M C COMBS REIT FUND | HEALTHCARE PAIRS ANALYSISISHTMEET SINGH            SHUOYU LI               HAMMAD RAHMAN            ...
TABLE OF CONTENTSAGENDARECOMMENDATION               3HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW   4PAIRS ANALYSIS               19REIT ANA...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWRECOMMENDATION  Ticker        Company Name                 DJ REIT   MCCOMBS     Recommendation ...
HEALTHCARE TRENDS                                                                       HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW• Health...
DEMOGRAPHICS                              GOVERNMENT REIMBURSEMENT                                                        ...
HEALTHCARE REITs                                                                       HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW• REITs o...
SENIOR HOUSING                 7                     7
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Declining Cap Rates• Discretionary in nature with shallow demand pool depending...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Good Demand and Low Supply• 85+ population growth almost at par with general po...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Cash Coverage• Low operator cash flow to rent coverage                         ...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING - TYPESIndependent Living Community• Seniors that can take care of themselves and...
SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES                             12                                  12
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSKILLED NURSING FACILITIES (SNF)• Tenant operating margins directly affected by Medicarereimburs...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSKILLED NURSING FACILITIES (SNF)• Increasing risk perceived in Skilled Nursing leading to highes...
MEDICAL OFFICE BUILDING (MOB)                                15                                     15
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWMEDICAL OFFICE BUILDINGS (MOB)• MOBs lease space to doctors hence somewhat exposed to Medicarere...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWRIDEA – REIT Industry Diversification and Empowerment Act• Adopted in 2008. Represent 15% of NOI...
HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWMAJOR PLAYERS TICKER                     PRICE               MKT CAP   DJ REIT   MCCOMBS        ...
PAIRS ANALYSISVTR AND SNH PAIRS ANALYSISSIMILAR ASSET     DIFFERENT         HIGHCLASSES           TENANT            CORREL...
REIT ANALYSIS – SNH                      20                           20
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH Overview•   Primary senior housing and medical office building throughout the U.S.•   Founded 1999;...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Geographic Exposure• Properties in 38 states and Washing, D.C.• Revenues mainly come from Califor...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Five Star is SNH’s largest tenant, comprising 49% of...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Operates a total of 245 communities with diversified...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Portfolio rent coverage is strong                   ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Conservative financial approach                     ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Long term leases                                    ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Property Type• Senior Housing (ALF, ILF, and SNF) = 61%• MOB = 31%                               ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Occupancy• Senior Housing = 87%       • Growth potential once the economy recovers• MOB       • S...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Investment Rationale• Proven record of consistently strong financial performance.       • Driven ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - Upcoming Maturity Dates • Current Liquidity:        • Cash and Cash Equivalents = $23.6 Million  ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - Financials                Key Statistics                         Dividend Discount (SNH)  Price/s...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNH SNH - Dividend Discount ModelANALYSISTotal Dividends                           $0.38   $0.38    $0.40 ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - History of consistently raising the dividend                                                     35
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Nav Cap Rate Break Down• Cap Rate = 7.91 %                                36
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Implied Cap Rate                                     NOIt+1 $ Millions   $421,725   $445,154   $4...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - FFO/Share 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50                                                                    ...
REIT ANALYSIS - SNHPros•   Relatively cheap (-7.7% NAV Premium)•   Strong relationship with top tenant (Five Star)•   Cons...
