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Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side
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Bentley University - Political Situation in Russia. View from the opposition side

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  • 1. SITUATION IN BRIEF BONAPARTIST POLITICAL REGIME POPULIST POWERED BY LARGE BUSINESSES AND SILOVIKI – SECURITY AND POLICE FORCES VISIBLY STRONG – IMAGE OF STABILITY, CONTRAST TO CHAOS OF 1990S RISING SALARIES AND PENSIONS BUDGET CRISIS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL GROWING SPLIT BETWEEN CENTER AND REGIONS STALLED ECONOMY (2013 GDP GROWTH 1.8%, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.5%) 68% OF BUSINESS PEOPLE EXPECT CRISIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE CONTINUED ALIENATION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS UNMANAGEABLE CORRUPTION DEFICIT OF QUALITY GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT NATIONALIZATION OF THE ELITES “GIVE EVERYTHING TO YOUR FRIENDS AND LAW TO YOUR ENEMIES”
  • 2. POLITICAL FORCES IN RUSSIA 4 PARLIAMENTARY POLITICAL PARTIES RULING PARTY (51%) – UNITED RUSSIA. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY NEOLIBERAL MAIN OPPOSITION (20%) – COMMUNIST PARTY. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY LEFT OPPOSITION – FAIR RUSSIA (SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC). POLITICALLY SWINGS, ECONOMICALLY LEFT POPULIST – LIBERAL-DEMOCRATIC. POLITICALLY ULTRA CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY SWINGS MAJOR NON-PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES RPR-PARNAS (REPUBLICAN – PEOPLE’S FREEDOM PARTY) – NEOLIBERAL NATIONAL-DEMOCRATIC PARTY – NATIONALISTS YABLOKO – LIBERAL CIVIL PLATFORM – NEOLIBERAL CLOUD OF FAKE POLITICAL PARTIES NAVALNY (PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE) – POPULIST, NATIONALIST, NEOLIBERAL
  • 3. HISTORY OF THE PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIBUREACRATIC PROTEST OF “UNITED DEMOCRATS” 1986-91 : PROMOTION OF YELTSYN, NATIONAL LIBERATION MOVEMENTS IN SOVIET REPUBLICS, CRASH OF THE USSR PROTEST AGAIN “SHOCK THERAPY” 1992-93 : SUPPRESSED BY MILITARY FORCES, SUPREME SOVIET SHOT BY TANKS, NEW CONSTITUTION PROTEST AGAINST INDUSTRIAL CRISIS «RAILWAY WARS» 1997-99 INSPIRED AND USED TO REDISTRIBUTE ASSETS BY NEW RUSSIAN BUSINESSMEN PROTEST AGAINST MONETIZATION OF PRIVILEGES 2005 SOCIAL SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES, «CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY» IS BEING FORMED PROTEST AGAINST ELECTION FRAUD 2011-12 BEGINNING OF OPEN CLASH BETWEEN EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS AND THE CONSERVATIVES
  • 4. MAJOR TENDENCIES NEW WAVE EACH 6 YEARS PROTEST IS INSPIRED BY A PARTICULAR EVENT, WHILE SOCIAL OR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE JUST PREREQUISITE EACH WAVE IS BEING USED BY A CERTAIN ELITE GROUP FOR ACHIEVING ITS OWN AGENDA, QUITE FAR FROM THE PROTESTERS’ DEMANDS
  • 5. CURRENT PROTEST ENVIRONMENT FOUR TYPES OF PROTEST: POLITICAL PROTEST (CAPITALS) SOCIAL (MAJOR CITIES) PROTEST AGAINST LOCAL PROBLEMS (SMALL TOWNS, RURAL AREAS, LABOR UNIONS) ETHNICAL PROTEST
  • 6. SPECIFICS OF THE NEW PROTEST ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE NEW POSTINDUSTRIAL CLASS TERMS «MIDDLE» OR «CREATIVE CLASS» ARE MISGUIDING IN MOSCOW ~25-35% OF THE POPULATION, IN MAJOR CITIES ~5-10% DOMINATED BY YOUNG, SUCCESSFUL AND FORMERLY APOLITICAL PEOPLE WOKEN BY THE «SWAP» ON SEPTEMBER, 24TH 2011 AND THE FOLLOWING ELECTIONS TEND TO BE NEOLIBERAL OR EVEN LIBERTARIAN FUELED BY ANTIGOVERNMENT PROTEST – ANTI-CORRUPTION AND HUMAN RIGHTS DOES NOT CREATE POLITICAL STRUCTURES INFANTILE, CONSIDERS ITS OWN PROBLEMS UNIVERSAL LITTLE INTEREST TO THE PROBLEMS OF «COMMON PEOPLE» ACTIVELY CREATES VIRTUAL NETWORKS AND ANONYMOUS GROUPS
  • 7. MAJOR OBJECTIVES UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED DEMANDS: POLITICAL REFORM AND FREE ELECTIONS FREEDOM OF SPEECH FIGHT WITH THE CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRACY JUDICIAL REFORM AND RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS DEMANDS SUPPORTED BY MAJORITY: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND SHIFT TOWARDS PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC DEMANDS OF THE LEFT: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS
