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CIMB Research - Nailing an urban redevelopment  project CIMB Research - Nailing an urban redevelopment project Document Transcript

  • QUICK TAKES 3 August 2011 MALAYSIACIMB Research Report Syariah-compliant stock OUTPERFORM MaintainedMah Sing Group Bhd RM2.44 Target: RM3.55Nailing an urban redevelopment project Mkt.Cap: RM2,029m/US$690m Property Devt & Invt MSGB MK / MAHS.KL Terence Wong CFA +60(3) 20849689 – terence.wong@cimb.com Second landbank acquisition in 2011 Mah Sing announced yesterday a 60:40 RM900m urban redevelopment JV on 4.08 acres of land in Kuala Lumpur. This purchase is in line with expectations as the group is still targeting to secure land with RM7bn GDV potential this year. We are encouraged by this acquisition as it will enhance earnings and should be the first in a series of landbanking deals for 2H. Taking into account this deal and an earlier acquisition in April, we raise our FY12-13 EPS forecasts by 8-15%, which increases our target price from RM3.30 to RM3.55, based on our target market P/E of 14.5x. Mah Sing remains an OUTPERFORM and our top pick in the property sector. This announcement could trigger a re-rating, along with 1) record sales from strong take-up of new large projects and 2) earnings upgrades for landbank acquisitions. The news Mah Sing announced yesterday a 60:40 joint venture to develop 4.08 acres of land along Jalan Tun Razak-Jalan Pahang. Formerly the site of the Pekeliling flats, the land which is owned by Asie Sdn Bhd is ready for immediate development as demolition works, soil investigations and partial earthworks have been completed. Mah Sing’s 60% share of the RM106.6m joint venture land (priced at RM600 psf) will be settled via RM64m cash. This is the first joint venture valued at RM900m GDV for Kuala Lumpur’s RM9bn 58-acre urban regeneration project. This project which will be named M Sentral will comprise, in addition to some retail units, smaller and more affordable serviced residences for which there is strong demand due to lower entry prices. There is also a provision for a skybridge to connect Mah Sing’s project to the rest of the 58-acre site. This is in line with the understanding that Mah Sing may be the JV partner for other parcels of the land subject to mutual agreement. The JV land and the balance of the 58 acres make up the largest privatised urban regeneration project in Kuala Lumpur. It will house residential and commercial properties, community, leisure, recreation and infrastructure facilities, together with five air rights in Precinct 2- Pekililing of the River Corridor Development under the Blue Corridor policy of the Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020. Comments The JV is in line with expectations and Mah Sing’s goal of acquiring at least RM7bn GDV worth of landbank in 2011. This is the group’s second purchase for this year. We expect newsflow on acquisitions to pick up pace in the coming months. Recall that in 2010, Mah Sing acquired 10 parcels of land with RM4bn GDV, most of which were bought in 2H. We take a positive view of yesterday’s acquisition as the purchase price of RM600 psf is fair for a project with such a high GDV and the location is strategic, being adjacent to a very busy ring road. Accessibility should be good as it is close to an integrated LRT and monorail station. Best of all, this JV could be the start of many more JVs with the land owner, i.e. Mah Sing may be able to participate in the entire urban regeneration project which is estimated to have a GDV of RM9bn. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
