Chana crop scenario India - 2013 14

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Chana crop scenario India - 2013 14 as presented by Mr. Nirav Desai of GGN Research at The Pulses Conclave 2014, Goa organized by India Pulses & Grains Association (IPGA)

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Chana crop scenario India - 2013 14

  1. 1. Chana Crop Scenario 2013-2014 States where data was collected : Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh &Karnataka, Submitted by : Mr. Nirav Desai GGN Research Co.
  2. 2. About US • Provide Research on Agro • Member of all Exchanges Commodities. NCDEX – MCX – ACE • Do Crop Surveys, Warehouse • An Agro Commodity stock survey, gather specialist for Futures. statistical data, Demand & • In touch with Physical Supply Analysis etc. markets, import line ups, • Also give reports on national crop situation & Arrivals & international market happenings.
  3. 3. Weather Analysis • Good Rains in Oct ensured almost ideal conditions for sowing Rabi crops. • Also this increased the overall acreage of both wheat & Chana. • These rains maintained the Chana acreage which could have reduced due to lower price realization.
  4. 4. • No major precipitation in December. • January had some aggressive spell of rains for a short period which was beneficial for late sown crops while deteriorated for early sown crop’s yields. • There were complaints of fog in January in western MP.
  5. 5. Observations Madhya Pradesh Average to poor crop in Malwa Belt • Chana acreage in Malwa & Nearby Districts have fallen as compared to last year as farmers have shifted to wheat due to poor returns in Chana both due to low prices and lower yield due to extreme winters last year. • As this year there was very good rainfall the farmer had a clear inclination for wheat. • Kabuli (Dollar) Chana is majorly grown in this area. The acreage and yield of Kabuli chana is down significantly this year. We expect a significant fall in supply of Kabuli in MP.
  6. 6. Average to Good crop of North M.P. • • • • Chana acreage in North & East MP (Major districts: Sagar, Ashoknagar, Guna, Raisen, Vidisha etc.) has increased slightly due to good rainfall, farms which were left vacant last year were also cultivated. So some acreage loss in Malwa which is been compensated by slight area increase from N.E. MP. Keeping the area unchanged . Losses in Yield in Malwa are overtaken by gains in N E MP and all MP yields are up by 2%. Hence production of M.P. this year is higher by 2%.
  7. 7. Maharashtra • Maharashtra is the “Game Changer” this year. • The Acreage has increased by 350k hectare (27%) mainly coming from cotton and Jowar & Arhar (Tur). • As in Kharif(Summer Crop) Soybeans captured a big acreage from cotton, the natural alternative crop for the same farmer was chana in Rabi(Winter Crop). • The yields in Mah. have been overall up by 6%. • Hence Maharashtra’s Chana crop is up by 35% (325 kmt). Rajasthan • • Chana Acreage in Rajasthan is higher by 16% than last year Due to good rainfall land which were left vacant last year has chana sown. • Yields are down by 4% in Rajasthan. Major losses are in Bikaner and nearby districts but yields in Ganganagar are and other parts of Rajasthan are up. So production in Rajasthan is higher by 11%. •
  8. 8. Govt. Acreage ? States M. P. Raj Mah Kar A. P. U. P. Others Total • • • • GGN Estimates Govt Estimates 3350 3482 1675 1747 1650 1737 975 1014 575 605 475 622 920 917 9620 10124 Absl Change 132 72 87 39 30 147 -3 504 How can area of nearly all crops increase when we do not have lot of scope of new land? Clear differences in areas in Rajasthan, M.P. where area has increased but not to the extend estimated by the govt? We have done a districtwise study specially in M.P. U.P. has a clear shift from Chana & Masur to Peas.
  9. 9. All India STATE WISE AREA, YIELD & PRODUCTION OF CHANA CROP IN ALL INDIA Estimated Area (Thousand Ha.) S ta tes 2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 0 1 3 -1 4 AREA AREA AREA Estimated Yield (Kg/Ha.) C hange (% ) 2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 0 1 3 -1 4 Y IE L D Y IE L D Y IE L D Estimated Production (Thousand MT.) C hange (% ) 2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 0 1 3 -1 4 PROD. PROD. PROD. C hange C hange (A b sl) (% ) Madhya Pradesh 3044 3350 3360 0.3% 750 750 765 2% 2282 2511 2572 61 2% Rajasthan 1428 1450 1675 16% 565 655 627 -4% 807 950 1050 100 11% Maharashtra 1066 1300 1650 27% 693 715 760 6% 739 930 1255 325 35% Karnataka 860 1158 980 -15% 587 613 675 10% 505 710 662 -48 -7% Andhra Pradesh 575 700 580 -17% 543 571 600 5% 312 400 348 -52 -13% Uttar Pradesh 830 600 475 -21% 500 550 550 0% 415 330 261 -69 -21% Others 970 900 917 2% 500 500 550 10% 485 450 504 54 12% All India 8773 9458 9637 2% 632 664 690 4% 5545 6281 6652 371 6%
  10. 10. All India STATE WISE PRODUCTION OF CHANA CROP IN ALL INDIA Estimated Production (Thousand MT.) States 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 PROD. PROD. PROD. M. P. 2280 2510 2570 Raj 805 950 1050 Mah 740 930 1255 Kar 505 710 660 A. P. 310 400 350 U. P. 415 330 260 Others 485 450 505 All India 5545 6280 6650 Change (Absl) 60 100 325 -50 -50 -70 55 370 Change (%) 2% 11% 34% -6% -12% -21% 12% 6%
  11. 11. Supply Situation in Last 3 Years Year Opening Stock Crop Total supply Sowing Marketabl Req e Surplus In Lac MT Import Available Cls Stock for Consmp 2012 1 54 55 -7 48 4 1 51 2013 1 63 64 -8 56 2 2 56 2014 2 67 69 -8 61 2 3 60
  12. 12. Thanks www.ggnresearch.com

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