REIT ANALYSIS – VTR                      40                           40
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR Overview• Geographically diverse portfolio of senior housing and healthcare  properties throughout ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Leadership• Debra Cafaro - Chairman and CEO      • CEO since 1999 & Chairman since 2003      • Pa...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Development Strategy• Moving into profitable MOB market      • Progress: Cogdell Spencer acquisit...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Geographic Exposure• Properties in 47 states and 2 Canadian provinces• Primary markets include th...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Tenants• Kindred rents up for renewal, expecting to not renew 64 properties• Rent coverage ratio:...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Properties• Industry-high asset diversification       • Responsible for low stock volatility• Gro...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – M&A / Properties                                                                         CogdellE...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Upcoming Maturity Dates • Extremely low cost of borrowing • Current Liquidity:        • Cash and ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Financials                Key Statistics                             Dividend Discount  Price/sha...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTR VTR - Dividend Discount ModelANALYSISTotal Dividends                           $0.62   $0.62    $0.62 ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRNAV Cap Rate Breakdown• Applied Cap Rate = 7.20 %• Analyst Cap Rates:       • Citi = 6.10 %       • Bai...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Implied Cap Rate                                     NOIt+1 $ Millions   $1,375,497   $1,451,914 ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Dividends vs. FFO4.00       8.5% Average FFO Growth                   68% FFO Payout Ratio       ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - FFO/Share 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80                                                                    ...
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Price/FFO18.0                               17.0                                          15.916....
REIT ANALYSIS - VTRPros•   Low cost of borrowing allows competitive M&A position•   Relatively low Debt-to-Total Cap value...
FINAL COMPARISION – VTR AND SNH                                  57                                       57
FINAL COMPARISONFINAL COMPARISON           METRIC                         VTR      SNH           Price                    ...
VTR STRENGTHS                                                                          FINAL COMPARISON                   ...
QUESTIONS            60                 60
APPENDIX           61                61
APPENDIXAPPENDIX                 Price/FFO FFO/share 2011 Price 2011 FFO 2012 FFO 2012 Price Price                        ...
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Healthcare REIT pair

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This is a presentation of my work alongwith two undergraduate analysts for the McCombs REIT Fund. We analyzed a healthcare pair including Ventas and Senior Housing.

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  • -VTR is diversified both in geography and more importantly in asset class; -VTR terminal dividend growth 6.2%-SNH acquisition activity was only $1B
  • -Currently 56% of healthcare expense private. Shrinking over the years but may increase now.-Healthcare spending expected to grow at 6% till 2020. Will become 20% of US GDP by 2020-The health care REIT industry continues to be highly fractured and many further opportunities for consolidation exist.
  • -3.65M baby boomers retire every year. One of the strongest economic trends in US. Currently about 15% of US population.-Healthcare REITs gobbled $27B worth senior housing. Ventas has 100k units after NHP acquisition-Avg occupancy in senior housing is 88%-2% overall cut in medicare payments with risk of further reductions-5% weighted avg. yield for healthcare REITs-Broader consolidation doesn’t necessarily have positive impact on sector. –ve market sentiment has more +ve impact-The health care REIT industry continues to be highly fractured and many further opportunities for consolidation exist
  • -Only 8% of healthcare properties owned by public REITs as opposed to 60% by mall REITs
  • -Declining cap rates and low occupancy-Somewhat cyclical in terms of higher revenue in first quarter
  • -CMS cut 11.2% for 2012 which will trigger lease term adjustments.
  • -CMS cut 11.2% for 2012 which will trigger lease term adjustments.
