SIIA: Empirical Media CEO Jack Griffin: 4 Top Media Trends in 2014

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Jack Griffin, CEO, Empirical Media gives his predictions of the four biggest trends that will affect media and information services in 2014. …

Jack Griffin, CEO, Empirical Media gives his predictions of the four biggest trends that will affect media and information services in 2014.

www.empiricalmedia.com

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  • 1. GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH FOR MANAGING DISRUPTION JACK GRIFFIN, CEO IIS 2014 January 29 - 30, 2014
  • 2. em·pir·i·cal Originating in, or based on, systematic observation, fact, or application of the scientific method 2
  • 3. an empirical approach A continuous process of understanding what is out in the open and constantly looking for what is hidden from view 3
  • 4. “ A new medium is never an addition to an old one, nor does it leave the old one in peace. It never ceases to oppress the older media until it finds new shapes and positions for them. ” – Marshall McLuhan, 1964 4
  • 5. Two Kinds of Disruptors ones we CAN see ones we MIGHT NOT see 5
  • 6. MAGAZINES: The Change We Could See 6
  • 7. MAGAZINES: The Change We Might Have Missed 7
  • 8. In a single decade, a new magazine industry 8
  • 9. In a single decade, a new magazine industry 9
  • 10. MUSIC: The Change We Could See 220 MILLION SOLD: 1979 - 2010 (3 DECADES) 10
  • 11. MUSIC: The Change We Might Have Missed 25 BILLION SONGS DOWNLOADED FROM ITUNES: 2001 - 2013 (1+ DECADE) 3.5 SONGS FOR EVERY PERSON ON EARTH! 11
  • 12. Ongoing disruption and transformation in music 12
  • 13. NEWSPAPERS: The Change We Could See 13
  • 14. NEWSPAPERS: The Change We Might Have Missed 14
  • 15. NEWSPAPERS: From high to low in ten years 15
  • 16. TELEVISION: The Change We Are Seeing 16
  • 17. TELEVISION: The Change We Might Be Missing 17
  • 18. TELEVISION: Netflix is almost as popular as cable among young adults 18
  • 19. What Has Happened? § Disconnection of media/entertainment products from physical devices § Unbundling of content sections from one another § From producer in control to customer in control § From opt-out to opt-in 19
  • 20. The Opt-in World § 50% of Americans now own a Tablet or E-Reader § 56% own a SmartPhone Source: Pew Research, 2013 and 2014 20
  • 21. Opt-in World for Content An app for everything 21
  • 22. Opt-in World for Advertising Google adds optionality, December 2013 to charge only for clicked on ads 22
  • 23. The Four Leaders of the Opt-in World SOCIAL SEARCH COMMERCE ENTERTAINMENT 23 Source: CoRise, October 2011
  • 24. The Only Constant is Change 24
  • 25. “The Now Accelerators” DATA & ANALYTICS DEMANDBASED PRICING MOBILITY & TOUCH NEW CONTENT SOURCES 25
  • 26. A Framework for Managing Disruption an empirical approach GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES A continuous process of understanding what is out in the open and constantly looking for what is hidden from view 26
  • 27. A Framework for Managing Disruption an empirical approach GREY AREAS “Understanding & Inquiring” SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES “Optimizing & Executing” “Imagining & Extending” 27
  • 28. GREY AREAS - “Understanding & Inquiring” Some Empirical Questions § What has the customer hired us to do? GREY AREAS § What are the real economics? § Who is the real competition? § What drives what? 28
  • 29. FORBES: Understanding Grey Areas 29
  • 30. SILVER LININGS - “Optimizing & Executing” Some Empirical Questions § What is (or could be) valuable? § What is unique? SILVER LININGS § What is working and what is not? § What do the data tell us? § What are the patterns? § What do we need to stop doing? 30
  • 31. THE NEW YORK TIMES: Executing Silver Linings 727K Mobile Redesign Midyear 2013 Digital Subscriptions +28% Q3 2013 Website Redesign January 2014 31 New York Times Press Release, October 2013
  • 32. WHITE SPACES - “Imagining & Extending” Some Empirical Questions § What do we have permission to do? WHITE SPACES § What kind of culture do we need? § What capabilities will we need to add? § What do we build? What do we acquire? 32
  • 33. MEREDITH: Extending into White Spaces 33
  • 34. Conquering White Spaces the Netflix Way 34
  • 35. According to Reed Hastings § A highly-successful process-driven company - With leading share in its market - Minimal thinking required - Few mistakes made – very efficient - Few curious innovator-mavericks remain - Very optimized processes for its existing market 35 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  • 36. Then the Market Shifts… § Market shifts due to new technology or new competitors or new business models § Company is unable to adapt quickly, because the employees are extremely good at following the existing processes, and process adherence is the value system § Company generally grinds painfully into irrelevance, due to inability to respond to the market shift 36 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  • 37. The best managers figure out how to get great outcomes by setting the appropriate context, rather than by trying to control their people. 37 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  • 38. Context, not Control Provide the insight and understanding to enable sound decisions CONTEXT § Strategy § Metrics § Assumptions § Objectives § Clearly-defined roles § Knowledge of the stakes § Transparency around decision-making CONTROL § Top-down decision-making § Management approval § Committees § Planning and process valued more than results 38 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  • 39. With the Right People, Instead of a Culture of Process Adherence, Culture of Freedom and Responsibility, Innovation and Self-Discipline 39 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  • 40. What Will Jeff Bezos Do? GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES 40
  • 41. “ ” Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better. – Samuel Beckett GREY AREAS 41
  • 42. “ We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. ” – T. S. Eliot, Four Quartets WHITE SPACES 42