The “natural” Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming The “natural” greenhouse effect: The Earth is covered by a blanket of gases which allow light energy from the sun to pass through to the Earth’s surface where it is converted to heat energy. This heat is re-radiated back out to space and some of it is trapped by the gases in the atmosphere. By trapping this outgoing heat, the gases keep the Earth’s surface warm— in much the same way that a blanket keeps us warm underneath it. Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 ° C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible. Global warming : Humans have been releasing carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, altering the natural concentration. These gases mix in the atmosphere and warm the Earth by trapping outgoing heat. The more heat-trapping gases we release into the atmosphere, the thicker the heat-trapping “blanket” gets, and the more the globe warms up. [Note on analogies: The “greenhouse” analogy comes from the fact that sunlight goes through the glass of the greenhouse and the heat is trapped inside. In our explanation above we have used the “blanket of heat-trapping gases” analogy, which is often a simpler concept for people to understand.]
Global Average Temperature Over the past 100 years there has been an increase in global average temperature of more than one degree Fahrenheit (0.6°C). While the record shows a great deal of variability, the upward trend is unambiguous. Most of the warming occurred during two periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to the present. The rate and duration of the 20 th century warming has been much greater than in any of the previous nine centuries (i.e., over the last 1,000 years). Globally, the 1990s has been the warmest decade, and 1998 and 2001 the two warmest years in the last millenium. Night-time minimum air temperatures over land have increased at the greatest rate; this has lengthened the frost-free season in many mid-and high-latitude regions.
Projected Changes in Precipitation Globally, higher temperatures should lead to higher rainfall, because a warmer climate increases the rate of evaporation and speeds up the hydrologic cycle. Regionally, the outcome is more difficult to predict, especially in the Gulf region, given the many influences on its climate.* Rainfall patterns in the region are likely to become more erratic, with heavy downpours and longer dry periods in between. Intense rainfall events have already increased over the past century For most of the immediate Gulf coastal zone, rainfall will likely be lower. These drier conditions will interact with other global warming impacts, such as sea-level rise, to exacerbate water conditions—for example, contributing to salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. It is not yet clear whether upland parts of the region will experience wetter or drier conditions. The Canadian model projects large decreases in precipitation and the Hadley model projects large increases; either outcome would have major impacts on upland ecosystems. *Global climate models also do not simulate smaller-scale events such as hurricanes or thunderstorms, so projections of future rainfall do not include changes in Gulf precipitation from these types of storms, however important they are in actuality.
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms The Gulf Region experiences severe tropical and extratropical storms. Climate change may affect both, but the mechanisms and interactions of many influential factors are still incompletely understood. Hurricane activity varies from decade to decade and is correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. During El Niño events, the probability that hurricanes will make landfall in the southeastern United States goes down, while the probability increases during La Niña events. With global warming, hurricane intensity (maximum wind speeds, rainfall totals) is likely to increase. Note: the number of intense hurricanes (categories 3–5) is projected to increase over the next 25 years, even without climate change, based solely on past trends of climate variability. Changes in future hurricane frequency (which depend in part on whether global warming intensifies El Niño/La Niña conditions) are uncertain. Even if storm intensities were to remain constant, however, coastal flooding and erosion will increase as sea level rises. In other words, even coastal storms that are considered relatively minor today will exert the flooding impact of major storms in the future simply because higher sea levels will bring higher storm surges. Passing storm fronts also strongly influence coastal sea levels; they can raise water levels more than 3 feet in the Mississippi River delta (compared with a tidal amplitude of 1 foot). Changes in the frequency or tracks of frontal systems are still uncertain. Future changes in ENSO—with its influence on the position of the jet stream and thus the ability of storm systems to penetrate far south—will influence local storm and flooding patterns.