  • -Affordable Care Act adds 32 million uninsured Americans to affordable healthcare making it likely to use more MOB than emergency room-Occupancy for SNH MOBs higher than VTRs-Slow supply also due to regulations such as ‘certificate of need’
  • -Sale-leaseback transactions provide an alternative avenue to address the maturing loans while allowing the OpCos to continue operations.-RIDEA creates operating risk exposing REIT to market volatility
  • Same-store NOI for 2012 is 7.7%
  • Same-store NOI for 2012 is 7.7%
  • High cap rates
  • External management, cost and experience
  • Same-store NOI for 2012 is 7.7%
  • -34.8% Compounded annual return from 2000-2010
  • Healthcare REIT pair

    1. 1. M C COMBS REIT FUND | HEALTHCARE PAIRS ANALYSISISHTMEET SINGH SHUOYU LI HAMMAD RAHMAN 1
    2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTSAGENDARECOMMENDATION 3HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW 4PAIRS ANALYSIS 19REIT ANALYSIS - SNH 20REIT ANALYSIS - VTR 40FINAL COMPARISON 57APPENDIX 61 2
    3. 3. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWRECOMMENDATION Ticker Company Name DJ REIT MCCOMBS Recommendation Index REIT Fund SNH SENIOR HOUSING 1.00% 0.87% UNDERWEIGHT PROPERTIES TRUST VTR VENTAS, INC 2.72% 3.97% OVERWEIGHT VTR + VENTAS + 4.47% 3.97% - NHP* NATIONWIDE HEALTH* VTR acquired NHP in July 2011 for $7.6B We recommend Overweight VTR 50 bps due to the following reasons: • High growth and diversification strategy; $11B M&A in 2011 • Diversified portfolio with largest tenant representing only 17% of NOI • Consistent NOI and dividend growth; 8% dividend growth for 2012 VTR SNH DDM IRR 10.8% 11.7% NAV IRR 14.8% 16.6% 3
    4. 4. HEALTHCARE TRENDS HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW• Healthcare spending is close to 18% of US GDP. The group is poisedto become the fifth ‘food group’.• Healthcare spending has grown at 10% CAGR since 1965. Increasingpublic spending is not sustainable• Quality assets, recession resilience and stable cash flows• Healthcare REIT index outperformed broader REIT index in 2011 by230bps. Average healthcare REIT dividend yield 5% 4
    5. 5. DEMOGRAPHICS GOVERNMENT REIMBURSEMENT HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW• Aging baby boomer 65+ group • Declining Medicare and Medicaid growing 5x faster than national avg. payments affect tenant revenues• 65+ group uses healthcare 2x national • 11.3% reimbursement cut to 2012 avg. SNF (Skilled Nursing Facility)• 3.65mm baby boomers retire every Medicare payments year • REITs drifting towards assets with• Healthcare reform may add 32mm revenues from private insurance or Americans to insurance rolls individual savings 5
    6. 6. HEALTHCARE REITs HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEW• REITs own only 8% of the $1 trillion healthcare real estate market• Mall REITs own 60% in their segment 6
    7. 7. SENIOR HOUSING 7 7
    8. 8. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Declining Cap Rates• Discretionary in nature with shallow demand pool depending onhousing prices, stock market, overall economy• Occupancy in low-mid 80% range• Cap rates have recently declined to below 7% levels 8
    9. 9. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Good Demand and Low Supply• 85+ population growth almost at par with general population in nearterm. Grows faster eventually• Limited new supply of senior housing 9
    10. 10. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING – Cash Coverage• Low operator cash flow to rent coverage VTR Senior Housing coverage SNH Senior Housing coverage 10