  • 8. CITY MOVEMENT POLITICAL STRUCTURE INITIALLY COALITION OF 4 FACTIONS: NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS, NATIONALISTS AND “APOLITICAL” CIVIL GROUPS IN MOSCOW IN 2012 - ~50% NEOLIBERALS, 35% LEFTISTS, 15% NATIONALISTS CAUTIOUS SUPPORT FROM TRADITIONAL PARTIES (FAIR RUSSIA, YABLOKO, COMMUNISTS, CIVIL PLATFORM) AS PROTESTS BECAME MORE RADICAL, LEFTISTS GAINED SUPPORT, MAXIMUM IN MAY 2012 STREET RIOTS ON MAY 6TH, 2012 DURING MAY 2012 – OCCUPY MOSCOW MOVEMENT, DOMINATED BY LEFTISTS FALL 2012 – “COORDINATION COUNCIL OF THE OPPOSITION” ESTABLISHED QUASI-PARLIAMENT DOMINATED BY NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS OPPOSED SPLIT WITH TRADITIONAL PARTIES “APOLITICAL” VOLUNTEERS MOVEMENT, WHICH GREW OUT OCCUPY MOVEMENT DURING FLOODING IN KRYMSK, ABSTAINED END 2012 – BEGINNING OF REPRESSIONS, LEFT FRONT LEADERS ARRESTED SUMMER 2013 – MAYORAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MOSCOW, NETWORK-TYPE COALITION REFORMED INTO AUTHORITARIAN POPULIST MOVEMENT UNDER LEADERSHIP OF ALEXEY NAVALNY
  • 9. NEW PROTEST VS “TRADITIONAL” POLITICAL PARTIES TRADITIONAL PARTIES ARE DEPENDENT ON ELECTION RESULTS, WHILE NEW PROTEST MOVEMENT FUELS ELECTORAL SCEPTICISM TURNOUT ON LOCAL ELECTIONS FELT TO 10-15% CONSERVATIVES AND AUTHORITIES GAIN ADVANTAGE TYPICAL VOTER TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND LEFT-LEANING CITY MOVEMENT WHICH PROTECTS PUSSY RIOT, LGBT RIGHTS, WITH LIBERTARIAN VIEWS AND RELATIVELY HIGH INCOME OF PARTICIPANTS ALIENATE PEOPLE SEVERAL COUNTER-STRATEGIES WERE SUCCESSFULLY IMPLEMENTED BY KREMLIN: DUMA FACTIONS UNITED AROUND IDEAS WITH WIDE POPULAR APPEAL, BUT INACCEPTABLE FOR STREET OPPOSITION (FOREIGN ADOPTION ACT, LIMITATION OF INTERNET FREEDOM, “GAY PROPAGANDA” ACT) LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION COMPROMISED WITH FAKED CRIMINAL CASES AND CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY IN FAVOR OF FOREIGN NATIONS MASSMEDIA HIGHLIGHTED AS MAIN DEMAND OF THE OPPOSITION CALL FOR POLITICAL REFORMS, WHICH IS LOW ON PEOPLE’S PRIORITY LIST NONE OF TRADITIONAL PARTIES WANT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEW PROTESTERS, WHICH INCREASES GAP BETWEEN POLITICIANS AND OPINION LEADERS EVEN MORE
  • 10. FORECAST PROTEST TENDENCIES IN RUSSIA WILL GROW UNDER THE SURFACE, VISIBLE ONLY IN MOSCOW IN MOSCOW IN 2014 WILL BE VERY COMPETITIVE RACE FOR MOSCOW CITY COUNCIL, BUT OPPOSITION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CLAIM MAJORITY OF SEATS, BECAUSE OF INABILITY TO FORM COALITION ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND GROWING BUDGET CRISIS CAN SPARKLE LOCAL CONFLICTS AND INSPIRE SEPARATIST AND ANTI-MOSCOW TENDENCIES AUTHORITIES WILL ATTEMPT TO INTEGRATE SOME OF VISIBLE PROTESTERS INTO THE SYSTEM (LIKE IN NY MEMBERS OF OCCUPY MOVEMENT), BUT MOST LIKELY TOO LATE KEY SUCCESS FACTOR FOR THE OPPOSITION WILL BE POSSIBILITY TO CLAIM VICTORIES ON REGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL LEVELS
  • 11. CONCLUSIONS option 1 – REVOLUTION option 2 – step-by-step reform of the political system: 1. Demonstration of good will and possibility of positive changes using free and transparent elections: admission of new leaders to a real executive power at the regional and municipal levels, support of regional pluralism and real federalism within “one country – multiple models” approach 2. 3. Reform of traditional political parties 4. Fostering entrepreneurship, international exchange and joint projects, creation of safe ways of self-fulfillment of young generation 5. «Peace treaty»: amnesty to political prisoners and no more power plays and police actions on the streets, ensuring freedom of assembly Support for network initiative of civil society: volunteers, anticorruption initiative; abandoning creation of fake “pocket” movements

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