Intoduction to E F F E C T


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    Boleh bertanya? Apakah komunitas Indonesia Low Carbon Development Forum baru terbentuk atau sudah sejak lama?
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Intoduction to E F F E C T

  1. 1. Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low- Carbon Growth in Developing Asia TA-7645 Tools to Help Transiting to a Low Carbon Economy INDONESIA LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT FORUM 11 – 12 October, 2012 Jakarta, Indonesia
  2. 2. Green GrowthInvolves agreeing on many cross-sector adaptation andmitigation measuresIs about generating an enabling environment (reinforceddevelopment planning, new policies, new markets)
  3. 3. Green Growth is first and foremost aboutDevelopmentNeeds to value all of the benefits:GHG Mitigation Climate ResilienceEnergy Security Economic growth and stabilityTrade Balance Job creation and skill setsInflation Quality of Life, etcAnd reach consensus amongst multiple stakeholders:Investment priorities and amountsEnabling policies, etc
  4. 4. To EFFECT Low Carbon Development Several tools are required to answer different questions Top-down Impact on Economic growth,Abatement opportunities Employment,Technologies Trade,Investments Production choices, etc.Additional costs Bottom-up
  5. 5. Model suite for low carbon growth assessment World Induced Technical Change Hybrid WITCH Integrated Assessment model Recursive dynamic CGE multicountry- ICES multisector model with international trade Energy Forecasting Framework and EFFECT Emissions Consensus Tool
  6. 6. What is EFFECT?• Developed by the World Bank originally for the India Low Carbon Growth Planning Study• Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model• Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy• Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels
  7. 7. Ribbon-based navigation, analysis and help
  8. 8. Easy to understand, adaptable, modifiable
  9. 9. Used previously by the World Bank and others inmany countries and citiesPower Sector – India, NigeriaTransport – 9 Cities and 7 countries: Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar India, Brazil ,Poland, Macedonia, Georgia, Nigeria, Basis for CTF measurement methodologyHousehold electricity – India, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, MacedoniaNonresidential and Industry – India, Macedonia
  10. 10. Current modules Land Transport Power IndustryHousehold Electricity Non-residential
  11. 11. EFFECT has been extensively customized by ADBspecifically for this regional TA• Modeling period extended to 2050• CO2 emissions factors and Net Calorific Values now comply with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines• Contains 45 technologies for power generation• New Investment Learning Curve Effect• Includes process and project contingencies• New MAC Curve drawing utility and results summary• Major improvement to vintaging calculations on all appliances• Additional Appliances and major changes to lighting energy forecasts• etc
  12. 12. How will EFFECT be used in TA-7645?Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low-Carbon Growth in Developing AsiaWork with Country Experts and Counterparts with:1 Objective:Facilitate transition towards low-carbon development2 Scenarios:Develop a “business-as-usual” reference scenario 2010-2050and low-carbon scenario taking into account suitable technology options inthe sectorsFeed into the CGE modeling effort3 Sectors:Household Electricity consumption, Land Transport, Power Generation5 countries:Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
  13. 13. Objective: Facilitate transition towards low-carbon development development and application of country-specific low-carbon growth modeling framework that is transparent, flexible, and user-friendly analysis to help create/update low-carbon roadmaps and provide input to development plans based on the framework training sessions and hands-on computer workshops to enhance the capacity of relevant agencies/institutions to maintain and utilize the models and associated database for planning purposes serve as a platform for experience sharing, policy dialogue and cooperation
  14. 14. Current Status with IndonesiaTransport,Household electricity consumption,Power generationModules are customized for Indonesia and alreadypopulated with initial baseline data for analysis anddiscussionTraining underway1st Workshop in Bangkok (March 2012)2nd Workshop in Jakarta (Oct 11-12, 2012)
  15. 15. To be EFFECTive this exercise needs strong localcommitment on Data and AssumptionsBottom-up modeling requires a lot of micro-level dataTo be useful, the data must be :  Detailed and good quality  Country-specific  Freely sharable  Recent and regularly updated  Final Goal: to be managed by the country in a data system This is a rigorous exercise that will help set the stage for measuring future achievements
  16. 16. Next StepsClose involvement with local counterparts to:1. Agree on historic data and cross-country comparisons used2. Agree specific additional data needs and define data collection plans3. Agree on assumptions to be used to 20504. Further training5. Possible uptake of the EFFECT model by a local institution
  17. 17. Thank You John Rogers