    11. 11. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSENIOR HOUSING - TYPESIndependent Living Community• Seniors that can take care of themselves and need high degree ofindependence• Few amenities such as meals, maid service for additional monthly feeAssisted Living Community• Typically one bedroom with efficiency kitchen and bathroom• More amenities such as laundry, dressing/bathing bundled in chargesNursing Homes• Extensive nursing and healthcare services similar to hospitals• Staffed with licensed nursing professionals 24-hrs 11
    12. 12. SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES 12 12
    13. 13. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSKILLED NURSING FACILITIES (SNF)• Tenant operating margins directly affected by Medicarereimbursement cuts• More ‘need-based’ hence independent of housing trends 13
    14. 14. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWSKILLED NURSING FACILITIES (SNF)• Increasing risk perceived in Skilled Nursing leading to highest cap ratesamong Senior Housing asset typesSource: 2011 Senior Housing Investment Survey;http://www.slvsinc.com/Vol.17.2011.pdf 14
    15. 15. MEDICAL OFFICE BUILDING (MOB) 15 15
    16. 16. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWMEDICAL OFFICE BUILDINGS (MOB)• MOBs lease space to doctors hence somewhat exposed to Medicarereimbursements• Expected to climb if Affordable Care Act passes• Same store NOI increased 2.4% on average• Vacancy down from 13.5% in 2009 to 12.4%; new supply slow at 1.1% 16
    17. 17. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWRIDEA – REIT Industry Diversification and Empowerment Act• Adopted in 2008. Represent 15% of NOI on industry average• REIT leases property to TRS and TRS enters in to managementcontract for operating the asset receiving a management fee• Acts as bridge for collaboration between REITs and operators• Opportunity for REIT to redevelop/expand and improveoperations of properties owned• Allows REIT to keep part of building’s operating income usingTaxable REIT Subsidiary (TRS). Presents exposure to operationalrisk• ‘TRS 25% test’ limits a REIT to own upto 25% asset value in TRS• Example: Ventas purchased Atria Senior Living in October 2010under RIDEA structure. SNH intends to put most newacquisitions into this structure 17
    18. 18. HEALTHCARE SECTOR OVERVIEWMAJOR PLAYERS TICKER PRICE MKT CAP DJ REIT MCCOMBS INDEX REIT FUND HCN $53.46 $11.42B 2.75% 3.52% HCP $38.62 $15.85B 4.36% 3.57% HR $21.75 $1.71B 0.43% 0.00% SNH $22.12 $3.6B 1.00% 0.87% VTR $55.50 $16.03B 2.72% 3.97%Source: Google Finance; Prices as of 04/05/12 18
    19. 19. PAIRS ANALYSISVTR AND SNH PAIRS ANALYSISSIMILAR ASSET DIFFERENT HIGHCLASSES TENANT CORRELATION Time EXPOSURE Horizon Correlation• MOB • 96% OVER 3-YR.• SENIOR LIVING PERIOD 2 yr. 0.80 • LARGEST VTR• SKILLED TENANT IS 17% • SIMILAR BETA 3 yr. 0.96 NURSING NOI VTR - 1.45, 5 yr. 0.97 FACILITIES • LARGEST SNH SNH - 1.61 7 yr. 0.97• HOSPITALS TENANT IS 49% 10 yr. 0.98 NOI 19
    20. 20. REIT ANALYSIS – SNH 20 20
    21. 21. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH Overview• Primary senior housing and medical office building throughout the U.S.• Founded 1999; based in Newton, MA• $3.6B equity market cap• Approximately 560 tenants• Total properties: 376
    22. 22. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Geographic Exposure• Properties in 38 states and Washing, D.C.• Revenues mainly come from California (23.7%), Massachusetts (11.0%), and New York (9.4%)
    23. 23. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Five Star is SNH’s largest tenant, comprising 49% of NOI• SNH maintained a close relationship with Five Star 23
    24. 24. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Operates a total of 245 communities with diversified operations across 30 states• Owns and operates 31 private pay communities• Annual revenues over $1 billion with 24,500 employees• 73% of senior living revenues are private pay• Of the four largest publicly traded operators, Five Star alone has been profitable over the last two years 24
