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 311 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 “We’re going to have “We need a few “BUG! Fix ASAP!” to work the weekend to extra adjustments” fix this!” :(
  31. 31. Why do we need them? Plan 25http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1206511
  32. 32. Why do we need them? 26 $ Practical Budget €Example!
  33. 33. Why do we need them? 26 $ Practical Budget €Example!
  34. 34. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 27 What can I What gets meget for my money? the most bang for the buck? And why is that? ...
  35. 35. Why do we need them? $ Budget € Is this slide about COST vs VALUE? 28 Maybe we should have those 2 words appear on here? $ € €€ $ $ $ $€ $ € € ?“stuff customer wants” “customer’s budget”
  36. 36. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 29 April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 ? 500
  37. 37. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 29 April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 €???? €???? ? 500
  38. 38. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 30€60 €30 €100 €120 €50
  39. 39. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 31€60 €30 €100 €120 $ € €€ $ €50 $ $ $€ $ € €
  40. 40. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 32 Complexity €100 Familiarity80 -120 Dependency 80-120
  41. 41. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 33 €60 €30 €100 10-20 30 -40 €120 $ € €€ $ $80 -120 10 -20 €50 $ $€ $ € €
  42. 42. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 34 The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also riskValue Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk
  43. 43. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 35 €50 €120 10 -20 €100 40 -60 80 -120 €60Value €50 €40 10 -20 30 -40 80 -120 €30 10-20 Effort / Risk
  44. 44. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 36We think this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120
  45. 45. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 36 We think this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120 April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  46. 46. Why do we need them? $ Budget € 37 We know this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120 April May1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  47. 47. Why do we need them? Communicate 38 PracticalExample!
  48. 48. Why do we need them? Communicate 38 PracticalExample!
  49. 49. Why do we need them? Communicate 39 Do they Do theyunderstand how understand what complex this we’re trying to design is? achieve?
  50. 50. Why do we need them? Communicate 404,500 - 5,500 2,500??? Do they 2,500 - 3,500 really understand the risks and complexities? RFP 6,500 - 7,000
  51. 51. Why do we need them? Communicate 41 €40,000 €40,000
  52. 52. Why do we need them? Communicate 42
  53. 53. What affectsestimations? 43
  54. 54. What affectsestimations?RISK 43
  55. 55. What affects Risk estimation? 44“When the map and the territory don’tagree, always believe the territory.”– Saying from the Swedish Army
  56. 56. What affects Risk estimation? 45 Burning questions Why should I Are therecare about risk so common risks early on? with Drupal? How do I manage & communicate risk?
  57. 57. What affects Risk estimation? 46What’s the pointof all thesequestions?To help you assess risks toyour estimation, and align thenumbers to manage that risk. Avoid car wrecks
  58. 58. What affects Risk estimation? 05 47Risk analysis ? Identification ? Assessment Mitigation
  59. 59. What affects Risk estimation?? Identification ? 05 48
  60. 60. What affects Risk estimation? Assessment 05 49 Composite Risk Rating Impact Probability × =8 It’s an opportunity to evaluate risk in order to decide how to treat it.http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1196348 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1120986
  61. 61. What affects Risk estimation? Assessment 05 50RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY RATINGVideo component 5 5 25Integration online booking 4 4 16Migration legacy system 2 4 8Asteroid hitting the Earth 1×10^+21 0.000000001 Hey! Don’t forget about us! http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1338362
  62. 62. What affects Risk estimation? Assessment 05 51 Overall risk assessment: Low 1-8, Medium 9-16 or High 17-25 LOW MEDIUM HIGH1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 IGNORE QUARTERLY MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY Overall risk monitoring, a continual process.
