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De groot talk_iscram drr
 

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Talk by Gerard de Groot (Tilburg University) on Disaster Risk Reduction for ISCRAM summer school 2011

Talk by Gerard de Groot (Tilburg University) on Disaster Risk Reduction for ISCRAM summer school 2011

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    De groot talk_iscram drr De groot talk_iscram drr Presentation Transcript

    • Disaster Risk Reduction
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
      Cordaid Presentation
      2
      HISTORY OF DISASTER MANEGEMENT
      Yokohoma strategy and plan for a safer world (May 1994)
      “Disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and relief are four elements which contribute to and gain from the implementation of sustainable development policies. These elements, along with environmental protection and sustainable development, are closely interrelated.”
      “Disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and objectives of the Decade. Disaster response alone is not sufficient, as it yields only temporary results at a very high cost.”
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      KEY ASSUMPTION
      core assumption disaster risk reduction (DRR)
      Disaster risk reduction is based upon the assumption that (natural) disasters will have a long-term negative impact on the development of underdeveloped countries.
      HOWEVER there are critical notes
      Aghion and Howitt (“Endogenous growth theory”, 1998) argue that disasters tend to have a positive long term spin-off effects on development due to technological improvements. The technological improvement can be explained from reconstruction activities.
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
      Cordaid Presentation
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      A PILOT STUDY IN NORTHERN KENYA
      objectives of the study
      The objective of the study is to quantify the impact of disaster risk reduction interventions in Kenya and determine the cost-effectiveness of long term DRR compared to short term emergency relief and rehabilitation.
      Moreover, the study will be a starting point of a future study on the qualitative long term impact of DRR intervention and to determine future direction.
      Cost-benefit analysis requires information on long term impact of disasters!
    • The Black Swan
      A black swan has three major characteristics:
      It is anoutlier, thereforeverydifficult to predict
      Itcarriesan extreme impact
      It has retrospective (thoughnotprospective) predictability
      Examples: the 9/11 attacks, the Dutch hunger winter, the stock market crash of 1929, NOT the present drought in the Horn of Africa
      Yet we act as if the phenomenon does notexist!
      (Source: NassimTaleb – The Black Swan. The impact of the highlyimprobable, 2007)
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Disaster in the Netherlands: Hunger winter
      Short (sixmonthsbefore the end of Second World War) butsevere
      Affectedlarge, healthy and stablepopulationgroup
      Was documentedprecisely
      Ended as abruptly as itstarted
      Killed some 20,000 people (out of a population of 3.5 million)
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Sampling
      Startingpopulation: 5,425 baby’s born in a hospital in Amsterdam
      Bornfrom 1 November 1943 till 28 februari 1947
      Excluded: earlybirths, twins
      160 baby’s werenotregisteredwith the municipality
      99 baby’s couldnotbetraced
      Deceasedbefore start of study in 1994: 10%
      164 peoplerefused to particpate
      Twocontrolgroups of 650 baby’s
      Final sample: 2,414
      Howrepresentative is the sample?
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • The negative impact of malnutrition, 50years later
      Heartdiseases
      Lungdiseases
      Stress
      Diabetes
      Causalrelationbetween disaster and impact?
      What are appropriateinterventions?
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      CHANGING CONSENSUS ON DISASTER RISK APPROACH
      1950s – 1960s: disaster = interruption of development process
      emergency relief as sole disaster response
      limited disaster preparedness
      1970s – 1980s: development strategies included disaster risk mitigation
      disaster risk mitigation mainly technical
      1990s – to date: disaster risk reduction mainstreamed in development strategies technical mitigation combined with strengthening of social structures increasing coping capacities and decreasing vulnerability
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)
      relation vulnerability and coping capacity
      there is no uniform definition of coping; definitions can be classified into two groups
      [1] coping can be considered as an ex post disaster activity indicating that coping capacities do not effect vulnerability
      [2] coping can be affiliated with both ex ante and ex post disaster action: coping aimed at decreasing vulnerability and coping related to containment of possible impacts of a hazard
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      “DISASTER PRESURE AND RELEASE”-MODEL
      developed by Blaikie et al
      explains disaster risks from a macro perspective where vulnerability is defined as:
      “… characteristic of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover form the impact of a natural hazard.”
      “At risk, second edition: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters”, Wisner et al., 2003
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
      definition UNISDR
      The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks and throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse impact of hazards, within he broad context of sustainable development.
      source: “Living With Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”, UNISDR
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
      relation disaster risks and hazards
      D = disaster
      IH = total impact hazard
      IHx = total hazard on demography, economy, environment, social structures
      R = disaster risk
    • 17-8-2011 22:40
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      HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
      coping as ex ante and ex post disaster activity
      CEAC = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at limitation of impact
      CEAV = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at vulnerability reduction
      CEP = ex post disaster coping capacity of population at stake
      FGV = factors generating vulnerability
      FEV = factors enhancing vulnerability
      H = (magnitude of the) hazard
      IH = total impact hazard
      V = vulnerability of population at stake
    • Drought Cycle Management (DCM) Model
      DCM stresses the need for continuity between activities aimed at development, relief and rehabilitation and distinguishes between four stages:
      Normal: sufficient rain, focus on mitigation activities
      Alert and alarm: First signs of drought, focus on preparation
      Relief: food and water shortages result in hunger and death, focus on emergency relief
      Recovery: reconstruction, focus on restocking, capacity building, infrastructure, natural resource management
      DCM model aims to increase resilience and coping capacity of communities and households to reduce disaster risk
      THIS SHOULD PROVIDE YOU WITH A FIRST LINK TO YOUR CHALLENGE: COME UP WITH THE UNDISCOVERED SOLUTION
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • The sampling frame
      Fourdistrictswereselected, pairingdistrictswith high and low levels of external disaster management intervention (Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir)
      Secondary data werecollectedfor district profiles to construct a district vulnerability index
      Primary data werecollected at households (extendedfamiles): 50 foreach district, basedon a standard questionnaire
      How representative is our own sample?
      Four different models werespecified
      PROBIT techniqueswereused to estimate relations between variables
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Measuringvulnerability
      Vulnerability is a multidimensional factor, embodying the combinedeffects of unsafeconditions. We derivedproxies at the district level for the fourelements of the PAR model relating to:
      Physical environment (weighteddroughtfrequency)
      Localeconomy(humanpoverty index)
      Social relations (populationgrowth)
      Public actions(access to health, school enrollment)
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Measuringhousehold disaster risk
      The household level foodconsumption deficit representsanidealdependentvariable, but is extremelydifficult to measure.
      Four coping mechanisms have been used as proxies:
      Liquidation of productiveassets
      Foodconsumptionadjustments
      Callingoncommunity level facilities
      Relianceonemergencyrelief
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Ex-post coping capacity of households
      Independent variable approximated by number of household characteristics:
      Asset ownership
      Proportion of economically active members
      Dependency ratio
      Educational attainment
      Gender and age of household heads
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • Strengthening ex-ante coping capacity applied in DCM model
      Households can prepare themselves against adverse impacts through different actions such as:
      Income diversification
      Livestock diversification
      Water reserve capacity
      Use of common pastures
      17-8-2011 22:40
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    • The impact of droughtcycle management
      Three out of four indicators of household disaster risk decreasewhenhouseholds have coping capacities as stimulated and reinforcedby the DCM model (ex ante):
      Sustainablelivestock management systems
      Incomediversfication
      Water conservation
      Community level safety net structures (e.g. Credit)
      Reservinggrazing areas couldnotbeshown as a significant coping strategy
      17-8-2011 22:40
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