    25. 25. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Portfolio rent coverage is strong 25
    26. 26. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Conservative financial approach 26
    27. 27. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Tenants: Five Star Quality Care (NYSE: FVE)• Long term leases 27
    28. 28. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Property Type• Senior Housing (ALF, ILF, and SNF) = 61%• MOB = 31% 29
    29. 29. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Occupancy• Senior Housing = 87% • Growth potential once the economy recovers• MOB • Strong rent growth in 2011• 94% of NOI derived from properties that are primarily private pay and not government-dependent 30
    30. 30. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Investment Rationale• Proven record of consistently strong financial performance. • Driven by a conservative financial approach and a strong balance sheet. • SNH is rated investment grade by Moody’s (Baa3) and S&P (BBB-). • Manageable debt maturities.• Strong access to capital. • In 2011, SNH raised a total of over $1 billion dollars in capital markets transactions. • In June, SNH entered a new $750 million unsecured revolving credit facility (maturity of June 2015, with borrower’s option to extend one year; interest is set a LIBOR plus 160 basis points).• Portfolio is characterized by: • Predominantly private pay assets with limited exposure to Government reimbursement. • Geographic, tenant and asset diversification. • Extremely high quality assets with low historical per unit, per square foot or per bed costs. 31
    31. 31. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - Upcoming Maturity Dates • Current Liquidity: • Cash and Cash Equivalents = $23.6 Million • Unused Revolver capacity = $750 Million • Total Liquidity = $773.6 Million 32
    32. 32. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - Financials Key Statistics Dividend Discount (SNH) Price/share $22.12 Leveraged Cost of Equity 11.2% 52-week range $19.09-$24.64 Implied Dividend Growth 4.2% Market Cap $3.6B NOI Growth 2.6% DDM IRR 11.7% Current Financial Position Total Debt $1.8B Net Asset Value (NAV) FFO/Share $1.73 Implied NAV $4.096 ($m) Price/FFO 13.49 Implied NAV/Share $23.95 AFFO/Share $ 1.61 Premium/(Discount) -7.7% AFFO Payout Ratio 93.2% NAV IRR 16.6% Debt-to-Total Cap 33.4% Debt-to-Equity 73.9% Int. Coverage Ratio 3.5x 33
    33. 33. REIT ANALYSIS - SNH SNH - Dividend Discount ModelANALYSISTotal Dividends $0.38 $0.38 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.42 $0.42PaidFFO/Per Share $0.46 $0.47 $0.49 $0.50 $$0.51 $0.52 $0.54 $0.55FFO Payout Ratio 82.3% 80.3% 82.4% 80.4% 78.4% 76.4% 78.2% 76.3%AFFO/Per Share $0.41 $0.42 $0.43 $0.44 $0.45 $0.47 $0.48 $0.49AFFO Payout 92.6% 90.3% 92.7% 90.4% 88.1% 86.0% 88.0% 85.8%RatioExpected LTDividend Growth 3.95% Management stated constant growth for 2012Rate (Annual)  Beta = 1.61, 5-year daily returns regressed on S&P  Levered cost of equity: 11.2%  Annualized IRR = 11.7% 34
    34. 34. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - History of consistently raising the dividend 35
    35. 35. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Nav Cap Rate Break Down• Cap Rate = 7.91 % 36
    36. 36. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH – Implied Cap Rate NOIt+1 $ Millions $421,725 $445,154 $468,583 $492,012 $515,441 5.91% $31.04 $33.36 $35.67 $37.99 $40.31 6.41% $27.78 $29.92 $32.06 $34.20 $36.33 6.91% $25.00 $26.98 $28.97 $30.95 $32.93 7.41% $22.59 $24.44 $26.29 $28.14 $29.99 7.91% $20.49 $22.22 $23.95 $25.68 $27.42 8.41% $18.64 $20.26 $21.89 $23.52 $25.15 8.91% $16.99 $18.53 $20.07 $21.60 $23.14 9.41% $15.52 $16.98 $18.43 $19.89 $21.34 9.91% $14.20 $15.58 $16.96 $18.34 $19.73 37
