2009 Enterprise 2.0
Prognostications
by Susan Scrupski
/ITSinsider
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Leading Surprise 2.0 Evangelist
for 2009?
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Barack Obama: Chief Geek
“We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.”
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The good folks who came out in droves to support Obama online are a testament to the
power of the social web. From change.gov to YouTube addresses, this Commander in Chief
will set a high bar for leaders and citizens to embrace openness, transparency, collaboration,
and sharing. Keyboard and mobile commandos will drive policy in this administration.

Biggest Non-Surprise for 2009?
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MOSS will continue to dominate large Enterprise
• Over 100 million licenses sold
• Over $1B in revenue
• MSFT is IT’s BFF SharePoint licenses (MM)
140
105
70
35
0
2005 2008 2009 (e) 2010 (e)
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Just deal with it. Microsoft will continue to play in the starring role of the 800-lb gorilla in
the corporate corridors of IT power. And, sadly, IT still has a heavy hand in what technology
users can liberate their inner social child with. If Microsoft says it has wikis, blogs, and RSS
then guess what...? IT will believe them and make a safe choice. Unless, of course, they
choose IBM Lotus Connections, which is a better choice.

Good News for 2009?
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Forward-thinking Enterprises will embrace
best-in-class startup ESSPs.
• Low barriers to entry
• High incentive to leverage scarce talent
• ROI mandates rendered anachronistic
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A-list vendors with easy to use, useful technology will find it easier in 2009 to sell into
forward-thinking (risk averse) enterprises. There will be budget available to experiment with
these technologies as the recession/global crisis will accelerate the “do more with less”
mantra. Andrew McAfee’s new book will settle once and for all the ineectiveness of old
school ROI models relative to real success with ESSPs.

Most Excellent News for 2009?
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2.0 will Become Boardroom Sexy
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John Chambers is singing the 2.0 tune. A respected global executive among the global
executive elite, he will become the poster child for transforming enterprise by embracing the
tenets of openness, collaboration, sharing, and transparency. We’ll soon see large
management consulting firms singing the same praises. e20 will become the “e-business” of
the next decade.

Most Disturbing News for 2009?
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The Long Tail of Micro-Influence will Disrupt...
Everything
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Twitter. Who knew? Something so innocuous could create so much disruption. Mini micro-
web celebs with their legions of adoring fan/followers will mess with reputation and loyalty
all across the globe. When networks of networks connect, the micro-sharing phenomenon
will whip its long tail and knock out the best laid plans of strategic planners.

Opportunity in 2009?
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Trail Guides across Frustration Canyon
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I talked about “Frustration Canyon” in my annual yearly wrap up of e2.0 trends on ITSinsider.
This is the gap between the go-go evangelists who see the world as it could be (open,
collaborative, sharing, and transparent) and the resolute change resisters. The opportunity
for vendors is to help show the way, gently introducing concepts and not igniting wholesale
culture shock/religious wars about how work should be done. The emphasis for 2009 will
be the soft side of the 2.0 (r)evolution: PEOPLE vs. technology. Changing hearts and minds,
not dazzling displays of tech grooviness.

What’s Hot and What’s Not for 2009?
In Out
Social Capital Socialbation
Micro-sharing Blogging
LinkedIn Facebook
Great UI/UX Emailing support
Video Conferencing Travel
Nokia iPhone
Casual Business Casual
Macs PCs
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In: Social Capital Out: Socialbation.
Enterprises that leverage the deep intellectual assets and informal networks (inside and
outside) the organization will soar this year. The tired practice of “socialbation” (the self-
gratifying act of pontificating about social media to fellow social media enthusiasts) will
become less interesting, even for voyeurs.
In: Micro-sharing Out: Blogging. Sorry, the trend will only accelerate this year.
In: LinkedIn Out: Facebook The recession and pressure to leverage business relationships
will find a welcome partner in LinkedIn. Facebook is for after school; LinkedIn will finally
prove useful.
In: Great UI/UX Out: Emailing Support. The most important element of software design will
be superb UI/UX. If I can’t figure out how to do something in less than 10 seconds, I’m
already gone.
In: Video conferencing. Out: Travel. Strict T&A diets go into eect 1Q and stay all year. For
the “Never got a lift out of lear jets” crowd, this is a welcome development.
In: Nokia Out: iPhone. Just a hunch, unsubstantiated.
In: Casual Out: Business Casual. Boots, jeans, flats, pony tails-- it’s all good. Dressing for
success is about your Twitter background, not your designer digs.
In: Macs Out: PCs. Just a casual airport terminal observation. Is it just me?

ITSinsider blog
Happy 2009 Twitter/ITSinsider
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