  • Figure 1: Mah Sing’s landbanking since 2010 Location Devlopment type Size Cost Cost GDV 2010 (acres) (RM m) (RM psf) (RM m) 1 Feb Cyberjaya Commercial 6.3 21.7 80.00 346 2 Feb Shah Alam, Selangor Industrial 19.2 45.5 54.45 167 3 Apr Jalan Ampang, KL Serviced Apt 1.4 54.0 857.00 306 4 Jul Kinrara, Puchong Mixed development 13.2 35.4 61.57 100 5 Jul Kinrara, Puchong Mixed development 125.8 178.4 32.56 730 6 Jul Bkt Jelutong, Shah Alam Industrial 11.0 31.9 67.00 82 7 Jul Section U5, Shah Alam Commercial 7.8 65.9 84.91 280 8 Nov Jalan Ampang, KL Residential 4.7 114.9 560.63 920 9 Nov Cyberjaya Residential 34.9 51.6 34.00 28010 Nov Batu Feringghi, Penang Residential 61.0 157.3 59.17 800 2011 1 Apr Johor Industrial 206.0 55.0 6.13 610 2 Aug Kuala Lumpur Serviced Apt 4.1 64.0 600.00 900Total 495.3 875.6 40.58 5,521Source: Company, CIMB ResearchMah Sing plans to launch small serviced apartments of 500 sq ft onwards priced at anaverage of around RM750 psf as units costing RM400k-1m should be very saleable. Itwill also have around 100 retail units measuring close to 1,500 sq ft each and priced atRM1,200 psf. Earthworks have already started and construction is expected to beginby 1H2012. The project will be launched by 1Q2012 and is expected to reap pretaxmargins of 25%.Figure 2: Joint venture landSource: Company, CIMB ResearchValuation and recommendationAfter factoring in contribution from yesterday’s joint venture and the April acquisition ofland in Johor for industrial development, we raise our FY12-13 EPS forecasts by 8-15%. Our target price, which is based on an unchanged target market P/E of 14.5x,rises from RM3.30 to RM3.55. We believe that newsflow on landbanking will pick uppace over the next few months, which should help catalyse the share price. Mah Singremains our top pick in the property sector. The recent share price pullback due tooverblown concerns over potential curbs on property speculation is an excellentopportunity to accumulate. Other potential re-rating catalysts include 1) record salesfrom strong take-up of new large projects and 2) earnings upgrades from newlandbank acquisitions. [ 2 ]
  • Financial summary FYE Dec 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Revenue (RM m) 701.6 1,110.1 1,511.8 1,994.3 2,443.2 EBITDA (RM m) 154.7 183.9 278.8 379.7 471.8 EBITDA margins (%) 22.1% 16.6% 18.4% 19.0% 19.3% Pretax profit (RM m) 144.2 177.9 262.0 354.2 446.5 Net profit (RM m) 94.3 118.1 170.3 230.3 288.5 EPS (sen) 13.6 14.2 20.5 27.7 34.7 EPS growth (%) (8.5%) 4.4% 44.2% 35.3% 25.3% P/E (x) 17.9 17.2 11.9 8.8 7.0 FD core EPS (sen) 13.6 14.2 18.1 24.2 30.1 FD core P/E (x) 17.9 17.2 13.5 10.1 8.1 Gross DPS (sen) 6.5 7.6 9.0 10.0 11.0Price chart Dividend yield (%) 2.7% 3.1% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% 1.80 P/BV (x) 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.42.8 1.60 ROE (%) 12.3% 13.4% 17.4% 20.6% 22.0%2.6 1.40 1.20 Net gearing (%) N/A 21.2% 42.4% 48.9% 27.5%2.42.2 1.00 