Climate Change Projections for the Gulf Coast Region Projecting climate changes for the Gulf Coast region presents a considerable challenge because of the complex interactions of regional and global climate processes. This report relies primarily on two model-based climate scenarios, the same ones used in the recent U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change* . [*The National Assessment is the result of a Congressional mandate (P.L. 101-606) to undertake periodic scientific assessments of the potential consequences of global change on the United States in the context of other pressures on the Public, the environment, and the nation’s resources. The synthesis report of this effort was released in November 2000.]
Rolus Climate Change
Presented by GERRY S. PEDRICO Chief Meteorological Officer PAGASA Davao Station Davao City Global Warming / Climate Change: The Philippine Scenario
What is global warming? <ul><li>Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect. </li></ul>
What is global warming? <ul><li>Observational records give a collective picture of a warming world. </li></ul>
<ul><li>If there were no greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the earth’s surface would approximately be -15°C and life on Earth would then be untenable. </li></ul>
CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and Vehicles Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Carbon dioxide
Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Methane
<ul><li>Nitrous Oxide: </li></ul><ul><li>Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans </li></ul><ul><li>Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Biomass Burning </li></ul><ul><li>Combustion Process Vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Acid Production </li></ul>Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Nitrous oxides
<ul><ul><li>Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 </li></ul></ul>Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Hydrofluorocarbons
<ul><li>Carbon dioxide: + 31% </li></ul><ul><li>Methane: + 151% </li></ul><ul><li>Nitrous oxide: + 17% </li></ul>Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere
Source: IPCC TAR 2001 Strong temperature increase since 1975 (unprecedented) Global Average Surface Temperature Has Risen (0.74°C) Over the Past 100 Years
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade Source: IPCC 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
What are the effects of global warming? <ul><li>Global warming has led to what we call climate change through anthropogenic cause or human intervention. These are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>increases in minimum (nighttime) temperatures, maximum (daytime) temperatures, and increases in the global mean temperature, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increase in sea surface temperatures, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>changes in evaporation, and thus, changes in rainfall patterns among others. </li></ul></ul>
What was the assessed sea level rise due to the increase in the global mean temperature? <ul><li>According to the IPCC, global sea level rise was pegged at an average of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003, or a total of 0.17 m for the 20th century. </li></ul>
What causes global sea level rise? <ul><li>Sea level rise will occur mostly as a result of the thermal expansion of warming ocean waters, the influx of freshwater from melting glaciers and ice, and vertical movements of the land itself. </li></ul>
Are there projections for further warming? <ul><li>Yes, there are projected increases of from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century. The increase that will be realized by 2100 will depend on the population growth, amount and manner of development, adoption of environmentally clean technologies, and other measures/strategies to be put in place by the global community. </li></ul>
What are the expected impacts? <ul><li>Globally, the expected impacts are numerous. Some are beneficial, like the fertilization effect of increased concentration of carbon dioxide seen to cause improved harvests and the warmer temperatures in cold countries which will lead to less death among the very young and the elderly. </li></ul><ul><li>But largely for developing countries, impacts are adverse and may include the ff: </li></ul>
What are the expected impacts? <ul><ul><li>Coastal communities could be affected by accelerated sea level rise, so that they are affected through possibility of more frequent floods and inundation, the possible intrusion of saltwater into their ground resources and also, agricultural areas, more risks to human settlements in these areas, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The beneficial effects of carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture may be negated by higher than threshold temperatures so that harvests could be less, </li></ul></ul>
What are the expected impacts? <ul><ul><li>More frequent incidences of droughts and floods could lead to health problems like increased incidences of vector-borne and water-related diseases, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changed patterns in rainfall and increasing temperatures could lead to a change in the composition of forest species, </li></ul></ul>
What are the expected impacts? <ul><ul><li>The fishing industry may also be affected through the decrease in fish catch if sea surface temperatures continue to increase as nutrients could become less, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More frequent floods/droughts could impact on the agricultural production, and thus, the livelihood of the subsistence farmer. </li></ul></ul>
How can individuals help to mitigate the adverse impacts of global warming? <ul><li>Be aware of global warming/climate change issues and help others know about them. </li></ul><ul><li>Recycling cans and bottles help conserve our resources as this will lead to less energy and less elements used in manufacturing them, while recycling paper will lead to less trees being cut down. </li></ul>
How can individuals help to mitigate the adverse impacts of global warming? <ul><li>Save energy by saving electricity through the use of energy efficient lighting and appliances, biking/walking not very far distances and carpooling. </li></ul><ul><li>Advocate the use of renewable energy such as those from hydrodams, wind, solar radiation and biofuels. </li></ul><ul><li>Plant trees and encourage others to plant, too. </li></ul><ul><li>Conserve water and other natural resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Be environmentally friendly. </li></ul>
Manifestations of Climate Change … Melting of Glaciers Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade
GLOBAL CHANGE: GREENLAND ICEBERGS Greenland's glaciers are melting into the sea twice as fast as the previously believed rate of four miles per year.
