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Ринки реклами та дистрибуції в світі. Чого очікувати українським видавцям? Всесвітня Газетна Асоціація, WAN-IFRA, генеральний директор

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Ринки реклами та дистрибуції в світі. Чого очікувати українським видавцям? Всесвітня Газетна Асоціація, WAN-IFRA, генеральний директор

Ринки реклами та дистрибуції в світі. Чого очікувати українським видавцям? Всесвітня Газетна Асоціація, WAN-IFRA, генеральний директор

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  • 02.11.10 Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen It is my great pleasure today to address you on the subject
  • 02.11.10
  • UKRAINE ECONOMICAL SITUATION The World Financial crisis hit Ukraine in 2009, and GDP fell by 15,1% The only other country affected more was Latvia with 18% The real economy of the country was hit with lightning force Unemployment rose sharply The Media Market was also struck very hard by the crisis Public debt 30% of GDP (2009 est.),  20.1% of GDP (2008 est.)
  • DEMOGRAPHIC AND STRUCTURAL SITUATION UKRAINE Population : 46 Mio., 78% Ukrainer, 17% Russian, Kiew (ca. 2,7 Mio)  demographic crisis since 1980s because of its high death rate (highest in Europe) and a low birth rate (lowest in Europe).  population shrinking 150,000 a year migration (first years of Ukrainian independence). 1991 - 2004, 2.2 Mio. immigrated (2 Mio. former SU) 2.5 Mio. emigrated (1.9 Mio. moved to former SU) Currently immigrants 14.7 % of the total population (= 6.9 Mio.) 4th largest figure in the world 1.2 Mio. Canadians of Ukrainian ancestry (world's 3rd largest Ukrainian pop.) Literacy rate 99.4%: SU‘s emphasis on total access of education for all citizens, continues today organisation of higher education built up in accordance with the structure of education of the world's higher developed countries, as is defined by UNESCO and the UN 604 th. km2 (after Russia biggest country in Europe) Ukrainian road system has not been upgraded since the Soviet era, and is now outdated OPPORTUNITY ? Language Ukranian / Russian (India) News for immigrants (online) Young readers programme Online and mobile phone news due to distribution difficulties
  • Media consumption decreased TV decreased consumption much more than internet gained 2009 printed media lost attention – crisis year?
  • 02.11.10 Globally the reach of daily newspapers is 25%, based on the population of the globe in 2008/9 as reported by the World Bank and others such as the CIA. true reach of adults is higher as the global statistics are based on all citizens including children and many but not all of our readership statistics are based on adults. global importance of the daily newspaper with 1 in 4 reading a daily newspapers
  • European Nordic countries that dominate in terms of reaching their respective populations impressive Japan 9 out of 10 read a daily newspaper (127 Mio.) Ukraine average  room for improvement, Estonia, Poland  these reach figures emphasize the importance of the newspaper in terms of their impact on society and media consumption.
  • 02.11.10 ADVERTISING DIFFERENT ANGLES including outlook by Zenith Optimedia global ad spend for all media, report Zenith Optimedia was down by 11.4% in 2009 O TV stable growing, O Newspaper looks stable till 2009 before crisis ? O Internet gains
  • Globally: Newspapers till 2002 close to TV Ukraine: far away ¼ Outdoor and Magazines higher Ad expenditure than newspaper How generate Advertising revenue = room for improvement classified Rural newspaper India Local and hyperlocal
  • 02.11.10  Different view Big Three dominate advertising world market Remain so long term Substitution
  • Ukraine: 2nd. Magazines and Outdoor, not newspaper and internet
  • 02.11.10 BIG QUESTION: FREE, DIGITAL, PRINTED? digital revenues from advertising will never match those of print. Digital advertising is simply less effective model is based on low yields Future: Digital businesses (low yield) bigger impact  contribution of our paid content model more important  Digital business will contribute 50% or for many more towards our revenues in the future. translating our uniquely rich and valuable but expensive print content model to our digital businesses. Question: will content generate revenue ??? Not YES or NO, how in order to survive
  • 02.11.10 Circulation revenue dominant  = TREND 4 Content revenue = increasing importance in the revenue mix. Example: Circulation revenue through increased copy prices (Europe / India 2 cent) Paid for content in specialities
  • Mobile => e-readers etc. . . . IS IT? Paid content  advertising revenue
  • 02.11.10 US 241 Mio adults INDIA Internet users 61,3 Mio. = 8% Mobile Celular subscriptions 525,09 Mio. =68,3% Adult population 768.264 Mio.
  • Poland population
  • 02.11.10 IT’S NOT INTERNET OR MOBILE PHONE Abstract : we talk about consumption/reading on e-paper devices, tablets and smart phones we talk about every “intelligent” mobile device  For computing , the laptop is better For mobile consumption (like shorter snippets in a short time-frame, and whenever you like), the mobile phone is better. And for e-reading the e-reading device with its paper-like screen is better The tablet is a multi-usage device – like a Swiss army knife for media consumption… People tend to be very impressed by the Swiss army knife – but the dedicated products might do the better work. Be aware of what is hype and what is actually something that consumers will like in the long run Business models preferred  each company Infrastructure established TRY and ERROR
  • 1st attempt till 2007 major barrier to the mobile’s development unwillingness of consumers to do much other than use the phone as a phone and Internet access via the mobile has not taken off. 2nd step Iphone  revolutionise mobile internet use. convincing to access online content via the mobile device, opening up a vast new market that has long promised to develop but up to now has not delivered. And as we see form this chart, Iphone users are far more likely to ….. 3rd step Steve Jobs last week record figures 14.1 Mio I-Phones in last quarter + 91% year before US market research institute CHANGEWAVE published: 3rd mobile phone user (2nd in June 2010) plans to buy I-Phone Nielsen Analysts: Google mobile phone software Android ……. Apple phones as most sold platform in US Smartphone market in last year doubled. Number of multimedia mobile phones sold with Android system software tenfold Hardware and Software user friedlyness of competitors increased
  • 02.11.10

