Getting Early Estimates Right, DrupalCon Chicago 2011

Getting Early Estimates RightJakob Persson

Introducing me Lead Drupal Solutions Architect Co-Founder of NodeOne Worked with Drupal since 2005 jakob@nodeone.se http://www.twitter.com/realsolipsist http://drupal.org/user/37564 STOCKHOLM | GOTHENBURG | COPENHAGEN www.nodeone.se

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Early estimating“There’s no point in being exact about somethingif you don’t even know what you’re talking about.” — John von Neumann

frustrated!

frustrated! bored...

frustrated! bored... uncertain?!

What is an early estimate?

“Estimation is the calculated approximation of aresult which is usable even if input data may beincomplete or uncertain.” Source: Wikipedia

Useless! http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1259850

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1259850 Use less !Project X Project Y ≠ Project ?

Early estimates vs in-project estimates Early In-project Target Feature User story Decide on Purpose investment Planning Accuracy Low to medium High Method Expert Team

Effort and accuracy 100% Accuracy Effort Adapted from “Agile Estimating and Planning”, Cohn 2008

Early estimates• Can be made in relatively short time• Generates estimates that aren’t based on random guesses or chance• Lets you use your experience as a yardstick and reference

How early estimates are made

“Divide et impera”, how’s that for a strategy?

# Title Estimate DoE Solution12 A spreadsheet34 – and possibly also –A Drupal-devoted developer Dick Olsson, kick-ass Drupal developer at NodeOne

The method

Timebox your estimation workAnalyze the requirementsMake initial guesstimateExtract features and write proposed solutionsEstimate featuresTake uncertainty and errors into accountCompare with guesstimate

Tim eb oxAn aly ze req uir em enIni ts tia l gu ess ti m ateEx tra ct fea t ure sEst im ate fea t ure sUn cer tai nty and err orCo mp s are w ith gue sst im ate

TIMEBOX ESTIMATION WORK

ANALYZE THE REQUIREMENTS From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us. Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page. The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

ANALYZE THE REQUIREMENTS From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You C heck o ut the sample Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, requirements for the Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us. k d irector y site at: Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post lin links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page. The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit http://bit.ly/ their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its rupalestimating best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. d Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

MAKE INITIAL GUESSTIMATE “BETWEEN THUMB AND INDEX FINGER”

EXTRACT FEATURES ANDWRITE SOLUTIONS From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us. Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page. The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John

The sample requirements for the link directory website can also be found on the web: http://bit.ly/drupalestimating

Feature A 2 Feature B 10 Feature C 1 are brokenRequirements down into Feature D 20 Feature E 5 Feature F 1

Deﬁnition of a Feature

Deﬁnition of a FeatureA conceptually and contextually discretepiece of the ﬁnal deliverables with anestimated proposed solution

Link directory sample requirements:http://bit.ly/drupalestimating

From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.comTo: YouSubject: Link directory on DrupalHey,Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonderhow much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software weuse and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can postlinks to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people canpay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" whichcosts $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regularbasis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edittheir own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edittheir posts so that they can cooperate on a post.Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and allold links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think itsbest to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get anemail when links are added so they can go and check.We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor forthis and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feelsuper safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process mustbe over secure connection.We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.Looking forward to your quote.Sincerely,JohnWebsite Manager

From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.“Our site is a link directory Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can postwhere people with awesomely links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" whichcool sites can post links to costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.their sites” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.“Our site is a link directory Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can postwhere people with awesomely links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" whichcool sites can post links to costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.their sites” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. 1 Nodetype: Link Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

1 Nodetype: Link From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.“Also, administrators must be able toapprove links posted. Admins should Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people canget an email when links are added so pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.they can go and check.” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an email when links are added so they can go and check. We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must be over secure connection. We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