0.80 Net cash per share (RM) 0.23 N/A N/A N/A N/A2.0 0.60 P/FCFE (x) 10.6 (62.8) 32.5 29.6 27.0 0.401.8 0.20 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 12.2 9.0 7.1 5.41.6 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 0.00 % change in EPS estimates - 8.2 14.9 Volume 10m (R.H.Scale) Mah Sing Group Bhd CIMB/Consensus (x) 1.11 1.14 1.11Source: Bloomberg Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg Figure 3: Revalued NAV Property type Location Area Price Stake Value (RM) (RM m) Aman Perdana Bukit Raja, Klang 41.3 ac 20.00 100% 36.0 Aman Perdana - commercial Bukit Raja, Klang 21.7 ac 80.00 100% 75.6 Sri Pulai Perdana Skudai, Johor 45.6 ac 12.00 100% 23.9 Sri Pulai Perdana - commercial Skudai, Johor 7.4 ac 70.00 100% 22.5 Sri Pulai Perdana 2 Skudai, Johor 27.6 ac 12.00 100% 14.4 Austin Perdana Tebrau, Johor 12.7 ac 12.00 100% 6.6 Austin Perdana - commercial Tebrau, Johor 20.3 ac 70.00 100% 61.8 Sierra Perdana Johor 98.7 ac 12.00 100% 51.6 Sierra Perdana - commercial Johor 52.3 ac 70.00 100% 159.4 One Residence Cheras, Selangor 9.9 ac 30.00 100% 12.9 Perdana Residence 2 Selayang 6.4 ac 20.00 100% 5.6 Hijauan Residence Cheras, Selangor 25.0 ac 20.00 100% 21.8 Icon-Mont Kiara Kuala Lumpur 2.6 ac 500.00 100% 56.0 Legenda Southbay Penang 28.0 ac 80.00 70% 68.3 Southbay - commercial Penang 33.0 ac 200.00 100% 287.7 Batu Feringghi Penang 61.0 ac 80.00 100% 212.6 Southgate Jln Sungei Besi 2.9 ac 600.00 100% 75.0 Icon Residence Georgetown, Penang 3.0 ac 300.00 100% 39.2 Garden Residence Cyberjaya 31.0 ac 40.00 100% 54.0 Commercial land Cyberjaya 6.3 ac 120.00 100% 32.9 Residential land Cyberjaya 34.9 ac 40.00 100% 60.8 Residential Selayang 26.1 ac 50.00 100% 56.8 PJ Commercial Hub Petaling Jaya 19.6 ac 500.00 100% 426.9 M Suites@Jalan Ampang Kuala Lumpur 1.4 ac 900.00 100% 56.1 M City, Jalan Ampang Kuala Lumpur 4.7 ac 600.00 100% 122.8 Kinara Kuala Lumpur 139.0 ac 40.00 100% 242.2 iParc 3@Bukit Jelutong Shah Alam 11.0 ac 67.00 100% 32.0 Section U5 Shah Alam 17.8 ac 100.00 100% 77.6 Fixed assets 58.4 Others 10.6 Net current assets less dev. prop. 35.0 Long term borrowings + payables (335.9) Total RNAV 2,161.1 RNAV/share (RM) 2.60 Fully diluted RNAV/share (RM) 2.52 Source: Company, CIMB estimates, Bloomberg [ 3 ]
  • Figure 4: Regional comparisons Target Core P/BV Div RNAV Disc/ BB Price price Mkt cap P/E (x) (x) yield (%) Prem. To ticker Recom. (Local) (Local) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2011 CY2011 RNAVSingaporeBukit Sembawang BS SP O 4.46 5.86 961 7.5 8.0 1.1 2.7 8.37 -47%CapitaLand CAPL SP O 2.86 3.62 10,162 16.2 14.8 0.8 2.1 4.83 -41%CMA CMA SP N 1.40 1.66 4,510 23.5 23.4 0.9 2.2 2.07 -33%City Devt CIT SP U 10.65 10.86 8,059 17.0 14.2 1.4 1.2 12.77 -17%F&N FNN SP O 6.07 7.34 7,112 14.7 12.1 1.3 4.3 8.15 -26%Ho Bee HOBEE SP O 1.41 1.87 850 8.4 9.3 0.6 1.5 2.50 -44%Keppel Land KPLD SP O 3.85 4.73 4,774 23.1 11.1 1.3 1.6 5.92 -35%OUE OUE SP O 2.87 3.93 2,345 21.1 17.2 0.9 2.4 4.63 -38%Singland SL SP O 6.96 10.22 2,389 15.7 15.2 0.7 2.9 12.02 -42%UOL UOL SP N 5.17 5.55 3,304 10.2 13.9 0.8 2.4 6.93 -25%Wheelock WP SP N 1.86 2.06 1,852 10.0 14.7 0.8 3.2 2.57 -28%Wing Tai WINGT SP O 1.49 1.93 981 5.9 7.0 0.6 3.4 2.57 -42%Simple average 14.4 13.4 0.9 2.5 -35%Hong Kong/ChinaAgile 3383 HK O 12.50 16.58 5,572 8.2 7.3 1.6 