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Intro to Agent Based Modeling at Strataconf 2013

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  • 1. Quantitative Insights from Qualitative Data Presented by: Jacqueline Kazil @jackiekazil October 28, 2013 Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 2. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 3. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 4. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 5. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 6. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 7. Who am I? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 8. Overview of talk Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 9. Goals • Introduction to agent-based models • How are agent-based models built • How/why/when to use you may want to use this approach Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 10. Overview • What is ABM? • History and sample • Walk through of simple ABM • How to get started Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 11. What is an ABM? • Agent-based model • Agent-based simulation Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 12. What is an ABM? Agent-based modeling is a method of computational modeling that simulate interactions among agents with the purpose of viewing the effects on the system as a whole. ("Agent Based Modeling” 2013) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 13. What is an ABM? ABM vs Classical Models Classical: ‘...equations expressing relationships between observable components of a system...’ ABM: ‘...system-level patterns emerge from... interactions.’ (Koohafkan 2013) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 14. A very brief history of ABM Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 15. Example Model... Cholera Model Protype http://bit.ly/cholera-model Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 16. Walk through of an ABM Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 17. Context... Race and Ethnicity 2010 (By Eric Fischer) (Fischer 2010) Sunday, November 10, 13
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  • 23. Background... Thomas Schelling on segregation Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 24. (Schelling 1974) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 25. Netlogo’s Segregation Model http://bit.ly/netlogo-segration (Wilensky 1997, 1999) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 26. “This project models the behavior of two types of turtles in a mythical pond. The red turtles and green turtles get along with one another. But each turtle wants to make sure that it lives near some of "its own." That is, each red turtle wants to live near at least some red turtles, and each green turtle wants to live near at least some green turtles. The simulation shows how these individual preferences ripple through the pond, leading to large-scale patterns.” (Wilensky 1997, 1999) Sunday, November 10, 13
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  • 39. How to get started Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 40. Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: A Practical Introduction By Steven F. Railsback and Volker Grimm (2011) http://bit.ly/abm-practical Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 41. Growing Artificial Societies By Joshua Epstein and Rob Axtell (1994) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 42. Questions to ask • What is the problem/question that I am trying to answer? • What am I trying to measure? • Do I have insight or literature that describes the behavior? • What rules will the system have? • What is important and what is not? (Start simple.) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 43. Sample qualitative data • The Unthinkable:Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why By Ripley, Amanda • Sunday, November 10, 13 Five Days at Memorial: Life and Death in a Storm-Ravaged Hospital By Sheri Fink
  • 44. Structure of the model • What theory did you come up with to work off of? • Who are the agents? • What does the world look like? Is space important? • What occurs in a time step? • What is the order of action? Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 45. Map interactions (Doncaster 2013) Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 46. Choose a language/toolkit • Netlogo - http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ • Mason - http://cs.gmu.edu/~eclab/projects/mason/ • Repast - http://repast.sourceforge.net/ • Repastpy - http://repast.sourceforge.net/repast_3/repastpy/ • More options and lots of info: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/acecode.htm Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 47. Build the model Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 48. Things to keep in mind • Netlogo is great place to start • Just because you built, doesn’t mean it’s right • More doesn’t mean better • Iterate, iterate, iterate (See Cholera model.) http://bit.ly/early-cholera • Test and validate your results Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 49. Use the model. Report results. Rinse and repeat. Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 50. References "Agent Based Modeling.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 17 September 2013. Web. 19 September 2013. Crooks, Andrew. "Diseases and Refugee camps." GIS and Agent-Based Modelling: Diseases and Refugee camps. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Oct. 2013. <http:// www.gisagents.org/2012/05/diseases-and-refugee-camps.html>. Doncaster, C. Patrick, Adam Jackson, and Richard A. Watson. “Competitive environments sustain costly altruism with negligible assortment of interactions.” Scientific Reports. 03 Oct. 2013. Article number: 2836. Nature Publishing Group. doi:10.1038/srep02836 Fischer, Eric. "Race and Ethnicity 2010." Flickr. Yahoo!, n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013. <http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingsf/sets/72157626354149574/with/ 5559914315/>. Koohafkan, Michael. "Fun with agent-based modeling." The research blog of Michael Koohafkan. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Oct. 2013. <http:// www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~mikeck/?p=282>. Schelling, T.C. (1974) On the ecology of micromotives. The Corporate society. Marris, R. (ed). London: Macmillan: 19-64. Stroud, Doug. [Photograph of a wheaten terrier]. (2013). Stroud, Doug. [Photograph of a cane corso]. (2013). Wilensky, U. (1997). NetLogo Segregation model. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Segregation. Center for Connected Learning and ComputerBased Modeling, Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. Sunday, November 10, 13
  • 51. Questions? jackiekazil@gmail.com @jackiekazil Sunday, November 10, 13