1 Nodetype: Link From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com To: You Subject: Link directory on Drupal Hey, Were looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.“Also, administrators must be able toapprove links posted. Admins should Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people canget an email when links are added so pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.they can go and check.” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit their posts so that they can cooperate on a post. Were not planning on migrating content but were offshoring the work and all old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think its Users add links which are best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time. 2 unpublished before approved Its important that its super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts. when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already. Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an Administrators are notiﬁed email when links are added so they can go and check. 3 We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented. when links are added When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for this and drupal needs to integrate with them. Its important that users feel Administrators can view and super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must 4 be over secure connection. approve links We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months. Looking forward to your quote. Sincerely, John Website Manager

14 Featured link on the front page A view displaying a single node of type “Featured”

1 Nodetype: Link2 Users add links which are unpublished before approved3 Administrators are notiﬁed when links are added4 Administrators can view and approve links

# Description Proposed solution Create a node type called link and use the Link module for the1 Nodetype: Link link field. Users add links which are Use Flag and Rules modules to create a workflow. The workflow2 unpublished before approved sets a newly created Link node as unpublished. Administrators are notified Workflow created with Rules, it sends an email to the webmaster3 when links are added once a link node is created. Administrators can view and A list of unpublished nodes of type “link”, created using the Views4 approve links module.

Do this Code less Use the UI instead

By: http://www.sxc.hu/proﬁle/agentoseis Get this Future-proof your website Enjoy a safe upgrade pathhttp://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jns001/2958140977/

Estimation sheet with sample requirements http://bit.ly/estimationsheet3

Estimation Sheet Templatehttp://bit.ly/estimationtemplate3

Number Description Estimate Degree of Experience Proposed Solution Use Flag and Rules modules to create a Users add links which are unpublished2 2 5 workﬂow. The workﬂow sets a newly before approved created Link node as unpublished.

ESTIMATING FEATURES

• Development• Writing automated tests• Conﬁguration• Testing• Fixing bugs• Deploying to staging server

Estimating using a scale• Scale of ﬁxed number of hours• Only use numbers from the scale.• Always round up 1 2 4 8 16

Popular scale 1 2 4 8 16

Popular scale 1 2 4 8 16 Scale I use 1 2 5

Use Flag and Rules modules to create a Administrators are notified when links3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly are added created Link node as unpublished.

Use Flag and Rules modules to create a Administrators are notified when links3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly are added created Link node as unpublished. ~ 3 hours (ideally)

Use Flag and Rules modules to create a Administrators are notified when links3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly are added created Link node as unpublished. ~ 3 hours (ideally) 2 5

Use Flag and Rules modules to create a Administrators are notified when links3 are added 5 workflow. The workflow sets a newly created Link node as unpublished. ~ 3 hours (ideally) 2 5

Factor 0.1Scale I use Factor 1 1 2 5 Factor 10 10 20

Factor 0.1 Factor 1 1 2 5Factor 10 10 20

Changing settings or setting Factor 0.1 conﬁguration Factor 1 1 2 5 Factor 10 10 20 Add a user reference ﬁeld to Article Co-authors for articles 0.2 node type

Changing settings or setting Factor 0.1 configurationBuilding functionality using Drupal’s Factor 1 1 2 5 user interface Factor 10 10 20 List of most popular user profiles based Add a user reference field to and sorts it A view listing Profile nodes Article Co-authors for articles 0.2 1 on number of guestbook entries node type the number of comments each based on has

Changing settings or setting Factor 0.1 configurationBuilding functionality using Drupal’s Factor 1 1 2 5 user interfaceDeveloping new modules or themes Factor 10 10 20 AWrite listing Profile field to and sorts it view a reference nodes Article Add a usermodule that POSTs the user’s List of most popular user profiles based Co-authors userarticles with mailing list 0.2 Integrate for accounts 110 node type the number of comments each based on email address to the provider’s REST API on number of guestbook entries service provider has when the user registers.

