ITSinsider '09 Prognostications

2009 Enterprise 2.0 Prognostications by Susan Scrupski /ITSinsider 1

Leading Surprise 2.0 Evangelist for 2009? 2 2

Barack Obama: Chief Geek “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.” 3 The good folks who came out in droves to support Obama online are a testament to the power of the social web. From change.gov to YouTube addresses, this Commander in Chief will set a high bar for leaders and citizens to embrace openness, transparency, collaboration, and sharing. Keyboard and mobile commandos will drive policy in this administration.

Biggest Non-Surprise for 2009? 4

MOSS will continue to dominate large Enterprise • Over 100 million licenses sold • Over $1B in revenue • MSFT is IT’s BFF SharePoint licenses (MM) 140 105 70 35 0 2005 2008 2009 (e) 2010 (e) 5 Just deal with it. Microsoft will continue to play in the starring role of the 800-lb gorilla in the corporate corridors of IT power. And, sadly, IT still has a heavy hand in what technology users can liberate their inner social child with. If Microsoft says it has wikis, blogs, and RSS then guess what...? IT will believe them and make a safe choice. Unless, of course, they choose IBM Lotus Connections, which is a better choice.

Good News for 2009? 6

Forward-thinking Enterprises will embrace best-in-class startup ESSPs. • Low barriers to entry • High incentive to leverage scarce talent • ROI mandates rendered anachronistic 7 A-list vendors with easy to use, useful technology will ﬁnd it easier in 2009 to sell into forward-thinking (risk averse) enterprises. There will be budget available to experiment with these technologies as the recession/global crisis will accelerate the “do more with less” mantra. Andrew McAfee’s new book will settle once and for all the ineectiveness of old school ROI models relative to real success with ESSPs.

Most Excellent News for 2009? 8

2.0 will Become Boardroom Sexy 9 John Chambers is singing the 2.0 tune. A respected global executive among the global executive elite, he will become the poster child for transforming enterprise by embracing the tenets of openness, collaboration, sharing, and transparency. We’ll soon see large management consulting ﬁrms singing the same praises. e20 will become the “e-business” of the next decade.

Most Disturbing News for 2009? 10

The Long Tail of Micro-Inﬂuence will Disrupt... Everything 11 Twitter. Who knew? Something so innocuous could create so much disruption. Mini micro- web celebs with their legions of adoring fan/followers will mess with reputation and loyalty all across the globe. When networks of networks connect, the micro-sharing phenomenon will whip its long tail and knock out the best laid plans of strategic planners.

Opportunity in 2009? 12

Trail Guides across Frustration Canyon 13 I talked about “Frustration Canyon” in my annual yearly wrap up of e2.0 trends on ITSinsider. This is the gap between the go-go evangelists who see the world as it could be (open, collaborative, sharing, and transparent) and the resolute change resisters. The opportunity for vendors is to help show the way, gently introducing concepts and not igniting wholesale culture shock/religious wars about how work should be done. The emphasis for 2009 will be the soft side of the 2.0 (r)evolution: PEOPLE vs. technology. Changing hearts and minds, not dazzling displays of tech grooviness.

What’s Hot and What’s Not for 2009? In Out Social Capital Socialbation Micro-sharing Blogging LinkedIn Facebook Great UI/UX Emailing support Video Conferencing Travel Nokia iPhone Casual Business Casual Macs PCs 14 In: Social Capital Out: Socialbation. Enterprises that leverage the deep intellectual assets and informal networks (inside and outside) the organization will soar this year. The tired practice of “socialbation” (the self- gratifying act of pontificating about social media to fellow social media enthusiasts) will become less interesting, even for voyeurs. In: Micro-sharing Out: Blogging. Sorry, the trend will only accelerate this year. In: LinkedIn Out: Facebook The recession and pressure to leverage business relationships will find a welcome partner in LinkedIn. Facebook is for after school; LinkedIn will finally prove useful. In: Great UI/UX Out: Emailing Support. The most important element of software design will be superb UI/UX. If I can’t figure out how to do something in less than 10 seconds, I’m already gone. In: Video conferencing. Out: Travel. Strict T&A diets go into eect 1Q and stay all year. For the “Never got a lift out of lear jets” crowd, this is a welcome development. In: Nokia Out: iPhone. Just a hunch, unsubstantiated. In: Casual Out: Business Casual. Boots, jeans, flats, pony tails-- it’s all good. Dressing for success is about your Twitter background, not your designer digs. In: Macs Out: PCs. Just a casual airport terminal observation. Is it just me?

ITSinsider blog Happy 2009 Twitter/ITSinsider 15

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ITSinsider '09 Prognostications

by Susan Scrupski on Jan 02, 2009

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ITSinsider ’09 Prognostications — Document Transcript