GREY AREAS
SILVER LININGS
WHITE SPACES

AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH FOR MANAGING DISRUPTION

JACK GRIFFIN, CEO

IIS 2014
January...
em·pir·i·cal
Originating in, or based on, systematic
observation, fact, or application of the
scientific method

2
an empirical approach
A continuous process of understanding
what is out in the open and constantly
looking for what is hid...
“

A new medium is never an addition to
an old one, nor does it leave the old
one in peace. It never ceases to
oppress the...
Two Kinds of Disruptors
ones we CAN see

ones we MIGHT NOT see
5
MAGAZINES:

The Change We
Could See

6
MAGAZINES:

The Change We
Might Have Missed

7
In a single decade, a new magazine industry

8
In a single decade, a new magazine industry

9
MUSIC:

The Change We
Could See

220 MILLION SOLD: 1979 - 2010 (3 DECADES)
10
MUSIC:

The Change We
Might Have Missed

25 BILLION SONGS DOWNLOADED FROM ITUNES: 2001 - 2013 (1+ DECADE)
3.5 SONGS FOR EV...
Ongoing disruption and transformation in music

12
NEWSPAPERS:

The Change We
Could See

13
NEWSPAPERS:

The Change We
Might Have Missed

14
NEWSPAPERS:

From high to low in
ten years

15
TELEVISION:

The Change We
Are Seeing

16
TELEVISION:

The Change We
Might Be Missing

17
TELEVISION:

Netflix is almost as popular
as cable among young adults

18
What Has Happened?
§ Disconnection of media/entertainment products from physical devices
§ Unbundling of content section...
The Opt-in World

§ 50% of Americans now own
a Tablet or E-Reader
§ 56% own a SmartPhone
Source: Pew Research, 2013 and ...
Opt-in World for Content
An app for everything

21
Opt-in World for Advertising
Google adds optionality, December 2013 to charge only for clicked on ads

22
The Four Leaders of the Opt-in World

SOCIAL

SEARCH

COMMERCE

ENTERTAINMENT

23
Source: CoRise, October 2011
The Only Constant is Change

24
“The Now Accelerators”

DATA &
ANALYTICS

DEMANDBASED
PRICING

MOBILITY
& TOUCH

NEW
CONTENT
SOURCES

25
A Framework for Managing Disruption
an empirical approach

GREY
AREAS

SILVER
LININGS

WHITE
SPACES

A continuous process ...
A Framework for Managing Disruption
an empirical approach

GREY
AREAS

“Understanding
& Inquiring”

SILVER
LININGS

WHITE
...
GREY AREAS - “Understanding & Inquiring”

Some Empirical Questions
§ What has the customer hired us to do?

GREY
AREAS

§...
FORBES: Understanding Grey Areas

29
SILVER LININGS - “Optimizing & Executing”
Some Empirical Questions
§ What is (or could be) valuable?
§ What is unique?

...
THE NEW YORK TIMES: Executing Silver Linings

727K

Mobile Redesign Midyear 2013

Digital
Subscriptions

+28%
Q3 2013
Webs...
WHITE SPACES - “Imagining & Extending”

Some Empirical Questions
§ What do we have permission to do?

WHITE
SPACES

§ Wh...
MEREDITH: Extending into White Spaces

33
Conquering White Spaces the Netflix Way

34
According to Reed Hastings
§ A highly-successful process-driven company

- With leading share in its market
- Minimal thi...
Then the Market Shifts…
§ Market shifts due to new technology or new competitors
or new business models
§ Company is una...
The best managers figure out how to get great outcomes
by setting the appropriate context,
rather than by trying to contro...
Context, not Control
Provide the insight and understanding to enable sound decisions
CONTEXT
§ Strategy
§ Metrics
§ Ass...
With the Right People,
Instead of a Culture of Process Adherence,
Culture of Freedom and Responsibility,
Innovation and Se...
What Will Jeff Bezos Do?

GREY
AREAS

SILVER
LININGS

WHITE
SPACES
40
“ ”
Ever tried. Ever failed.
No matter. Try again.
Fail again. Fail better.
– Samuel Beckett

GREY
AREAS

41
“

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the pl...
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SIIA: Empirical Media CEO Jack Griffin: 4 Top Media Trends in 2014

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Jack Griffin, CEO, Empirical Media gives his predictions of the four biggest trends that will affect media and information services in 2014.

www.empiricalmedia.com

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SIIA: Empirical Media CEO Jack Griffin: 4 Top Media Trends in 2014