    37. 37. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHSNH - FFO/Share 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 +1 SD 0.40 Mean -1 SD 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FFO/Share Mean +1 Std. Dev. -1 Std. Dev. 38
    38. 38. REIT ANALYSIS - SNHPros• Relatively cheap (-7.7% NAV Premium)• Strong relationship with top tenant (Five Star)• Conservative investment strategy• High exposure to senior housing (56%) and MOB (31%), both will benefit from private pay and economy recoveryCons• Large portion or revenue comes from single tenant• External management no longer common in the industry
    39. 39. REIT ANALYSIS – VTR 40 40
    40. 40. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR Overview• Geographically diverse portfolio of senior housing and healthcare properties throughout the U.S. and Canada• Founded 1983; based in Chicago, Illinois• $16.3B equity market cap• Total properties: 1,378
    41. 41. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Leadership• Debra Cafaro - Chairman and CEO • CEO since 1999 & Chairman since 2003 • Past Chair of National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT)• Raymond Lewis - President• Richard Schweinhart – Chief Financial Officer• John Cobb – Chief Investment Officer• Timothy Doman – Chief Portfolio Officer 42
    42. 42. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Development Strategy• Moving into profitable MOB market • Progress: Cogdell Spencer acquisition – 72 high-quality MOBs • Low cost of capital - $600M 10-year bonds @ 4.25%• Large holding in resilient Senior Housing market • Progress: Ventas is the largest Senior Housing REIT• High quality properties • Progress: Properties have average 2.1x rent coverage• Diversification • Progress: Many tenants and large geographic exposure 43
    43. 43. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Geographic Exposure• Properties in 47 states and 2 Canadian provinces• Primary markets include the West Coast and New England region
    44. 44. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Tenants• Kindred rents up for renewal, expecting to not renew 64 properties• Rent coverage ratio: 2.1x• Good tenant spread relative to peers, Top 5 = 59% NOI Kindred, 18% Other, 22% Emeritus, 2% Avamere, 2% Atria, 14% Elmcroft, 6% Sunrise, 11% Brookdale, 12 % MOBs, 12% 45
    45. 45. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Properties• Industry-high asset diversification • Responsible for low stock volatility• Growing MOB properties Senior Housing Hospital, 7.80% - operating, 25.0 MOB, 15.60% 0% Senior SNF, 23.40% Housing, 28.20 % 46
    46. 46. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – M&A / Properties CogdellElderTrust, Sunrise Spencer, $ $102M REIT, $1B 247M 11/03 4/05 1/07 3/11 12/11 Provident, NHP, $607M $5.8B Properties 1400 1200 1286 1000 800 600 602 400 523 511 505 452 380 200 245 245 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 47
    47. 47. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Upcoming Maturity Dates • Extremely low cost of borrowing • Current Liquidity: • Cash and Cash Equivalents = $45.8 Million • Unused Revolver capacity = $2,000 Million • Total Liquidity = $2,045.8 Million 48
    48. 48. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - Financials Key Statistics Dividend Discount Price/share $55.50 Levered Cost of Equity 10.4% 52-week range $43.25-$59.05 Implied Dividend Growth 6.2% Market Cap $16.03B NOI Growth 7.2% DDM IRR 10.8% Current Financial Position Total Debt $6.44B Net Asset Value (NAV) FFO/Share $1.24 NAV $13,353.3 ($m) Price/FFO 15.5 NAV/Share $50.87 AFFO/Share $1.19 Premium/(Discount) 9.1% AFFO Payout Ratio 74.5% NAV IRR 14.8% Debt-to-Equity 67.97% Debt-to-Total Cap 28.58% Int. Coverage Ratio 4.5x 49