Transcript

  • 1. Christoph Riess CEO, WAN-IFRA [email_address] Ukrainian Newspaper Congress Kiev 29.10.2010 The future of media business Ukraine a Land of Opportunities
  • 2.
    • Ukraine economic and demografic situation
    • Media consumption:
      • How many people are reading news in the print, on-line, on the mobile?
    • Advertising expenditure by media
      • Where is the money going ?
    • Newspaper revenue
      • Is it content paid, advertising paid or digital revenue ?
    • Internet versus mobile phone
    © 2010 WAN-IFRA,
  • 3. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, The External Crisis – End of 2009 Real GDP Growth 2009 -20% -10% 0% -18% -15.1% -15% -14.1% -7.9% -7.1% -6.3% -4.9% -4.7% -3.6% -3% -2.4% -2.2% Latvia Ukraine Lettland Estonia Russia Romania Hungary United Kingdom Slovakia Austria Belgium United States France Source: CIA
  • 4. WIkipedia © 2010 WAN-IFRA,
  • 5. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Source: TNS Ukraine Media consumption Ukraine 2009 (minutes per day) 2006 2007 2008 2009 All Newspapers 22 42.8 39.5 34.2 Magazines 14 18.5 17.5 15.4 Radio 81 56.9 48.4 49 Television 145 88.5 85.9 88.3 Internet 7 10 16.4 21.2
  • 6. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Global Daily Newspaper Reach Paid and Free Circ. - WPT Global- Pop World Bank RPC - WPT 25.2% Ukraine Global reach daily newspapers
  • 7. PAID DAILIES, TOP 20 COUNTRIES BY POPULATION REACH (%) Paid dailies, Top 20 countries by population reach (%) © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Rank Country All adults % 1 Iceland 96 2 Japan 91.5 3 Norway 82 4 Sweden 82 5 Switzerland 81.7 6 Finland 80 7 Hong Kong 79.6 8 Singapore 78.3 9 Luxembourg 77.6 10 Austria 75 11 Denmark 74 12 Canada 73 13 Germany 71.4 14 Netherlands, The 68.1 15 Estonia 62.6 16 Israel 60.5 17 Korea, Republic of 58.5 18 Ireland 56.4 19 Malaysia 56 20 Poland 55.3 Ukraine 25.2
  • 8. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, ZENITHOPTIMEDIA JULY 10 Global advertising expenditure by media (USD million)
  • 9. Advertising expenditure per media (USD million) Ukraine © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Source: Ukrainian adCoalition, Cortex, ZenithOptimedia
  • 10. Global Advertising share trend ‘ Big Three’ © 2010 WAN-IFRA, 2009 ZENITHOPTIMEDIA JULY 10
  • 11. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Advertising share Ukraine „Big Three“ (in percent) Source: Ukrainian adCoalition, Cortex, ZenithOptimedia
  • 12. Global newspaper revenue by source (USD millions) © 2010 WAN-IFRA, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS GMEO 2005-2014, US $ MILLIONS PRINT ADVERTISING CIRCULATION REVENUE DIGITAL ADVERTISING Content paid model  digital advertising
  • 13. Ukraine Newspaper revenue by source © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Ukrainian Media Holding, Ria Media Corp., ZenithOptimedia Digital 4.6% Print 95.4 % 2012 PRINT ADVERTISING CIRCULATION REVENUE DIGITAL ADVERTISING
  • 14. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, Type of newspaper sales Source: UAPP
  • 15. Mobile vs internet opportunity +/- Lots of them and they are happy to pay for content! But no ads please (maybe) Established ad model but users will not (so far) –pay for content. Search engines dominate MOBILE PC / Internet © 2010 WAN-IFRA,
  • 16. © 2010 WAN-IFRA, WPT 2010 WPT 2010 Penetration (%) Mobile vs Internet Penetration
  • 17. © 2010 WAN-IFRA,
  • 18. Laptop & Mobile Tablet E-Reader ? ? Netbook e-book reader © 2010 WAN-IFRA,
  • 19. Mobile Content – Showing Signs of Fullfilling Early Promise
  • 20.
    • Economical situation and demographic background an opportunity?
    • Good educational base
    • Newspaper reach on average
    • Advertising for newspapers and Internet still to be developed
    • Newspaper subscriptions increase
    • Mobile and Internet penetration ready for opportunities
    © 2010 WAN-IFRA, The future of media business Ukraine a Land of Opportunities
  • 21. Thank you for your attention Christoph Riess CEO, WAN-IFRA [email_address]