Stat - Global Pulses Conclave

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Stat - Global Pulses Conclave by Mr. Brian Clancey at the Pulses Conclave 2014 by India Pulse & Grains Association, IPGA

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  • Africa – salesman 1 – situation horrible – Africans don’t wear shoesSalesman 2 – situation fantastic – Africans don’t own shoes
  • Stat - Global Pulses Conclave

    1. 1. Global Pulses Conclave — 2014 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM
    2. 2. Price Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
    3. 3. Bulk vs. Container Freight Graph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc. Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting www.statpub.com
    4. 4. Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9 (million metric tons) 25 20 15 All Peas Wheat Canola 10 5 0 www.statpub.com
    5. 5. Price Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
    6. 6. Major Pulse Currencies (2004 = 100) Rupee weakens faster www.statpub.com
    7. 7. Canadian Red Lentils (per metric ton track Vancouver) Weak Rupee www.statpub.com
    8. 8. Canada Yellow Peas (per metric ton delivered Vancouver) Weak Rupee www.statpub.com
    9. 9. Canadian Yellow Pea Price (grower versus export price) Weak Dollar www.statpub.com
    10. 10. Outside Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
    11. 11. Competition For Acres (2004 = 100) Pulses Less Competitive www.statpub.com
    12. 12. Pulse Index as % of Grains (2004 = 100) World pulse area jumped 15% in 2010 www.statpub.com
    13. 13. Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds (2004 = 100) Pulse area fell 21% in export countries in 2011 www.statpub.com
    14. 14. 2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
    15. 15. World Pulse Production (million metric tons) Exporters India Other 2014-15 9.9 18.6 22.0 2009-13 9.9 17.3 22.4 2006-10 9.1 14.9 21.9 2001-05 8.5 12.9 20.7 1996-2000 8.7 13.8 18.0 1991-95 7.1 13.4 20.7 www.statpub.com
    16. 16. World Pulse Production (percent share of total) Exporters India Other 2014-15 20% 40% 40% 2010-14 20% 37% 43% 2005-09 20% 32% 48% 2000-04 21% 31% 48% 1995-99 20% 35% 45% 1990-94 16% 31% 53% www.statpub.com
    17. 17. 2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
    18. 18. World Pea Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013 2014 Canada 3,217,800 3,849,000 3,301,000 Russia 1,580,400 1,684,000 2,197,000 France 686,600 533,000 575,000 United States 578,000 709,000 729,000 Australia 356,400 342,000 334,000 10,268,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 World The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
    19. 19. World Pea Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average Area (hectares) Production Carry-in Supply Trade Inferred Use Ending Stock Stock-Use Ratio 2013-14 2014-15 6,600,000 7,020,000 7,170,000 10,490,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 680,000 370,000 820,000 11,180,000 11,532,000 11,984,000 4,030,000 4,420,000 4,580,000 10,440,000 10,712,000 11,304,000 730,000 820,000 680,000 7% 8% 6% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
    20. 20. World Lentil Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013 2014 256,600 253,000 264,000 1,705,600 1,881,000 1,766,000 United States 268,000 228,000 193,000 Turkey 378,400 300,000 463,000 Other 1,696,200 1,149,000 1,371,000 World 4,304,800 3,811,000 4,057,000 Australia Canada The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
    21. 21. World Lentil Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 4,090,000 3,808,000 3,725,000 Production 4,300,000 3,811,000 4,057,000 580,000 373,000 245,000 Supply 4,880,000 4,184,000 4,302,000 Trade 2,170,000 2,438,000 2,246,000 Inferred Use 4,280,000 3,939,000 4,009,000 600,000 245,000 293,000 14% 6% 7% Carry-in Ending Stock Stock-Use Ratio The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
    22. 22. 2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
    23. 23. World Dry Bean Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average China 2013 2014 1,437,000 1,312,000 1,736,000 264,600 96,000 294,000 Brazil 3,263,400 3,311,000 3,180,000 Mexico 2,418,000 2,537,000 2,583,000 United States 4,550,200 4,800,000 4,627,000 23,247,800 23,107,000 23,773,000 Argentina World The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
    24. 24. World Bean Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 29,250,000 29,074,000 29,652,000 Production 23,250,000 23,107,000 23,773,000 820,000 505,000 612,000 24,070,000 23,612,000 24,385,000 4,260,000 3,913,000 4,386,000 23,280,000 23,000,000 23,583,000 790,000 612,000 802,000 4% 2% 3% Carry-in Supply Trade Inferred Use Ending Stock Stock-Use Ratio The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
    25. 25. World Chickpea Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013-14 2014-15 Kabuli India 502,000 515,000 438,000 Turkey 563,000 325,000 390,000 Mexico 132,000 195,000 135,000 All Kabuli 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Desi 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13 www.statpub.com
    26. 26. World Kabuli Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 1,943,000 1,878,000 1,826,000 Production 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 193,000 361,000 369,000 2,165,000 2,248,000 2,227,000 420,000 504,000 465,000 1,928,000 1,879,000 1,976,000 238,000 369,000 251,000 12% 20% 13% Carry-in Supply Trade Inferred Use Ending Stock Stock-Use Ratio The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
    27. 27. World Desi Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average Area (hectares) Production Carry-in Supply Trade Inferred Use Ending Stock Stock-Use Ratio 2013-14 2014-15 10,666,000 11,410,000 12,218,000 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 76,000 4,000 56,000 9,576,000 10,808,000 11,531,000 868,000 392,000 224,000 9,514,000 10,752,000 11,472,000 62,000 56,000 59,000 1% 1% 1% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
    28. 28. Conclusions • General increase in pulse area • Stronger weather events • India leading increase in output www.statpub.com

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