    49. 49. REIT ANALYSIS - VTR VTR - Dividend Discount ModelANALYSISTotal Dividends $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.63 $0.63 $0.63 $0.63PaidFFO/Per Share $0.87 $0.88 $0.94 $0.97 $0.96 $0.97 $0.98 $0.99FFO Payout Ratio 71.4% 70.6% 66.1% 64.4% 65.2% 64.6% 64.2% 63.3%AFFO/Per Share $0.83 $0.84 $0.90 $0.92 $0.92 $0.93 $0.93 $0.95AFFO Payout 75.0% 74.1% 69.2% 67.3% 68.3% 67.5% 67.2% 66.1%RatioExpected LTDividend Growth 6.19% Management stated dividend growth of 8% for 2012Rate (Annual)  Beta = 1.45, 5-year daily returns regressed on S&P  Levered cost of equity: 10.4%  Annualized IRR = 10.8% 50
    50. 50. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRNAV Cap Rate Breakdown• Applied Cap Rate = 7.20 %• Analyst Cap Rates: • Citi = 6.10 % • Baird = 7.72 % 51
    51. 51. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Implied Cap Rate NOIt+1 $ Millions $1,375,497 $1,451,914 $1,528,330 $1,604,747 $1,681,163 9.20% $29.27 $32.13 $34.99 $37.85 $40.71 8.70% $32.23 $35.25 $38.28 $41.30 $44.32 8.20% $35.55 $38.76 $41.96 $45.17 $48.38 7.70% $39.30 $42.71 $46.13 $49.54 $52.96 7.20% $43.57 $47.22 $50.87 $54.52 $58.17 6.70% $48.47 $52.40 $56.32 $60.25 $64.17 6.20% $54.17 $58.41 $62.65 $66.89 $71.13 5.70% $60.87 $65.48 $70.09 $74.70 $79.32 5.20% $68.85 $73.91 $78.96 $84.02 $89.08 52
    52. 52. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Dividends vs. FFO4.00 8.5% Average FFO Growth 68% FFO Payout Ratio 3.663.50 3.373.00 2.88 2.69 2.71 2.68 2.44 2.482.50 2.30 2.09 2.14 2.05 2.052.00 1.90 1.58 1.441.501.000.500.00 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Dividends FFO 53
    53. 53. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR - FFO/Share 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 +1 Std. dev. 0.60 Mean 0.40 -1 Std. dev. 0.20 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(0.20) FFO/Share Mean -1 Std. Dev. +1 Std. Dev 54
    54. 54. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRVTR – Price/FFO18.0 17.0 15.916.0 15.3 14.8 14.3 14.114.0 13.512.0 10.5 10.510.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 HCP HCN SNH OHI HR NHI MPW LTC VTR 55
    55. 55. REIT ANALYSIS - VTRPros• Low cost of borrowing allows competitive M&A position• Relatively low Debt-to-Total Cap value leaves room for further leveraging• Large portion of NOI comes from private pay• Diversified tenant base• High-quality properties• Multiple healthcare marketsCons• Trades at a significant NAV premium• One top tenant dropping properties
    56. 56. FINAL COMPARISION – VTR AND SNH 57 57
    57. 57. FINAL COMPARISONFINAL COMPARISON METRIC VTR SNH Price $55.50 $22.12 Market Cap (Billions) $16.03 $3.60 Implied NAV/Share $50.87 $23.95 Price/NAV Premium (Discount) 9.1% (7.7%) FFO/Share $1.24 $1.73 AFFO/Share $1.19 $1.61 AFFO Payout Ratio 74.5% 93.2% Price/FFO 15.5 13.5 Price/AFFO 16.5 13.7 NAV IRR 13.6% 16.6% Dividend Yield 4.49% 6.95% DDM IRR 10.8% 11.7% Debt Service Coverage 4.5x 3.5x Implied Cap Rate 6.1% 7.1% 58
    58. 58. VTR STRENGTHS FINAL COMPARISON VTR SNF Management and firm Same CEO since Managed by RMR structure 1999; 328 managing multiple employees REITs; 0 employees Norm. FFO/share growth 9% 1% Dividend growth 6.2% 3.9% Price / FFO 15.5 13.5VTR RISKS VTR SNF Exposure to Skilled Nursing 25% 4% Facilities (SNF) High Price/NAV Premium 9.1% (7.7%) Operational TRS risk 25% NOI 3.5% NOI Govt. pay exposure 30% 5% 59
    59. 59. QUESTIONS 60 60
    60. 60. APPENDIX 61 61
    61. 61. APPENDIXAPPENDIX Price/FFO FFO/share 2011 Price 2011 FFO 2012 FFO 2012 Price Price growth (A) (E) Increase VTR 15.5 9% $55.50 $3.37 3.6733 56.93615 2.588% ACTUAL SNH 13.5 1% $22.12 $1.73 1.7473 23.58855 6.639% VTR 16.11 9% $55.50 $3.37 3.6733 59.18465 6.639% TARGET SNH 13.5 1% $22.12 $1.73 1.7473 23.58855 6.639% 62

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