  63. 63. Assessment 05 52 DUDE, WTF? Meh Meh seriously Dude, seriously SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY? the api is stable 5 ASTEROID VIDEO COMPONENT 4 INTEGRATIONImpact 3 2 MIGRATION 1 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  64. 64. What affects Riskestimation?Mitigation 05 53 Accept risk - no action Eliminate risk Limit risk Share risk
  65. 65. What affects Risk estimation? Mitigation 05 54 F RO N T LINESF RO M THE A TRUE RISK MI TIGATION STORY
  66. 66. What affects Risk estimation? THE USUAL SUSPECTS 05 55 HEY, NOT MY PROBLEM! THE API IS STABLE! THERE´S A MODULE FOR THAT! ISN’T IT OOTB?UI IS EASYTO CHANGE!
  67. 67. Drupal Estimation Techniques 56
  68. 68. Drupal Estimation Techniques 57 Burning questionsWhat techniques When should I should I use? use what? How do they work?
  69. 69. Drupal Estimation Techniques 58“Estimation is like a walking stick for a blindman. It won’t miraculously give you sight, but itmight help you avoid walking into a wall.”- Old Chinese proverb says
  70. 70. Drupal Estimation Techniques niques 05 593 Example Tech Ball Park Top-Down Weighted Estimate Delphi Methods
  71. 71. Drupal Estimation Techniques Ball Park Top-Down 05 60 Poll: how many use this? How many new it was called this? sRequ irement o r I want t • As a use create to be able s b log post to r I want • As a use edit blog to be able posts to r I want sh • As a use un/publi to be able ? sts blog po
  72. 72. Drupal Estimation Techniques Poll: how many use this? How many knew it was called this? Weighted Estimate 05 61 Task Est Conf Low - Hi Blog listing view 1 4 0.7 - 1.5 Blog Blog post 1 4 0.7 - 1.5 Comments 1 4 0.7 - 1.5Create views Create rules Theming Test Redirect user 2 3 1-4 Redirect user Blog listing after making Blog front page post Show message 2 3 1-4 Showing Blog post message Post pages ... Comments Comment listing 300 - 450 Create a post form
  73. 73. Drupal Estimation Poll: how many use this? Techniques How many knew it was called this? Delphi Methods 05 62Hmm... Hmm... Hmm... Hmm...
  74. 74. Drupal Estimation Techniques 05 63 When should I use what? Weighted Ball Park Top-Down Delphi Estimation General Strategy Specific FeaturesWhen Estimate Ranges Decisions > Accuracy Several Experts Pros: Easy/Fast Pros: Smarter/Accurate Pros: Variance RangeWhy Cons: Short-term Cons: Feature Specific Cons: Takes time Helps for decision making Helps validate theories Helps level-set expectations
  75. 75. Drupal Estimation Techniques 05 64100%Accuracy / Confidence Effort
  76. 76. Beware 65 The don’ts • Don’t the blame game • Don’t estimate what you cannot know – requirements are like icebergs • Don’t in a vacuumhttp://www.sxc.hu/photo/1001938
  77. 77. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Take Aways jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 66 We want you to remember: • Management by estimate == bad idea • Estimates should include much more than just development • Estimates are more than just numbers • Use risk management to avoid problems you can identifyhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/jakeliefer/290510226/
  78. 78. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Opinions welcome jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 67Thanks everyone!Please review:http://bit.ly/IYEGEBNote: You need to be logged in to theDrupalCon website to rate and review sessions.
  79. 79. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Ask away jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 68 Who’s got funny graphic goes Questions?! herehttp://interspeciesfriends.blogspot.de/2008/08/curious-kitten-and-ducklings.html
  80. 80. T he Sci en c Tec e of hn G iqu uess es in fro g: D m pro rupa Talk to us jec l Es t m tim an a ag tion ers 69Shannon VettesTwitter: @svettes Wait, there’s more!shannonvettes@gmail.comJakob PerssonTwitter: @realsolipsist Meet us tomorrow at thejakob.persson@gmail.com “Drupal PM lunch date” BoF at 11.45 to 13.00 in Athen. /Mattias Axelsson You’re w elcome to bring foodTwitter: @mattiasaxelsson lunch.mattias.axelsson@happiness.se

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