gooEstimating http://www.sxc.hu/photo/716594

TAKING UNCERTAINTYAND ERRORS INTOACCOUNT

The cone of uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5xEstimate 1.25x 1.0xerror 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x 0.25x Resolution of decisions in the course of a project

The cone of uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x 0.25x

The cone of uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x 0.25xRough idea0.25x - 4x

The cone of uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x 0.25xRough idea User Interface Design Complete0.25x - 4x 0.8x - 1.25x

The cone of uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x 0.25x

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Chaotic development

Chaotic development Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well

Chaotic developmentPoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx ing Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well

Chaotic development Inexperi enced pePoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx r sonnel ing Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well

Chaotic development Inexperi enced pePoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx r sonnel ingIncomplete or unskilled project planning Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well

Chaotic development g under pressure Abandoning plannin Inexperi enced pePoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx r sonnel ingIncomplete or unskilled project planning Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well

Chaotic development g under pressure Abandoning plannin Inexperi enced pePoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx r sonnel ingIncomplete or unskilled project planning Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well Developer gold-plating

Chaotic development g under pressure Abandoning plannin Inexperi enced pePoor coding practices cause extensive bug ﬁx r sonnel ing Lack of automated source code controlIncomplete or unskilled project planning Requirements that weren’t investigate d very well Developer gold-plating

Overlooked activities

Overlooked activitiesMigration of dataProducing help or documentationDeploymentIntegrating third party systemsWorking with a third party

Overlookedexpectations

Performance

Stability

Security

Usability

Unfounded optimism“You never have to fear that estimates createdby developers will be too pessimistic, becausedevelopers will always generate a too-optimistic schedule.” – Chris Peters, Microsoft Vice President

Off-the-cuff estimation

Assume for clarityMake an assumption and communicate it: “I’m not sure what you mean by ‘integrated user bookmark blogging’ so I assume you mean this, and that’s what I’ve estimated.”

Avoid uncertain solutions

Avoid uncertain solutionsBase solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps ifavailable.

Avoid uncertain solutionsBase solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps ifavailable.Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.

Avoid uncertain solutionsBase solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps ifavailable.Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.Researching solutions by googling, reading articles andblog posts.

Avoid uncertain solutionsBase solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps ifavailable.Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.Researching solutions by googling, reading articles andblog posts.Prototyping solutions in Drupal.

Avoid uncertain solutionsBase solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps ifavailable.Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.Researching solutions by googling, reading articles andblog posts.Prototyping solutions in Drupal.Avoiding solutions that require integration withunknown third-party solutions.

Factoring in solution uncertainty

Degrees of experience You have done the exact same thing in other projects. Someone else at your company has done it in other projects. You have read about it a way to solve it. You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/possible. You have no idea how to implement a solution.

Degrees of experience 5 You have done the exact same thing in other projects. Someone else at your company has done it in other 4 projects. 3 You have read about it a way to solve it. You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/ 2 possible. 1 You have no idea how to implement a solution.

# Description Est Degree of Exp. Proposed solution Create a node type called link and1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 use the Link module for the link field. Use Flag and Rules modules to2 Users add links which are unpublished before approved 2 4 create a workflow. The workflow sets a newly created Link node as unpublished. Workflow created with Rules, it3 Administrators are notified when links are added 5 3 sends an email to the webmaster once a link node is created. A list of unpublished nodes of type4 Administrators can view and approve links 2 5 “link”, created using the Views module.

Degrees of experienceDeg. Description 5 You have done the exact same thing in other projects. 4 Someone else at your company has done it in other projects. 3 You have read about it a way to solve it. 2 You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/possible. 1 You have no idea how to implement a solution.

Degree of experience Deg. Description U You have done the exact same thing 5 in other projects. Someone else at your company has 4 done it in other projects. You have read about it a way to solve 3 it. You can think of a solution that 2 seems reasonable/possible. You have no idea how to implement 1 a solution.