GLACIER RETREAT: GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA
The Thames Barrier , a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall .
N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs SST (1944-2005) Source: IPCC Marked increase after 1994
What to expect in the 21 st Century? Phenomenon a and direction of trend Likelihood of continuation of trend based on projections for 21 st century using SRES scenarios Warmer/fewer cold day/nights over most land areas Virtually certain d Warmer/more hot days/nights over most land areas Virtually certain d Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas Very likely Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas Very likely Area affected by droughts increases Likely Number of intense tropical cyclones increases Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely
Projected Changes in Precipitation <ul><li>More frequent intense rainfall events; longer dry periods in between </li></ul><ul><li>Drier in most coastal areas </li></ul>Source: SFWMD What to expect in the 21 st Century?
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms With global warming: more intense hurricanes are likely, but changes in frequency are uncertain.
So … What does this all mean for the Philippines?
What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale? <ul><li>In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer. </li></ul><ul><li>Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent. </li></ul>
AREAS OF FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER WORLDWIDE AN AVERAGE OF 100 TROPICAL CYCLONES OCCUR ANNUALLY WORLDWIDE; 30 OF WHICH FORM IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA
20 15 THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) 120 25 5 115 5 135 135 25
NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z I II III IV 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 <ul><li>AURING </li></ul><ul><li>BISING </li></ul><ul><li>CRISING </li></ul><ul><li>DANTE </li></ul><ul><li>EMONG </li></ul><ul><li>FERIA </li></ul><ul><li>GORIO </li></ul><ul><li>HUANING </li></ul><ul><li>ISANG </li></ul><ul><li>JOLINA </li></ul><ul><li>KIKO </li></ul><ul><li>LABUYO </li></ul><ul><li>MARING </li></ul><ul><li>NANDO </li></ul><ul><li>ONDOY </li></ul><ul><li>PEPENG </li></ul><ul><li>QUEDAN </li></ul><ul><li>RAMIL </li></ul><ul><li>SANTI </li></ul><ul><li>TINO </li></ul><ul><li>UNDANG </li></ul><ul><li>VINTA </li></ul><ul><li>WILMA </li></ul><ul><li>YOLANDA </li></ul><ul><li>ZORAIDA </li></ul>AGATON BASYANG CALOY DOMENG ESTER FLORITA GLORIA HENRY INDAY JUAN KATRING LUIS MILENYO NENENG OMPONG PAENG QUENNIE REMING SENIANG TOMAS USMAN VENUS WALDO YAYANG ZENY AMANG BEBENG CHEDENG DODONG EGAY FALCON GORING HANNA INENG JUANING KABAYAN LANDO MINA NONOY ONYOK PEDRING QUIEL RAMON SENDONG TISOY URSULA VIRING WENG YOYOY ZIGZAG AMBO BUTCHOY COSME DINDO ENTENG FRANK GENER HELEN IGME JULIAN KAREN LAWIN MARCE NINA OFEL PABLO QUINTA ROLLY SIONY TONYO UNDING VIOLETE WINNIE YOYONG ZOSIMO
PHILIPPINE VULNERABILITIES TO GLOBAL WARMING/ CLIMATE CHANGE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA VISITED BY AVERAGE 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR
LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS Philippine Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
SINCE 2003 AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS .
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO GROUND MOVEMENTS (LANDSLIDES, MUDSLIDES, ETC.) SITTING ALONG MAJOR FAULT LINES = FRACTURED ROCKS (GROUND EASILY SATURATED WITH WATER) MOUNTAINOUS TOPOGRAPHY WITH STEEP SLOPES
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODINGS AND INUNDATIONS <ul><li>Archipelago, composed of 7,100 islands with low lying areas </li></ul><ul><li>Highly susceptible to sea level rise </li></ul><ul><li>Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges) </li></ul>
THREATEN FOOD SECURITY Primarily Agricultural and Fishing Economy
A 1 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE IN THE TROPICS AGRICULTURAL YIELD DECLINE BY AS MUCH AS 10%
TEMPERATURE INCREASE BY 2-6 DEGREES DECLINE OF 29%-60% IN PHIL AGRI PRODUCTION WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FOOD SECURITY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PHILIPPINES HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH
What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale? <ul><li>A substantial amount of coral reefs in the country have been found to have been affected by bleaching during events of warmer sea surface temperatures. Bleaching of the coral reefs is associated with the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, and the death of the corals if the warming of the sea surface temperatures are prolonged. </li></ul>
WHAT CAN WE ALL DO TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE?
Activities we can do to help: <ul><li>Conserve the use of electricity and water </li></ul><ul><li>Put out lights that are not in use or close the television when nobody is watching </li></ul>According to studies abroad, 75% of electricity consumed at home is stand by power to keep electronics running while they are off.
Activities we can do to help: <ul><li>Drive Less and Drive Smart </li></ul>Less driving means fewer emissions. Besides saving gasoline, walking and biking are great forms of exercise.
Plant a Tree A single tree will absorb approximately one ton of carbon dioxide during its lifetime. During photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen.
Activities we can do to help: we already have an efficient rail transit and you may try it
Activities we can do to help: <ul><li>If you are in a business that uses fuel, switch to renewable energy source </li></ul><ul><li>Strive to have a more efficient production process </li></ul><ul><li>Use efficient lighting and efficient use of electrical equipment . </li></ul>
Activities we can do to help: Invest in projects that can generate carbon credits and generate more revenues reforestation Landfill gas recovery
<ul><li>Replace regular light bulbs with compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs. </li></ul><ul><li>Replacing just one 60-watt incandescent light bulb with a CFL will save you Php30.00 over the life of the bulb. </li></ul><ul><li>CFLs also last 10 times longer than incandescent bulbs, and use two-thirds less energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Change a Light Bulb </li></ul>
Reduce, Reuse, Recycle <ul><li>Recyclable products are usually made out of things that already have been used. It usually takes less energy to make recycled products than to make new ones. The less energy we use, the better. </li></ul><ul><li>By recycling half of your household waste, you can save 2,400 pounds of carbon dioxide annually. </li></ul>
Promote Pubic Awareness <ul><li>Educate yourself, you family, your friends, your co-workers and everyone you meet. </li></ul><ul><li>The more people are aware of the issues the more likely they are to make decisions that will be constructive! </li></ul><ul><li>Be active - Speak up in a positive way in your local community and organization and help others to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emmisions . </li></ul>
Capacity: 24.75 MW (15 WTG @ 1.65 MW) Height of hub : 70 m Cost = US$ 47.6 M Northwind Wind Power Project in Bangui Bay Ilocos Norte STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
Northwind Wind Power Project in Bangui Bay Ilocos Norte Philippines is now the leading wind energy producer in Southeast Asia Phase 2 (8 MW) On-going
1 MW CEPALCO Solar Power Plant STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Milestones of the REPF (2003-2006)