  1. 1. GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH FOR MANAGING DISRUPTION JACK GRIFFIN, CEO IIS 2014 January 29 - 30, 2014
  2. 2. em·pir·i·cal Originating in, or based on, systematic observation, fact, or application of the scientific method 2
  3. 3. an empirical approach A continuous process of understanding what is out in the open and constantly looking for what is hidden from view 3
  4. 4. “ A new medium is never an addition to an old one, nor does it leave the old one in peace. It never ceases to oppress the older media until it finds new shapes and positions for them. ” – Marshall McLuhan, 1964 4
  5. 5. Two Kinds of Disruptors ones we CAN see ones we MIGHT NOT see 5
  6. 6. MAGAZINES: The Change We Could See 6
  7. 7. MAGAZINES: The Change We Might Have Missed 7
  8. 8. In a single decade, a new magazine industry 8
  9. 9. In a single decade, a new magazine industry 9
  10. 10. MUSIC: The Change We Could See 220 MILLION SOLD: 1979 - 2010 (3 DECADES) 10
  11. 11. MUSIC: The Change We Might Have Missed 25 BILLION SONGS DOWNLOADED FROM ITUNES: 2001 - 2013 (1+ DECADE) 3.5 SONGS FOR EVERY PERSON ON EARTH! 11
  12. 12. Ongoing disruption and transformation in music 12
  13. 13. NEWSPAPERS: The Change We Could See 13
  14. 14. NEWSPAPERS: The Change We Might Have Missed 14
  15. 15. NEWSPAPERS: From high to low in ten years 15
  16. 16. TELEVISION: The Change We Are Seeing 16
  17. 17. TELEVISION: The Change We Might Be Missing 17
  18. 18. TELEVISION: Netflix is almost as popular as cable among young adults 18
  19. 19. What Has Happened? § Disconnection of media/entertainment products from physical devices § Unbundling of content sections from one another § From producer in control to customer in control § From opt-out to opt-in 19
  20. 20. The Opt-in World § 50% of Americans now own a Tablet or E-Reader § 56% own a SmartPhone Source: Pew Research, 2013 and 2014 20
  21. 21. Opt-in World for Content An app for everything 21
  22. 22. Opt-in World for Advertising Google adds optionality, December 2013 to charge only for clicked on ads 22
  23. 23. The Four Leaders of the Opt-in World SOCIAL SEARCH COMMERCE ENTERTAINMENT 23 Source: CoRise, October 2011
  24. 24. The Only Constant is Change 24
  25. 25. “The Now Accelerators” DATA & ANALYTICS DEMANDBASED PRICING MOBILITY & TOUCH NEW CONTENT SOURCES 25
  26. 26. A Framework for Managing Disruption an empirical approach GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES A continuous process of understanding what is out in the open and constantly looking for what is hidden from view 26
  27. 27. A Framework for Managing Disruption an empirical approach GREY AREAS “Understanding & Inquiring” SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES “Optimizing & Executing” “Imagining & Extending” 27
  28. 28. GREY AREAS - “Understanding & Inquiring” Some Empirical Questions § What has the customer hired us to do? GREY AREAS § What are the real economics? § Who is the real competition? § What drives what? 28
  29. 29. FORBES: Understanding Grey Areas 29
  30. 30. SILVER LININGS - “Optimizing & Executing” Some Empirical Questions § What is (or could be) valuable? § What is unique? SILVER LININGS § What is working and what is not? § What do the data tell us? § What are the patterns? § What do we need to stop doing? 30
  31. 31. THE NEW YORK TIMES: Executing Silver Linings 727K Mobile Redesign Midyear 2013 Digital Subscriptions +28% Q3 2013 Website Redesign January 2014 31 New York Times Press Release, October 2013
  32. 32. WHITE SPACES - “Imagining & Extending” Some Empirical Questions § What do we have permission to do? WHITE SPACES § What kind of culture do we need? § What capabilities will we need to add? § What do we build? What do we acquire? 32
  33. 33. MEREDITH: Extending into White Spaces 33
  34. 34. Conquering White Spaces the Netflix Way 34
  35. 35. According to Reed Hastings § A highly-successful process-driven company - With leading share in its market - Minimal thinking required - Few mistakes made – very efficient - Few curious innovator-mavericks remain - Very optimized processes for its existing market 35 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  36. 36. Then the Market Shifts… § Market shifts due to new technology or new competitors or new business models § Company is unable to adapt quickly, because the employees are extremely good at following the existing processes, and process adherence is the value system § Company generally grinds painfully into irrelevance, due to inability to respond to the market shift 36 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  37. 37. The best managers figure out how to get great outcomes by setting the appropriate context, rather than by trying to control their people. 37 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  38. 38. Context, not Control Provide the insight and understanding to enable sound decisions CONTEXT § Strategy § Metrics § Assumptions § Objectives § Clearly-defined roles § Knowledge of the stakes § Transparency around decision-making CONTROL § Top-down decision-making § Management approval § Committees § Planning and process valued more than results 38 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  39. 39. With the Right People, Instead of a Culture of Process Adherence, Culture of Freedom and Responsibility, Innovation and Self-Discipline 39 Source: Reed Hastings, Working at Netflix; Aug 01, 2009
  40. 40. What Will Jeff Bezos Do? GREY AREAS SILVER LININGS WHITE SPACES 40
  41. 41. “ ” Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better. – Samuel Beckett GREY AREAS 41
  42. 42. “ We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. ” – T. S. Eliot, Four Quartets WHITE SPACES 42
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