050401 War In Chechnya In The Eyes Of Russians

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050401 War In Chechnya In The Eyes Of Russians

  1. 1. War in Chechnya in the eyes of Russians Ilya Ponomarev, April 2005
  2. 2. History of the conflict <ul><li>1817 – beginning of Chechen-Russian conflict, gen. Ermolov troops enter Chechnya </li></ul><ul><li>1860 – conflict settled; imam Shamil honored by Tsar Alexander II </li></ul><ul><li>1918-1920 – Chechen troops are fighting for bolsheviks </li></ul><ul><li>1922 – Chechnya becomes autonomy inside Russian Federation </li></ul><ul><li>1944 – Chechens deportation under Stalin’s order </li></ul><ul><li>1957 – Chechens allowed to come back </li></ul><ul><li>1990 – declaration of sovereignty </li></ul><ul><li>1991 – Dudaev becomes Chechen leader; de-facto separation of Chechnya from Russia, Rutskoy ultimatum fails, Russian military withdrawn </li></ul><ul><li>1994 – Russia-sponsored Chechen opposition tries to replace Dudaev and fails </li></ul><ul><li>1994 – beginning of first war, Russian tanks attack Grozny </li></ul><ul><li>1996 – Dudaev killed, Yandarbiev acting president </li></ul><ul><li>1996 – gen. Lebed, using Russian oligarch Berezovsky as mediator, signes peace treaty in Khasavyurt </li></ul><ul><li>1997 – Maskhadov elected Chechen President </li></ul><ul><li>1999 – invasion of Basaev troops to Dagestan, terrorists attacks in Moscow and other cities, beginning of second war </li></ul><ul><li>2000 – Putin selects Akhmad Kadyrov to become a new Chechen leader </li></ul><ul><li>2002 – Nord-Ost hostages crisis </li></ul><ul><li>2003 – Kadyrov writes new Constitution and becomes Chechen President </li></ul><ul><li>2004 – Kadyrov assassinated, Alkhanov becomes new President </li></ul><ul><li>2004 – Beslan </li></ul><ul><li>2005 – Maskhadov killed near Grozny </li></ul>
  3. 3. First War (1994-1996) <ul><li>Disapproval was high from the very beginning: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Was not considered to be a war, just reckless action by an unpredictable and unpopular president </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Critics both from left and right, total opposition by media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Associations with Afganistan affair </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many military defeats during campaign </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Boasts by gen. Grachev turned into heavy casualties </li></ul></ul></ul>
  4. 4. First War (1994-1996) What do you think of the decision for Russian troops to enter Chechnya? FOM (www.fom.ru), January 1995
  5. 5. First War (1994-1996) What do you think is most important – peace in Chechnya or Russia’s integrity? FOM (www.fom.ru), November 1996
  6. 6. First War (1994-1996) Do you approve Eltsyn’s decision to withdraw troops from Chechnya? FOM (www.fom.ru), November 1996
  7. 7. First War (1994-1996) How did your attitude towards general Lebed changed after signing peace agreement? FOM (www.fom.ru), September 1996
  8. 8. Second War (1999-???) <ul><li>High popular support: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand to restore national dignity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retaliation for previous defeats and for terrorist attacks in Russian cities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Chechens are considered to be « absolute evil » </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High hopes that order can be restored and security achieved </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public opinion consolidated around Putin – uncompromised, young, energetic and visibly strong politician who promised to solve the problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relatively low mortality in the army during first months of campaigning, military successes </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Second War (1999-???) How does war in Chechnya affects Putin’s ratings? FOM (www.fom.ru), June 2001
  10. 10. Second War (1999-???) How will decision to start peace negotiations affect your opinion about Putin? FOM (www.fom.ru), March 2000
  11. 11. Second War (1999-???) Worst events of year 2000 FOM (www.fom.ru), December 2000
  12. 12. Second War (1999-???) Personal Putin’s failures in 2000 FOM (www.fom.ru), December 2000
  13. 13. Second War (1999-???) <ul><li>War turned to be different as people hoped and started to resemble first campaign: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nord-Ost and especially Beslan delivered shock to the nation: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Using force was authorized by president, because otherwise negotiations with Maskhadov would become imminent </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kadyrov appeared to be a corrupt tyrant and obvious criminal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>His assassination on Victory Day 2004 demonstrated zero control by military over the situation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contradictions between declarations of Putin and reality became obvious </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Second War (1999-???) What would be the consequences of the conflict in Chechnya? VCIOM (www.wciom.ru), March 2001
  15. 15. Second War (1999-???) How you can characterize current situation in Chechnya? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005
  16. 16. Second War (1999-???) Do you think Russian authorities can achieve their objectives in Chechnya? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), April 2004
  17. 17. Second War (1999-???) How will the Chechen presidential elections affect situation in the republic? ROMIR (www.romir.ru), August 2004
  18. 18. Second War (1999-???) Do you approve government actions in Chechnya? ROMIR (www.romir.ru), August 2004
  19. 19. Second War (1999-???) <ul><li>Current situation: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>There is no publicly recognized solution to the problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Idea of independence unpopular both among Russians and Chechens </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Putin afraid of possible international prosecution after his resignation, but cannot lose face </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Human rights activists and Western foundations are compromised in the eyes of Russians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maskhadov believed to be killed under secret deal between Putin and Bush </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attitude towards Chechens slightly better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>People worries start to shift from fears of national conflict towards fears of country disintegration and rise of separatism and extremism </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maskadov’s death did not seriously changed attitude towards the war </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic issues become more important </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Second War (1999-???) How do you see future of Chechnya? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005
  21. 21. Maskhadov death What do you feel about Maskhadov been killed? FOM (www.fom.ru), March 2005
  22. 22. Maskhadov death How Maskhadov’s death will affect the situation in Chechnya? FOM (www.fom.ru), March 2005
  23. 23. Maskhadov death How Maskhadov’s death will affect the level of resistance in Chechnya? FOM (www.fom.ru), March 2005
  24. 24. Attitude towards Chechens Are Chechens the same people as Russians and have the same amount of civil rights? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), December 2003
  25. 25. Attitude towards Chechens Do you hate Chechens? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), December 2003
  26. 26. Attitude towards Chechens Are you afraid of Chechens? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), December 2003
  27. 27. Attitude towards Chechens How shall we treat Chechens? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), December 2003
  28. 28. Public opinion on terrorist attacks How would you assess the probability of new terrorist attacks? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005
  29. 29. Public opinion on terrorist attacks Who is responsible for terrorist attacks in Russian cities? NBP (www.nbp-info.ru), October 2004, Urals region
  30. 30. Public opinion on terrorist attacks What to do in case of new taking hostages? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005
  31. 31. Public opinion on terrorist attacks What do you think about proposal of Attorney General to take terrorists relatives as hostages? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005
  32. 32. What to do? What shall Russia do now in Chechnya? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), January 2005 Nord-Ost terrorist attack
  33. 33. What to do? What should government do in Chechnya? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), October 2003
  34. 34. What to do? Can the government solve the problem of Chechen conflict? FOM (www.fom.ru), March 2005
  35. 35. Importance of Chechnya conflict in Russian politics What are the major problems in your life? Levada-Center (www.levada.ru), December 2004 Putin elected
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