Degree of experience Deg. Description U You have done the exact same thing 5 in other projects. Someone else at your company has 4 done it in other projects.RESEARCH IT! 3 You have read about it a way to solve it. You can think of a solution that 2 seems reasonable/possible. You have no idea how to implement 1 a solution.

Degree of experience Deg. Description U You have done the exact same thing 5 4x in other projects. Someone else at your company has 2x 4 done it in other projects. 1.5x 1.25x You have read about it a way to solve 1.0x 3 0.8x it. 0.67x You can think of a solution that 0.5x 2 seems reasonable/possible. 0.25x You have no idea how to implement 1 a solution.

Degree of experienceDeg. Description Uncertainty factor You have done the exact same thing 5 0.8x - 1.25x in other projects. Someone else at your company has 4 0.67x - 1.5x done it in other projects. You have read about it a way to solve 3 0.5x - 2x it. You can think of a solution that 2 0.25x - 4x seems reasonable/possible. You have no idea how to implement 1 - a solution.

# Description Est Degree of Exp. Range Low High Pro 1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25 0.8 1.25 the Use Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw2 unpublished before approved 2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3 1.34 3 new unp Wo Administrators are notiﬁed 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e3 when links are added 5 3 5 × 2 = 10 2.5 10 nod A li Administrators can view and 2 × 0.8 = 1.6 “lin4 approve links 2 5 2 × 1.25 = 2.5 1.6 2.5 mo

ee of 1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25 0.8 1.25 the Summing up estimates Use Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw2 unpublished before approved 2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3 1.34 3 new unp Wo Administrators are notiﬁed 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e3 when links are added 5 3 5 × 2 = 10 2.5 10 nod 191 147 271

ee of 1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25 0.8 1.25 the Summing up estimates Use Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw2 unpublished before approved 2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3 1.34 3 new Summary of unp ideal estimates Wo Administrators are notiﬁed 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e3 when links are added 5 3 5 × 2 = 10 2.5 10 nod 191 147 271

ee of 1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25 0.8 1.25 the Summing up estimates Use Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw2 unpublished before approved 2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3 1.34 3 new Summary of unp ideal estimates Wo Administrators are notiﬁed 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 Sum range high an e3 when links are added 5 3 5 × 2 = 10 2.5 10 nod 191 147 271

ee of 1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25 0.8 1.25 the Summing up estimates Use Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw2 unpublished before approved 2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3 1.34 3 new Summary of unp ideal estimates Wo Administrators are notiﬁed 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 Sum range high an e3 when links are added 5 3 5 × 2 = 10 2.5 10 nod 191 147 271 Sum range low

Symmetrical uncertainty Low uncertainty Low High 0.8x 1.25x Ideal estimate

Symmetrical uncertainty High uncertaintyLow High0.25x 4x Ideal estimate

Asymmetrical uncertainty Or: it can only get worse! Low High 1x 4x Ideal estimate

Pessimistic Optimistic Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.52 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.43 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.34 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.25 0.8 1.25 1 1.25 0.91 1.1 1 1.1

Symmetrical uncertainty Pessimistic Optimistic Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.52 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.43 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.34 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2

Asymmetrical uncertainty Pessimistic Optimistic Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.52 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.43 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.34 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2

Use the UncertaintyFactors tab in your sheet to set factors and symmetry Copy the above values into the APPLIED columns to work with asymmetrical uncertainty

In the endIts easy to estimate what you know.Its hard to estimate what you know you dont know.Its very hard to estimate things that you dontknow you dont know.

Overhead timeAdministration and project management 1.25xTesting 1.15x

COMPARE WITH GUESSTIMATE ??? ho ur s

Start big, reduce later

Awareness of time

Culture

If unsure, ask an expert

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Getting Early Estimates Right, DrupalCon Chicago 2011

by Jakob Persson on Mar 10, 2011

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Getting Early Estimates Right, DrupalCon Chicago 2011 — Presentation Transcript