3.0 20.7 -40%China Overseas Land 688 HK O 17.58 21.55 18,441 11.5 10.2 2.2 1.7 21.6 -18%China Resources 1109 HK N 15.00 15.34 10,374 14.6 11.3 1.6 2.2 21.9 -32%Evergrande 3333 HK O 5.77 7.64 11,109 9.0 6.5 2.7 3.3 9.5 -40%R&F 2777 HK U 10.12 8.89 4,186 6.4 6.1 1.2 4.3 18.5 -45%KWG 1813 HK O 5.60 8.10 2,080 7.2 5.2 1.0 3.5 11.6 -52%Poly HK 119 HK N 5.51 6.00 2,552 11.4 8.9 0.9 2.6 13.2 -58%SOHO 410 HK O 7.13 8.60 4,748 24.4 7.4 1.7 4.4 - NAShimao Property 813 HK N 10.38 11.10 4,729 7.3 6.3 1.0 4.4 20.2 -49%Sino-Ocean 3377 HK N 4.27 4.60 3,106 7.5 5.9 0.6 3.3 10.3 -59%Simple average 10.8 7.5 1.5 3.3 -44%IndonesiaAlam Sutera ASRI IJ O 435.00 500.00 918 14.6 10.8 2.9 1.9 694.9 -37%Bakrieland ELTY IJ U 164.00 150.00 773 64.3 35.0 0.8 - 326.7 -50%BSD BSDE IJ O 1,050.00 1,250.00 2,171 24.4 17.7 2.7 0.4 1,741.5 -40%Ciputra CTRA IJ O 550.00 600.00 985 53.8 36.0 3.3 0.5 949.2 -42%Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ N 850.00 730.00 2,318 31.2 28.7 2.2 - 1,043.0 -19%Summarecon SMRA IJ N 1,270.00 1,300.00 1,031 29.2 21.9 3.7 0.8 1,855.2 -32%Simple average 36.2 25.0 2.6 0.6 -37%MalaysiaE&O EAST MK O 1.67 1.98 518 23.8 15.0 1.3 2.1 2.8 -40%KLCC Property KLCC MK U 3.35 3.03 1,063 15.2 13.4 0.5 4.5 5.2 -36%Mah Sing MSGB MK O 2.44 3.55 690 13.5 10.1 2.0 3.7 2.6 -4%SP Setia SPSB MK O 3.95 5.37 2,389 25.0 20.1 2.2 3.8 4.2 -5%UOAD UOAD MK O 2.13 3.25 866 10.3 8.5 1.5 5.3 2.7 -21%Simple average 18.2 13.4 1.7 3.7 -18%ThailandAsian Property AP TB O 6.00 6.90 569 8.5 6.9 1.5 4.7 - NALPN LPN TB O 11.30 13.80 561 8.0 7.0 2.3 6.2 - NALand And Houses LH TB TB 6.75 8.40 2,278 26.5 20.4 2.3 6.5 - NAPruksa Real Estate PS TB O 20.20 27.10 1,502 10.1 8.2 2.4 3.5 - NAQuality Houses QH TB U 1.89 2.11 539 11.4 9.2 1.1 6.1 - NASPALI SPALI TB O 13.50 16.80 780 7.4 6.4 2.0 5.9 - NASimple average 12.0 9.7 1.9 5.5 -Source: Company, CIMB estimates [ 4 ]
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1 * STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONSOUTPERFORM: The stocks total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.NEUTRAL: The stocks total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.UNDERPERFORM: The stocks total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,benchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.TRADING BUY: The stocks total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, isbenchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.TRADING SELL: The stocks total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,benchmarks total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months. * This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M) [ 6 ]
  • RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 ** STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONSOUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 12 months.NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe, has12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next 12 months.UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 12 months.TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 3 months.TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analysts coverage universe,3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 3 months. ** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons. [ 7 ]