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  • 1. Disaster Risk Reduction
  • 2. 17-8-2011 22:40
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    HISTORY OF DISASTER MANEGEMENT
    Yokohoma strategy and plan for a safer world (May 1994)
    “Disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and relief are four elements which contribute to and gain from the implementation of sustainable development policies. These elements, along with environmental protection and sustainable development, are closely interrelated.”
    “Disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and objectives of the Decade. Disaster response alone is not sufficient, as it yields only temporary results at a very high cost.”
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    KEY ASSUMPTION
    core assumption disaster risk reduction (DRR)
    Disaster risk reduction is based upon the assumption that (natural) disasters will have a long-term negative impact on the development of underdeveloped countries.
    HOWEVER there are critical notes
    Aghion and Howitt (“Endogenous growth theory”, 1998) argue that disasters tend to have a positive long term spin-off effects on development due to technological improvements. The technological improvement can be explained from reconstruction activities.
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    A PILOT STUDY IN NORTHERN KENYA
    objectives of the study
    The objective of the study is to quantify the impact of disaster risk reduction interventions in Kenya and determine the cost-effectiveness of long term DRR compared to short term emergency relief and rehabilitation.
    Moreover, the study will be a starting point of a future study on the qualitative long term impact of DRR intervention and to determine future direction.
    Cost-benefit analysis requires information on long term impact of disasters!
  • 5. The Black Swan
    A black swan has three major characteristics:
    It is anoutlier, thereforeverydifficult to predict
    Itcarriesan extreme impact
    It has retrospective (thoughnotprospective) predictability
    Examples: the 9/11 attacks, the Dutch hunger winter, the stock market crash of 1929, NOT the present drought in the Horn of Africa
    Yet we act as if the phenomenon does notexist!
    (Source: NassimTaleb – The Black Swan. The impact of the highlyimprobable, 2007)
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  • 6. Disaster in the Netherlands: Hunger winter
    Short (sixmonthsbefore the end of Second World War) butsevere
    Affectedlarge, healthy and stablepopulationgroup
    Was documentedprecisely
    Ended as abruptly as itstarted
    Killed some 20,000 people (out of a population of 3.5 million)
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  • 7. Sampling
    Startingpopulation: 5,425 baby’s born in a hospital in Amsterdam
    Bornfrom 1 November 1943 till 28 februari 1947
    Excluded: earlybirths, twins
    160 baby’s werenotregisteredwith the municipality
    99 baby’s couldnotbetraced
    Deceasedbefore start of study in 1994: 10%
    164 peoplerefused to particpate
    Twocontrolgroups of 650 baby’s
    Final sample: 2,414
    Howrepresentative is the sample?
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  • 8. The negative impact of malnutrition, 50years later
    Heartdiseases
    Lungdiseases
    Stress
    Diabetes
    Causalrelationbetween disaster and impact?
    What are appropriateinterventions?
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    CHANGING CONSENSUS ON DISASTER RISK APPROACH
    1950s – 1960s: disaster = interruption of development process
    emergency relief as sole disaster response
    limited disaster preparedness
    1970s – 1980s: development strategies included disaster risk mitigation
    disaster risk mitigation mainly technical
    1990s – to date: disaster risk reduction mainstreamed in development strategies technical mitigation combined with strengthening of social structures increasing coping capacities and decreasing vulnerability
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    HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)
    relation vulnerability and coping capacity
    there is no uniform definition of coping; definitions can be classified into two groups
    [1] coping can be considered as an ex post disaster activity indicating that coping capacities do not effect vulnerability
    [2] coping can be affiliated with both ex ante and ex post disaster action: coping aimed at decreasing vulnerability and coping related to containment of possible impacts of a hazard
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    “DISASTER PRESURE AND RELEASE”-MODEL
    developed by Blaikie et al
    explains disaster risks from a macro perspective where vulnerability is defined as:
    “… characteristic of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover form the impact of a natural hazard.”
    “At risk, second edition: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters”, Wisner et al., 2003
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  • 13. 17-8-2011 22:40
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    HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
    definition UNISDR
    The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks and throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse impact of hazards, within he broad context of sustainable development.
    source: “Living With Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”, UNISDR
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    HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
    relation disaster risks and hazards
    D = disaster
    IH = total impact hazard
    IHx = total hazard on demography, economy, environment, social structures
    R = disaster risk
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    HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK
    coping as ex ante and ex post disaster activity
    CEAC = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at limitation of impact
    CEAV = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at vulnerability reduction
    CEP = ex post disaster coping capacity of population at stake
    FGV = factors generating vulnerability
    FEV = factors enhancing vulnerability
    H = (magnitude of the) hazard
    IH = total impact hazard
    V = vulnerability of population at stake
  • 16. Drought Cycle Management (DCM) Model
    DCM stresses the need for continuity between activities aimed at development, relief and rehabilitation and distinguishes between four stages:
    Normal: sufficient rain, focus on mitigation activities
    Alert and alarm: First signs of drought, focus on preparation
    Relief: food and water shortages result in hunger and death, focus on emergency relief
    Recovery: reconstruction, focus on restocking, capacity building, infrastructure, natural resource management
    DCM model aims to increase resilience and coping capacity of communities and households to reduce disaster risk
    THIS SHOULD PROVIDE YOU WITH A FIRST LINK TO YOUR CHALLENGE: COME UP WITH THE UNDISCOVERED SOLUTION
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  • 17. The sampling frame
    Fourdistrictswereselected, pairingdistrictswith high and low levels of external disaster management intervention (Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir)
    Secondary data werecollectedfor district profiles to construct a district vulnerability index
    Primary data werecollected at households (extendedfamiles): 50 foreach district, basedon a standard questionnaire
    How representative is our own sample?
    Four different models werespecified
    PROBIT techniqueswereused to estimate relations between variables
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  • 18. Measuringvulnerability
    Vulnerability is a multidimensional factor, embodying the combinedeffects of unsafeconditions. We derivedproxies at the district level for the fourelements of the PAR model relating to:
    Physical environment (weighteddroughtfrequency)
    Localeconomy(humanpoverty index)
    Social relations (populationgrowth)
    Public actions(access to health, school enrollment)
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  • 19. Measuringhousehold disaster risk
    The household level foodconsumption deficit representsanidealdependentvariable, but is extremelydifficult to measure.
    Four coping mechanisms have been used as proxies:
    Liquidation of productiveassets
    Foodconsumptionadjustments
    Callingoncommunity level facilities
    Relianceonemergencyrelief
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  • 20. Ex-post coping capacity of households
    Independent variable approximated by number of household characteristics:
    Asset ownership
    Proportion of economically active members
    Dependency ratio
    Educational attainment
    Gender and age of household heads
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  • 21. Strengthening ex-ante coping capacity applied in DCM model
    Households can prepare themselves against adverse impacts through different actions such as:
    Income diversification
    Livestock diversification
    Water reserve capacity
    Use of common pastures
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  • 22. The impact of droughtcycle management
    Three out of four indicators of household disaster risk decreasewhenhouseholds have coping capacities as stimulated and reinforcedby the DCM model (ex ante):
    Sustainablelivestock management systems
    Incomediversfication
    Water conservation
    Community level safety net structures (e.g. Credit)
    Reservinggrazing areas couldnotbeshown as a significant coping strategy
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